Wagerline Team Experts "System"

Search
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Messages
3,418
Tokens
I have been pondering this idea for quite some time, and I am going to give it a test run from here on out, hopefully until the end of baseball season. The objective of this system is to look at the top "team experts" on Wagerline for each individual team and take that persons picks and compare it with the opposing team's top "team expert". If they are the same, then that is a play, and you would then begin chasing both teams until both won at the same time or somewhere down the road.

I will start posting the days plays here in this thread, but there will be gaps where I am on vacation (much of next week) so if someone could go through Wagerline and at least post what the top "Team Expert" of each prospective team has as their pick that would be great. If no one does that, then I will just post the days plays on days when I am around.

I will post remaining plays for today in a bit.
 

Member
Joined
Nov 20, 2004
Messages
3,934
Tokens
I have been pondering this idea for quite some time, and I am going to give it a test run from here on out, hopefully until the end of baseball season. The objective of this system is to look at the top "team experts" on Wagerline for each individual team and take that persons picks and compare it with the opposing team's top "team expert". If they are the same, then that is a play, and you would then begin chasing both teams until both won at the same time or somewhere down the road.

I will start posting the days plays here in this thread, but there will be gaps where I am on vacation (much of next week) so if someone could go through Wagerline and at least post what the top "Team Expert" of each prospective team has as their pick that would be great. If no one does that, then I will just post the days plays on days when I am around.

I will post remaining plays for today in a bit.

good luck with that. I hope you find something that works because i have tried to do it many times and could never find anything that worked.
Your always gonna have some team experts on the opposite side.
I also tried fading the worst cappers on that site and that doesnt show any profit either.
good luck thou
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Messages
12,469
Tokens
Intrinzik........
I did this last year in the WNBA to great success ....
You might find ( as i did ) with MLB tons of chalk being layed .....
bol tonight in all your picks
 
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Messages
3,418
Tokens
06/30/07

Oakland Athletics Team Expert: 1* Yankees -158
New York Yankees Team Expert: 1* Yankees -158
Milwaukee Brewers Team Expert: 1* Milwaukee -113
Chicago Cubs Team Expert: 1* Milwaukee -113
New York Mets Team Expert: 1* Phillies +112
Philidelphia Phillies Team Expert: 1* Mets -122
Minnesota Twins Team Expert: 1* Tigers -152
Detroit Tigers Team Expert: 1* Tigers -152
LAA Angels Team Expert: 1* Angels -129
Baltimore Orioles Team Expert: 1* Angels -129
Atlanta Braves Team Expert: 1* Marlins +144
Florida Marlins Team Expert: 1* Braves -154
Colorado Rockies Team Expert: 1* Astros -105
Houston Astros Team Expert: 1* Rockies -105
Washington Nationals Team Expert: 1* Nationals +133
Pittsburgh Pirates team Expert: 1* Nationals +133
Tampa Bay Devil Rays Team Expert: 1* Devil Rays +235
Cleveland Indians Team Expert: 1* Indians -265
Texas Rangers Team Expert: 1* Red Sox -265
Boston Red Sox team Expert: 1* Red Sox -265
Chicago White Sox Team Expert: White Sox +109
Kansas City Royals team Expert: White Sox +109

I will give time for the other "team Experts" to post their plays on the night games.

I am using the closing lines at BetJam as listed on TheRX Live Lines page. In the event that a specific "Team Expert" has no listed plays, I go to the second best "Team expert" for that specific team that has a play for that specific team posted.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2006
Messages
7,659
Tokens
Interesting idea Intrinzik. I will be curious to see how it goes. The Yanks and Tigers would have been afternoon losers today, but of course something like this can hardly be judged on a few plays, let alone a few days. Give it a decent chance to show what it can do with a lengthy track record.
 

Retired; APRIL 2014 Thank You Gambling
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
12,632
Tokens
this is going to be a good thread,,, I am curious to see where it goes from here,,,,

tater
 
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Messages
3,418
Tokens
Interesting idea Intrinzik. I will be curious to see how it goes. The Yanks and Tigers would have been afternoon losers today, but of course something like this can hardly be judged on a few plays, let alone a few days. Give it a decent chance to show what it can do with a lengthy track record.

