Mets
It is not often in which you see a popular public team like the Mets priced this undervalued. However, after losing four straight games in dominant fashion, showing signs that the four game series in Philadelphia and today being their eighth road game in seven days may potentially be taking some air out of the team- and you have some people temporally parking their money elsewhere. Although its hard to imagine Maine keeping his current pitching dominance sustained, timing his regression may prove costly, as he has yet to show any signs of a slowdown, and has actually improved his biggest weakness of walking a high rate of batters in recent starts, walking just four batters in his last six outings, and posting a 27/4 K:BB ratio since the beginning of June. During the last two years, Maine has produced one of the best OBA in the league, making his improved walk rate that much more of an asset, as teams putting hitters on base has been hard to come by. Maine’s ground ball ratio has also improved in recent starts, an overlooked asset when pitching in a park like Houston’s. He has shown no ill-effect some young pitchers show when pitching on the road, as this is the second straight year where his road WHIP remains under 1.10. His slider and improved fastball are quickly becoming plus pitches in which most scouts have claimed he lacked, a big reason for predicted future regression. Maine’s dominated no team more than the Astros last year, as his two starts against them produced 15 innings, six hits and just two runs. His ability to overpower right handed hitters will put pressure on the lack talent the Astros bring from the left side. Maine has gone at least seven innings in his last three outings, and is backed by a top tier bullpen that did a good job conserving their better arms in last night’s debacle. Despite improving in recent series, Astros lines have more than caught up to their improvement. Their current 5-2 home stand could easily be a 2-5 one if it were not for their 9th inning come from behind wins, something that will be hard to due against Wagner.
Jennings is a solid pitcher (quietly putting forth a solid season) that usually trades for below his worth. However, the market may have caught up to his abilities and knowing that past year’s numbers may have been inflated by Coors (although Minute Maid is not much friendly to a home pitcher). That said, he too is prone to some regression, as the month of June was not terribly effective for him, and his current numbers against left handed hitters are well below his norm and abnormally efficient for a typical sinkerball pitcher. The Mets have the talent from the left side that often pose match up problems for a sinkerball pitcher, and having faced two right handed sinkerball pitchers in the last two games will make Jennings style far from a novelty. His inability to go deep into games this year (5.8 innings per start) is a detriment for an Astros team whose bullpen is struggling, injured and underachieving. Their bullpen also lacks a talented southpaw to counter the talent of the Mets left handed hitters. The Mets continue to be one of the best hitting road teams, and their power that is often diluted by their home park confines can be magnified in a park such as this.
Cardinals
Wainwright is slowly readjusting back to the starting role, and in the month of June showed his talent and true worth, posting an ERA of under 4 during that stretch. During the month, Wainwright’s plus curveball has significantly improved, while his improved groundball rate shows he is better locating his pitches and potentially less prone to the long ball that has been bothering him this season. His minor setback in his last start may also be a bit misleading, as three of this five runs came in the sixth inning in which he was squeezed, the culprit of him walking in a run, hitting a batter that forced in a run and the sac fly that was a product of his walks. Wainwright gets an ideal match up today, as he faces a young team not terribly potent against the off-speed pitch and high velocity disparity in which Wainwright has. The Diamondbacks are quietly losing that momentum and confidence that has helped them overachieve this season, as losing four of their last five, and scoring four or less in six of their last seven has put a halt to their division title bid. Backed by a solid bullpen should make it hard for a slumping Diamondbacks lineup to score throughout this game. The Diamondbacks are once again hitting more productively at home this season, and have just two starters coming into today’s game with a batting average of over .260 on the road.
As expected, the evident regression that Davis was prone to last month has come, as no pitcher that has been walking as many batters as he has could keep the numbers he was keeping sustained for long periods of time. That said, he is still prone to some more regression as his control continues to fail, as he is coming of a six walk allowed game, and is getting progressively easier to get hits off. Davis has a bad combination of walking hitters and lacking an overpowering pitch to make up for a high walk total. His six plus June ERA and 2 plus June WHIP is alarming and not deficiencies you want when facing a team that you have struggled against throughout your career. Although the Cardinals are not terribly effective against left handed pitching, they are more vulnerable against the power southpaws (which Davis is not), have a couple role players in Molina, Spezio (who should be available today) and Taguchi hitting them well, while the heart of the lineup has had success against Davis throughout his career. Although the Cardinals lack the ideal patience to take advantage of Davis’s walk propensity, they make the most of their free passes with their productive outs. The Cardinals have been hitting much better during the last month. No other team in baseball is more dependent on a hitter like the Cardinals are with Pujols, who is hitting over .500 in his last two series.
