Marc Lawrence
San Francisco sends Noah Lowry to the hill against Arizona's Doug Davis knowing Lowry's home ERA (2.61) is more than two runs better per game than his road ERA (4.66) this season. With Davis in horrible current form, look for the Giants to drill the Diamondbacks here this evening.
PICK: San Francisco Giants
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins
Reason: I'm laying a rare price with the Braves on Saturday. After a fantastic start to the season, Tim Hudson hit a rough patch. But he looks to be getting back to form as of late. In his last three outings, the Atlanta righty has allowed just five earned runs and 20 base runners in 19 2/3 IP. That's a strong, 2.28 ERA & 1.02 WHIP to go along with a healthy, 12-to-2 K/BB ratio. Hudson owns good evening numbers and he has had no trouble at all in his career against the Marlins. The veteran hurler is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 10 starts against the Fish, including a 3-0, 2.53 mark at this venue. He'll likely get plenty of support tonight. The Braves average 5.9 RPG in road night games against right-handers. They'll face Kim, who has a 6.14 ERA in 13 appearances against Atlanta. Making matters worse for the Marlins is that they only score 3.8 RPG in home night tilts against righties. Look for the Braves to hand the Marlins a second straight loss in this weekend set.
PICK: Atlanta Braves
Thanks! GL! Scott.
Vegas Experts
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Look for the Tigers to bounce back big. They had won 14-of-22 here from the Twins before last night. Poor power hitting Twins figure to be searching for runs tonight vs. southpaw Aaron Miller after scoring 11 last night. GARDENHIRE is 15-39 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of MINNESOTA. LEYLAND is 46-19 against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game as the manager of DETROIT.
PICK: Detroit
Brandon Lang
15 Dime
San Francisco Giants
10 Dime
Detroit Tigers -1- runs
5 Dimes
LA Angels
St Louis Cardinals
Trev Rogers
Cardinals +105
Cubs +106
Blue Jays -139
Rangers/Red Sox Over 10
Rockies/Astros Under 9
Hondo
HONDO
June 30, 2007 -- The Law of Averages came through for Hondo and the Yankees, who hung on last night in El Bronx to reduce the debt to 45 messersmiths.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will throw some coin at Penny - 10 units on the Dodgers.
Handicapper World
Braves @ Marlins
Hudson vs Kim
Pick: Braves -150 (Game of the Week)
Padres @ Dodgers
Peavy vs Penny
Pick: Padres +135
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO (-130)
In this battle of left handers, we're going with the Giants and Noah Lowry (7-6, 3.61 ERA) in this one to continue the home dominance over the D'Backs in this one.
Lowry is 6-1 in San Francisco this season with a 2.61 ERA and last time he pitched at home was Sunday when he allowed one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings in a 7-2 win over the Yankees. Lowry and the Giants have won five straight games against Arizona dating back to his 2005 starts. Since 2005 he has held the D'Backs to three or less runs on five of six outings.
On the mound for Arizona is lefty Doug Davis (5-8, 4.16 ERA). He's been bad on the road, posting a 2-6 mark this season. He's given up four runs or more in three of his last four starts. Davis has seen the Giants twice this season with a win and loss to his credit. In San Francisco he allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings in a 4-2 loss.
In a series so dominated by the home team, no way we're going against the Giants in this one. Play Lowry to shut down the D'Backs in this one.
2? SAN FRANCISCO
Sports Gambling Hotline
San Diego (-110) at LOS ANGELES
Tonight we fully expect the Peavy-Penny matchup at Chavez Ravine to live up to its billing and produce an UNDER in easy fashion.
This is a rather low total, but there is no other way you can go, as both Peavy and Penny have been stingy about giving up runs this season.
Jake Peavy is 4-0 on the road this year with an ERA of 0.88!
Brad Penny is 4-0 at home this year with an ERA of 1.38!
Those two stats alone are enough for us to jump all over a pitchers duel tonight, but also consider last night snapped a string of 6 straight UNDERS for San Diego.
We see a ton of circles on the Dodger Stadium scoreboard tonight, as the Padres and Dodgers stay UNDER the posted total.
4? UNDER
Karl Garrett
Colorado (-115) at HOUSTON
Tonight I think the Rockies losing streak is going to finally come to a halt!
Colorado was stunned last night in the bottom of the ninth, as the Rockies losing streak is now at 8 in a row. Look for the skid to end tonight as Jeff Francis is a tough southpaw, and I think he has a gem lined up for tonight's start.
Francis did struggle his last time out, but that was at the unpredictable Wrigley Field where he gave up 6 runs in a 5 inning no decision. Prior to that start, Francis had shut down both the Red Sox and the Yankees. Hey, if you can hold those two potent offenses at bay, I certainly think you can keep the Houston attack in check.
Jennings counters with just a 1-2 mark for the year, and I am thinking after last night's setback, the Rockies should be in an ornery mood this evening when they hit the field.
I am going with Colorado in this one.
1? COLORADO
Dave Cokin
Take "(906) PHI Phillies"
One of my favorite takes is with debuting southpaws. Lefties that haven't been seen frequently present tough looks to even the best hitters and I'm looking for the angle to hold up Saturday as the Phillies host the Mets. Off the doubleheader defeat Friday, the home team needs this one badly, which means pressure for rookie J.A. Happ. But I like the Northwestern product to fool the Mets with his outstanding changeup and hold them at bay here. Jorge Sosa has been an asset to the Mets staff this season, but I'll try to beat him here. The Phillies at plus money are the selection
Jim Feist
Take "(905) NY Mets"
A tough spot for the young Phillies pitcher against this powerful NY offense. Lefthander J.A. Happ, who will start against the Mets, will be the sixth Phillies pitcher to make his major-league debut this season. The others were Joe Bisenius, Yoel Hernandez, Kyle Kendrick, Zack Segovia and Mike Zagurski. NY is 20-14 on the road and getting its offense going. Starter Jorge Sosa (3.79 ERA) has been strong and is 2-1 lifetime against the Phillies with a 3.03 ERA. Play the Mets!
Saturday Horse Racing Spot Picks-Previews
SPOT PLAYS
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (3rd) Its Bailey's Time, 4-1
(8th) Book the Bullet, 6-1
Belmont Park (5th) Redefined, 4-1
(6th) Seastate, 5-1
Calder Race Course (1st) Go Fly a Kite, 3-1
(2nd) Blue Pepsi Lodge, 6-1
Canterbury Park (5th) Dinner Magic, 4-1
(8th) Unreal General, 4-1
Charles Town (2nd) Jen Jen, 5-1
(4th) Merci Please, 5-1
Churchill Downs (3rd) Cat and a Half, 8-1
(4th) Leos Gal, 3-1
Colonial Downs (5th) Cryptogram, 5-1
(9th) Clare to Here, 4-1
Delaware Park (7th) City Weekend, 6-1
(10th) Dreamm Diva, 3-1
Emerald Downs (1st) Sarah Mac, 7-2
(3rd) Galer Gardens, 3-1
Evangeline Downs (1st) Miss Dylan, 8-1
(4th) White Star, 6-1
Finger Lakes (7th) Trust Nobody, 3-1
(9th) Run Mikey Run, 5-1
Great Lakes Downs (7th) Touch of Magic, 9-2
(8th) Asp, 4-1
Hastings Park (4th) Saanichton, 9-2
(6th) Tappen to Time, 6-1
Hollywood Park (6th) Smart Hit, 9-2
(8th) Just Knock, 3-1
Indiana Downs (7th) Pagoda, 3-1
(9th) Moody Mama, 10-1
Lone Star Park (7th) Decidedly Taken, 7-2
(8th) Not in my House, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (8th) Best of the West, 7-2
(9th) Our Story, 4-1
Monmouth Park (3rd) Elite Miss, 7-2
(6th) Private War, 5-1
Mountaineer (7th) Point of Attack, 3-1
(9th) Storm Cave, 8-1
Northlands (6th) Mandi Tambi, 7-2
(7th) Cowher Power, 3-1
Philadelphia Park (6th) Custom Cruiser, 9-2
(7th) Bold Clover, 3-1
Prairie Meadows (3rd) Holiday Hustle, 7-2
(9th) Shamrock Shark, 3-1
River Downs (5th) Hammer Down Hank, 4-1
(7th) M and Em, 5-1
Suffolk Downs (8th) Golden Gator, 7-2
(9th) Three D Alycat, 3-1
Thistledown (4th) Izzies Rose, 7-2
(6th) Sidoslew, 8-1
Woodbine (8th) Aint No Cure, 3-1
(10th) Hoping for Glory, 4-1
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
HOLLYWOOD GOLD CUP S. (G1), 10TH-HOL, $750,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/4M, 4:50 P.M. PDT, 6-30
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 MY CREED HESS R B BAZE R A 117
2 A. P. XCELLENT SHIRREFFS JOHN SMITH M E 115
3 SAINT STEPHEN CECIL B D A VALDIVIA J JR 115
4 PORFIDO (CHI) FRANKEL ROBERT J ROSARIO JOEL 112
5 MOLENGAO (BRZ) LOBO PAULO H ESPINOZA V 120
6 WILKO DOLLASE CRAIG TALAMO JOSEPH 115
7 A. P. ARROW PLETCHER TODD A FLORES D R 116
8 LAVA MAN O'NEILL DOUG NAKATANI C S 124
9 BIG BOOSTER MITCHELL MIKE BAZE M C 113
LAVA MAN (Slew City Slew) will seek a rare three-peat in Saturday's $750,000 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) -- Native Diver (1965-67) is the only previous horse to sweep three consecutive runnings -- but circumstances have changed in this year's 1 1/4-mile contest. The last two Gold Cups were held on dirt, but Cushion Track is in place for the 2007 edition. The six-year-old gelding will attempt to snap a two-race losing skein while making his synthetic track debut, and we'll try to beat him.
A. P. XCELLENT (A.P. Indy) is our top pick. A Cushion Track specialist, the John Shirreffs-trained colt reeled off three straight wins at Hollywood before suffering his first setback in the June 2 Californian S. (G2). He still finished a game third behind Buzzards Bay (Marco Bay) last time, beaten 1 1/2 lengths after dueling on the front end most of the way, and his pace challenger that afternoon, Grade 1 winner Kip Deville (Kipling), retreated badly from his early exploits. A. P. Xcellent looks like the lone speed on Saturday.
A maiden winner in mid-November, the four-year-old was no factor when trying graded stakes company on dirt and turf earlier this year, but he gained valuable seasoning while showing good class in the Californian. We expect him to move forward off that effort, and A. P. Xcellent won't have any trouble with the 10-furlong distance. He also receives nine pounds from the favorite under a 115-pound impost. Mike Smith should be able to nurse his mount's speed along through slow fractions, and A. P. Xcellent will have to be caught.
MOLENGAO (Brz) (Royal Academy) is a top contender. Winner of the San Antonio H. (G2) on dirt in early February, he recorded a fast-closing second to Lava Man in the Santa Anita H. (G1) in early March. Freshened until the May 5 Mervyn LeRoy H. (G2), the six-year-old horse made a splendid impression over the Cushion Track, rolling from off the pace to a 4 1/2-length decision. He earned his third consecutive 103 BRIS Speed rating last time, and the Paulo Lobo trainee has never been better. Molengao is a threat to run past all of his rivals in the stretch.
Lava Man had a nine-race win skein in Southern California snapped when finishing second in the grassy Charles Whittingham Memorial H. (G1) last out, and he turned in a dreadful performance when last of 16 in the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-G1) two starts back at Nad al Sheba. The veteran gelding is showing signs that he could be losing a step, and he may prove vulnerable over a new surface following a difficult campaign this year. Trainer Doug O'Neill, who is vacationing in Ireland, won't be on hand for the Gold Cup, and Lava Man will be the heavy favorite. We'll take a stand against the 124-pound highweight.
PORFIDO (Chi) (Mash One [Chi]) looms as an intriguing entrant for Bobby Frankel. A multiple Group 1 winner in his homeland, the multiple Chilean champion made his U.S. debut last summer without much success, recording four straight unplaced finishes in 2006. He hasn't shown a lot more this year, but the five-year-old experienced a troubled trip last time when fifth in the Whittingham and might be rounding into form for his Hall of Fame conditioner. Porfido has raced strictly on turf in the United States, but turf horses often make a seamless transition to the synthetic surfaces. The late runner could pick up the pieces for a minor award.
A. P. ARROW (A.P. Indy) has shipped west for Todd Pletcher off a non-threatening third in the Birdstone S. at Belmont Park, and the Grade 3 winner is a bit of a plodder. He didn't make much of an impact in his lone previous attempt over a synthetic track, finishing fourth as the favorite in the Fayette S. (G3) last October, but A. P. Arrow does get part often. He figures to sit a good trip stalking the pace with his tactical speed, and a top-three placing isn't out of the question for the five-year-old.
BIG BOOSTER (Accelerator) failed to hit the board in three straight claiming starts before breaking through in his synthetic debut last time, winning an allowance/optional claiming event at Hollywood. An affinity for the surface is often more important than class when dealing with the synthetic surfaces, but Big Booster is facing a stiff class hike here. Still, we can't completely dismiss him from exotics consideration. SAINT STEPHEN (Saint Ballado) ran well over the Cushion Track in December, defeating Molengao in the Native Diver H. (G3), but he hasn't been the same performer since then, dropping starts in Florida and Kentucky prior to a dull sixth in the Californian. He's been transferred to Ben Cecil for this appearance, but we can't recommend Saint Stephen's chances based on his recent form.
