June 30th Analysis

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Today’s Most Undervalued Team
Giants

Dave Robert’s two run error cost me an 8-0 night last night. However, I have no problem going right back on the Giants, as there is not a team today trading more below their intrinsic value. I did not expect linesmakers to open this game any different than what they did, nor did I expect many value bettors to jump on the Giants and bid their price up. However, there exists a lot of hidden value on this slumping ball club in this game. Lowry does have his downfalls. His propensity to walk a lot of batters and get himself in early inning jams puts him in the stretch all too often and forces him to accumulate a high pitch count early in games. His inability to put forth solid starts on the road makes him a one dimensional home pitcher. His flyball tendencies make him liability in small parks. His propensity to nibble around the plate makes him vulnerable against veteran/patient lineups that do not chase. However, not one of these liabilities should come into play in this game, as he pitches in his spacious home park against a young and aggressive lineup that has struggled hitting the changeup all season. Lowry has once again been dominant at home this season, coming into today’s game with a sub three home ERA, which includes his last start against the Yankees where he allowed just one run and two hits. Lowry has dominated the Diamondbacks throughout his career, especially in his home starts. Although he has yet to face them at home this season, his last two home starts against them were both shutout performances. Lowry’s increased velocity on his fastball has once again made him a dominant force against left handed hitters, as they are batting well under .200 against him this season. This does not bode well for a team that has a few dangerous hitters from the left side. This will also put more pressure on the Diamondbacks right handed hitters. Only two of their right handed batters have at least eight at bats against Lowry, and come into today’s game a combined 3 for 21 against him, while the remaining right handed hitters have predominantly struggled against finesse pitchers this season. The Diamondbacks are far less potent against southpaws and less productive away from home. Although Lowry has not been eating up a lot of innings in most of his starts, the aggressive style of the Diamondbacks hitters should allow him to not accumulate as high of a pitch count compared to the more patient lineups he faces. The addition of Messenger adds needed depth to the Giants bullpen, and makes them a decent unit.

There is not a more deflated ERA in baseball than Davis’s 4.16 this season, as his WHIP of 1.72 is usually accompanied with an ERA well in the fives. Last month, he was supporting an ERA in the three’s with his high WHIP, and a slowdown was imminent. Davis’s six plus ERA this month is more of an indicator of his true worth, as he could only get out of so many jams that his high walk total puts him in. The last couple of weeks he has been working hard in cutting down his walk total, a deficiency that he seems to have accomplished a bit. However, it came with a price, as he has been much more hittable in his last two outings, allowing 19 hits in just ten innings of work. Davis has never been as effective on the road, and has really struggled in this park. Their appears to be a mental deficiency of pitching in his home town that makes him try too hard, as it has shown with his presence on the mound as well as his numbers. The Giants have veteran hitters that will not chase Davis out of the zone, and have three hitters with solid lifetime success against him. Davis’s high pitch count early in games does not make him a candidate to go deep in this one. Although the Diamondbacks underbelly of their bullpen has pitched well, they have a couple front end pitchers that are known to struggle against the Giants.
 

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Are the Yankees Actually Undervalued?
It is not often that you can find fundamental value on the Yankees, as their true worth is consistently marked up in anticipation of public money. However, it appears that public money is finally becoming fed up with backing the worst ROI in baseball, and may wait to park their money back on them when they have one of their veteran pitchers on the mound. This has made the Yankees a rare value play at most online shops, as they are trading below my -152 consider betting price. Igawa has really struggled in his first season with the team. However, when sent down to the minors, he improved on his delivery, and his solid performances down their seemed to carry over in his first start back where he put forth a respectful start against the Giants last week. Although it was apparent that he was overpaid from the onset, he does have more talent than his current numbers would lead one to believe, and his propensity to allow the long ball should be helped out by this park and the lack of power the A’s lineup brings to the table. This is the first time in which Igawa will pitch to the same team, a variable that he may be able to feed off of. This holds especially true since his first start against the A’s might have been his best start of the season. Mussina’s ability to eat up seven innings last night gives the Yankees more leverage in handling Igawa. The A’s are a young team that feeds off momentum, something that is clearly lacking during their east coast road trip.

