An Undervalued Road Favorite
White Sox
Comment:
It appears that Thomson’s win last week as one of the biggest underdogs in the season has caught public attention and created value on the other side. Let’s not put too much stock into his first start where he caught the Angels just at the right time. This is still an injured riddled pitcher well past his prime, and was unable to get called up from Syracuse to fill in for an injured Blue Jays rotation prior to his release. He is still hampered by some nagging injuries, and is the same pitcher that allowed 40 runs in his last 50 innings of work for the Braves last season. In past years, Thomson had been able to put forth solid seasons with his ability to pitch effectively to left handed bats and overcome his deficiencies against the right handed hitters he faced. He did this with his challenge fastball, a pitcher that is no longer as effective with the decrease in his velocity. His struggles against right handers predominantly come from the spray hitters he faces, which should become a fundamental mismatch against this White Sox lineup. Thomson is also one of those rare veteran pitchers that has never pitched as effectively at home. In the past it was explained by the hitter’s parks of his home teams, something that could not be an excuse for his five plus home ERA last year, which is right around his career average. Thomson’s decreased inability to hold runners on should also prove detrimental against an aggressive White Sox team on the base paths. Simply put, don’t put too much stock in his first outing, and PECOTA is further evidence that he is a liability on the mound. Although he is backed by an underrated bullpen, it is a bullpen with pitchers who have struggled against the White Sox in the past. The White Sox slow start has been more of a cause of intangibles (underachieving, lack of confidence and momentum) than most teams that starts off slow (although a lot can be explained due to injury and lack of fundamentals). Winning four of their last five road games has built up some confidence in this team and it is starting to show on the field.
Although Garland is pitching a bit over his head once against this season, he is a pitcher that has been known to overachieve for long periods of time. He appears to be on an upward trend all season without showing any signs of regression. He has shown excellent command, has done a great job keeping the ball in the park, and has overpowered left handed hitters this season- all assets that should be magnified in this game. His command should be magnified due to working with one of the most generous strike zones in the league in today’s game. His ability to dominate left handed bats should be magnified by facing four left handed hitters thanks to the injuries (that have been flying under the radar) of veteran right handers in Sanders, Sweeney and Grudzilanek. Lastly, his ability to keep the ball in the park should be magnified by having to face a lineup that can struggle manufacturing runs, especially at home. Garlands ability to eat up innings should also pay big dividends, as the bullpen that will be backing him has been underachieving all season.
White Sox
Comment:
It appears that Thomson’s win last week as one of the biggest underdogs in the season has caught public attention and created value on the other side. Let’s not put too much stock into his first start where he caught the Angels just at the right time. This is still an injured riddled pitcher well past his prime, and was unable to get called up from Syracuse to fill in for an injured Blue Jays rotation prior to his release. He is still hampered by some nagging injuries, and is the same pitcher that allowed 40 runs in his last 50 innings of work for the Braves last season. In past years, Thomson had been able to put forth solid seasons with his ability to pitch effectively to left handed bats and overcome his deficiencies against the right handed hitters he faced. He did this with his challenge fastball, a pitcher that is no longer as effective with the decrease in his velocity. His struggles against right handers predominantly come from the spray hitters he faces, which should become a fundamental mismatch against this White Sox lineup. Thomson is also one of those rare veteran pitchers that has never pitched as effectively at home. In the past it was explained by the hitter’s parks of his home teams, something that could not be an excuse for his five plus home ERA last year, which is right around his career average. Thomson’s decreased inability to hold runners on should also prove detrimental against an aggressive White Sox team on the base paths. Simply put, don’t put too much stock in his first outing, and PECOTA is further evidence that he is a liability on the mound. Although he is backed by an underrated bullpen, it is a bullpen with pitchers who have struggled against the White Sox in the past. The White Sox slow start has been more of a cause of intangibles (underachieving, lack of confidence and momentum) than most teams that starts off slow (although a lot can be explained due to injury and lack of fundamentals). Winning four of their last five road games has built up some confidence in this team and it is starting to show on the field.
Although Garland is pitching a bit over his head once against this season, he is a pitcher that has been known to overachieve for long periods of time. He appears to be on an upward trend all season without showing any signs of regression. He has shown excellent command, has done a great job keeping the ball in the park, and has overpowered left handed hitters this season- all assets that should be magnified in this game. His command should be magnified due to working with one of the most generous strike zones in the league in today’s game. His ability to dominate left handed bats should be magnified by facing four left handed hitters thanks to the injuries (that have been flying under the radar) of veteran right handers in Sanders, Sweeney and Grudzilanek. Lastly, his ability to keep the ball in the park should be magnified by having to face a lineup that can struggle manufacturing runs, especially at home. Garlands ability to eat up innings should also pay big dividends, as the bullpen that will be backing him has been underachieving all season.