Yeah, I am planning on running it for the rest of the season. I was thinking about tracking it two ways, the first chasing every capper, no matter who they have and the second chasing the teams that have both "Team Experts" on them, and we'll see which system does the best.
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Jul 8, 2006
Messages
423
Tokens
Intrinzik - been using the best mlb capper and the weekly best capper with the survivor leader and allstar. when all 4 line up on a play. Has shown to be profitable. You maybe on to a Winning system? Interesting keep posting.
 
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Messages
3,418
Tokens
good luck with that. I hope you find something that works because i have tried to do it many times and could never find anything that worked.
Your always gonna have some team experts on the opposite side.
I also tried fading the worst cappers on that site and that doesnt show any profit either.
good luck thou

I'm not sure how fading the worst cappers on WL would not bring a profit. This is also something I am looking into and will likely try out sooner or later.

For instance, I am looking at one capper on there that has had no more than 3 straight winning days (and that only happened once, most winning streaks were limited to one day with a two day winning streak thrown in for good measure). The guy who I am looking at right now would have made me so much money this season (if I had faded every single one of his plays), it is unreal. Also, when he goes on any kind of winning streak it is usually followed up by 2-3, often times more, big losing days.

I might start trying another WL system, entitled the WL Fade System. I can see it already...
 

Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2006
Messages
7,659
Tokens
I'm not sure how fading the worst cappers on WL would not bring a profit. This is also something I am looking into and will likely try out sooner or later.

For instance, I am looking at one capper on there that has had no more than 3 straight winning days (and that only happened once, most winning streaks were limited to one day with a two day winning streak thrown in for good measure). The guy who I am looking at right now would have made me so much money this season (if I had faded every single one of his plays), it is unreal. Also, when he goes on any kind of winning streak it is usually followed up by 2-3, often times more, big losing days.

I might start trying another WL system, entitled the WL Fade System. I can see it already...

RE: Fading Cappers

Back when I was doing those "Service Play" and "Service Fade" spreadsheets on a daily basis based on Bookie Buster's service play threads, there were definitely a handful of services that would have made us a fortune if we were to have faded them day in and day out (MTI, Hondo, Totals 4 U and the Larry Ness "Bonus Plays" to name a few).

I know you are considering doing this with wagerline cappers (not services), but keep in mind that if you decide to fade someone, you have to make sure your fortitude is strong enough to actually go through with it.....becuase believe me, your brain will try to talk you out of it, thinking "what if this guy gets hot?" or "what if this guy turns it around?"

No matter how bad this person is doing, supposedly their goal is to actually produce a few winners and it's amazing how tough it is to follow through fading their every move. You'll also catch yourself scrutinizing their every play (trying to weed out the "winners") and will then find yourself amazed when those same "winners" lose and the other plays win.

Long story short....if you decide to do it, you have to do it blindly and do it 100% of the time.
 
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Messages
3,418
Tokens
RE: Fading Cappers

Back when I was doing those "Service Play" and "Service Fade" spreadsheets on a daily basis based on Bookie Buster's service play threads, there were definitely a handful of services that would have made us a fortune if we were to have faded them day in and day out (MTI, Hondo, Totals 4 U and the Larry Ness "Bonus Plays" to name a few).

I know you are considering doing this with wagerline cappers (not services), but keep in mind that if you decide to fade someone, you have to make sure your fortitude is strong enough to actually go through with it.....becuase believe me, your brain will try to talk you out of it, thinking "what if this guy gets hot?" or "what if this guy turns it around?"

No matter how bad this person is doing, supposedly their goal is to actually produce a few winners and it's amazing how tough it is to follow through fading their every move. You'll also catch yourself scrutinizing their every play (trying to weed out the "winners") and will then find yourself amazed when those same "winners" lose and the other plays win.

Long story short....if you decide to do it, you have to do it blindly and do it 100% of the time.