As expected Gaudins solid season of last year and solid start to this year is getting a touch of realism this month, as he is finally coming back down to earth. He is a pitcher that lacks overpowering pitches and heavily relies on his command to get hitters out. However, this variable has clearly been lacking of late as he has walked 18 batters in his last 28 innings of work. This does not bode well when facing a Yankees lineup that will not go out of the strike zone. In the past, Gaudin was able to get out of the jams his walk total created by pitching well in the stretch, something that he just has not been able to do in recent outs. Guadin has also really struggled against left handed bats, especially of late. They have been hitting him hard, which has forced him to try to pitch around them- which is the catalyst to his near 2 WHIP against left handed hitters. Facing six left handed hitters today will certainly put Guadin in situations in which he has not shown to be comfortable in. In past starts, Guadin has been backed by a solid bullpen, which gave the A’s leverage in taking him out before things turn for the worse. However, with three key injuries, the A’s bullpen has now become a liability, and should allow this slumping Yankees lineup to have ideal scoring opportunities throughout this game.
 

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Throw in the Metropolitans and you have a trifecta. Good to see ya around, Cappy has been asking about you.

~T~
 

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Thanks for the writeups, BG. A question on the Yankees. How far below your intrinsic value are they? I see -146 at Matchbook right now.
 

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BG, thoughts on the Braves and Dodgers if you can explain.

Probably 2 of the more efficiently priced games today. I valued the Braves at -139, which is exactly what they are trading at Matchbook. Hudson has put forth solid numbers in his career against the Marlins, but those numbers may be misleading as there are a few hitters in the lineup with success against him. If you look at five of his last six starts against above average lineups this season (including his last start against the Marlins) he appears overmatched. He is quitetly slowing down and resembling last years form. That said, I require a larger price on Kim to warrant a play on the Marlins. He just isn't effective anymore at the big league level, has struggled against the Braves in the past, and is backed by a sub par and overworked bullpen in which the Braves have had past success against. No play in this game for me.

As far as the Padres, I valued them at -104/Dodgers +104, so there is not enough value on either team to warrant a play. Both Peavy and Penny are top tier pitchers, but both overpriced and overachieving. Both have favorable situationaly fundamentals working for them. Great game to watch, but not a great game to bet in my opinion.
 

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Thanks for the writeups, BG. A question on the Yankees. How far below your intrinsic value are they? I see -146 at Matchbook right now.


I valued the Yankees at -172 and would reccommmend betting them at
-152 or better.

Good luck.
 

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There's more?

Hope all is well T. I am on them as well. Best of luck.

I love reading your write-ups and betting your plays, but I don't understand your method of releasing just some of them. You mention in passing that you are also on the Mets today. You said you went 7-1 yesterday.

If I follow your plays, I like to follow them all, because you know what the Gambling Gods do when you only play some of the picks, don't you?

Thanks for coming back to the forum. You mean alot to so many of us. Please address my concerns. Thanks.
 

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Hey BG,

Thanks for posting again.. I sent you a e-mail yesterday I dont know if you received it?

Do you have any thoughts on the CWS/KC game tonight?

Thanks and GL today.
 

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I love reading your write-ups and betting your plays, but I don't understand your method of releasing just some of them. You mention in passing that you are also on the Mets today. You said you went 7-1 yesterday.

If I follow your plays, I like to follow them all, because you know what the Gambling Gods do when you only play some of the picks, don't you?

Thanks for coming back to the forum. You mean alot to so many of us. Please address my concerns. Thanks.


I don't want to digress to such a topic, but have my reasons. I am content with the manner I am doing it now.
Good luck.
 

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Hey BG,

Thanks for posting again.. I sent you a e-mail yesterday I dont know if you received it?

Do you have any thoughts on the CWS/KC game tonight?

Thanks and GL today.


Haven't been able to respond to all the emails but will today.

The Royals game appears to be another game that seems efficiently priced, and is a dangerous game to bet on, as you have 2 pitchers, 2 lineups, and 2 bullpens that are highly inconsistent and volatile. I am not a big fan of Danks, as I am one of the few that don’t see much upside with him. He has been showing his youth of late with his lack of command with his increased well hit ball ratio and walk total. Backed by a highly inconsistent bullpen can allow a momentum feeding team like the Royals to carrying their momentum into this game.
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Perez is hard to figure out, as in reality he is a better pitcher than his numbers of the last two years would lead one to believe. However, his lack of mental strength and accumulated injuries can be enough of a catalyst for him to continue to underachieve until he calls it quits. Valuing him is hard on a start by start basis. That said, he is a streaky pitcher that has put forth two solid starts in a row and handled the White Sox easily in his only start against them this year. Backed by an improved bullpen should make his lack of eating innings less of a concern. But again put an inconsistent pitcher on the mound against an inconsistent lineup, and anything can happen.
<o:p> </o:p>
I wouldn’t touch this game.
 

