back to the original topic...
it is not easy, but you do not need to hit a high % like most think...55% and you are golden
as far as the books making money, the %'s of recreational bettors far outweigh the "pros" who make a iiving. It is the recreational bettor we need to thank that keep the books in business.
it is not easy, but you do not need to hit a high % like most think...55% and you are golden
as far as the books making money, the %'s of recreational bettors far outweigh the "pros" who make a iiving. It is the recreational bettor we need to thank that keep the books in business.
books win because on 50% wagers they get +110 for it and pay out $100 to the winners. Heavy volume means eventually they will win.
Turn the tables on them and find bets that pay 10 cents more on average and you have the edge and in essence you are the bookie. That pretty much sums it up (IMO).
Turn the tables on them and find bets that pay 10 cents more on average and you have the edge and in essence you are the bookie. That pretty much sums it up (IMO).
Books win because:
I doubt more than 1% of bettors have any type of historical database or have looked at one.
I doubt more than 2% of bettors know the value of different 1/2 points.
I doubt more than 3% of bettors shop every bet they place.
I doubt more than 5% of bettors understand what mathematically correlated means.
I doubt more than 10% of bettors don't overbet their bankrolls.
I doubt more than 15% of bettors have a defined bank roll.
-Sean
I doubt more than 1% of bettors have any type of historical database or have looked at one.
I doubt more than 2% of bettors know the value of different 1/2 points.
I doubt more than 3% of bettors shop every bet they place.
I doubt more than 5% of bettors understand what mathematically correlated means.
I doubt more than 10% of bettors don't overbet their bankrolls.
I doubt more than 15% of bettors have a defined bank roll.
-Sean
uppy:
A lot would say the key to winning is less in these things and more in the math...
IE:
Based on their line +154/-172, they have a true number of +/-163 with 18 cents vig, 9 on each side.
To break even on a line of -163 (before the vig) you need to hit exactly 62%. So based on this books number, they believe the team will go over 62% of the time, under 38%.
Based on numbers I have access to, the run distribution would land exactly on 3 runs 22.5% of the time.
So now we adjust the line to 3 instead of 2.5...
(p)=3 is 22.5% (the probablity of exactly 3 runs)
(p)<3 is 38% (this number remains unchanged between 2.5 and 3 runs)
(p)>3 is 39.5% (the prob. of over 2.5 minus the prob. of exactly 3 runs)
No we want to find the 'true number' that will yeald a return of 0%.
-103 gets us as close to '0' as possible.
22.5% of the time you push, and win 0 units.
38% of the time you lose 1 unit = -.38 units
39.5% of the time you win .97 (1/1.03) units = +.38 units
(0 units)+(.38 units)+(-.38)=0, these numbers are rounded off, its not exact, the true number might be -103.4 or something, but you get the point.
From here we add the 18 cents vig back in to +/-103...to -112/-106.
Back to the over2.5 -172, under +154...to break even on these lines INCLUDING the vig...you would need to go over 2.5 63.3% of the time and under 39.4% of the time to break even.
You absolutely do not need a defined bankroll.
Before the neteller collapse, my bankroll was anything I could scrounge up from any investor, friend, credit card, LOC, etc... The +EV was too much to hold anything back... It went up and down.. If you have the other things covered, risk as much as possible in a controlled manner...
Before the neteller collapse, my bankroll was anything I could scrounge up from any investor, friend, credit card, LOC, etc... The +EV was too much to hold anything back... It went up and down.. If you have the other things covered, risk as much as possible in a controlled manner...
you can do it but its not easy,,,,,, its not exciting,,,,,,, its quite boring....
it becomes a grind and the books can wear you down.........
a blind monkey should hit 50% of the games correctly, or drawing out of a hat, should equal to 50/50 over the longest stretches...... you only need to know that extra 6-7% and you can retire....... provided you dont go on tilt and your bankroll is big enough.....
it becomes a grind and the books can wear you down.........
a blind monkey should hit 50% of the games correctly, or drawing out of a hat, should equal to 50/50 over the longest stretches...... you only need to know that extra 6-7% and you can retire....... provided you dont go on tilt and your bankroll is big enough.....