You are absolutely correct. I was thinking of setting some parameters for fading a capper, such as if they go more than 58% or so over the course of a week, stop fading them. But then again, it would probably be wise to just fade them and not try to make things complicated than they should be.
 

Homie Don't Play That
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
1,840
Tokens
"The objective of this system is to look at the top "team experts" on Wagerline for each individual team and take that persons picks and compare it with the opposing team's top "team expert". If they are the same, then that is a play, and you would then begin chasing both teams until both won at the same time or somewhere down the road".

You have set up a system that will hit 50%. Tweek it to play Dogs only and you might have something. GL
 

Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2006
Messages
7,659
Tokens
You are absolutely correct. I was thinking of setting some parameters for fading a capper, such as if they go more than 58% or so over the course of a week, stop fading them. But then again, it would probably be wise to just fade them and not try to make things complicated than they should be.

I can see value in doing it both ways. But I think it either needs to be one or the other.

Option "A" is to use parameters, which will identify temporary hot streaks and limit your exposure to such streaks...but could also cost the opportunity of missing the first night that the train goes back off of the tracks when the streak is over.

Option "B" is to blindly fade 100% of the time (no questions asked), which could expose you to some hot streaks....but will take full advantage of this person's true pathetic season winning percentage, which is what you are after anyway.

Who knows, perhaps Option "A" and Option "B" would produce similar results over the long haul. But the key would be sticking to whatever tactic you pursue and not allow anything to deviate you from your goal.
 
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Messages
3,418
Tokens
I can see value in doing it both ways. But I think it either needs to be one or the other.

Option "A" is to use parameters, which will identify temporary hot streaks and limit your exposure to such streaks...but could also cost the opportunity of missing the first night that the train goes back off of the tracks when the streak is over.

Option "B" is to blindly fade 100% of the time (no questions asked), which could expose you to some hot streaks....but will take full advantage of this person's true pathetic season winning percentage, which is what you are after anyway.

Who knows, perhaps Option "A" and Option "B" would produce similar results over the long haul. But the key would be sticking to whatever tactic you pursue and not allow anything to deviate you from your goal.

Again, you are correct. It probably would not be wise to flip flop from both ends of the spectrum in this case, so it would have to be one or the other. I would probably choose Option "B", as that makes the results you get more complete and you wouldn't miss out on any cold streaks that a capper would go on after a good hot streak.

Another concept I was tossing around was , if a capper I was fading had a winning day, say over X amount of units, then I would double up my units the following days. I have spent the past while looking over some long-term results of WL cappers and very few of the one's that I would potentially fade have more than a couple of winning days in a row, most just had a day or two of straight winning, and that includes days where they barely profited from their plays. This would make up for the winning day they had and then some, and once you were to increase the size of how much each play is worth, then it would be more likely to hit sooner rather than later because that particular capper has already experienced a winning day(s), and is more prone to a losing day.

I'd like to get your input in this idea that I have, as I think it has some potential (and of course some kinks to work out in the process).
 
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Messages
3,418
Tokens
The rest of today's plays (06/30/07):

St Louis Cardinals Team Expert: 1* Reds +101
Cincinnati Reds Team Expert: 1* Cardinals -111
Arizona Diamondbacks Team Expert: 1* Giants -128
San Francisco Giants Team Expert: 1* Diamondbacks +118
Toronto Blue Jays Team Expert: 1* Mariners +131
Seattle Mariners Team Expert: 1* Mariners +131
San Diego Padres Team Expert: 1* Dodgers -102
LA Dodgers Team Expert: 1* Dodgers -102
 

MIZZOU
Joined
Jun 12, 2007
Messages
1,781
Tokens
So According To Your System, It Would Be 2-6 Today
Yanks Lost
Milw Won
Det Lost
Laa Lost
Wash Lost
Bost Lost
Wsox Won
Seattle Pending
Dodgers Pending
Is This Right?? I'm Curious If I'm Following You!!!!thanks
 

Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2006
Messages
7,659
Tokens
.....another concept I was tossing around was , if a capper I was fading had a winning day, say over X amount of units, then I would double up my units the following days. I have spent the past while looking over some long-term results of WL cappers and very few of the one's that I would potentially fade have more than a couple of winning days in a row, most just had a day or two of straight winning, and that includes days where they barely profited from their plays. This would make up for the winning day they had and then some, and once you were to increase the size of how much each play is worth, then it would be more likely to hit sooner rather than later because that particular capper has already experienced a winning day(s), and is more prone to a losing day.....

