<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+3.20 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">39</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">45</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+10.50 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">123</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">145</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+15.41 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
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Atlanta –1½ +1.10 over FLORIDA
Funny game, baseball is. The Braves have now won four straight and have scored 35 times over that stretch, which is pretty remarkable when you consider they scored just once in their previous five games. Atlanta has now recorded 36 base hits in its past two ball games. This is a team that went from seeing BB’s to beach balls overnight and there’s no reason to stay away from them here against Byung Hyun Kim and the ice-cold Marlins. When a team is hot the last thing you want to do is help them out with free passes. Josh Johnson got burnt last night by walking people and the same fate awaits Kim because, he, too, has trouble with location. He’s already walked 32 in 45 innings and there’s definitely more walks forthcoming here and likely plenty of runs to follow. Kim has a 7.84 ERA in his own barn, where he’s walked 20 and given up 24 hits in 20 innings. That’s 44 base-runners in 20 innings of work at home. His ERA in four June starts is 6.26 and he’s only had two good starts in eight tries as a member of the Fish. In addition, the Marlins have the second worst home record in the majors and they’ve lost five of their last six and 12 of their last 18 games. Tim Hudson needs no introduction and while his numbers are a little off this season, this has very little to do with playing on Hudson. It has everything to do with playing against Kim and also playing an extremely hot Braves squad vs a laboring Marlins squad. Play: Atlanta –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
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Colorado +1.01 over Houston
Wow, the Rockies have dropped eight in a row and it’s usually best to stay away from cold teams. However, Colorado is too talented and a bunch of those losses can attributed to just plain bad luck. They had the lead in the last inning of both losses to the Astros and the pen just couldn’t hold it. Still, the Rockies are just four games under .500 and the Astros are 12. Colorado still leads the league with the fewest errors and Matt Holliday still leads the league in batting average. Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe and Willy Taveras are in the top 18 in batting average too. So, the Rockies lead the league defensively and they have four players in the top 18 in batting average and that does not equal up to long losing streaks. It says here they snap out of it today. Jeff Francis was hit hard in Chicago in his last start but that was with the wind blowing out at Wrigley. Even with that brutal start at Wrigley, Francis is still 6-1 with a 2.51 ERA in his last 10 starts. Meanwhile, Jason Jennings has one win in eight starts for the Astros. The team itself is just 2-6 when Jennings starts. Jennings and the Astros is one of the least appealing favorite combinations in the business. Play: Colorado +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
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NY Mets –1½ +1.33 over PHILADELPHIA
If you’re ever going to lay 1½-runs in a ball game this is the venue to do it at. This park is one of the top two hitter’s parks in the majors because of its small dimensions. The Mets came in here yesterday and promptly went yard four times in a double-header sweep. Now with Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber on the DL the Phillies are forced to go with a minor-leaguer that’s not close to being ready for this opportunity. J.A. Happ was called up from Ottawa to fill-in for this start but he’ll be heading right back down afterwards unless a miracle happens. In 13 minor-league starts, Happ posted a very average 4.02 ERA. He allowed 62 hits in 62 innings and walked 34 batters over that stretch. He was on The DL earlier in the year and since returning has made just three starts in which he went a combined 12 innings and allowed 16 hits and five earned runs. He has not pitched past the fifth inning in five straight minor-league starts. What that means is that the pathetic bullpen of the Philies can get some early work and remember, that’s after a DH yesterday, in which the pen worked over eight innings. This one just sets up beautifully for the Mets and we’re calling it a blowout. Play: NY Mets –1½ +1.33 (Risking 2 units).<o></o>
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Chicago +1.00 over KANSAS CITY
The equation here couldn’t be more simpler and it goes like this: When we don’t have to lay anything against Odalis Perez you can pencil us in, period. Perez is among the biggest stiffs in the business, as he’s allowed 110 hits in 83 innings and at home he’s 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA. Not even the White Sox can make this guy look good. He’s lasted just 14 innings over his last three starts and his ERA over that stretch is 7.07. He’s consistently brutal, as the league has hit him hard all year and this month in five starts the league has averaged a whopping .365 against him. In addition, the Royals have won just six times in 21 tries against left-handed starters and will face one here in Johnny Danks. Get in line. Play: Chicago +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
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BALTIMORE +1.28 over L.A. Angels
Once again we find Bartolo Colon favored and as long as he struggles we’ll continue to take back a tag against him. Colon is 1-3 with an 8.54 ERA in his last six starts and that pretty much says it all. In four June starts, all against NL competition, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Houston and Pittsburgh, Colon surrendered 26 runs in 32 innings for a 6.95 ERA. That weak-hitting quartet averaged .348 against him. Now he’ll step back in against the AL where he allowed 35 hits in his last 23 innings against AL competition covering four starts. It’s also worth noting that the Angels were just swept by the Royals and we’re very fortunate to get a win last night after a ninth inning rally. Brian Burres is a bit risky although his numbers are very good. Still, his ERA is a very respectable 3.36 and in five of his last seven starts he allowed two earned runs or fewer. His durability is in question and he did not look sharp on his last start but the fact is, he’s faced some very strong opposition all year and has put together a solid campaign thus far. He’s already faced the Indians twice, Boston, Seattle, Toronto and these same Angels on May 31 in which he allowed just three hits in six innings. The league has hit just .239 off Burres. Bottom line is that Colon is not sharp at all and hasn’t been the same since he underwent surgery after the ‘05 season. Play: Baltimore +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>Atlanta –1½ +1.10 over FLORIDA
