KISS Baseball System (Keep it Simple Stoooooopid) :thumbsup:
This is a thread to experiment with a simple baseball system. All plays will be posted to this thread.
My thoughts on wagering are simple.
Keep it simple, keep it fun, if you can figure out a way to do that and still beat the book ...great.
I love systems, thats how I wager.
You can pick up any newspaper with a sports section and play this system.
Here is how it works...baseball is a game of streaks. How can we best try to capitalize on that? Ride the streaks...sounds simple but I have seen this system pile up over 25 units in the 2005 season. At worst I don't think we will get killed , and its an easy and fun way to stay involved in baseball all year. At worst...if we lose a little its good entertainment value and we can make some changes next year. If it really bombs badly...we'll shut it down and say we tried.
The Rules
1. Wager on any team on after it has at least a 3 game winning streak. Teams must have at least a 3 win streak to qualify. You then wager on each game for that team until the winning streak ends.
2. Wager against any team after it has at least a 3 game losing streak.Teams must have at least a 3 game losing streak to qualify. You then wager against that team for each game until that losing streak ends.
3. If a qualified winning streak team is playing a qualified losing streak team , it is a "NO PLAY". (Based on the 2005 season...this is the way to do it).
4.No handicapping allowed. I don't care if the the matchup appears to favor the other team...we are going with the "magic of emotion" that carries teams on streaks.
This is not a handicapping system. You have to trust the premise that streaks will provide you with upset opportunities, and ride them out. We want the large home dogs that are on a winning streak...something else is going on with that team right now...ride it out until it stops.
Same goes for losing streaks...bet against them until they climb out of the hole by winning...sometimes even great teams go into strange funks...you can ride out some great dog picks when that happens as well. (In theory anyway).
5. Lastly...and maybe most important. Be smart how you wager.
Use smart money management.
This system has strict rules for wagering. All wagers are on a sliding scale to reduce risk. This is very important.
It might seem complicated but it is very simple.
Maximum wager with this sysem will be $500. Why $500? Because I will use Wagerline for my odds and to track my picks. Wagerline uses $500 as a maximum wager.
Let me explain how this works....
1. A full wager...or maximum bet is $500. We will only use maximum bets on wagers +120 to -120. The most we can let ourselves lose on any wager is $600. That is the maximum rule.
2. All other lines will be on a sliding scale so that the most we can win or lose is $600...because that is where we draw the line with a maximum wager. We can not expose ourselves to anything more than a $600 loss with a $500 max wager system. For example....a -150 wager could only be for $400 in this system...because $400 X -150 = $600. That is our maximum exposure allowed for a win or a loss.
It might seem a little confusing but after you see it implemented it makes sense.
In a nutshell....we wager the most on the small faves and dogs....and less on large faves and dogs so that our exposure to any one wager is about equal. (Again maximum exposure is -$600 for a loss with a $500 max bet).
Don't let the $500 maximum wager scare you. Drop off the zeros and you can employ this system with $5 wagers or $50 wagers.
Its all relative....it works out the same regardless whether you play it with $5 max or $50 max bets.
Thats about it...lets have some fun with it. If it works...great. If not...oh well...we tried and had some fun.
I will 'TRY" to post every day...but will probably miss a day here and there. Wagerline will track the system for me...and their lines are fairly good lines. Good enough anyway.
Good luck!
MJ
This is a thread to experiment with a simple baseball system. All plays will be posted to this thread.
My thoughts on wagering are simple.
Keep it simple, keep it fun, if you can figure out a way to do that and still beat the book ...great.
I love systems, thats how I wager.
You can pick up any newspaper with a sports section and play this system.
Here is how it works...baseball is a game of streaks. How can we best try to capitalize on that? Ride the streaks...sounds simple but I have seen this system pile up over 25 units in the 2005 season. At worst I don't think we will get killed , and its an easy and fun way to stay involved in baseball all year. At worst...if we lose a little its good entertainment value and we can make some changes next year. If it really bombs badly...we'll shut it down and say we tried.
The Rules
1. Wager on any team on after it has at least a 3 game winning streak. Teams must have at least a 3 win streak to qualify. You then wager on each game for that team until the winning streak ends.
2. Wager against any team after it has at least a 3 game losing streak.Teams must have at least a 3 game losing streak to qualify. You then wager against that team for each game until that losing streak ends.
3. If a qualified winning streak team is playing a qualified losing streak team , it is a "NO PLAY". (Based on the 2005 season...this is the way to do it).
4.No handicapping allowed. I don't care if the the matchup appears to favor the other team...we are going with the "magic of emotion" that carries teams on streaks.
This is not a handicapping system. You have to trust the premise that streaks will provide you with upset opportunities, and ride them out. We want the large home dogs that are on a winning streak...something else is going on with that team right now...ride it out until it stops.
Same goes for losing streaks...bet against them until they climb out of the hole by winning...sometimes even great teams go into strange funks...you can ride out some great dog picks when that happens as well. (In theory anyway).
5. Lastly...and maybe most important. Be smart how you wager.
Use smart money management.
This system has strict rules for wagering. All wagers are on a sliding scale to reduce risk. This is very important.
It might seem complicated but it is very simple.
Maximum wager with this sysem will be $500. Why $500? Because I will use Wagerline for my odds and to track my picks. Wagerline uses $500 as a maximum wager.
Let me explain how this works....
1. A full wager...or maximum bet is $500. We will only use maximum bets on wagers +120 to -120. The most we can let ourselves lose on any wager is $600. That is the maximum rule.
2. All other lines will be on a sliding scale so that the most we can win or lose is $600...because that is where we draw the line with a maximum wager. We can not expose ourselves to anything more than a $600 loss with a $500 max wager system. For example....a -150 wager could only be for $400 in this system...because $400 X -150 = $600. That is our maximum exposure allowed for a win or a loss.
It might seem a little confusing but after you see it implemented it makes sense.
In a nutshell....we wager the most on the small faves and dogs....and less on large faves and dogs so that our exposure to any one wager is about equal. (Again maximum exposure is -$600 for a loss with a $500 max bet).
Don't let the $500 maximum wager scare you. Drop off the zeros and you can employ this system with $5 wagers or $50 wagers.
Its all relative....it works out the same regardless whether you play it with $5 max or $50 max bets.
Thats about it...lets have some fun with it. If it works...great. If not...oh well...we tried and had some fun.
I will 'TRY" to post every day...but will probably miss a day here and there. Wagerline will track the system for me...and their lines are fairly good lines. Good enough anyway.
Good luck!
MJ
