An Undervalued Road Favorite
New York Mets
Comment:
The Rockies are a young team that thrives off of momentum more than most teams. When things are going well, they go really well. In June, they showed that they can group their young talent together and become a real force, as they went on a 13-3 run which included impressive series against the Red Sox and Yankees. However, with the good comes the bad, as the Rockies have recently shown that when things go bad, they become really bad, and manage to find ways to lose games that simply should not have been lost. Yesterday, this downward momentum really showed, as they simply did not show up to play that game, making it their 9th loss in their last ten games. Coming back home to play a team like the Mets might be the thing the Rockies need to get jump started again, however, until they are able to show they could put a halt to this pendulum quickly swinging the other way, I have no problem going against them.
The Mets once again might be the best road team in the National League, as they showed that to be the case in a hard fought weekend series against the Phillies. They have a good chance to carry that momentum forward, as they get to face a “raw talent” pitcher that has recently lost his command and confidence on the mound. In the beginning of the season, Hirsh showed what his big frame and live arm can do to hitters. However, some point along the way, he reverted back to the struggling pitcher of last year, as his strikeout rate took a sudden fall, while his walk rate has hit a dangerous level. During the last two months, he has walked a batter nearly every two innings, which is not a deficiency you want when you are unable to hold runners on and are up against a team as aggressive and fast on the base paths as the Mets are. Walks have not been Hirsh’s only problem of late, as his flyball tendencies have been magnified in recent starts due to his lack of command. This is not something you want when pitching in this park, and allowing seven home runs in the last 14 innings of work is enough evidence to assume something is simply not right with him. Being backed by an overworked and not terribly effective bullpen should allow the Mets to face hittable pitchers throughout this game and give Glavine some adequate run support.
Although Glavine’s numbers are a bit off from the last few years, they are a bit misleading, as they are skewed by two successive bad starts against veteran lineups that he did not match up well against. Those two starts aside, he is having yet again another solid season. He also seems to be pitching with a chip on his shoulder since his Yankees debacle, as he has allowed just one run in his last two outings combined. Although the Rockies have a talented lineup, it is a lineup that Glavine matches up well against, as he could take advantage of their youth and aggressive tendencies at the plate. They haven’t seen his stuff in nearly two years, and some of the integral parts of the lineup have struggled against him in the past, as Atkins (their hottest hitter), Holliday (their best hitter), and Taveras (their biggest catalyst), come into today’s game a combined 3 for 24 against him. Glavine is backed by the better bullpen, which should put pressure on the Rockies to take the lead when both starters are on the mound, or else their chances of winning this game diminishes significantly.
What to Make of the Yankees and their Line Movement
One of the biggest struggles some gamblers have is trying to decipher between price and value. Some make the mistake of automatically assuming that a high price (like the Yankees -190 today) has no value, while a big underdog always has value. That is not the case. With the way the Yankees have been playing of late, coupled with Clemens still not reaching form just yet, I could see someone make the case of that today. However, if this game were played three weeks ago, one would see at least 50 more cents added to the Yankees, and would surely be overvalued as usual. Has this drop off in price actually created value on the worst ROI team in baseball? Early money would say no, as the line quickly dropped from the open until returning back to their opening price. However, I say yes, as they get a tailor made match up for them to get a surprisingly hard to come by win. The Yankees get to face a struggling pitcher that they fundamentally match up well against (much better than the hottest pitcher in baseball that they got to in yesterday’s game). Bonser seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place, as earlier in the season he was constantly going for the strike out. Although he averaged over a strike out an inning during both the first two months of the season, his walk rate and pitch count was too much of a detriment, and the Twins felt compelled to switch his style up a bit. In June, he has been pitching for contact more, which has reduced both his strikeout rate and walk rate, but has made him far more hittable than the Twins had imagined. Teams hit well over .300 against Bonser in June, which forced him to put forth a near seven ERA during that month. During his five starts in June, he was unable to put forth one quality start, which is concerning for a young pitcher that has shown he could do such at will, as he ended last season putting forth 8 of his last nine, and went a stretch this season putting forth seven of 8. So what can we expect out of Bonser tonight? Hard to say, but we can conclude that it will be a young struggling pitcher that seems lost on the mound right now.
An Interesting Series
Orioles @ White Sox
Most people are looking at this series as a boring one, as they conclude that it is between to bottom feeder teams. However, it is an interesting one in my eyes, as it involves two teams of similar makeup. Both teams have been underachieving all season and have been plagued by some marquee injuries. Both teams have built the foundation of their lineups around veteran players past their primes and young players that have yet to reach theirs. Both teams have talented but underachieving bullpens, while both lineups have deviated from fundamental consistency and are simply not playing situational baseball. So how do you handle a series like this? Expect the unexpected, but also expect the games to be priced inefficiently as both teams are hard to value right now. Although there exists more value in other games on today’s card, game 1 in my opinion is trading off of it’s fair value, as there is slight value on the White Sox.