Grade 1 hero WILKO (Awesome Again) hasn't won since 2004, and he exits a dull seventh in the Californian. It's difficult to imagine him suddenly turning things around here. MY CREED (Beau Genius) exits a three-length win in the Berkeley S. (G3) at Golden Gate Fields. Russell Baze will accompany the Northern California shipper, but My Creed doesn't look fast enough to challenge in his first start past nine furlongs.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-A. P. XCELLENT
2nd-MOLENGAO (Brz)
3rd-LAVA MAN
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
SUBURBAN H. (G1), 9TH-BEL, $400,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/4M, 5:15 P.M. EDT, 6-30
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 POLITICAL FORCE JERKENS H ALLEN VELASQUEZ CORNE 116
2 HESANOLDSALT ZITO NICHOLAS P COA E M 117
3 MALIBU MOONSHINE LAUDATI KIM HILL C 114
4 CORINTHIAN JERKENS JAMES A DESORMEAUX K J 119
5 FAIRBANKS PLETCHER TODD A MIGLIORE R 116
6 EVENING ATTIRE KELLY PATRICK J PRADO E S 114
Saturday's $400,000 Suburban H. (G1) took a major hit when Invasor (Arg) was retired due to injury. That left CORINTHIAN (Pulpit) as the horse to beat, but 10 furlongs remains a question for the four-year-old colt. We'll select FAIRBANKS (Giant's Causeway) for a minor upset.
Fairbanks broke his maiden at Belmont Park last summer and then captured an allowance/optional claiming event by nine lengths at Saratoga. Both wins came in front-running fashion, but the Todd Pletcher trainee made only one more appearance in 2006. He returned to the races this year at Gulfstream, turning in a scintillating performance to win a nine-furlong allowance by 3 1/2 lengths, and shipped west for the San Antonio H. (G2) in early February. Sent off the 5-2 second choice, the four-year-old colt lost all chance when stumbling at the start, but Fairbanks remained in California and made his next appearance in the Tokyo City Cup H. (G3) at Santa Anita in late March. After getting out of the gate in fine order, the bay colt crushed his rivals on the front end, winning by 6 3/4 lengths while registering 109 BRIS Speed and Late Pace ratings.
Fairbanks could very easily find himself unopposed on the front end Saturday, and the 91-day rest isn't a concern since he runs well fresh. He's also got the pedigree to easily handle 10 furlongs. Fairbanks has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, and we'll look for him to deliver his first Grade 1 tally with a wire-to-wire score.
Corinthian won't allow the speed to get too far away from him, recording 105 and 104 BRIS E2 Pace numbers in his last two outings, and his Speed figures are outstanding. He turned in a huge effort last time, winning the Met Mile (G1) in an authoritative manner by three-quarters of a length, but the four-year-old will have to negotiate an extra quarter-mile on Saturday. Corinthian showed signs of vulnerability in the 1 3/16-mile Gulfstream Park H. (G2) earlier this year, squandering a clear lead in midstretch to win by a neck, and the Suburban will likely determine whether trainer James Jerkens pursues the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) this fall or targets the inaugural $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. We feel he's probably better suited toward the latter, but Corinthian remains a threat to run down the pacesetter based strictly on talent.
HESANOLDSALT (Broad Brush) owns seconds from all five starts this year, including a runner-up finish behind Invasor in the Donn H. (G1), and netted a 111 Speed rating for his narrow bridesmaid effort to Flashy Bull (Holy Bull) in the William Donald Schaefer H. (G3) two starts back. That rival captured the Stephen Foster H. (G1) next out. Hesanoldsalt acts like the type who will run all day, and the Nick Zito charge remains a candidate to break through at this level eventually. However, he wasn't particularly sharp when returning to Belmont in the Birdstone S. last out, finishing five lengths back of the winner, and we can't endorse his win chances here.
EVENING ATTIRE (Black Tie Affair [Ire]) won't be anywhere near the front during the early stages, and the veteran gelding appears to have lost a step at age nine, finishing fourth in his last four outings versus stakes rivals. Winner of the 2002 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), the Pat Kelly charge will need to summon some back class to get involved on Saturday, and we'd love to see him finish up strong for a minor award.
POLITICAL FORCE (Unbridled's Song) took advantage of a wicked pace duel when closing for second in the Met Mile, but the pace scenario will be completely different here and the added ground looks disadvantageous. MALIBU MOONSHINE (Malibu Moon) likes a route of ground, but he probably needs an easier spot to be effective.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-FAIRBANKS
2nd-CORINTHIAN
3rd-HESANOLDSALT
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
MOTHER GOOSE S. (G1), 8TH-BEL, $250,000, 3YO, F, 1 1/8M, 4:43 P.M. EDT, 6-30
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 OCTAVE PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 121
2 BOLD ASSURANCE HENNIG MARK GOMEZ G K 121
3 LADY JOANNE NAFZGER CARL A BOREL C H 121
4 BOCA GRANDE MCGAUGHEY CLAUDE III CASTELLANO J J 121
A small field of four has been entered in Saturday's $250,000 Mother Goose S. (G1) at Belmont Park, and OCTAVE (Unbridled's Song) is the one to beat in the nine-furlong test. The Todd Pletcher-trained gray was last seen running second to eventual Belmont S. (G1) winner Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy) in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), a race that has since produced stakes winners in Dreaming of Anna (Rahy), Tough Tiz's Sis (Tiznow), Cotton Blossom (Broken Vow) and Sealy Hill (Point Given). Octave could continue that trend here with John Velazquez returning to the saddle, but we're going with LADY JOANNE (Orientate) to continue a win streak of her own.
The Carl Nafzger-trained miss has suffered just one loss since breaking her maiden last October, that coming as a third in the Pocahontas S. (G3) at Churchill Downs. She returned on that track to conclude her campaign with a victory in the Golden Rod S. (G2), and many were already naming her a major player for the Kentucky Oaks. Nafzger didn't rush his filly, though, bringing her back slowly to make her 2007 bow a 1 1/4-length score in an allowance under the Twin Spires on May 1. She returned to the stakes ranks last out to post a nice victory in the Dogwood Breeders' Cup (G3), denying Oaks runner High Again (High Yield) a next-out win. Lady Joanne will be making her first start outside of Kentucky in this spot, but based on how much care her conditioner has taken thus far, she wouldn't be in this spot if she wasn't ready. Calvin Borel has the call, and the pair could make it three in a row on Saturday.
Octave will be attempting to break a case of seconditis that has lasted for her past five races. A Grade 2 winner from her juvenile season, she's so far been runner-up in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Ashland S. (G1) and aforementioned Kentucky Oaks this year. The three-year-old filly earned a 104 BRIS Speed rating as well as a 105 BRIS Late Pace figure for her last try, and has experience on Belmont's dirt, finishing second in the Astoria S. and Matron S. (G1) last season. Octave has been given time to recover from the Kentucky Oaks and could be primed for a big effort, but is listed at 3-5 on the morning line. She probably won't break even-money on race day, so we'll go against in hopes of getting a little value. John Velazquez has the return call.
Multiple Grade 2 victress BOCA GRANDE (A.P. Indy) is exiting a fourth to Cotton Blossom in the Acorn S. (G1), but was returning off a slight layoff in that mile test and could show more here. The Shug McGaughey charge broke her maiden on Belmont's surface in October, scoring a front-running 5 1/4-length victory, before ending her juvenile campaign by adding the Demoiselle S. (G2) to her record. She didn't do so well in her return in the Forward Gal S. (G2) off the break, but stepped back up to take the Comely S. (G2) in her second start of the year. Boca Grande probably needed her last one and is our pick to fill out the trifecta under Javier Castellano.
BOLD ASSURANCE (Stormy Atlantic) is guaranteed to pick up a $12,500 check in this spot and might even earn a graded placing if Boca Grande falters for any reason. Considering she hasn't been able to keep up when facing just stakes rivals in her past two races, the Mark Hennig trainee has no other reason for being in this race.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-LADY JOANNE
2nd-OCTAVE
3rd-BOCA GRANDE
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
AMERICAN INVITATIONAL H. (G2), 5TH-HOL, $250,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/8MT, 2:06 P.M. PDT, 6-30
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 BECRUX (ITY) DRYSDALE NEIL FLORES D R 118
2 LANG FIELD SHERMAN ART COURT J K 114
3 THE TIN MAN MANDELLA RICHARD E ESPINOZA V 123
4 WILLOW O WISP CERIN VLADIMIR TALAMO JOSEPH 117
5 RIGHT SPECIAL (BRZ) LOBO PAULO H BLANC B 117
6 OUT OF CONTROL (BRZ) FRANKEL ROBERT J BAZE M C 113
7 FAST AND FURIOUS (FR) MCANALLY RONALD SOLIS A 114
THE TIN MAN (Affirmed) towers over his opposition in Saturday's $250,000 American Invitational H. (G2). The nine-year-old gelding returned off an eight-month layoff in superb form in the May 28 Shoemaker Breeders' Cup Mile S. (G1), rating just off the pace before seizing command at the top of the stretch, and he'll use this nine-furlong event as his final prep for the Arlington Million (G1) on August 11. Unbeaten in six U.S. starts since 2004, the Richard Mandella trainee appeared as good as ever in the Shoemaker, earning a strong 102 BRIS Late Pace rating, and his recent worktab looks very encouraging. The Tin Man captured last year's American, and we expect a repeat performance.
BECRUX (Ity) (Glen Jordan) has the best chance at an upset. Winner of last year's Woodbine Mile (Can-G1), he has the back class to pose a threat and the pace should set up for him, with fellow contestants LANG FIELD (Langfuhr) and WILLOW O WISP (Misnomer) being confirmed front runners. Becrux hasn't flattered himself since the Woodbine Mile in mid-September, recording three consecutive unplaced finishes under the tutelage of Neil Drysdale, but his fourth-place effort in the Shoemaker did offer some hope. After rating off a moderate pace, he rallied willingly to finish fourth, only a length back of The Tin Man, and netted his first triple-digit Late Pace number (104) of the year. The five-year-old gelding hasn't proven very effective past a mile, but Becrux figures to be making some headway in the stretch in this spot.
RIGHT SPECIAL (Brz) (Special Nash [Ire]) is eligible to keep showing more in his third start stateside, and he's displayed a solid late kick so far this season, registering Late Pace numbers of 113 and 107. The five-year-old probably isn't good enough right now to challenge for the upset, but he owns exotics potential at long odds. We'll tab the improving Paulo Lobo charge for a minor award.
FAST AND FURIOUS (Fr) (Singspiel [Ire]) has some class concerns in this spot, but the late-running Ron McAnally pupil can't be completely dismissed in his third start off the layoff. He ran decently in his first start back this year, finishing third to Right Special in an allowance, and was hurt by a slow pace last time in the Shoemaker. The pace scenario figures to be much different here, and Fast and Furious could get involved late for a small share.
Willow O Wisp has been the first-call leader in his last six starts, but a speedball rival to his inside could end that string. The Vladimir Cerin runner will probably be prompting the pace in second under Joseph Talamo on Saturday, and the gelding exits a commendable third-place showing in the Shoemaker in which he was beaten only three parts of a length. A multiple Grade 2 winner, Willow O Wisp always keeps top company and appears to be doing well presently. We won't be surprised to see him hold for another top three placing.
OUT OF CONTROL (Brz) (Vettori) exits a promising allowance triumph for Bobby Frankel, but we're going to give the lightly raced South American import a race against stakes rivals in the United States. Lang Field will likely face too much pressure to be effective.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-THE TIN MAN
2nd-BECRUX (Ity)
3rd-RIGHT SPECIAL (Brz)
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
FIRECRACKER H. (G2), 10TH-CD, $250,000, 3YO/UP, 1MT, 5:51 P.M. EDT, 6-30
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 REMARKABLE NEWS (VEN) PENNA ANGEL JR DOMINGUEZ R A 122
2 HOLD THE SALT DODGEN JAMES A HERNANDEZ B J J 112
3 FREE THINKING DANNER DOUG CASTANON J L 114
4 BRILLIANT HOWARD NEIL J GUIDRY M 121
5 OBI WAN KENOBI BROTHERS FRANK L THERIOT H J II 115
6 VEGA'S LORD (GER) DRYSDALE NEIL ALBARADO R J 116
7 CRESTED (GB) DOLLASE WALLACE BRIDGMOHAN S X 115
8 OUTPERFORMANCE VIOLETTE RICHARD JR BEJARANO R 115
9 TIGANELLO (GER) PLETCHER TODD A LEPAROUX JULIEN 115
Saturday's $250,000 Firecracker H. (G2), contested over a grassy mile at Churchill Downs, has attracted an intriguing field of nine. REMARKABLE NEWS (Ven) (Chayim) has the best resume, and BRILLIANT (War Chant) rates as the course specialist, but the pair will be spotting significant weight to their opponents while shouldering 122 and 121 pounds, respectively. The most dangerous beneficiary could be OUTPERFORMANCE (Aptitude), who gets in with just 115 pounds and could be a real overlay at an enticing 6-1 on the morning line.
Trained by Richard Violette, Outperformance was among the top tier of three-year-olds on the turf last year. He captured the 2006 Hill Prince S. (G3), chased Showing Up (Strategic Mission) in the Jamaica Breeders' Cup H. (G2), and was a nightmare-trip fourth in the Commonwealth Turf S. at Churchill in November. After finishing a rapidly closing fourth in an allowance in his four-year-old bow at Keeneland, he was one of several who were compromised in the spill-marred Dixie S. (G2) at Pimlico last time out. Despite steadying to avoid a stricken rival, Outperformance closed boldly for third, beaten a total of 3 1/2 lengths by the unhindered Remarkable News. The bay should get an honest pace here, routinely posts gaudy BRIS Late Pace numbers, loves the distance (3-2-1-0), and enters in excellent form, having fired a bullet work at Aqueduct on June 21. Outperformance should come rolling in the stretch with new pilot Rafael Bejarano.