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Buffet... congrats on the great day yesterday, great writeups today, i'm on yanks and mets big...
Any opinion on Cards and Reds? I didn't trust Wainright at first but he has been pitching well..
 

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Buffet... congrats on the great day yesterday, great writeups today, i'm on yanks and mets big...
Any opinion on Cards and Reds? I didn't trust Wainright at first but he has been pitching well..
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I am on the Cardinals, as I value them at -133 and would bet them at -116 or better. Wainwright has been a risk this season, as he has been underachieving most of the season. His curveball has not been as dominant and his strategy as a starter compared to a reliever has hindered his effectiveness a bit. However, he still has a lot of upside and is far better than his current numbers would indicate. He has looked better on the mound each month as he seems to have re-found his curveball and readjusted to the starting role. Backed by the better bullpen should allow the Cardinals to have the better pitcher on the mound throughout this game.
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Lohse has a great arsenal of pitches, but still does not really know how to use them to his best ability. He had shown his ability early in the season, but has regressed significantly since them. Coming off a start in which he had allowed eight runs would think he is in bounceback mode this start. However, he is a streaky pitcher who has never really made the most of his bounce back opportunities (actually his last start was a bounce back start). He has pitched well at home this year, but his home success defies fundamental logic. Risky game to bet as far as having to inconsistent pitchers on the mound, but the short price on the Cardinals allows me to take on this risk.
 

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Buffet,
why even post your plays for people if your gonna leave games out? You arent doing anybody any good by doing this and could actually cost guys cash. The only types of guys who do this sort of bs stuff is jerkoffs like you. Am sure you cant even where a baseball cap cause your ego has swelled your head beyond belief. Only reason you started posting again is because you werent getting any attention and realized that all the messageboards would still go on without you.
 

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excellent write-ups BG and some interesting responses too.

I like your style.
 

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Buffet,
why even post your plays for people if your gonna leave games out? You arent doing anybody any good by doing this and could actually cost guys cash. The only types of guys who do this sort of bs stuff is jerkoffs like you. Am sure you cant even where a baseball cap cause your ego has swelled your head beyond belief. Only reason you started posting again is because you werent getting any attention and realized that all the messageboards would still go on without you.

Why do care so much about how many picks he posts or plays?

Why do you think the number of posted plays somehow is going to cost people money? Money management is not the responsibility of any gambler other than themself.

Why do you care about the reasons buffet posts or doesn't post? By suggesting that all he is doing is craving attention is that YOU yourself crave such attention and are attempting to gain said attention by posting baseless attacks in the hope of other agreeing with you.

The only "Jerkoffs" in this forum are people who blindly enter into threads created by cappers who are merely posting opinions on games. That's right OPINIONS, you don't see ANYWHERE in here that he is playing a game or posting a record.

Take your trash elsewhere son.
 

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Why do care so much about how many picks he posts or plays?

Why do you think the number of posted plays somehow is going to cost people money? Money management is not the responsibility of any gambler other than themself.

Why do you care about the reasons buffet posts or doesn't post? By suggesting that all he is doing is craving attention is that YOU yourself crave such attention and are attempting to gain said attention by posting baseless attacks in the hope of other agreeing with you.

The only "Jerkoffs" in this forum are people who blindly enter into threads created by cappers who are merely posting opinions on games. That's right OPINIONS, you don't see ANYWHERE in here that he is playing a game or posting a record.

Take your trash elsewhere son.

you must be a little slow also. Lets see if he has 5 plays one day and goes 3-2, but only posts the 2 losers and not the 3 other winning plays, how the hell is money management gonna help you. Its guys like you who want to suck guys like buffets balls who dont have a clue about betting.
Buffet posting only a few of his plays and then talking about all the other winners he had is total bullshit.
It wouldnt suprise me one bit if this wasnt his setup again to being a pay service. Amazing how the big crybaby left the site cause somebody was using his plays but then came back when he realized the site never missed a beat.
There is way better cappers on this board to follow then him.
Oh and by the way this is my opinion son. I just call them like i see them, so skip over my posts if you dont like it.
 

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. Lets see if he has 5 plays one day and goes 3-2, but only posts the 2 losers and not the 3 other winning plays, how the hell is money management gonna help you.

This is a stupid example. It might as well be the other way 'round, his posted plays hit and the non-posted miss, in which case the tailers would be much better of because BG did not post all his plays.
 

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