I think that is a great idea. Similar to a chase system but in reverse, or in this case, chasing a loser.

Here's the tough part....knowing when (at which point in the season) you have firmly identified a person, a capper, a service worthy of being labeled "the one". Can you identify this person early in the season? Or does it take months to find this person and be confident that they continue to lose?

I have attached an old copy of a "Service Fade" spreadsheet that I created and used to update for the viewers of Bookie Buster's service play threads. It will allow you to see some trends of services that were worthy of fading at certain times.

Perhaps you are familiar with my spreadsheets. If not, here's what you need to know:

Each day is color coded to easily identify a winning day (yellow), a losing day (gray) or a break-even day (no color) and also makes it easy to see streaks over periods of time.

Each service was ranked by winning percentage (in reverse since this was a "fade" sheet and not one of my "play" sheets).

The sheet was broken into separate groups, based on the total number of plays. And each separate group was then ranked by winning percentage within each group (I felt the total number of tracked plays was meaningful in regard to percentage...since a 1-win & 4-loss capper goes from 25% to 50% with a single win....whereas a 10-win & 40-loss capper doesn't change with an extra win).

The spread sheet has multiple sheets labeled "Sheet 1", "Sheet 2" and "Sheet 3" in chronological order. Click on these "sheet" tabs located at the bottom to flip through the all the dates shown on the spreadsheet. You will notice that some cappers appear and disappear from the sheets as they get better or worse.

Despite their overall season winning percentages, some services were only great fades during certain periods of time (see Gator Report and Colemen 4* on Sheet #1 but notice how they turn it around on Sheets #2 and #3....then see Hondo and Jordan 100~300* on Sheet #2 but notice how they turned it around on Sheet #3).

This may or may not help, but is a great illustration for the purposes of this discussion.
 

Attachments

  • Old Service Fade Sheet.xls
    55.5 KB · Views: 51

Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2006
Messages
7,659
Tokens
.....Here's the tough part....knowing when (at which point in the season) you have firmly identified a person, a capper, a service worthy of being labeled "the one". Can you identify this person early in the season? Or does it take months to find this person and be confident that they continue to lose?....

But obviously "everyday cappers" will have much more extended losing streaks, or even enitre losing seasons (of epic proportions) when compared to the "paid services" featured on the spreasheet. And obviously you have already identified a few.....so yes, I definitely think that you are onto something here.
 
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Messages
3,418
Tokens
That is a great example, SDS. I may invest the time and effort into trying to make one of those type spreadsheets for use with the different WL concepts that I have.

As for identifying who the fade, I have been looking at several different aspects. First, I go through the list of biggest losers in terms of "units" for last season. Then I go and see how long they have been tracked and if they have had a winning season since they have been posting their plays on WL. I have already found a few that have been on WL for 4-5+ years and have had losing seasons all of those years, and not just small losing seasons each year, pretty healthy losing seasons (to the tune of 40+ units lost per season, sometimes more). I am going to try to compile a large group of these potential cappers to fade and take a look at their weekly (for NFL) and monthly (for other sports) records and net units lost/won during that time span. I will then go through the other seasons and do the same or similar process. This entire process will be repeated for each potential capper to fade, of which I hope to have all laid out on a spreadsheet so that people may use it in the future. I hope to include the capper's percentage of wins for each tracked season at WL, how many units they lost. I am also going to implement a filter, dependent on the sport, of how many games they must have picked a side on.

I may start one for MLB season, at least to help us out for the rest of this season. I will let everyone know within the next few days (hope to have one done within the next few days because I will be on vacation and away from a computer for 5-7 days).
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,767
Messages
13,438,805
Members
99,337
Latest member
hbs_solutions
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com