Remarkable News turned in an outstanding effort to take the Dixie, recording a career-best 108 BRIS Speed figure, and he has an excellent lifetime mark (14-8-3-1). The Angel Penna Jr. charge deserves respect as a multiple Grade 2 winner, but he could be vulnerable because of the weight as well as likely pace pressure. Remarkable News won't go down without a fight, however, and the classy chestnut rates as the horse to beat beneath a returning Ramon Dominguez.
Brilliant is exiting a heart-breaking loss in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (G1), his only setback from four starts on the Churchill lawn. The Neil Howard pupil struck the front in the stretch and was just caught in the last stride of that nine-furlong contest on Kentucky Derby Day. Always a serious threat on his home course, Brilliant landed the Jefferson Cup S. (G2) here last season, and prior to that, he won both of his outings at a mile in allowance company. We're slightly concerned, though, partly because of his disadvantage at the weights in this spot, but also because of a recent high white blood cell count. After that hiccup, Howard accelerated his training schedule to play catch-up. Although we wouldn't be surprised if the master horseman pulls off a coup, the uncertainty is enough to put us off the 2-1 favorite on the morning line. Mark Guidry will be back in the irons.
VEGA'S LORD (Ger) (Lord of Men) ships in from California for Neil Drysdale. Two starts back, the four-year-old missed by a nose in the San Francisco Mile S. (G2), and a repeat of that performance would make him an exotics player here. His most recent start, a ninth in the Shoemaker Breeders' Cup Mile S. (G1), is a complete throw-out, considering that he bled from his mouth. Vega's Lord is another who will appreciate a legitimate pace up front. Robby Albarado picks up the mount.
The Frank Brothers-trained OBI WAN KENOBI (Skywalker) will likely be an early pace factor. The dark bay was no match for Brilliant last year, but he could be on the upgrade at present, reeling off back-to-back scores at Churchill. He'll get a real class check on Saturday. TIGANELLO (Ger) (Acatenango), who represents the powerful Todd Pletcher barn, has lured Julien Leparoux into the saddle. His connections are more compelling than his form and his Speed figures, and he could be overbet. This is a much tougher group than the one he dismissed in workmanlike fashion in the Mister Gus S. at Arlington Park last time out.
CRESTED (GB) (Fantastic Light) is capable of a fine effort on occasion, as evidenced by his strong second in the Dallas Turf Cup H. (G3) on Memorial Day. The Wally Dollase pupil is two-for-two versus lesser at Churchill, but he's yet to hit the board in four starts at a mile. FREE THINKING (Unbridled) was a terrific second in the 2006 Firecracker, but he hasn't run up to that level in his three starts so far this year.
HOLD THE SALT (Salt Lake), who promises to be on or near the early lead, looks ambitiously spotted.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-OUTPERFORMANCE
2nd-REMARKABLE NEWS (Ven)
3rd-BRILLIANT
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Louisiana Downs
Louisiana Downs - Race #3 - Post: 2:25pm
Rating: 4
Choice Plays:
#2 FURIOUS COLTON (ML=5/1)
#6 TENAHA JOE (ML=5/2)
FURIOUS COLTON - Early zip is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Louisiana Downs last time around the track. That contest had an Equibase class figure of 86 and he is moving down right here. A certain serious competitor. TENAHA JOE - This gelding is in good form. Ended up first on Jun 10th. The jockey/trainer tandem of Saenz and Ciavaglia has a strong return on investment together. This gelding is in the top spot in EPS (earnings per start). Check out this thoroughbred in the saddling enclosure.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 GENERAL'S ORDERS (ML=3/1), #5 GOOD OFFER (ML=3/1), #7 PRINCE OF STORMS (ML=8/1)
GENERAL'S ORDERS - I just don't possess a good vibe about this racer in this race. GOOD OFFER - This sustainer will probably be closing much too late to make an impression in this race. PRINCE OF STORMS - No pace in this race to help this sustainer's efforts. This mount ran a mediocre speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - TENAHA JOE - This gelding is stepping up with each event. He has shown a notable points increase in his speed ratings over his last two races.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 FURIOUS COLTON to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6]
__________________
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Saturday, June 30
RACE ONE
This year's Hollywood Gold Cup day is a tribute to tough, older campaigners, with 9-year-old The Tin Man heading the American Handicap and 6-year-old Lava Man trying to win the Gold Cup for the third consecutive year. So it's only fitting that 11-time winner EPIC POWER start the day with a victory. The hard-trying gelding, now six, is fresh from an ultra-game victory in the Khaled Handicap, accomplished at a trip slightly longer than he prefers. He now moves back to a mile, where he's won nearly half his starts. SUPER STRUT was among 'EPIC's victims in the Khaled, but was less than a length back. He takes his usual blinkers off. JACK'S WILD was out of his element in the Californian, but traded decisions with the top one earlier in the year.
RACE TWO
SLAM SLEW's biggest obstacle will be drawing in off the also eligible list. The Richard Mandella trainee ran a dynamite race first time out, battling through fast early fractions before being edged by the promising Salute the Sarge. If the top one doesn't make the starting lineup, $350,000 first times starter DRILL DOWN rates the call. The El Corrdor colt has been impressive in his morning activity and will be piloted by leading rider Michael Baze. BANANA BOAT JOE moved forward in his second start to get within two lengths of the top pick.
RACE THREE
MINISTER BLAIR ran the race of his life last time out. He quickly took command, was never challenged, then drew away in the stretch while running the last quarter in a blistering 22 4/5. If he can run anywhere near that effort, he'll be extremely difficult to beat. HEATSEEKER is a Bobby Frankel, Joe Talamo production. He was right there in his last pair and is nearing his first United States victory. GEM PROOF is a gem of consistency. Though winless this year, 'GEM has been in the money eight of his nine starts with several narrow misses.
RACE FOUR
TIME TOSAY GOODBYE ran super despite being run down late by Theverythoughtof U. That was 'GOODBYE's first race in 7 1-2 months, so the effort was even more noteworthy. KALAMATA was only a nose back of the top pick. If she can somehow duplicate that race, she could turn the tables. EXCESSIVEOBSESSION won three straight last summer before finishing second to Callmeluckylucy. She only has five works showing, so she may need a race.
RACE FIVE
Nobody told THE TIN MAN that he's not supposed to win three consecutive Grade I races at his age. A real fan favorite, THE TIN MAN squashed the naysayers in his last start by capturing the Shoemaker Mile at a distance that was supposed to be too short for him. He hasn't missed a beat since that race, working three times in the interim. WILLOW O'WISP couldn't quite hold off 'TIN in the Shoemaker, but is slowly racing himself into shape. His speed must be respected. BECRUX also competed in the Shoemaker, finishing a willing fourth. The main knock is that he's never won at this distance.
RACE SIX
ARROYO TRABUCO couldn't quite hold on in his first two-turn try, so he moves back to a sprint. He looks to be the controlling speed and should take this field all the way under his regular rider Jose Valdivia. SMART HIT missed by a neck in his last start but hasn't been seen since February. The fact that he returns in a spot where he can't be claimed is a positive sign. WARREN'S PEPE won a dog fight to break his maiden and was claimed out of the race by northern California kingpin Jerry Hollendorfer.
RACE SEVEN
ELOCUTION, from the powerful Steve Asmussen arsenal, ships west after a pair of sterling races in Kentucky. She graduated first time out at Keeneland, then was a close second in a very fast race at Churchill Downs. She appears to tower over the local contingent. TREADMILL won at first asking for Craig Dollas, defeating next-out winner Expect Valkyr. Her stalking style should play well in her first start against winners. BILLIE BOB took maidens wire to wire in her first California appearance. Trainer Wesley Ward has had a remarkable year with his juveniles.
RACE EIGHT
JUST KNOCK was given a breather after losing twice as the favorite. During the freshening, let's hope that Frankel has found a way to right the ship. INCREDIBLE was a sharp third in her first start on the Hollywood Park lawn. She'll need some luck from the extreme outside post. POLO LOUNGE was absolutely flying in the stretch but came up a neck short. Look out if this one ever learns to leave the gate with the rest of the field.
RACE NINE
ONLY IN RENO lost a photo after more than two years on the sidelines and is now ready to pose for pictures. This one always had loads of talent, but has had to deal with physical problems. Two strong half-mile moves since the race indicate he came out of the race in good order. BLOWOUT gave Peace Chant a battle at Santa Anita, losing by a length in a very fast race. Three months off since the race is a bit of a concern, though. KAPALUA BAY showed ability in two starts last year. Ron Ellis can get horses ready to fire off a layoff, so look out.
RACE TEN
The 68th running of the Hollywood Gold Cup begins and ends with LAVA MAN. One of the greatest California breds in history, LAVA MAN will be attempting to match Native Diver's accomplishment of three straight Gold Cup victories. Though the only chink in LAVA MAN's armor has been racing outside his native state, his ability to bounce back from failed travels is storied. Like last year, LAVA MAN used the Whittingham Handicap as a tuneup for the Gold Cup. MOLENGAO has quietly become a force this year and has the best chance of knocking LAVA MAN off his pedestal. MOLENGAO's romping victory in the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap puts him right on edge. A.P ARROW ships in from the east coast for powerhouse trainer Todd Pletcher. He captured the Skip Away Handicap at Gulfstream Park earlier in the year and was second in the 2005 Super Derby in Louisiana.
RACE ELEVEN
AWESOME FEAT was late on the scene for the place in her initial start June 9. With that race under her belt and Espinoza back in the saddle, expect a smasher from the daughter of Awesome Again. ANCIENT TALE finished behind 'FEAT, but did all the dirty working battling on the front end. She, too will benefit from the experience. JEN'S NEW CHAPTER chased the talented Glorified here opening week but hasn't been seen since. She's got the ability, but some gaps in her work tab are a concern.
Best Bet-MINISTER BLAIR (3)
__________________
CALDER
Race 1 -
6 MAUVAIS' COYOTE looks strong when dropping to the $5K level on the dirt after hitting the board in 3 of 5 sprints vs. better on the turf. 5 GO FLY A KITE will try and make it two wins in a row after responding to a drop in competition with a victory at this level and distance. 4 ORIENTAL BEAUTY, second to Go Fly A Kite at this distance on May 26, stretches out after finishing fourth behind similar at 6 furlongs.
6-5-4
Race 2 -
2 BLUE PEPSI LODGE will try to win on the turf for the first time after responding to a drop in competition with a victory vs. $25K claimers on a sealed track listed as 'good'. 3 NOT ACCLAIM, a 6-time turf winner, which includes a stakes-placed performance at the distance on May 12, shifts back to the grass after finishing a well-meant second vs. similar on the main track. 8 CALL ME PETE, another from trainer Kirk Ziadie (Not Acclaim), drops to a level where he dueled throughout and held sway to notch his third turf victory (May 28) from five local turf starts (5-3-0-1). 6 WORLD WAR, third behind Not Acclaim on the dirt last out, must be respected on either surface.
2-3-8-6
Race 3 -
5 CLOSING NUMBER should be ready to score after finishing a willing second vs. $32K maidens at this distance last out. 3 B L'S TSUMANI drops and turns back with blinkers added after dueling for the lead and tiring vs. special weight competition at 5 1/2 furlongs on a 'good' track. 2 MS B'S SNUCK IN is stretching out around 1-turn after dueling throughout and getting beat three-quarters of a length vs. $32K maidens at 2 furlongs in the slop.
5-3-2
Race 4 -
7 DEAD RED is stretching out around 2-turns after hitting the board in 3 of 7 races vs. some of the best turf sprinters in South Florida. Note that the son of Out Of Place has the pedigree needed to handle 7 1/2 furlongs. 9 BLACK SNAKE, a $260K son of More Than Ready, who is 8-2-1-1 on the turf, hopes to return to the grass after showing little sprinting in the slop last out. 8 BARGAIN BARRY proved he could win here on the turf when he used his tactical speed to defeat this caliber of competition on Apr. 25. 2 ZENFULLY, 5 for 8 in the money on the turf, which includes a $25K "two-lifetime" score here at the distance (May 19), hopes to compete on the grass after showing early interest and stopping on the dirt.
7-9-8-2
Race 5 -
8 CALASON gets the call after finishing a much-improved second - at this level and distance - on a sealed 'fast' track last out. 4 HARDTOBEAT BOB is stretching out slightly after closing well on a sealed 'sloppy' track to finish second vs. similar at a mile & 70 yards. 1 MANOLO MANOLO stretches out a mile and a sixteenth after making a middle move and fading to finish fourth behind Hardtobeat Bob last out.
8-4-1
Race 6 -
1A CHRISSY'S HONOR, in an entry with 1 ARCH NEMESIS , turns back to 7 1/2 furlongs after leading every step of the way to defeat $25K "two-lifetime" claimers at a mile and a sixteenth on a 'good' turf. 4 CHELLY B moves into the winners bracket after stalking early and drawing clear late to defeat $32K maidens on a 'good' turf. 8 AVIANO merits respect - especially if it rains - after drawing off to defeat $40K maidens on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 2 TILT MY HORNS beaten only 2 lengths on the turf vs. multiple winners on May 31, hopes to return to the lawn after chasing the pace and fading on the main track in the 6-furlong $50K Swept Away.