It is not often in which you see a popular public team like the Mets priced this undervalued. However, after losing four straight games in dominant fashion, showing signs that the four game series in Philadelphia and today being their eighth road game in seven days may potentially be taking some air out of the team- and you have some people temporally parking their money elsewhere. Although its hard to imagine Maine keeping his current pitching dominance sustained, timing his regression may prove costly, as he has yet to show any signs of a slowdown, and has actually improved his biggest weakness of walking a high rate of batters in recent starts, walking just four batters in his last six outings, and posting a 27/4 K:BB ratio since the beginning of June. During the last two years, Maine has produced one of the best OBA in the league, making his improved walk rate that much more of an asset, as teams putting hitters on base has been hard to come by. Maine’s ground ball ratio has also improved in recent starts, an overlooked asset when pitching in a park like Houston’s. He has shown no ill-effect some young pitchers show when pitching on the road, as this is the second straight year where his road WHIP remains under 1.10. His slider and improved fastball are quickly becoming plus pitches in which most scouts have claimed he lacked, a big reason for predicted future regression. Maine’s dominated no team more than the Astros last year, as his two starts against them produced 15 innings, six hits and just two runs. His ability to overpower right handed hitters will put pressure on the lack talent the Astros bring from the left side. Maine has gone at least seven innings in his last three outings, and is backed by a top tier bullpen that did a good job conserving their better arms in last night’s debacle. Despite improving in recent series, Astros lines have more than caught up to their improvement. Their current 5-2 home stand could easily be a 2-5 one if it were not for their 9th inning come from behind wins, something that will be hard to due against Wagner.
Jennings is a solid pitcher (quietly putting forth a solid season) that usually trades for below his worth. However, the market may have caught up to his abilities and knowing that past year’s numbers may have been inflated by Coors (although Minute Maid is not much friendly to a home pitcher). That said, he too is prone to some regression, as the month of June was not terribly effective for him, and his current numbers against left handed hitters are well below his norm and abnormally efficient for a typical sinkerball pitcher. The Mets have the talent from the left side that often pose match up problems for a sinkerball pitcher, and having faced two right handed sinkerball pitchers in the last two games will make Jennings style far from a novelty. His inability to go deep into games this year (5.8 innings per start) is a detriment for an Astros team whose bullpen is struggling, injured and underachieving. Their bullpen also lacks a talented southpaw to counter the talent of the Mets left handed hitters. The Mets continue to be one of the best hitting road teams, and their power that is often diluted by their home park confines can be magnified in a park such as this.
Cardinals
Wainwright is slowly readjusting back to the starting role, and in the month of June showed his talent and true worth, posting an ERA of under 4 during that stretch. During the month, Wainwright’s plus curveball has significantly improved, while his improved groundball rate shows he is better locating his pitches and potentially less prone to the long ball that has been bothering him this season. His minor setback in his last start may also be a bit misleading, as three of this five runs came in the sixth inning in which he was squeezed, the culprit of him walking in a run, hitting a batter that forced in a run and the sac fly that was a product of his walks. Wainwright gets an ideal match up today, as he faces a young team not terribly potent against the off-speed pitch and high velocity disparity in which Wainwright has. The Diamondbacks are quietly losing that momentum and confidence that has helped them overachieve this season, as losing four of their last five, and scoring four or less in six of their last seven has put a halt to their division title bid. Backed by a solid bullpen should make it hard for a slumping Diamondbacks lineup to score throughout this game. The Diamondbacks are once again hitting more productively at home this season, and have just two starters coming into today’s game with a batting average of over .260 on the road.
As expected, the evident regression that Davis was prone to last month has come, as no pitcher that has been walking as many batters as he has could keep the numbers he was keeping sustained for long periods of time. That said, he is still prone to some more regression as his control continues to fail, as he is coming of a six walk allowed game, and is getting progressively easier to get hits off. Davis has a bad combination of walking hitters and lacking an overpowering pitch to make up for a high walk total. His six plus June ERA and 2 plus June WHIP is alarming and not deficiencies you want when facing a team that you have struggled against throughout your career. Although the Cardinals are not terribly effective against left handed pitching, they are more vulnerable against the power southpaws (which Davis is not), have a couple role players in Molina, Spezio (who should be available today) and Taguchi hitting them well, while the heart of the lineup has had success against Davis throughout his career. Although the Cardinals lack the ideal patience to take advantage of Davis’s walk propensity, they make the most of their free passes with their productive outs. The Cardinals have been hitting much better during the last month. No other team in baseball is more dependent on a hitter like the Cardinals are with Pujols, who is hitting over .500 in his last two series.
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