Funny game, baseball is. The Braves have now won four straight and have scored 35 times over that stretch, which is pretty remarkable when you consider they scored just once in their previous five games. Atlanta has now recorded 36 base hits in its past two ball games. This is a team that went from seeing BB’s to beach balls overnight and there’s no reason to stay away from them here against Byung Hyun Kim and the ice-cold Marlins. When a team is hot the last thing you want to do is help them out with free passes. Josh Johnson got burnt last night by walking people and the same fate awaits Kim because, he, too, has trouble with location. He’s already walked 32 in 45 innings and there’s definitely more walks forthcoming here and likely plenty of runs to follow. Kim has a 7.84 ERA in his own barn, where he’s walked 20 and given up 24 hits in 20 innings. That’s 44 base-runners in 20 innings of work at home. His ERA in four June starts is 6.26 and he’s only had two good starts in eight tries as a member of the Fish. In addition, the Marlins have the second worst home record in the majors and they’ve lost five of their last six and 12 of their last 18 games. Tim Hudson needs no introduction and while his numbers are a little off this season, this has very little to do with playing on Hudson. It has everything to do with playing against Kim and also playing an extremely hot Braves squad vs a laboring Marlins squad. Play: Atlanta –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Colorado +1.01 over Houston
Wow, the Rockies have dropped eight in a row and it’s usually best to stay away from cold teams. However, Colorado is too talented and a bunch of those losses can attributed to just plain bad luck. They had the lead in the last inning of both losses to the Astros and the pen just couldn’t hold it. Still, the Rockies are just four games under .500 and the Astros are 12. Colorado still leads the league with the fewest errors and Matt Holliday still leads the league in batting average. Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe and Willy Taveras are in the top 18 in batting average too. So, the Rockies lead the league defensively and they have four players in the top 18 in batting average and that does not equal up to long losing streaks. It says here they snap out of it today. Jeff Francis was hit hard in Chicago in his last start but that was with the wind blowing out at Wrigley. Even with that brutal start at Wrigley, Francis is still 6-1 with a 2.51 ERA in his last 10 starts. Meanwhile, Jason Jennings has one win in eight starts for the Astros. The team itself is just 2-6 when Jennings starts. Jennings and the Astros is one of the least appealing favorite combinations in the business. Play: Colorado +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>NY Mets –1½ +1.33 over PHILADELPHIA
If you’re ever going to lay 1½-runs in a ball game this is the venue to do it at. This park is one of the top two hitter’s parks in the majors because of its small dimensions. The Mets came in here yesterday and promptly went yard four times in a double-header sweep. Now with Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber on the DL the Phillies are forced to go with a minor-leaguer that’s not close to being ready for this opportunity. J.A. Happ was called up from Ottawa to fill-in for this start but he’ll be heading right back down afterwards unless a miracle happens. In 13 minor-league starts, Happ posted a very average 4.02 ERA. He allowed 62 hits in 62 innings and walked 34 batters over that stretch. He was on The DL earlier in the year and since returning has made just three starts in which he went a combined 12 innings and allowed 16 hits and five earned runs. He has not pitched past the fifth inning in five straight minor-league starts. What that means is that the pathetic bullpen of the Philies can get some early work and remember, that’s after a DH yesterday, in which the pen worked over eight innings. This one just sets up beautifully for the Mets and we’re calling it a blowout. Play: NY Mets –1½ +1.33 (Risking 2 units).<o
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></o>Chicago +1.00 over KANSAS CITY
The equation here couldn’t be more simpler and it goes like this: When we don’t have to lay anything against Odalis Perez you can pencil us in, period. Perez is among the biggest stiffs in the business, as he’s allowed 110 hits in 83 innings and at home he’s 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA. Not even the White Sox can make this guy look good. He’s lasted just 14 innings over his last three starts and his ERA over that stretch is 7.07. He’s consistently brutal, as the league has hit him hard all year and this month in five starts the league has averaged a whopping .365 against him. In addition, the Royals have won just six times in 21 tries against left-handed starters and will face one here in Johnny Danks. Get in line. Play: Chicago +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>BALTIMORE +1.28 over L.A. Angels
Once again we find Bartolo Colon favored and as long as he struggles we’ll continue to take back a tag against him. Colon is 1-3 with an 8.54 ERA in his last six starts and that pretty much says it all. In four June starts, all against NL competition, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Houston and Pittsburgh, Colon surrendered 26 runs in 32 innings for a 6.95 ERA. That weak-hitting quartet averaged .348 against him. Now he’ll step back in against the AL where he allowed 35 hits in his last 23 innings against AL competition covering four starts. It’s also worth noting that the Angels were just swept by the Royals and we’re very fortunate to get a win last night after a ninth inning rally. Brian Burres is a bit risky although his numbers are very good. Still, his ERA is a very respectable 3.36 and in five of his last seven starts he allowed two earned runs or fewer. His durability is in question and he did not look sharp on his last start but the fact is, he’s faced some very strong opposition all year and has put together a solid campaign thus far. He’s already faced the Indians twice, Boston, Seattle, Toronto and these same Angels on May 31 in which he allowed just three hits in six innings. The league has hit just .239 off Burres. Bottom line is that Colon is not sharp at all and hasn’t been the same since he underwent surgery after the ‘05 season. Play: Baltimore +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