1A-4-8-2
Race 7 -
3 SEATTLE FIZZ faces winners after drawing clear on a sealed 'fast' track to break his maiden at the distance by 6 1/2 lengths. 2 STRIKING FORCE drops and stretches out after showing speed and tiring vs. $16K "two-lifetime" types at 5 1/2 furlongs (May 13). 8 TOMORROWS PICK merits respect today when he stretches out around 2-turns after showing speed and fading late in a pair vs. similar at seven-eighths of a mile.
3-2-8
Race 8 -
7 MAMI NENA showed promise sprinting on the grass here when she encountered early trouble (steadied) and was beaten less than 3 lengths at this level and distance last out. 11 BALLERINA BUNNY drops to the $40K level after dueling for the lead and tiring to finish fourth vs. maiden special weight competition last Sunday. 4 DIMESTORE DOLLY will try the grass after showing speed and finishing second in three consecutive sprints on the dirt, including one at this level on May 21. Trainer Kirk Ziadie tabs apprentice David Cardoso to ride. 9 SMOKE GRANTED, a good closing third at this level and distance last out, should sit in the catbird seat behind the hot pace scenario expected.
7-11-4-9
Race 9 -
4 ARIEL BRIGHT wears blinkers after a sparkling career debut in which she set the pace - on a sealed 'sloppy' track - before weakening to finish third - beaten only 1 1/2 lengths. 6 ANTONOVA will be treated with Lasix after running into a buzz saw named Yonagucci in her 4 1/2-furlong career debut on a sealed 'sloppy' track. Trainer Ed Plesa Jr., who has two in the race, has Roimes Chirinos atop the daughter of Halo's Image and Abel Castellano Jr. guiding first-time starter 2 MADDIES' REWARD. The half to multiple stakes winner Sea Of Green has trained sharply in preparation for this assignment. 1 TEQUILA LIGHT is stretching out after showing speed and tiring to finish third in what should proved to be a useful 4 1/2-furlong career debut.
4-6-2-1
Race 10 -
7 STAR COMMANDO is turning back to a mile after responding to the drop in competition with a third place finish vs. this caliber of competition at a mile & 70 yards. 1 C. R DANCING FOX, second at this distance on May 25, turns back after closing to finish fourth behind Star Commando last out. 5 PRIVATE ALERT is stepping up after posting speed figures good enough to beat this group when finishing third in a pair of $10K "three-lifetime" claimers.
7-1-5
Race 11 -
3 FORTUNATE TRAIL, 2 for 4 in the money at the distance, drops & stretches out after his impressive 3-race win streak ended when he dueled and finished second vs. $12.5K starter allowance at 5 furlongs on a sealed 'sloppy' track. Trainer Kirk Ziadie, 28% with horses stretching out, tabs Jermaine Bridgmohan to ride. 2 EXCELLENT JOB, a 6-time winner at the distance, is stretching out after drawing clear, as the favorite, to defeat this level of competition at a mile. 5 MEAN KISSER turns back to a mile & 70 yards after setting the pace and getting beat a nose in the 12-furlong New York New York on Belmont Day. The 6-year-old, who has shown the ability to win when setting or stalking the pace, can sit a 'key' second flight trip today.
3-2-5
Race 12 -
5 JUST FOR KEEPS is turning back to 6 furlongs after her impressive 2-race win streak ended when she dueled and faded to finish second vs. "three-lifetime" allowance competition at seven-eighths of a mile. 3 GOTHIC BEAUTY, 2 for 3 at the distance, stretches out after a nice return from a 7-month plus vacation in which she stalked the pace and finished third behind pacesetting 2 REASON TO REJOICE. The latter, who does her best running on the lead, stretches out looking for her second career win at the distance (8-1-1-2).
5-3-2
Race 13 -
4 NORTHERNBAMAGIRL is cutting back a tad after closing to finish a good second vs. this level of competition at a mile and a sixteenth on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 3 A WISH OR TWO AGO is stretching out an additional 70 yards after posting the best last-race speed figure (49) when beaten a neck at a mile on a 'sealed' fast track. 1 LIZA ANN will depart from the rail after grabbing the lead mid-race before fading late to finish third behind Nothernbamagirl last out.
BEST BET: RACE 9 - ARIEL BRIGHT
LONG SHOT: RACE 2 - ISLAND SKY
4-3-1
__________________
Brian Gabrielle
Bonus Play: Proposition 1 Special vs Proposition 2 Special
Take Charles Howell III (40-1), 1/6 unit: Where have you gone Thurston Howell the Third? After a huge start---five top-10s including a win in his first seven tournaments of 2007---he’s finished inside the top-25 once, missed two cuts and withdrew from the Memorial. He’s still in the top-5 in FedEx Cup. He finished T51 at the U.S. Open, took last week off, and should be ready to go. He’s only played the Buick Open once, back in 2003, and he finished T38. Take John Rollins (66-1), 1/6 unit: Rollins has also slowed after a strong start to ’07, but he averages a very respectable 3.44 birdies per round (T42 on Tour). He’s coming off an MC on a tough course outside of Hartford with all the wind and rain. Warwick Hills should be a nice chance to get back to his consistent form in the middle of the season. This pick, like Thursty the Third above, is about rehabilitation on a kinder, gentler course. Take Daniel Chopra (80-1), 1/6 unit: Not sure what’s up with Chopra. He shot a 1-under 69 last Thursday on the aforementioned tough course then promptly withdrew after 12 holes at 6-over because of illness. I see him as a Pat Perez type: very talented, very temperamental. But Chopra showed signs of rising to the occasion late last year with some strong finishes. He just needs to get to Sunday within striking distance. What’s weird, given what seems to be an uneven temperament, is that he’s an excellent putter.
maddux sports
Pick is NY Mets -125
Big Al McMordie
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)
Jun 30, 2007 7:05 PM EDT
Play: Total: Over
These two ballclubs have a lot in common. They have almost identical records, have owners that beieve they can build for the future with prospects and without spending a lot of money on high-priced free agents, and - as of next year - will have two of the best ballparks in baseball. The new park in southwest Washington is going to be spectacular, and Nats fans and management are hoping that they can quickly put a product on the field that will match the quality of the venue and it's surroundings. But for now, it's series like this one which both franchises view as critical if, for no other reason, they feel they are extremely winnable. And so far, both teams have had their share of success against the other. Last year, the series was knotted at three games apiece. This year, the Pirates seem to have the stronger team if only slightly. But no matter who wins, each of these teams have a tendency to put up runs when playing the other. In the last eight matchups between these two squads, there has been a total of nine or more runs in six of those contests. RFK stadium is proving this year to be not nearly the pitcher's park that everyone thought it was. Take the 'over'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Ben Burns
Game: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Jun 30 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Reason: After getting humiliated 11-1 here yesterday, the Tigers should enjoy several advantages for today's game. For starters, Detroit has gone a terrific 17-9 when playing during the afternoon. The Tigers are also averaging a whopping six runs per game, including 5.8 vs. right-handed starters. The Twins, on the other hand, are averaging a mere 4.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters. Additionally, Miller is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA for the season and comes off six shutout innings in his last start. Meanwhile, Slowey lost his last start, allowing five runs (4 earned) in five innings. That gives him a 5.51 ERA his last three starts. Consider a play on DETROIT
CAPPERS ACCESS
(Sat) MLB Brewers
(Sat) MLB W. Sox
(Sat) MLB Blue Jays
george smeader
MLB Oakland vs. New York (A) []
Take New York (A) Yankees
We will play on the moneyline at -147. The Yankees stack up in our MLB system with a 6.0 rating. Our system is based on several years of experience, practice and fine tuning with solid year over year returns. Ratings are not multipliers on base unit betting. Our ratings system is on a 1-8 scale, but we will never release a play lower than a 5.9. Winning is our business and businss is good.
Bobby Maxwell
In this battle of left handers, we're going with the Giants and Noah Lowry (7-6, 3.61 ERA) in this one to continue the home dominance over the D'Backs in this one.
Lowry is 6-1 in San Francisco this season with a 2.61 ERA and last time he pitched at home was Sunday when he allowed one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings in a 7-2 win over the Yankees. Lowry and the Giants have won five straight games against Arizona dating back to his 2005 starts. Since 2005 he has held the D'Backs to three or less runs on five of six outings
On the mound for Arizona is lefty Doug Davis (5-8, 4.16 ERA). He's been bad on the road, posting a 2-6 mark this season. He's given up four runs or more in three of his last four starts. Davis has seen the Giants twice this season with a win and loss to his credit. In San Francisco he allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings in a 4-2 loss.
In a series so dominated by the home team, no way we're going against the Giants in this one. Play Lowry to shut down the D'Backs in this one.
2? SAN FRANCISCO
locksmith sports
MLB
on Kansas City -108 (action)
The Royals are playing their best baseball of the season by far having won 5 straight now and we'll continue riding their hot streak here today. The Sox are a pathetic 9-18 against the money line in June games this season. The Royals are 9-3 against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. The Sox just can't get things together this season. Take KC.
info plays
3* on Minnesota +143
(Listing Slowey and Miller)
Kevin Slowey does not have a loss yet this season with 27 plus innings under his belt as a starter. He is definitely worth a shot today as a nice-sized underdog. Minnesota has won their last two games over Detroit in dominant fashion. The Twins won 16-4 previously and 11-1 yesterday. The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings with the Tigers. The Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Minnesota.
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins Jun 30 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Reason: I'm laying a rare price with the Braves on Saturday. After a fantastic start to the season, Tim Hudson hit a rough patch. But he looks to be getting back to form as of late. In his last three outings, the Atlanta righty has allowed just five earned runs and 20 base runners in 19 2/3 IP. That's a strong, 2.28 ERA & 1.02 WHIP to go along with a healthy, 12-to-2 K/BB ratio. Hudson owns good evening numbers and he has had no trouble at all in his career against the Marlins. The veteran hurler is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 10 starts against the Fish, including a 3-0, 2.53 mark at this venue. He'll likely get plenty of support tonight. The Braves average 5.9 RPG in road night games against right-handers. They'll face Kim, who has a 6.14 ERA in 13 appearances against Atlanta. Making matters worse for the Marlins is that they only score 3.8 RPG in home night tilts against righties. Look for the Braves to hand the Marlins a second straight loss in this weekend set. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Robert Ross
Game: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Jun 30 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
Reason: Chicago had its four-game win streak snapped last night: it will look to snap K.C.'s five-game streak tonight. Ozzie is 72-55 as White Sox manager in road division games. K.C. starter Perez is 0-4, 5.70 lifetime vs. the Pale Hose. The CHI WHITE SOX are 69-47 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 9-28 against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. Take Chicago!
Big Al's #1 National League Game of the Month!
At 7:05 pm (time change), our National League Game of the Month is on the Colorado Rockies over Houston. Lefty Jeff Francis will get the start for the Rockies and the Astros struggle mightily vs. southpaws. This season, Houston is hitting just .247 vs. lefties and scoring a paltry 3.9 runs per game. But even those meager numbers will be tough to reach tonight vs. Francis, as he has surrendered 2 earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. Jason Jennings will be Francis' mound opponent, and his team has won just two of his last nine starts. Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
JIMMY BOYD
MLB Chicago (A) vs. Kansas City []
Take Kansas City Royals
1 Unit on Kansas City -108 (action) The Royals are playing their best baseball of the season by far having won 5 straight now and we'll continue riding their hot streak here today. The Sox are a pathetic 9-18 against the money line in June games this season. The Royals are 9-3 against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. The Sox just can't get things together this season. Take KC.
LARRY COOK
MLB Minnesota vs. Detroit []
Take Minnesota Twins
3* on Minnesota +139 (Listing Slowey and Miller) Kevin Slowey does not have a loss yet this season with 27 plus innings under his belt as a starter. He is definitely worth a shot today as a nice-sized underdog. Minnesota has won their last two games over Detroit in dominant fashion. The Twins won 16-4 previously and 11-1 yesterday. The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings with the Tigers. The Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Minnesota.
WUNDERDOG
BELMONT PARK Race #THREE (2:00 PM Eastern)
(# 5) BIG APPLE DANDY - Former high-profile stakes performer has been racing in little spurts for about two years. Has some physical ailments, but can still fire a big race and can do it off the bench. He's working well for trainer Bruce Levine, and I think he's ready for a big effort.
(# 2) Stonewood - Claimed last out by the Contessa-Laudati operation from Mike Hushion for $30K. New connections send him immediately into a stakes and why not? He has big speed, is in great form at present and faces a whole bunch of "refreshed" runners. Big chance "on the engine.
(# 1) Yankee Mon - Another of the group comin! g off a layoff, though he raced in early April. This marks his first start for the Zito barn and the works aren't bad. Saves all the ground.
black widow sports
MLB
toronto -138
(List Halladay)
Roy Halladay has been on fire lately and we will ride him today. Halladay is 9-2 on the season and is 3-0 in his last 3 starts featuring a 3.22 ERA. The Blue Jays are 7-0 in their last 7 Saturday games. The Blue Jays are 9-0 in Halladay's last 9 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Blue Jays are 22-5 in Halladay's last 27 starts during game 2 of a series. Opposing hitters fear this guy as they should. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in Halladay’s last 5 starts against the Mariners. The Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. We are receiving the right value today with Halladay on the mound. Take the Blue Jays.
