Jibba's Monday MLB

Jibba · Jul 2, 2007

Post 6/27/07 record:

Favorites: 5-1 for +3.95 units.
Underdogs: 7-5 for +3.73 units.
ML Total: 12-6 for +7.68 units.

Totals: 1-0 for +0.54 units.

Run lines: 0-1 for -0.5 units.

Pre 6/27/07 record:

Favorites: 156-106 for +5.61 units.
Underdogs: 63-71 for +11.82 units.
Total: 219-177 for +17.43.

Totals: 5-2 for +3.33 units.
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I don't have a lot of time today unfortunately. Have a few dogs and another small favorite that I'm looking at adding if the price moves in my favor.

Orioles +103: Bedard is cruising along and shouldn't have trouble with Chicago's offense. He's now racked up 11 straight starts without allowing more than 3 runs or 9 hits in a game. And in that span he's pitched 74 innings while allowing only 55 hits and 17 runs while striking out 87 and walking only 19. He's put up fairly decent numbers in the past against the White Sox, and although a couple players on the Sox have hit him in the past, they may be surprised at how much better his stuff is this year over previous years. I don't particularly like backing the O's on the road, but this is one of the best spots for it IMO. Chicago has not played well at home this year and have lost 5 straight in Chicago. Meche may or may not be distracted by contract talks, but he'll certainly have a tougher offense to face than Bedard will. 1 unit to win 1.03.

Athletics -129: 1.29 units to win 1.
Mets -117: 1.17 units to win 1.
Padres -129: 1.29 units to win 1.

everythingthatsgreen · Jul 2, 2007

Whatsup Jibba. I am trying to decide between the Orioles or the Under although I would like to get the number at 8. I do like the Mets pick but I am not sold on Dinardo by any means here. Think Wells at home should be enough to get the job done for the Padres. Any thoughts on the Phillies?

Jibba · Jul 2, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Whatsup Jibba. I am trying to decide between the Orioles or the Under although I would like to get the number at 8. I do like the Mets pick but I am not sold on Dinardo by any means here. Think Wells at home should be enough to get the job done for the Padres. Any thoughts on the Phillies?

I think the O's under looks very solid. MB currently has it at under 8, -114. I may look a little harder at that one later in the morning. I've been focusing pretty hard lately on dogs, but I really like the Mets, A's and Pads as favs today. As for the A's, I'm not particularly sold on DiNardo, but I'm absolutely sold on the system in Oakland. No matter who they throw out there, they come through with quality start after quality start. I like the Phillies a lot today, but am a bit confused by the line. Something just smells fishy and it's dropped a bit even this morning. Moyer has been solid and Williams is a fade at home or on the road. So that's one of the games I'm still looking at, along with the Dodgers as my other potential small fav (I know everyone and their mother at the Rx is on the Braves). The dogs I'm still looking at are the Twins (line will probably hit +200 at this point), Royals, and Cardinals.

everythingthatsgreen · Jul 2, 2007

I like the Dodgers very much as well...I am having a hard time narrowing down my games...got the following as my leans

Cubs Over 8.5 -115: I don't like the Nationals offense without Guzman but at the same time I don't see Lilly throwing a shutout or Simontachhi not getting hit.

Brewers Over 9.5 +100: Little unsure here but think the Pirates can hit Suppan for 3-4 runs and the same with the Brewers.

Phillies -113: Moyer didn't look good for a period of time this season but is 2-0 since then and Woody doesn't have much success vs. Phillies.

Mets -120: Not much else to say here. Rockies 7-14 vs. LHP this yr and 3-5 when Hirsh throws at home.

Dodgers -119: Don't like the Braves much as a team, think they are a tough team to read now they have to travel cross country and face a guy in D. Lowe who is stout. Dodger bullpen after the 6th with a lead is pretty much a done deal.

Orioles Under 8-120: Like this number here. Think this is a 3-2 game either way in the 8th

everythingthatsgreen · Jul 2, 2007

Mets line just got pounded in the last 2minutes... from -120 to -113... I am goin to let it keep sliding

thecakeoff · Jul 2, 2007

I took the Mets +340 to win the NL Pennant at MB =O)

Jibba · Jul 2, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
I like the Dodgers very much as well...I am having a hard time narrowing down my games...got the following as my leans

Cubs Over 8.5 -115: I don't like the Nationals offense without Guzman but at the same time I don't see Lilly throwing a shutout or Simontachhi not getting hit.

Brewers Over 9.5 +100: Little unsure here but think the Pirates can hit Suppan for 3-4 runs and the same with the Brewers.

Phillies -113: Moyer didn't look good for a period of time this season but is 2-0 since then and Woody doesn't have much success vs. Phillies.

Mets -120: Not much else to say here. Rockies 7-14 vs. LHP this yr and 3-5 when Hirsh throws at home.

Dodgers -119: Don't like the Braves much as a team, think they are a tough team to read now they have to travel cross country and face a guy in D. Lowe who is stout. Dodger bullpen after the 6th with a lead is pretty much a done deal.

