Larry Ness' 20* NL Game of the Month (140-68 Y-T-D / 8-3 TY with 20*s!)
My 20* play is on the SD Padres at 8:05 ET. When the Padres score some runs, they win! San Diego (49-37) had averaged just 2.9 runs in its previous 16 contests before beating the Braves 8-5 on Saturday. The Padres are now an impressive 24-0 when scoring six or more runs. Scoring against Atlanta's Kyle Davies should not be much of a task. Davies went 3-7 with an 8.38 ERA in 14 starts for the Braves last year (team was 5-9) and enters this game at 3-7 with a 5.85 ERA in 15 starts in '07 (team is 6-9). He's been HAMMERED in his last five starts, going 0-4 with an 8.06 ERA (team is 0-5). San Diego, a solid 14-9 in day games this year, will send Greg Maddux to the mound to pitch against his ex-teammates (spent 11 seasons with Atlanta). Maddux opened the '07 season with a poor home start vs the Rockies back on April 6 (5.1 IP / 4 ERs) and was terrible in his last outing, allowing six ERs in 6.1 innings at Petco. However, in his six other home starts this year, has allowed just 10 ERs in 40 innings, for a 2.25 ERA. Maddux hasn't been "showing his age" this season, as he has lasted at least six innings in seven consecutive starts! Expect the Padres to cruise to their 50th win of the year in this one. NL Game of the Month 20* SD Padres.
Larry Ness' Spectacular Sunday Total (18-4 or 82% winners TY!)
My Spectacular Sunday Total is on Fla/LAD Over at 4:10 ET. The Marlins have come into Dodger Stadium where they haven't been too successful recently and taken the first two games of this series. The Marlins have scored 13 runs in the two wins, getting 23 hits. LA has not exactly been shut down, as the Dodgers have 21 hits in the two games but LA has stranded 23 base runners in the losses. Scoring against lefty Scott Olsen should be much easier for LA this afternoon. The Dodgers have averaged 5.1 RPG against left-handed starters in '07 (23 games) and Olsen has been far from effective this year, especially on the road. In nine road starts in '07, he's allowed 63 hits in 47.2 innings with a 5.67 ERA. As for LA, they'll send 6-9 lefty Mark Hendrickson to the mound, bringing him back on just three days rest. Hendrickson made eight starts for LA from 4/19 through 5/31, getting off to a quick start but faded fast. He allowed just two ERs over 16.2 innings in his first three starts (1.08 ERA) but then IMPLODED, allowing 21 ERs over 26.1 innings in a five-start stretch that gave him a 7.18 ERA. He was sent back to the bullpen before he was given a start on July 4th. He pitched OK in LA's 5-2 loss (5 IP / 7 hits / 2 ERs) but I don't much like him coming back here, on short rest. The Marlins are "seeing the ball well" in this series and it won't help Hendrickson's confidence that he is 1-1 with a 7.04 ERA in five career starts against the Marlins, either. Spectacular Sunday Total on Fla/LAD Over.
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My 20* play is on the SD Padres at 8:05 ET. When the Padres score some runs, they win! San Diego (49-37) had averaged just 2.9 runs in its previous 16 contests before beating the Braves 8-5 on Saturday. The Padres are now an impressive 24-0 when scoring six or more runs. Scoring against Atlanta's Kyle Davies should not be much of a task. Davies went 3-7 with an 8.38 ERA in 14 starts for the Braves last year (team was 5-9) and enters this game at 3-7 with a 5.85 ERA in 15 starts in '07 (team is 6-9). He's been HAMMERED in his last five starts, going 0-4 with an 8.06 ERA (team is 0-5). San Diego, a solid 14-9 in day games this year, will send Greg Maddux to the mound to pitch against his ex-teammates (spent 11 seasons with Atlanta). Maddux opened the '07 season with a poor home start vs the Rockies back on April 6 (5.1 IP / 4 ERs) and was terrible in his last outing, allowing six ERs in 6.1 innings at Petco. However, in his six other home starts this year, has allowed just 10 ERs in 40 innings, for a 2.25 ERA. Maddux hasn't been "showing his age" this season, as he has lasted at least six innings in seven consecutive starts! Expect the Padres to cruise to their 50th win of the year in this one. NL Game of the Month 20* SD Padres.
Larry Ness' Spectacular Sunday Total (18-4 or 82% winners TY!)
My Spectacular Sunday Total is on Fla/LAD Over at 4:10 ET. The Marlins have come into Dodger Stadium where they haven't been too successful recently and taken the first two games of this series. The Marlins have scored 13 runs in the two wins, getting 23 hits. LA has not exactly been shut down, as the Dodgers have 21 hits in the two games but LA has stranded 23 base runners in the losses. Scoring against lefty Scott Olsen should be much easier for LA this afternoon. The Dodgers have averaged 5.1 RPG against left-handed starters in '07 (23 games) and Olsen has been far from effective this year, especially on the road. In nine road starts in '07, he's allowed 63 hits in 47.2 innings with a 5.67 ERA. As for LA, they'll send 6-9 lefty Mark Hendrickson to the mound, bringing him back on just three days rest. Hendrickson made eight starts for LA from 4/19 through 5/31, getting off to a quick start but faded fast. He allowed just two ERs over 16.2 innings in his first three starts (1.08 ERA) but then IMPLODED, allowing 21 ERs over 26.1 innings in a five-start stretch that gave him a 7.18 ERA. He was sent back to the bullpen before he was given a start on July 4th. He pitched OK in LA's 5-2 loss (5 IP / 7 hits / 2 ERs) but I don't much like him coming back here, on short rest. The Marlins are "seeing the ball well" in this series and it won't help Hendrickson's confidence that he is 1-1 with a 7.04 ERA in five career starts against the Marlins, either. Spectacular Sunday Total on Fla/LAD Over.
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