Michael Cannon Money Train
Saturday's Plays:
20 Dime -
PADRES (With Peavy as listed pitcher)
10 Dime -
INDIANS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (With Howell and Sabathia as listed pitchers)
5 Dime -
A's (With Gaudin and Igawa as listed pitchers)
San Francisco sends Noah Lowry to the hill against Arizona's Doug Davis knowing Lowry's home ERA (2.61) is more than two runs better per game than his road ERA (4.66) this season. With Davis in horrible current form, look for the Giants to drill the Diamondbacks here this evening.
PICK: San Francisco Giants
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins
Reason: I'm laying a rare price with the Braves on Saturday. After a fantastic start to the season, Tim Hudson hit a rough patch. But he looks to be getting back to form as of late. In his last three outings, the Atlanta righty has allowed just five earned runs and 20 base runners in 19 2/3 IP. That's a strong, 2.28 ERA & 1.02 WHIP to go along with a healthy, 12-to-2 K/BB ratio. Hudson owns good evening numbers and he has had no trouble at all in his career against the Marlins. The veteran hurler is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 10 starts against the Fish, including a 3-0, 2.53 mark at this venue. He'll likely get plenty of support tonight. The Braves average 5.9 RPG in road night games against right-handers. They'll face Kim, who has a 6.14 ERA in 13 appearances against Atlanta. Making matters worse for the Marlins is that they only score 3.8 RPG in home night tilts against righties. Look for the Braves to hand the Marlins a second straight loss in this weekend set.
PICK: Atlanta Braves
Thanks! GL! Scott.
Vegas Experts
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Look for the Tigers to bounce back big. They had won 14-of-22 here from the Twins before last night. Poor power hitting Twins figure to be searching for runs tonight vs. southpaw Aaron Miller after scoring 11 last night. GARDENHIRE is 15-39 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of MINNESOTA. LEYLAND is 46-19 against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game as the manager of DETROIT.
PICK: Detroit
Brandon Lang
15 Dime
San Francisco Giants
10 Dime
Detroit Tigers -1- runs
5 Dimes
LA Angels
St Louis Cardinals
Trev Rogers
Cardinals +105
Cubs +106
Blue Jays -139
Rangers/Red Sox Over 10
Rockies/Astros Under 9
Hondo
HONDO
June 30, 2007 -- The Law of Averages came through for Hondo and the Yankees, who hung on last night in El Bronx to reduce the debt to 45 messersmiths.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will throw some coin at Penny - 10 units on the Dodgers.
Handicapper World
Braves @ Marlins
Hudson vs Kim
Pick: Braves -150 (Game of the Week)
Padres @ Dodgers
Peavy vs Penny
Pick: Padres +135
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO (-130)
In this battle of left handers, we're going with the Giants and Noah Lowry (7-6, 3.61 ERA) in this one to continue the home dominance over the D'Backs in this one.
Lowry is 6-1 in San Francisco this season with a 2.61 ERA and last time he pitched at home was Sunday when he allowed one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings in a 7-2 win over the Yankees. Lowry and the Giants have won five straight games against Arizona dating back to his 2005 starts. Since 2005 he has held the D'Backs to three or less runs on five of six outings.
On the mound for Arizona is lefty Doug Davis (5-8, 4.16 ERA). He's been bad on the road, posting a 2-6 mark this season. He's given up four runs or more in three of his last four starts. Davis has seen the Giants twice this season with a win and loss to his credit. In San Francisco he allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings in a 4-2 loss.
In a series so dominated by the home team, no way we're going against the Giants in this one. Play Lowry to shut down the D'Backs in this one.
2? SAN FRANCISCO
Sports Gambling Hotline
San Diego (-110) at LOS ANGELES
Tonight we fully expect the Peavy-Penny matchup at Chavez Ravine to live up to its billing and produce an UNDER in easy fashion.
This is a rather low total, but there is no other way you can go, as both Peavy and Penny have been stingy about giving up runs this season.
Jake Peavy is 4-0 on the road this year with an ERA of 0.88!
Brad Penny is 4-0 at home this year with an ERA of 1.38!
Those two stats alone are enough for us to jump all over a pitchers duel tonight, but also consider last night snapped a string of 6 straight UNDERS for San Diego.
We see a ton of circles on the Dodger Stadium scoreboard tonight, as the Padres and Dodgers stay UNDER the posted total.
4? UNDER
Karl Garrett
Colorado (-115) at HOUSTON
Tonight I think the Rockies losing streak is going to finally come to a halt!
Colorado was stunned last night in the bottom of the ninth, as the Rockies losing streak is now at 8 in a row. Look for the skid to end tonight as Jeff Francis is a tough southpaw, and I think he has a gem lined up for tonight's start.
Francis did struggle his last time out, but that was at the unpredictable Wrigley Field where he gave up 6 runs in a 5 inning no decision. Prior to that start, Francis had shut down both the Red Sox and the Yankees. Hey, if you can hold those two potent offenses at bay, I certainly think you can keep the Houston attack in check.
Jennings counters with just a 1-2 mark for the year, and I am thinking after last night's setback, the Rockies should be in an ornery mood this evening when they hit the field.
I am going with Colorado in this one.
1? COLORADO
Dave Cokin
Take "(906) PHI Phillies"
One of my favorite takes is with debuting southpaws. Lefties that haven't been seen frequently present tough looks to even the best hitters and I'm looking for the angle to hold up Saturday as the Phillies host the Mets. Off the doubleheader defeat Friday, the home team needs this one badly, which means pressure for rookie J.A. Happ. But I like the Northwestern product to fool the Mets with his outstanding changeup and hold them at bay here. Jorge Sosa has been an asset to the Mets staff this season, but I'll try to beat him here. The Phillies at plus money are the selection
Jim Feist
Take "(905) NY Mets"
A tough spot for the young Phillies pitcher against this powerful NY offense. Lefthander J.A. Happ, who will start against the Mets, will be the sixth Phillies pitcher to make his major-league debut this season. The others were Joe Bisenius, Yoel Hernandez, Kyle Kendrick, Zack Segovia and Mike Zagurski. NY is 20-14 on the road and getting its offense going. Starter Jorge Sosa (3.79 ERA) has been strong and is 2-1 lifetime against the Phillies with a 3.03 ERA. Play the Mets!
Saturday Horse Racing Spot Picks-Previews
SPOT PLAYS
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (3rd) Its Bailey's Time, 4-1
(8th) Book the Bullet, 6-1
Belmont Park (5th) Redefined, 4-1
(6th) Seastate, 5-1
Calder Race Course (1st) Go Fly a Kite, 3-1
(2nd) Blue Pepsi Lodge, 6-1
Canterbury Park (5th) Dinner Magic, 4-1
(8th) Unreal General, 4-1
Charles Town (2nd) Jen Jen, 5-1
(4th) Merci Please, 5-1
Churchill Downs (3rd) Cat and a Half, 8-1
(4th) Leos Gal, 3-1
Colonial Downs (5th) Cryptogram, 5-1
(9th) Clare to Here, 4-1
Delaware Park (7th) City Weekend, 6-1
(10th) Dreamm Diva, 3-1
Emerald Downs (1st) Sarah Mac, 7-2
(3rd) Galer Gardens, 3-1
Evangeline Downs (1st) Miss Dylan, 8-1
(4th) White Star, 6-1
Finger Lakes (7th) Trust Nobody, 3-1
(9th) Run Mikey Run, 5-1
Great Lakes Downs (7th) Touch of Magic, 9-2
(8th) Asp, 4-1
Hastings Park (4th) Saanichton, 9-2
(6th) Tappen to Time, 6-1
Hollywood Park (6th) Smart Hit, 9-2
(8th) Just Knock, 3-1
Indiana Downs (7th) Pagoda, 3-1
(9th) Moody Mama, 10-1
Lone Star Park (7th) Decidedly Taken, 7-2
(8th) Not in my House, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (8th) Best of the West, 7-2
(9th) Our Story, 4-1
Monmouth Park (3rd) Elite Miss, 7-2
(6th) Private War, 5-1
Mountaineer (7th) Point of Attack, 3-1
(9th) Storm Cave, 8-1
Northlands (6th) Mandi Tambi, 7-2
(7th) Cowher Power, 3-1
Philadelphia Park (6th) Custom Cruiser, 9-2
(7th) Bold Clover, 3-1
Prairie Meadows (3rd) Holiday Hustle, 7-2
(9th) Shamrock Shark, 3-1
River Downs (5th) Hammer Down Hank, 4-1
(7th) M and Em, 5-1
Suffolk Downs (8th) Golden Gator, 7-2
(9th) Three D Alycat, 3-1
Thistledown (4th) Izzies Rose, 7-2
(6th) Sidoslew, 8-1
Woodbine (8th) Aint No Cure, 3-1
(10th) Hoping for Glory, 4-1
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
HOLLYWOOD GOLD CUP S. (G1), 10TH-HOL, $750,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/4M, 4:50 P.M. PDT, 6-30
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 MY CREED HESS R B BAZE R A 117
2 A. P. XCELLENT SHIRREFFS JOHN SMITH M E 115
3 SAINT STEPHEN CECIL B D A VALDIVIA J JR 115
4 PORFIDO (CHI) FRANKEL ROBERT J ROSARIO JOEL 112
5 MOLENGAO (BRZ) LOBO PAULO H ESPINOZA V 120
6 WILKO DOLLASE CRAIG TALAMO JOSEPH 115
7 A. P. ARROW PLETCHER TODD A FLORES D R 116
8 LAVA MAN O'NEILL DOUG NAKATANI C S 124
9 BIG BOOSTER MITCHELL MIKE BAZE M C 113
LAVA MAN (Slew City Slew) will seek a rare three-peat in Saturday's $750,000 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) -- Native Diver (1965-67) is the only previous horse to sweep three consecutive runnings -- but circumstances have changed in this year's 1 1/4-mile contest. The last two Gold Cups were held on dirt, but Cushion Track is in place for the 2007 edition. The six-year-old gelding will attempt to snap a two-race losing skein while making his synthetic track debut, and we'll try to beat him.
A. P. XCELLENT (A.P. Indy) is our top pick. A Cushion Track specialist, the John Shirreffs-trained colt reeled off three straight wins at Hollywood before suffering his first setback in the June 2 Californian S. (G2). He still finished a game third behind Buzzards Bay (Marco Bay) last time, beaten 1 1/2 lengths after dueling on the front end most of the way, and his pace challenger that afternoon, Grade 1 winner Kip Deville (Kipling), retreated badly from his early exploits. A. P. Xcellent looks like the lone speed on Saturday.
A maiden winner in mid-November, the four-year-old was no factor when trying graded stakes company on dirt and turf earlier this year, but he gained valuable seasoning while showing good class in the Californian. We expect him to move forward off that effort, and A. P. Xcellent won't have any trouble with the 10-furlong distance. He also receives nine pounds from the favorite under a 115-pound impost. Mike Smith should be able to nurse his mount's speed along through slow fractions, and A. P. Xcellent will have to be caught.
MOLENGAO (Brz) (Royal Academy) is a top contender. Winner of the San Antonio H. (G2) on dirt in early February, he recorded a fast-closing second to Lava Man in the Santa Anita H. (G1) in early March. Freshened until the May 5 Mervyn LeRoy H. (G2), the six-year-old horse made a splendid impression over the Cushion Track, rolling from off the pace to a 4 1/2-length decision. He earned his third consecutive 103 BRIS Speed rating last time, and the Paulo Lobo trainee has never been better. Molengao is a threat to run past all of his rivals in the stretch.
Lava Man had a nine-race win skein in Southern California snapped when finishing second in the grassy Charles Whittingham Memorial H. (G1) last out, and he turned in a dreadful performance when last of 16 in the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-G1) two starts back at Nad al Sheba. The veteran gelding is showing signs that he could be losing a step, and he may prove vulnerable over a new surface following a difficult campaign this year. Trainer Doug O'Neill, who is vacationing in Ireland, won't be on hand for the Gold Cup, and Lava Man will be the heavy favorite. We'll take a stand against the 124-pound highweight.
PORFIDO (Chi) (Mash One [Chi]) looms as an intriguing entrant for Bobby Frankel. A multiple Group 1 winner in his homeland, the multiple Chilean champion made his U.S. debut last summer without much success, recording four straight unplaced finishes in 2006. He hasn't shown a lot more this year, but the five-year-old experienced a troubled trip last time when fifth in the Whittingham and might be rounding into form for his Hall of Fame conditioner. Porfido has raced strictly on turf in the United States, but turf horses often make a seamless transition to the synthetic surfaces. The late runner could pick up the pieces for a minor award.
A. P. ARROW (A.P. Indy) has shipped west for Todd Pletcher off a non-threatening third in the Birdstone S. at Belmont Park, and the Grade 3 winner is a bit of a plodder. He didn't make much of an impact in his lone previous attempt over a synthetic track, finishing fourth as the favorite in the Fayette S. (G3) last October, but A. P. Arrow does get part often. He figures to sit a good trip stalking the pace with his tactical speed, and a top-three placing isn't out of the question for the five-year-old.
BIG BOOSTER (Accelerator) failed to hit the board in three straight claiming starts before breaking through in his synthetic debut last time, winning an allowance/optional claiming event at Hollywood. An affinity for the surface is often more important than class when dealing with the synthetic surfaces, but Big Booster is facing a stiff class hike here. Still, we can't completely dismiss him from exotics consideration. SAINT STEPHEN (Saint Ballado) ran well over the Cushion Track in December, defeating Molengao in the Native Diver H. (G3), but he hasn't been the same performer since then, dropping starts in Florida and Kentucky prior to a dull sixth in the Californian. He's been transferred to Ben Cecil for this appearance, but we can't recommend Saint Stephen's chances based on his recent form.