Orioles Under 8-120: Like this number here. Think this is a 3-2 game either way in the 8th

I like the Cubs over for the same reasons you mentioned. And it's still at over 8, -116 at MB. Lilly is definitely not as solid on the road, and Simontacchi has an ERA over 7 at home. I think I may even add that for a half unit. Don't like the Brewers over nearly as much. Just too many variables in that one. Still like the Phillies, but still scratching my head wondering who's pounding Woody Williams down to -105 on MB. I'm already on the Mets, but I'm still wondering what the deal is with the line movement in that one. And agree on the last two. BOL on all of them.

VenomousSanction · Jul 2, 2007

Good Luck Jibby

Jibba · Jul 2, 2007

Thanks Venom. Good luck to you too.

Official Plays:

Orioles: 1 unit to win 1.03.
Athletics: 1.29 units to win 1.
Mets: 1.17 units to win 1.
Padres: 1.29 units to win 1.
Royals: 1 unit to win 1.05.
Cardinals: 1 unit to win 1.24.
Cubs/Nationals over 8: 0.6 units to win 0.5.

Still have a few possible plays, but this may end up being my final card. BOL to everyone tonight.

silver7 · Jul 2, 2007

Jib

You`re talking about O`s vs WSx, and then mention Meche?

everythingthatsgreen · Jul 2, 2007

Its a nice card Jibba. Little interested in your Cardinal pick.. Webb has been hot and Looper coming off the DL for shoulder soreness is a concern. Do agree with the Royals as well.

Jibba · Jul 2, 2007

silver7 said:
You`re talking about O`s vs WSx, and then mention Meche?

:missingte Thanks for picking up on that. Had the KC play in the back of my head all day until just a few minutes ago when I posted it. Was rushing that writeup because I had a lack of time. Meant to say Buehrle.

Jibba · Jul 2, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Its a nice card Jibba. Little interested in your Cardinal pick.. Webb has been hot and Looper coming off the DL for shoulder soreness is a concern. Do agree with the Royals as well.

Arizona isn't playing all that well lately and actually lost 2 out of 3 to the lowly Giants. They've lost 5 of their last 8 overall and walk into a stadium that has not been kind to them lately. The D-Backs haven't won a series in St. Louis since 2003 and Webb has not pitched well there. In his 2 career starts in Busch Stadium, Webb is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA, a 1.85 WHIP, and a .375 BAA. So I do see the Cards getting to Arizona tonight to an extent.

Looper is coming off an injury, but I still expect him to put up a solid performance tonight against an Arizona offense that is far less productive on the road (.243 BA on road (29th in MLB), .310 OBP on road (29th in MLB), .375 SLG (27th in MLB), and .685 OPS (27th in MLB)). This offense is also batting a meager .220 over the past 7 days with an SLG of only .339. Plus, although Looper has never started against the D-Backs, he's been very solid against them in 26 relief appearances (2.42 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and .250 BAA). He's also been very solid at home this year, sporting a 3.41 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .257 BAA at home even after a routing at the hands of the LA Angels two starts back. Basically it comes down to the fact that Webb hasn't been consistent this year and I think this is a great spot for him to have a letdown start, in a city he's never pitched well in and with the All-Star voters' eyes on him.

thecakeoff · Jul 2, 2007

No thoughts on my future bet Jibba?

Jibba · Jul 2, 2007

thecakeoff said:
No thoughts on my future bet Jibba?

I think it's decent value, as you seem to have gotten a good price. It's just very tough for me to pick one team in that league to step up above the rest. Mets are as good a team as any though.

gabbana · Jul 2, 2007

nice to see ya back in the buissnes gl tonight bro

finman13 · Jul 2, 2007

any thoughts on the redsox?

silver7 · Jul 2, 2007

Should Have Mentioned

I miss your analysis when you`re not here. Whether I agree w/the picks or not the info you provide to me is worth a lot. A martooni if we ever meet. BOL my friend, so far only on Cubs & O, & Phil. big time (for me). BJ has the total on WSx @ 7- now, no play @ that #. For a large pup, my Twins tempt me. They`re really hitting well, except for yesterday. See ya! Oh BTW do you play CFB? (NCAA)

Jibba · Jul 2, 2007

finman13 said:
any thoughts on the redsox?

They're just too tough to predict the way they're playing right now unfortunately. They keep getting guys on base and just can't seem to finish teams off. The games the last two days have been ugly. Saturday started off like a Sox blowout with Beckett on the mound, only to watch them shut it down and lose 5-4. Yesterday was just crazy, as it seemed they left guys on base in about every inning. If I had to say, I'd probably lean toward Texas based purely on value, but not by much.

Jibba · Jul 2, 2007

silver7 said:
I miss your analysis when you`re not here. Whether I agree w/the picks or not the info you provide to me is worth a lot. A martooni if we ever meet. BOL my friend, so far only on Cubs & O, & Phil. big time (for me). BJ has the total on WSx @ 7- now, no play @ that #. For a large pup, my Twins tempt me. They`re really hitting well, except for yesterday. See ya! Oh BTW do you play CFB? (NCAA)

Thanks man. I really appreciate it. The Twins are extremely tempting, and I may end up on them when all is said and done, but am going to see what the line looks like when I get home.

Don't particularly do CFB, but dabble a little bit. Last season I just followed a couple of the regular in that forum rather than trying to do it myself. Will probably stick to MLB and NFL for the time being.