I look for lineups, umps and even wind in the case of totals. This causes me to post later and some miss the plays, but I'm only going to post them if I play them and I am not playing them if the situation is not right. Some plays are based more on fading the public along with other factors. With these plays the lineups etc are not as important. The White sox total was this. A book I respect very much told me he was extremely heavy on the under and that many had pressed their bets beyond their normal wager size. This does not always win, but it sure seems that way. Ill bet the plays he gives me are around 60-65% at least.
One of the 5 or 6 ways I cap a game is pitching matchups. Throw out Willis's recent struggles. You are looking at the ace of one staff vs the number 5,6 or possibly even the #7 starter for the other. And the ace is getting plus money. Willis is also wanting to perform for those teams looking at trading for him.
Another wierd thing I concider before the allstar game. Devalue the allstar pitchers and add value to those that were shunned, just missed or have been allstars in the recent past. It is not as strong as fade and play, but I really believe in this as a handicapping tool. Look at Peavy, Penny, Smoltz, Sheets etc. All struggled after being announced. Look at those just missing. Young, Zambrono, Maine etc. All had outstanding starts after being snubbed.
Just something to think about.
Another wierd thing I concider before the allstar game. Devalue the allstar pitchers and add value to those that were shunned, just missed or have been allstars in the recent past. It is not as strong as fade and play, but I really believe in this as a handicapping tool. Look at Peavy, Penny, Smoltz, Sheets etc. All struggled after being announced. Look at those just missing. Young, Zambrono, Maine etc. All had outstanding starts after being snubbed.
Just something to think about.