Grade 1 hero WILKO (Awesome Again) hasn't won since 2004, and he exits a dull seventh in the Californian. It's difficult to imagine him suddenly turning things around here. MY CREED (Beau Genius) exits a three-length win in the Berkeley S. (G3) at Golden Gate Fields. Russell Baze will accompany the Northern California shipper, but My Creed doesn't look fast enough to challenge in his first start past nine furlongs.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-A. P. XCELLENT
2nd-MOLENGAO (Brz)
3rd-LAVA MAN
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
SUBURBAN H. (G1), 9TH-BEL, $400,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/4M, 5:15 P.M. EDT, 6-30
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 POLITICAL FORCE JERKENS H ALLEN VELASQUEZ CORNE 116
2 HESANOLDSALT ZITO NICHOLAS P COA E M 117
3 MALIBU MOONSHINE LAUDATI KIM HILL C 114
4 CORINTHIAN JERKENS JAMES A DESORMEAUX K J 119
5 FAIRBANKS PLETCHER TODD A MIGLIORE R 116
6 EVENING ATTIRE KELLY PATRICK J PRADO E S 114
Saturday's $400,000 Suburban H. (G1) took a major hit when Invasor (Arg) was retired due to injury. That left CORINTHIAN (Pulpit) as the horse to beat, but 10 furlongs remains a question for the four-year-old colt. We'll select FAIRBANKS (Giant's Causeway) for a minor upset.
Fairbanks broke his maiden at Belmont Park last summer and then captured an allowance/optional claiming event by nine lengths at Saratoga. Both wins came in front-running fashion, but the Todd Pletcher trainee made only one more appearance in 2006. He returned to the races this year at Gulfstream, turning in a scintillating performance to win a nine-furlong allowance by 3 1/2 lengths, and shipped west for the San Antonio H. (G2) in early February. Sent off the 5-2 second choice, the four-year-old colt lost all chance when stumbling at the start, but Fairbanks remained in California and made his next appearance in the Tokyo City Cup H. (G3) at Santa Anita in late March. After getting out of the gate in fine order, the bay colt crushed his rivals on the front end, winning by 6 3/4 lengths while registering 109 BRIS Speed and Late Pace ratings.
Fairbanks could very easily find himself unopposed on the front end Saturday, and the 91-day rest isn't a concern since he runs well fresh. He's also got the pedigree to easily handle 10 furlongs. Fairbanks has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, and we'll look for him to deliver his first Grade 1 tally with a wire-to-wire score.
Corinthian won't allow the speed to get too far away from him, recording 105 and 104 BRIS E2 Pace numbers in his last two outings, and his Speed figures are outstanding. He turned in a huge effort last time, winning the Met Mile (G1) in an authoritative manner by three-quarters of a length, but the four-year-old will have to negotiate an extra quarter-mile on Saturday. Corinthian showed signs of vulnerability in the 1 3/16-mile Gulfstream Park H. (G2) earlier this year, squandering a clear lead in midstretch to win by a neck, and the Suburban will likely determine whether trainer James Jerkens pursues the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) this fall or targets the inaugural $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. We feel he's probably better suited toward the latter, but Corinthian remains a threat to run down the pacesetter based strictly on talent.
HESANOLDSALT (Broad Brush) owns seconds from all five starts this year, including a runner-up finish behind Invasor in the Donn H. (G1), and netted a 111 Speed rating for his narrow bridesmaid effort to Flashy Bull (Holy Bull) in the William Donald Schaefer H. (G3) two starts back. That rival captured the Stephen Foster H. (G1) next out. Hesanoldsalt acts like the type who will run all day, and the Nick Zito charge remains a candidate to break through at this level eventually. However, he wasn't particularly sharp when returning to Belmont in the Birdstone S. last out, finishing five lengths back of the winner, and we can't endorse his win chances here.
EVENING ATTIRE (Black Tie Affair [Ire]) won't be anywhere near the front during the early stages, and the veteran gelding appears to have lost a step at age nine, finishing fourth in his last four outings versus stakes rivals. Winner of the 2002 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), the Pat Kelly charge will need to summon some back class to get involved on Saturday, and we'd love to see him finish up strong for a minor award.
POLITICAL FORCE (Unbridled's Song) took advantage of a wicked pace duel when closing for second in the Met Mile, but the pace scenario will be completely different here and the added ground looks disadvantageous. MALIBU MOONSHINE (Malibu Moon) likes a route of ground, but he probably needs an easier spot to be effective.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-FAIRBANKS
2nd-CORINTHIAN
3rd-HESANOLDSALT
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
MOTHER GOOSE S. (G1), 8TH-BEL, $250,000, 3YO, F, 1 1/8M, 4:43 P.M. EDT, 6-30
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 OCTAVE PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 121
2 BOLD ASSURANCE HENNIG MARK GOMEZ G K 121
3 LADY JOANNE NAFZGER CARL A BOREL C H 121
4 BOCA GRANDE MCGAUGHEY CLAUDE III CASTELLANO J J 121
A small field of four has been entered in Saturday's $250,000 Mother Goose S. (G1) at Belmont Park, and OCTAVE (Unbridled's Song) is the one to beat in the nine-furlong test. The Todd Pletcher-trained gray was last seen running second to eventual Belmont S. (G1) winner Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy) in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), a race that has since produced stakes winners in Dreaming of Anna (Rahy), Tough Tiz's Sis (Tiznow), Cotton Blossom (Broken Vow) and Sealy Hill (Point Given). Octave could continue that trend here with John Velazquez returning to the saddle, but we're going with LADY JOANNE (Orientate) to continue a win streak of her own.
The Carl Nafzger-trained miss has suffered just one loss since breaking her maiden last October, that coming as a third in the Pocahontas S. (G3) at Churchill Downs. She returned on that track to conclude her campaign with a victory in the Golden Rod S. (G2), and many were already naming her a major player for the Kentucky Oaks. Nafzger didn't rush his filly, though, bringing her back slowly to make her 2007 bow a 1 1/4-length score in an allowance under the Twin Spires on May 1. She returned to the stakes ranks last out to post a nice victory in the Dogwood Breeders' Cup (G3), denying Oaks runner High Again (High Yield) a next-out win. Lady Joanne will be making her first start outside of Kentucky in this spot, but based on how much care her conditioner has taken thus far, she wouldn't be in this spot if she wasn't ready. Calvin Borel has the call, and the pair could make it three in a row on Saturday.
Octave will be attempting to break a case of seconditis that has lasted for her past five races. A Grade 2 winner from her juvenile season, she's so far been runner-up in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Ashland S. (G1) and aforementioned Kentucky Oaks this year. The three-year-old filly earned a 104 BRIS Speed rating as well as a 105 BRIS Late Pace figure for her last try, and has experience on Belmont's dirt, finishing second in the Astoria S. and Matron S. (G1) last season. Octave has been given time to recover from the Kentucky Oaks and could be primed for a big effort, but is listed at 3-5 on the morning line. She probably won't break even-money on race day, so we'll go against in hopes of getting a little value. John Velazquez has the return call.
Multiple Grade 2 victress BOCA GRANDE (A.P. Indy) is exiting a fourth to Cotton Blossom in the Acorn S. (G1), but was returning off a slight layoff in that mile test and could show more here. The Shug McGaughey charge broke her maiden on Belmont's surface in October, scoring a front-running 5 1/4-length victory, before ending her juvenile campaign by adding the Demoiselle S. (G2) to her record. She didn't do so well in her return in the Forward Gal S. (G2) off the break, but stepped back up to take the Comely S. (G2) in her second start of the year. Boca Grande probably needed her last one and is our pick to fill out the trifecta under Javier Castellano.
BOLD ASSURANCE (Stormy Atlantic) is guaranteed to pick up a $12,500 check in this spot and might even earn a graded placing if Boca Grande falters for any reason. Considering she hasn't been able to keep up when facing just stakes rivals in her past two races, the Mark Hennig trainee has no other reason for being in this race.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-LADY JOANNE
2nd-OCTAVE
3rd-BOCA GRANDE
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
AMERICAN INVITATIONAL H. (G2), 5TH-HOL, $250,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/8MT, 2:06 P.M. PDT, 6-30
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 BECRUX (ITY) DRYSDALE NEIL FLORES D R 118
2 LANG FIELD SHERMAN ART COURT J K 114
3 THE TIN MAN MANDELLA RICHARD E ESPINOZA V 123
4 WILLOW O WISP CERIN VLADIMIR TALAMO JOSEPH 117
5 RIGHT SPECIAL (BRZ) LOBO PAULO H BLANC B 117
6 OUT OF CONTROL (BRZ) FRANKEL ROBERT J BAZE M C 113
7 FAST AND FURIOUS (FR) MCANALLY RONALD SOLIS A 114
THE TIN MAN (Affirmed) towers over his opposition in Saturday's $250,000 American Invitational H. (G2). The nine-year-old gelding returned off an eight-month layoff in superb form in the May 28 Shoemaker Breeders' Cup Mile S. (G1), rating just off the pace before seizing command at the top of the stretch, and he'll use this nine-furlong event as his final prep for the Arlington Million (G1) on August 11. Unbeaten in six U.S. starts since 2004, the Richard Mandella trainee appeared as good as ever in the Shoemaker, earning a strong 102 BRIS Late Pace rating, and his recent worktab looks very encouraging. The Tin Man captured last year's American, and we expect a repeat performance.
BECRUX (Ity) (Glen Jordan) has the best chance at an upset. Winner of last year's Woodbine Mile (Can-G1), he has the back class to pose a threat and the pace should set up for him, with fellow contestants LANG FIELD (Langfuhr) and WILLOW O WISP (Misnomer) being confirmed front runners. Becrux hasn't flattered himself since the Woodbine Mile in mid-September, recording three consecutive unplaced finishes under the tutelage of Neil Drysdale, but his fourth-place effort in the Shoemaker did offer some hope. After rating off a moderate pace, he rallied willingly to finish fourth, only a length back of The Tin Man, and netted his first triple-digit Late Pace number (104) of the year. The five-year-old gelding hasn't proven very effective past a mile, but Becrux figures to be making some headway in the stretch in this spot.
RIGHT SPECIAL (Brz) (Special Nash [Ire]) is eligible to keep showing more in his third start stateside, and he's displayed a solid late kick so far this season, registering Late Pace numbers of 113 and 107. The five-year-old probably isn't good enough right now to challenge for the upset, but he owns exotics potential at long odds. We'll tab the improving Paulo Lobo charge for a minor award.
FAST AND FURIOUS (Fr) (Singspiel [Ire]) has some class concerns in this spot, but the late-running Ron McAnally pupil can't be completely dismissed in his third start off the layoff. He ran decently in his first start back this year, finishing third to Right Special in an allowance, and was hurt by a slow pace last time in the Shoemaker. The pace scenario figures to be much different here, and Fast and Furious could get involved late for a small share.
Willow O Wisp has been the first-call leader in his last six starts, but a speedball rival to his inside could end that string. The Vladimir Cerin runner will probably be prompting the pace in second under Joseph Talamo on Saturday, and the gelding exits a commendable third-place showing in the Shoemaker in which he was beaten only three parts of a length. A multiple Grade 2 winner, Willow O Wisp always keeps top company and appears to be doing well presently. We won't be surprised to see him hold for another top three placing.
OUT OF CONTROL (Brz) (Vettori) exits a promising allowance triumph for Bobby Frankel, but we're going to give the lightly raced South American import a race against stakes rivals in the United States. Lang Field will likely face too much pressure to be effective.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-THE TIN MAN
2nd-BECRUX (Ity)
3rd-RIGHT SPECIAL (Brz)
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
FIRECRACKER H. (G2), 10TH-CD, $250,000, 3YO/UP, 1MT, 5:51 P.M. EDT, 6-30
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 REMARKABLE NEWS (VEN) PENNA ANGEL JR DOMINGUEZ R A 122
2 HOLD THE SALT DODGEN JAMES A HERNANDEZ B J J 112
3 FREE THINKING DANNER DOUG CASTANON J L 114
4 BRILLIANT HOWARD NEIL J GUIDRY M 121
5 OBI WAN KENOBI BROTHERS FRANK L THERIOT H J II 115
6 VEGA'S LORD (GER) DRYSDALE NEIL ALBARADO R J 116
7 CRESTED (GB) DOLLASE WALLACE BRIDGMOHAN S X 115
8 OUTPERFORMANCE VIOLETTE RICHARD JR BEJARANO R 115
9 TIGANELLO (GER) PLETCHER TODD A LEPAROUX JULIEN 115
Saturday's $250,000 Firecracker H. (G2), contested over a grassy mile at Churchill Downs, has attracted an intriguing field of nine. REMARKABLE NEWS (Ven) (Chayim) has the best resume, and BRILLIANT (War Chant) rates as the course specialist, but the pair will be spotting significant weight to their opponents while shouldering 122 and 121 pounds, respectively. The most dangerous beneficiary could be OUTPERFORMANCE (Aptitude), who gets in with just 115 pounds and could be a real overlay at an enticing 6-1 on the morning line.
Trained by Richard Violette, Outperformance was among the top tier of three-year-olds on the turf last year. He captured the 2006 Hill Prince S. (G3), chased Showing Up (Strategic Mission) in the Jamaica Breeders' Cup H. (G2), and was a nightmare-trip fourth in the Commonwealth Turf S. at Churchill in November. After finishing a rapidly closing fourth in an allowance in his four-year-old bow at Keeneland, he was one of several who were compromised in the spill-marred Dixie S. (G2) at Pimlico last time out. Despite steadying to avoid a stricken rival, Outperformance closed boldly for third, beaten a total of 3 1/2 lengths by the unhindered Remarkable News. The bay should get an honest pace here, routinely posts gaudy BRIS Late Pace numbers, loves the distance (3-2-1-0), and enters in excellent form, having fired a bullet work at Aqueduct on June 21. Outperformance should come rolling in the stretch with new pilot Rafael Bejarano.