New York Mets
Comment:
The Rockies are a young team that thrives off of momentum more than most teams. When things are going well, they go really well. In June, they showed that they can group their young talent together and become a real force, as they went on a 13-3 run which included impressive series against the Red Sox and Yankees. However, with the good comes the bad, as the Rockies have recently shown that when things go bad, they become really bad, and manage to find ways to lose games that simply should not have been lost. Yesterday, this downward momentum really showed, as they simply did not show up to play that game, making it their 9th loss in their last ten games. Coming back home to play a team like the Mets might be the thing the Rockies need to get jump started again, however, until they are able to show they could put a halt to this pendulum quickly swinging the other way, I have no problem going against them.
The Mets once again might be the best road team in the National League, as they showed that to be the case in a hard fought weekend series against the Phillies. They have a good chance to carry that momentum forward, as they get to face a “raw talent” pitcher that has recently lost his command and confidence on the mound. In the beginning of the season, Hirsh showed what his big frame and live arm can do to hitters. However, some point along the way, he reverted back to the struggling pitcher of last year, as his strikeout rate took a sudden fall, while his walk rate has hit a dangerous level. During the last two months, he has walked a batter nearly every two innings, which is not a deficiency you want when you are unable to hold runners on and are up against a team as aggressive and fast on the base paths as the Mets are. Walks have not been Hirsh’s only problem of late, as his flyball tendencies have been magnified in recent starts due to his lack of command. This is not something you want when pitching in this park, and allowing seven home runs in the last 14 innings of work is enough evidence to assume something is simply not right with him. Being backed by an overworked and not terribly effective bullpen should allow the Mets to face hittable pitchers throughout this game and give Glavine some adequate run support.
Although Glavine’s numbers are a bit off from the last few years, they are a bit misleading, as they are skewed by two successive bad starts against veteran lineups that he did not match up well against. Those two starts aside, he is having yet again another solid season. He also seems to be pitching with a chip on his shoulder since his Yankees debacle, as he has allowed just one run in his last two outings combined. Although the Rockies have a talented lineup, it is a lineup that Glavine matches up well against, as he could take advantage of their youth and aggressive tendencies at the plate. They haven’t seen his stuff in nearly two years, and some of the integral parts of the lineup have struggled against him in the past, as Atkins (their hottest hitter), Holliday (their best hitter), and Taveras (their biggest catalyst), come into today’s game a combined 3 for 24 against him. Glavine is backed by the better bullpen, which should put pressure on the Rockies to take the lead when both starters are on the mound, or else their chances of winning this game diminishes significantly.
What to Make of the Yankees and their Line Movement
One of the biggest struggles some gamblers have is trying to decipher between price and value. Some make the mistake of automatically assuming that a high price (like the Yankees -190 today) has no value, while a big underdog always has value. That is not the case. With the way the Yankees have been playing of late, coupled with Clemens still not reaching form just yet, I could see someone make the case of that today. However, if this game were played three weeks ago, one would see at least 50 more cents added to the Yankees, and would surely be overvalued as usual. Has this drop off in price actually created value on the worst ROI team in baseball? Early money would say no, as the line quickly dropped from the open until returning back to their opening price. However, I say yes, as they get a tailor made match up for them to get a surprisingly hard to come by win. The Yankees get to face a struggling pitcher that they fundamentally match up well against (much better than the hottest pitcher in baseball that they got to in yesterday’s game). Bonser seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place, as earlier in the season he was constantly going for the strike out. Although he averaged over a strike out an inning during both the first two months of the season, his walk rate and pitch count was too much of a detriment, and the Twins felt compelled to switch his style up a bit. In June, he has been pitching for contact more, which has reduced both his strikeout rate and walk rate, but has made him far more hittable than the Twins had imagined. Teams hit well over .300 against Bonser in June, which forced him to put forth a near seven ERA during that month. During his five starts in June, he was unable to put forth one quality start, which is concerning for a young pitcher that has shown he could do such at will, as he ended last season putting forth 8 of his last nine, and went a stretch this season putting forth seven of 8. So what can we expect out of Bonser tonight? Hard to say, but we can conclude that it will be a young struggling pitcher that seems lost on the mound right now.
An Interesting Series
Orioles @ White Sox
Most people are looking at this series as a boring one, as they conclude that it is between to bottom feeder teams. However, it is an interesting one in my eyes, as it involves two teams of similar makeup. Both teams have been underachieving all season and have been plagued by some marquee injuries. Both teams have built the foundation of their lineups around veteran players past their primes and young players that have yet to reach theirs. Both teams have talented but underachieving bullpens, while both lineups have deviated from fundamental consistency and are simply not playing situational baseball. So how do you handle a series like this? Expect the unexpected, but also expect the games to be priced inefficiently as both teams are hard to value right now. Although there exists more value in other games on today’s card, game 1 in my opinion is trading off of it’s fair value, as there is slight value on the White Sox.
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