Tuesday Baseball - 1 Thought

I made a small wager on the Mutts today and well we all know how that went. I think I slowly want to get back into this and have been tweaking my style the last few days writing down leans which have actually been hitting better than I have been and what not so here is a writeup. This play is not placed yet but I have a very very strong lean to this play and would be fine making this the only one and calling it a day. I need to build my confidence back up and winning is the only way to do it. If I don't end up placing the wager at least some people could get some use out of the information.

Oakland -1 (-114):


Alright, Oakland just returned home after a brutal road trip which brought them from the Mutts to the Indians and than back to NY to face the Spankees. They sent out DiNardo Monday and he got hammered. Thats fine, the Jays got their road win for the series after popping off 16 hits and 11runs. The Jays however are not a good road team at all (16-24) and they moved to 3-5 on this trip. Taking the mound for the BJ's will be Jesse Litsch, famous for his first start of 8.2innings-4h-1er-3bb-1k and picking up the win at home vs. the Orioles. If you look at his other 3 starts you will understand why he got sent back down.

@Phi: L-4ip-7h-4er-1bb-1k
@Minn: ND-4.1ip-8h-3er-1bb-0k
NYY: L-0.2ip-4h-5er-2bb-1k

Burnett is on the DL and someone had to be called up to pitch so Litsch was the guy and he will make his first major league start since 5/30.. Now I want to also point out that his WHIP on the yr is 1.70 and in those last 3 games he racked up a 2.56WHIP. He is not a power pitcher and gets a lot of his outs from balls in play, lucky for him that Oakland is a big stadium since he has given up 4HR in 4starts. Batters are hitting .333 overall off him and he sports a .397OBP. I am fully aware he had a good outting last start in AAA but that is exactly what it is, minor league shit.

I think its important to show how dominant Blanton has been at home this yr.. On the yr he has started 7 games at home and has a 1.80era on the yr. On the yr he sports a 1.08WHIP and a .90WHIP in his last 3 games. His ERA over his last 3 games is also a 1.61 and he has pitched 22.1innings giving up 18hits. Overall batters are hitting just .235 off him and a scary .181 at home. Now with those type of numbers at home, its hard to believe the A's are not undefeated when he pitches at home. Run support gentlemen, run support!

Yanks: L 4-3........6.2ip-5h-3er
Seattle: L 2-0.........9ip-6h-2er
Cleveland: W 8-2.... 7ip-5h-2er
KC: ND 3-4.............8ip-5h-2er
Minny: W 1-0..........9ip-3h-0er
Boston: L 1-0........7.1ip-4h-1er
Cinci: W 6-1............8ip-7h-1er

Thats an average of about 7.2ip-5h-1.5er or 55ip-35h-11er.

Those numbers are from the beginning of the yr to his most recent start. The Yankees got him for the most run at home, a huge 3 and everyone else has been held to 2er or less. He shows dominance and consistency at home which is tough to beat and he has faced some of the best offenses in baseball in doing so. If the A's get any kind of support for him tomorrow than they take this game. It will take a great effort from Litsch and the Blue Jay bullpen to match Blanton tomorrow and an Oakland squad at home fresh off a loss. One other note, Blanton is 2-2 w/ 4.09era in 5games vs. Toronto. He picked up 1 loss in 06' at Toronto and 1 win at home..He got 1 loss in 05' in Toronto and 1 win at home while his team won the other game at home. As you can see while his career numbers are not great vs. the Jays, he hasn't lost to these guy at home.::knock on wood::

I'm locked in on this game, only 1 I am playing today.. Some other favorable trends..

Toronto as a road dog 13-20
Toronto as a 140 to 160 dog 2-6
Toronto as a road dog after a win 2-9
Toronto as a road dog vs. RHP after a win 2-7
Toronto as a 140 to 160 dog vs. RHP 1-5

Just want to add a few games I am thinking about getting into.


Cards -122: I don't trust Wellemyer one bit but the price is pretty cheap here for a team playing better and in my mind throwing the better pitcher. Randy has been scratched and now Petit will be pitching. Yusmeiro Petit has allowed just four earned runs in his past four starts (23 2/3 innings, 1.52 ERA) with Triple-A Tucson. He made 1 start this yr @ SF on 4/22 and went 7ip-4h-2er. Not bad numbers by any means but I just think the situation favors the Cards here.


BoSox/Tampa Under 9-110: Well Dice K is pitching the way the money expected him to be. Kazmir has some pretty decent numbers against the Sox and this total is maybe 1.5 runs too high. Kaz has to go 6-7 to limit the bullpen damage though.


Dodgers/Braves Over 9: If someone played the Dodgers it would be hard to argue against. The Braves are 3-11 in Davies last 14 starts on the road. He is pretty consistent though..5.42era on the yr, 5.87era in his last 3, 5.53era at home and 5.76era on the road. Notice all of the 5's? Wolf sports a 3.92era at home and is 6-3 when pitching in LA.

BOL ETG. Will be away for a few days, but hope I come back to find out you've hit your stride and are well on your way back from your slump.