Remarkable News turned in an outstanding effort to take the Dixie, recording a career-best 108 BRIS Speed figure, and he has an excellent lifetime mark (14-8-3-1). The Angel Penna Jr. charge deserves respect as a multiple Grade 2 winner, but he could be vulnerable because of the weight as well as likely pace pressure. Remarkable News won't go down without a fight, however, and the classy chestnut rates as the horse to beat beneath a returning Ramon Dominguez.
Brilliant is exiting a heart-breaking loss in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (G1), his only setback from four starts on the Churchill lawn. The Neil Howard pupil struck the front in the stretch and was just caught in the last stride of that nine-furlong contest on Kentucky Derby Day. Always a serious threat on his home course, Brilliant landed the Jefferson Cup S. (G2) here last season, and prior to that, he won both of his outings at a mile in allowance company. We're slightly concerned, though, partly because of his disadvantage at the weights in this spot, but also because of a recent high white blood cell count. After that hiccup, Howard accelerated his training schedule to play catch-up. Although we wouldn't be surprised if the master horseman pulls off a coup, the uncertainty is enough to put us off the 2-1 favorite on the morning line. Mark Guidry will be back in the irons.
VEGA'S LORD (Ger) (Lord of Men) ships in from California for Neil Drysdale. Two starts back, the four-year-old missed by a nose in the San Francisco Mile S. (G2), and a repeat of that performance would make him an exotics player here. His most recent start, a ninth in the Shoemaker Breeders' Cup Mile S. (G1), is a complete throw-out, considering that he bled from his mouth. Vega's Lord is another who will appreciate a legitimate pace up front. Robby Albarado picks up the mount.
The Frank Brothers-trained OBI WAN KENOBI (Skywalker) will likely be an early pace factor. The dark bay was no match for Brilliant last year, but he could be on the upgrade at present, reeling off back-to-back scores at Churchill. He'll get a real class check on Saturday. TIGANELLO (Ger) (Acatenango), who represents the powerful Todd Pletcher barn, has lured Julien Leparoux into the saddle. His connections are more compelling than his form and his Speed figures, and he could be overbet. This is a much tougher group than the one he dismissed in workmanlike fashion in the Mister Gus S. at Arlington Park last time out.
CRESTED (GB) (Fantastic Light) is capable of a fine effort on occasion, as evidenced by his strong second in the Dallas Turf Cup H. (G3) on Memorial Day. The Wally Dollase pupil is two-for-two versus lesser at Churchill, but he's yet to hit the board in four starts at a mile. FREE THINKING (Unbridled) was a terrific second in the 2006 Firecracker, but he hasn't run up to that level in his three starts so far this year.
HOLD THE SALT (Salt Lake), who promises to be on or near the early lead, looks ambitiously spotted.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-OUTPERFORMANCE
2nd-REMARKABLE NEWS (Ven)
3rd-BRILLIANT
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Louisiana Downs
Louisiana Downs - Race #3 - Post: 2:25pm
Rating: 4
Choice Plays:
#2 FURIOUS COLTON (ML=5/1)
#6 TENAHA JOE (ML=5/2)
FURIOUS COLTON - Early zip is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Louisiana Downs last time around the track. That contest had an Equibase class figure of 86 and he is moving down right here. A certain serious competitor. TENAHA JOE - This gelding is in good form. Ended up first on Jun 10th. The jockey/trainer tandem of Saenz and Ciavaglia has a strong return on investment together. This gelding is in the top spot in EPS (earnings per start). Check out this thoroughbred in the saddling enclosure.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 GENERAL'S ORDERS (ML=3/1), #5 GOOD OFFER (ML=3/1), #7 PRINCE OF STORMS (ML=8/1)
GENERAL'S ORDERS - I just don't possess a good vibe about this racer in this race. GOOD OFFER - This sustainer will probably be closing much too late to make an impression in this race. PRINCE OF STORMS - No pace in this race to help this sustainer's efforts. This mount ran a mediocre speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - TENAHA JOE - This gelding is stepping up with each event. He has shown a notable points increase in his speed ratings over his last two races.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 FURIOUS COLTON to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6]
__________________
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Saturday, June 30
RACE ONE
This year's Hollywood Gold Cup day is a tribute to tough, older campaigners, with 9-year-old The Tin Man heading the American Handicap and 6-year-old Lava Man trying to win the Gold Cup for the third consecutive year. So it's only fitting that 11-time winner EPIC POWER start the day with a victory. The hard-trying gelding, now six, is fresh from an ultra-game victory in the Khaled Handicap, accomplished at a trip slightly longer than he prefers. He now moves back to a mile, where he's won nearly half his starts. SUPER STRUT was among 'EPIC's victims in the Khaled, but was less than a length back. He takes his usual blinkers off. JACK'S WILD was out of his element in the Californian, but traded decisions with the top one earlier in the year.
RACE TWO
SLAM SLEW's biggest obstacle will be drawing in off the also eligible list. The Richard Mandella trainee ran a dynamite race first time out, battling through fast early fractions before being edged by the promising Salute the Sarge. If the top one doesn't make the starting lineup, $350,000 first times starter DRILL DOWN rates the call. The El Corrdor colt has been impressive in his morning activity and will be piloted by leading rider Michael Baze. BANANA BOAT JOE moved forward in his second start to get within two lengths of the top pick.
RACE THREE
MINISTER BLAIR ran the race of his life last time out. He quickly took command, was never challenged, then drew away in the stretch while running the last quarter in a blistering 22 4/5. If he can run anywhere near that effort, he'll be extremely difficult to beat. HEATSEEKER is a Bobby Frankel, Joe Talamo production. He was right there in his last pair and is nearing his first United States victory. GEM PROOF is a gem of consistency. Though winless this year, 'GEM has been in the money eight of his nine starts with several narrow misses.
RACE FOUR
TIME TOSAY GOODBYE ran super despite being run down late by Theverythoughtof U. That was 'GOODBYE's first race in 7 1-2 months, so the effort was even more noteworthy. KALAMATA was only a nose back of the top pick. If she can somehow duplicate that race, she could turn the tables. EXCESSIVEOBSESSION won three straight last summer before finishing second to Callmeluckylucy. She only has five works showing, so she may need a race.
RACE FIVE
Nobody told THE TIN MAN that he's not supposed to win three consecutive Grade I races at his age. A real fan favorite, THE TIN MAN squashed the naysayers in his last start by capturing the Shoemaker Mile at a distance that was supposed to be too short for him. He hasn't missed a beat since that race, working three times in the interim. WILLOW O'WISP couldn't quite hold off 'TIN in the Shoemaker, but is slowly racing himself into shape. His speed must be respected. BECRUX also competed in the Shoemaker, finishing a willing fourth. The main knock is that he's never won at this distance.
RACE SIX
ARROYO TRABUCO couldn't quite hold on in his first two-turn try, so he moves back to a sprint. He looks to be the controlling speed and should take this field all the way under his regular rider Jose Valdivia. SMART HIT missed by a neck in his last start but hasn't been seen since February. The fact that he returns in a spot where he can't be claimed is a positive sign. WARREN'S PEPE won a dog fight to break his maiden and was claimed out of the race by northern California kingpin Jerry Hollendorfer.
RACE SEVEN
ELOCUTION, from the powerful Steve Asmussen arsenal, ships west after a pair of sterling races in Kentucky. She graduated first time out at Keeneland, then was a close second in a very fast race at Churchill Downs. She appears to tower over the local contingent. TREADMILL won at first asking for Craig Dollas, defeating next-out winner Expect Valkyr. Her stalking style should play well in her first start against winners. BILLIE BOB took maidens wire to wire in her first California appearance. Trainer Wesley Ward has had a remarkable year with his juveniles.
RACE EIGHT
JUST KNOCK was given a breather after losing twice as the favorite. During the freshening, let's hope that Frankel has found a way to right the ship. INCREDIBLE was a sharp third in her first start on the Hollywood Park lawn. She'll need some luck from the extreme outside post. POLO LOUNGE was absolutely flying in the stretch but came up a neck short. Look out if this one ever learns to leave the gate with the rest of the field.
RACE NINE
ONLY IN RENO lost a photo after more than two years on the sidelines and is now ready to pose for pictures. This one always had loads of talent, but has had to deal with physical problems. Two strong half-mile moves since the race indicate he came out of the race in good order. BLOWOUT gave Peace Chant a battle at Santa Anita, losing by a length in a very fast race. Three months off since the race is a bit of a concern, though. KAPALUA BAY showed ability in two starts last year. Ron Ellis can get horses ready to fire off a layoff, so look out.
RACE TEN
The 68th running of the Hollywood Gold Cup begins and ends with LAVA MAN. One of the greatest California breds in history, LAVA MAN will be attempting to match Native Diver's accomplishment of three straight Gold Cup victories. Though the only chink in LAVA MAN's armor has been racing outside his native state, his ability to bounce back from failed travels is storied. Like last year, LAVA MAN used the Whittingham Handicap as a tuneup for the Gold Cup. MOLENGAO has quietly become a force this year and has the best chance of knocking LAVA MAN off his pedestal. MOLENGAO's romping victory in the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap puts him right on edge. A.P ARROW ships in from the east coast for powerhouse trainer Todd Pletcher. He captured the Skip Away Handicap at Gulfstream Park earlier in the year and was second in the 2005 Super Derby in Louisiana.
RACE ELEVEN
AWESOME FEAT was late on the scene for the place in her initial start June 9. With that race under her belt and Espinoza back in the saddle, expect a smasher from the daughter of Awesome Again. ANCIENT TALE finished behind 'FEAT, but did all the dirty working battling on the front end. She, too will benefit from the experience. JEN'S NEW CHAPTER chased the talented Glorified here opening week but hasn't been seen since. She's got the ability, but some gaps in her work tab are a concern.
Best Bet-MINISTER BLAIR (3)
__________________
CALDER
Race 1 -
6 MAUVAIS' COYOTE looks strong when dropping to the $5K level on the dirt after hitting the board in 3 of 5 sprints vs. better on the turf. 5 GO FLY A KITE will try and make it two wins in a row after responding to a drop in competition with a victory at this level and distance. 4 ORIENTAL BEAUTY, second to Go Fly A Kite at this distance on May 26, stretches out after finishing fourth behind similar at 6 furlongs.
6-5-4
Race 2 -
2 BLUE PEPSI LODGE will try to win on the turf for the first time after responding to a drop in competition with a victory vs. $25K claimers on a sealed track listed as 'good'. 3 NOT ACCLAIM, a 6-time turf winner, which includes a stakes-placed performance at the distance on May 12, shifts back to the grass after finishing a well-meant second vs. similar on the main track. 8 CALL ME PETE, another from trainer Kirk Ziadie (Not Acclaim), drops to a level where he dueled throughout and held sway to notch his third turf victory (May 28) from five local turf starts (5-3-0-1). 6 WORLD WAR, third behind Not Acclaim on the dirt last out, must be respected on either surface.
2-3-8-6
Race 3 -
5 CLOSING NUMBER should be ready to score after finishing a willing second vs. $32K maidens at this distance last out. 3 B L'S TSUMANI drops and turns back with blinkers added after dueling for the lead and tiring vs. special weight competition at 5 1/2 furlongs on a 'good' track. 2 MS B'S SNUCK IN is stretching out around 1-turn after dueling throughout and getting beat three-quarters of a length vs. $32K maidens at 2 furlongs in the slop.
5-3-2
Race 4 -
7 DEAD RED is stretching out around 2-turns after hitting the board in 3 of 7 races vs. some of the best turf sprinters in South Florida. Note that the son of Out Of Place has the pedigree needed to handle 7 1/2 furlongs. 9 BLACK SNAKE, a $260K son of More Than Ready, who is 8-2-1-1 on the turf, hopes to return to the grass after showing little sprinting in the slop last out. 8 BARGAIN BARRY proved he could win here on the turf when he used his tactical speed to defeat this caliber of competition on Apr. 25. 2 ZENFULLY, 5 for 8 in the money on the turf, which includes a $25K "two-lifetime" score here at the distance (May 19), hopes to compete on the grass after showing early interest and stopping on the dirt.
7-9-8-2
Race 5 -
8 CALASON gets the call after finishing a much-improved second - at this level and distance - on a sealed 'fast' track last out. 4 HARDTOBEAT BOB is stretching out slightly after closing well on a sealed 'sloppy' track to finish second vs. similar at a mile & 70 yards. 1 MANOLO MANOLO stretches out a mile and a sixteenth after making a middle move and fading to finish fourth behind Hardtobeat Bob last out.
8-4-1
Race 6 -
1A CHRISSY'S HONOR, in an entry with 1 ARCH NEMESIS , turns back to 7 1/2 furlongs after leading every step of the way to defeat $25K "two-lifetime" claimers at a mile and a sixteenth on a 'good' turf. 4 CHELLY B moves into the winners bracket after stalking early and drawing clear late to defeat $32K maidens on a 'good' turf. 8 AVIANO merits respect - especially if it rains - after drawing off to defeat $40K maidens on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 2 TILT MY HORNS beaten only 2 lengths on the turf vs. multiple winners on May 31, hopes to return to the lawn after chasing the pace and fading on the main track in the 6-furlong $50K Swept Away.
1A-4-8-2
Race 7 -
3 SEATTLE FIZZ faces winners after drawing clear on a sealed 'fast' track to break his maiden at the distance by 6 1/2 lengths. 2 STRIKING FORCE drops and stretches out after showing speed and tiring vs. $16K "two-lifetime" types at 5 1/2 furlongs (May 13). 8 TOMORROWS PICK merits respect today when he stretches out around 2-turns after showing speed and fading late in a pair vs. similar at seven-eighths of a mile.
3-2-8
Race 8 -
7 MAMI NENA showed promise sprinting on the grass here when she encountered early trouble (steadied) and was beaten less than 3 lengths at this level and distance last out. 11 BALLERINA BUNNY drops to the $40K level after dueling for the lead and tiring to finish fourth vs. maiden special weight competition last Sunday. 4 DIMESTORE DOLLY will try the grass after showing speed and finishing second in three consecutive sprints on the dirt, including one at this level on May 21. Trainer Kirk Ziadie tabs apprentice David Cardoso to ride. 9 SMOKE GRANTED, a good closing third at this level and distance last out, should sit in the catbird seat behind the hot pace scenario expected.
7-11-4-9
Race 9 -
4 ARIEL BRIGHT wears blinkers after a sparkling career debut in which she set the pace - on a sealed 'sloppy' track - before weakening to finish third - beaten only 1 1/2 lengths. 6 ANTONOVA will be treated with Lasix after running into a buzz saw named Yonagucci in her 4 1/2-furlong career debut on a sealed 'sloppy' track. Trainer Ed Plesa Jr., who has two in the race, has Roimes Chirinos atop the daughter of Halo's Image and Abel Castellano Jr. guiding first-time starter 2 MADDIES' REWARD. The half to multiple stakes winner Sea Of Green has trained sharply in preparation for this assignment. 1 TEQUILA LIGHT is stretching out after showing speed and tiring to finish third in what should proved to be a useful 4 1/2-furlong career debut.
4-6-2-1
Race 10 -
7 STAR COMMANDO is turning back to a mile after responding to the drop in competition with a third place finish vs. this caliber of competition at a mile & 70 yards. 1 C. R DANCING FOX, second at this distance on May 25, turns back after closing to finish fourth behind Star Commando last out. 5 PRIVATE ALERT is stepping up after posting speed figures good enough to beat this group when finishing third in a pair of $10K "three-lifetime" claimers.
7-1-5
Race 11 -
3 FORTUNATE TRAIL, 2 for 4 in the money at the distance, drops & stretches out after his impressive 3-race win streak ended when he dueled and finished second vs. $12.5K starter allowance at 5 furlongs on a sealed 'sloppy' track. Trainer Kirk Ziadie, 28% with horses stretching out, tabs Jermaine Bridgmohan to ride. 2 EXCELLENT JOB, a 6-time winner at the distance, is stretching out after drawing clear, as the favorite, to defeat this level of competition at a mile. 5 MEAN KISSER turns back to a mile & 70 yards after setting the pace and getting beat a nose in the 12-furlong New York New York on Belmont Day. The 6-year-old, who has shown the ability to win when setting or stalking the pace, can sit a 'key' second flight trip today.
3-2-5
Race 12 -
5 JUST FOR KEEPS is turning back to 6 furlongs after her impressive 2-race win streak ended when she dueled and faded to finish second vs. "three-lifetime" allowance competition at seven-eighths of a mile. 3 GOTHIC BEAUTY, 2 for 3 at the distance, stretches out after a nice return from a 7-month plus vacation in which she stalked the pace and finished third behind pacesetting 2 REASON TO REJOICE. The latter, who does her best running on the lead, stretches out looking for her second career win at the distance (8-1-1-2).
5-3-2
Race 13 -
4 NORTHERNBAMAGIRL is cutting back a tad after closing to finish a good second vs. this level of competition at a mile and a sixteenth on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 3 A WISH OR TWO AGO is stretching out an additional 70 yards after posting the best last-race speed figure (49) when beaten a neck at a mile on a 'sealed' fast track. 1 LIZA ANN will depart from the rail after grabbing the lead mid-race before fading late to finish third behind Nothernbamagirl last out.
BEST BET: RACE 9 - ARIEL BRIGHT
LONG SHOT: RACE 2 - ISLAND SKY
4-3-1
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Brian Gabrielle
Bonus Play: Proposition 1 Special vs Proposition 2 Special
Take Charles Howell III (40-1), 1/6 unit: Where have you gone Thurston Howell the Third? After a huge start---five top-10s including a win in his first seven tournaments of 2007---he’s finished inside the top-25 once, missed two cuts and withdrew from the Memorial. He’s still in the top-5 in FedEx Cup. He finished T51 at the U.S. Open, took last week off, and should be ready to go. He’s only played the Buick Open once, back in 2003, and he finished T38. Take John Rollins (66-1), 1/6 unit: Rollins has also slowed after a strong start to ’07, but he averages a very respectable 3.44 birdies per round (T42 on Tour). He’s coming off an MC on a tough course outside of Hartford with all the wind and rain. Warwick Hills should be a nice chance to get back to his consistent form in the middle of the season. This pick, like Thursty the Third above, is about rehabilitation on a kinder, gentler course. Take Daniel Chopra (80-1), 1/6 unit: Not sure what’s up with Chopra. He shot a 1-under 69 last Thursday on the aforementioned tough course then promptly withdrew after 12 holes at 6-over because of illness. I see him as a Pat Perez type: very talented, very temperamental. But Chopra showed signs of rising to the occasion late last year with some strong finishes. He just needs to get to Sunday within striking distance. What’s weird, given what seems to be an uneven temperament, is that he’s an excellent putter.
maddux sports
Pick is NY Mets -125
Big Al McMordie
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)
Jun 30, 2007 7:05 PM EDT
Play: Total: Over
These two ballclubs have a lot in common. They have almost identical records, have owners that beieve they can build for the future with prospects and without spending a lot of money on high-priced free agents, and - as of next year - will have two of the best ballparks in baseball. The new park in southwest Washington is going to be spectacular, and Nats fans and management are hoping that they can quickly put a product on the field that will match the quality of the venue and it's surroundings. But for now, it's series like this one which both franchises view as critical if, for no other reason, they feel they are extremely winnable. And so far, both teams have had their share of success against the other. Last year, the series was knotted at three games apiece. This year, the Pirates seem to have the stronger team if only slightly. But no matter who wins, each of these teams have a tendency to put up runs when playing the other. In the last eight matchups between these two squads, there has been a total of nine or more runs in six of those contests. RFK stadium is proving this year to be not nearly the pitcher's park that everyone thought it was. Take the 'over'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Ben Burns
Game: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Jun 30 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Reason: After getting humiliated 11-1 here yesterday, the Tigers should enjoy several advantages for today's game. For starters, Detroit has gone a terrific 17-9 when playing during the afternoon. The Tigers are also averaging a whopping six runs per game, including 5.8 vs. right-handed starters. The Twins, on the other hand, are averaging a mere 4.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters. Additionally, Miller is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA for the season and comes off six shutout innings in his last start. Meanwhile, Slowey lost his last start, allowing five runs (4 earned) in five innings. That gives him a 5.51 ERA his last three starts. Consider a play on DETROIT
CAPPERS ACCESS
(Sat) MLB Brewers
(Sat) MLB W. Sox
(Sat) MLB Blue Jays
george smeader
MLB Oakland vs. New York (A) []
Take New York (A) Yankees
We will play on the moneyline at -147. The Yankees stack up in our MLB system with a 6.0 rating. Our system is based on several years of experience, practice and fine tuning with solid year over year returns. Ratings are not multipliers on base unit betting. Our ratings system is on a 1-8 scale, but we will never release a play lower than a 5.9. Winning is our business and businss is good.
Bobby Maxwell
In this battle of left handers, we're going with the Giants and Noah Lowry (7-6, 3.61 ERA) in this one to continue the home dominance over the D'Backs in this one.
Lowry is 6-1 in San Francisco this season with a 2.61 ERA and last time he pitched at home was Sunday when he allowed one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings in a 7-2 win over the Yankees. Lowry and the Giants have won five straight games against Arizona dating back to his 2005 starts. Since 2005 he has held the D'Backs to three or less runs on five of six outings
On the mound for Arizona is lefty Doug Davis (5-8, 4.16 ERA). He's been bad on the road, posting a 2-6 mark this season. He's given up four runs or more in three of his last four starts. Davis has seen the Giants twice this season with a win and loss to his credit. In San Francisco he allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings in a 4-2 loss.
In a series so dominated by the home team, no way we're going against the Giants in this one. Play Lowry to shut down the D'Backs in this one.
2? SAN FRANCISCO
locksmith sports
MLB
on Kansas City -108 (action)
The Royals are playing their best baseball of the season by far having won 5 straight now and we'll continue riding their hot streak here today. The Sox are a pathetic 9-18 against the money line in June games this season. The Royals are 9-3 against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. The Sox just can't get things together this season. Take KC.
info plays
3* on Minnesota +143
(Listing Slowey and Miller)
Kevin Slowey does not have a loss yet this season with 27 plus innings under his belt as a starter. He is definitely worth a shot today as a nice-sized underdog. Minnesota has won their last two games over Detroit in dominant fashion. The Twins won 16-4 previously and 11-1 yesterday. The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings with the Tigers. The Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Minnesota.
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins Jun 30 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Reason: I'm laying a rare price with the Braves on Saturday. After a fantastic start to the season, Tim Hudson hit a rough patch. But he looks to be getting back to form as of late. In his last three outings, the Atlanta righty has allowed just five earned runs and 20 base runners in 19 2/3 IP. That's a strong, 2.28 ERA & 1.02 WHIP to go along with a healthy, 12-to-2 K/BB ratio. Hudson owns good evening numbers and he has had no trouble at all in his career against the Marlins. The veteran hurler is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 10 starts against the Fish, including a 3-0, 2.53 mark at this venue. He'll likely get plenty of support tonight. The Braves average 5.9 RPG in road night games against right-handers. They'll face Kim, who has a 6.14 ERA in 13 appearances against Atlanta. Making matters worse for the Marlins is that they only score 3.8 RPG in home night tilts against righties. Look for the Braves to hand the Marlins a second straight loss in this weekend set. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Robert Ross
Game: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Jun 30 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
Reason: Chicago had its four-game win streak snapped last night: it will look to snap K.C.'s five-game streak tonight. Ozzie is 72-55 as White Sox manager in road division games. K.C. starter Perez is 0-4, 5.70 lifetime vs. the Pale Hose. The CHI WHITE SOX are 69-47 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 9-28 against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. Take Chicago!
Big Al's #1 National League Game of the Month!
At 7:05 pm (time change), our National League Game of the Month is on the Colorado Rockies over Houston. Lefty Jeff Francis will get the start for the Rockies and the Astros struggle mightily vs. southpaws. This season, Houston is hitting just .247 vs. lefties and scoring a paltry 3.9 runs per game. But even those meager numbers will be tough to reach tonight vs. Francis, as he has surrendered 2 earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. Jason Jennings will be Francis' mound opponent, and his team has won just two of his last nine starts. Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
JIMMY BOYD
MLB Chicago (A) vs. Kansas City []
Take Kansas City Royals
1 Unit on Kansas City -108 (action) The Royals are playing their best baseball of the season by far having won 5 straight now and we'll continue riding their hot streak here today. The Sox are a pathetic 9-18 against the money line in June games this season. The Royals are 9-3 against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. The Sox just can't get things together this season. Take KC.
LARRY COOK
MLB Minnesota vs. Detroit []
Take Minnesota Twins
3* on Minnesota +139 (Listing Slowey and Miller) Kevin Slowey does not have a loss yet this season with 27 plus innings under his belt as a starter. He is definitely worth a shot today as a nice-sized underdog. Minnesota has won their last two games over Detroit in dominant fashion. The Twins won 16-4 previously and 11-1 yesterday. The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings with the Tigers. The Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Minnesota.
WUNDERDOG
BELMONT PARK Race #THREE (2:00 PM Eastern)
(# 5) BIG APPLE DANDY - Former high-profile stakes performer has been racing in little spurts for about two years. Has some physical ailments, but can still fire a big race and can do it off the bench. He's working well for trainer Bruce Levine, and I think he's ready for a big effort.
(# 2) Stonewood - Claimed last out by the Contessa-Laudati operation from Mike Hushion for $30K. New connections send him immediately into a stakes and why not? He has big speed, is in great form at present and faces a whole bunch of "refreshed" runners. Big chance "on the engine.
(# 1) Yankee Mon - Another of the group comin! g off a layoff, though he raced in early April. This marks his first start for the Zito barn and the works aren't bad. Saves all the ground.
black widow sports
MLB
toronto -138
(List Halladay)
Roy Halladay has been on fire lately and we will ride him today. Halladay is 9-2 on the season and is 3-0 in his last 3 starts featuring a 3.22 ERA. The Blue Jays are 7-0 in their last 7 Saturday games. The Blue Jays are 9-0 in Halladay's last 9 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Blue Jays are 22-5 in Halladay's last 27 starts during game 2 of a series. Opposing hitters fear this guy as they should. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in Halladay’s last 5 starts against the Mariners. The Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. We are receiving the right value today with Halladay on the mound. Take the Blue Jays.
Michael Cannon Money Train
Saturday's Plays:
20 Dime -
PADRES (With Peavy as listed pitcher)
10 Dime -
INDIANS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (With Howell and Sabathia as listed pitchers)
5 Dime -
A's (With Gaudin and Igawa as listed pitchers)
