Jibba's Sunday MLB

Post 6/27/07 record:

Favorites: 9-5 for +2.78 units.
Underdogs: 13-11 for +4.95 units.
ML Total: 18-13 for +7.73 units.

Totals: 3-2-1 for +1.04 units.

Run lines: 0-1 for -0.5 units.

Pre 6/27/07 record:

Favorites: 156-106 for +5.61 units.
Underdogs: 63-71 for +11.82 units.
Total: 219-177 for +17.43 units.

Totals: 5-2 for +3.33 units.
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Had a decent day yesterday and hope to finish up with another before the All Star Break.

Red Sox -133: I'm not thrilled about betting the Sox without Manny today. But this Sox team doesn't rely on Manny as much as it did in years past. With the way Boston has hit Robertson, and the way Robertson has struggled lately, I think the Red Sox will still find ways to score some runs. On the other side, Matsuzaka has been money lately and I'll stick with him until he falters. 1.33 units to win 1.

Blue Jays +122: Just about everyone is on the Tribe today, but I can't bring myself to do it. Too many times this year have I laid small juice on the Indians on the road only to watch them come out looking horrible. Paul Byrd takes the hill today for Cleveland and if his past at the Rogers Centre is any indication, it could be a long day. In his only 2 career starts in the Rogers Centre, he's 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA and a .304 BAA. On the other side, Josh Towers will be throwing for Toronto, and will be shooting for his 3rd straight win. Towers has never been anything special, but not much worse than Byrd, all things considered. The biggest difference between the two is about a run in the ERA department (4.71 v. 5.71 for Towers). They have nearly identical WHIPs, low walk totals, higher than average HRs allowed, and a high BAA.

So after all this, for me it comes down to the fact that Cleveland is much worse on the road and Toronto is much better at home. So far this year, the Tribe is 2 games under .500 on the road, while Toronto is 6 games over .500 at home. Toronto has also won 7 of their last 11 at home while the Indians have only won 3 of their last 8 on the road. I'm done asking myself why I continue to back this Cleveland team on the road. I'll take the home doggie here and hopefully not end up asking why I went against so many good cappers here on the Rx. 1 unit to win 1.22.

Devil Rays -120: Kazmir hasn't pitched great against KC in his career, but I still can't resist getting him at this price. De la Rosa is so inconsistent and Tampa, despite yesterday's loss, has won 12 of their last 16 against KC. With signs of life in TB's lineup yesterday, I feel pretty safe laying juice on a bad Devil Rays team on the road. 1.20 units to win 1.

Diamondbacks +140: Despite Harang's solid performances lately, and in the past against Arizona, I have to back the dogs here. Arizona is a much better team and I really like the young kid they have starting today. Yusmeiro Petit has overpowering stuff and I like his chances against the Reds today, despite their recent success. I know Harang has been nasty lately and at home this year, but tis Reds team is just too bad to be favored at this number IMO. 1 unit to win 1.4.

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Will probably be back in a few with a couple more. BOL to everyone today.
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Thanks Primoz. BOL today.

Adding a couple big dogs:

Angels +184: This line is just ridiculous. NY comes in 2 games under .500 against the Angels, who hold the second best record in baseball. While the Angels aren't a great road team, they are respectable. And they have had a ton of success in recent years against the Yankees. In fact, the Angels are the only team in the American League with a winning record against Joe Torre's Yankees (59-53 overall, 32-25 in Yankee Stadium). The Angels come in today having won 19 of their last 28 against the Yankees and 4 of 5 this year. And today they'll face a pitcher they've hit pretty well in the past. In his only 2 starts against LAA, Wang is 0-2 with a 5.44 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and a .339 BAA. And a look through LAA's lineup shows a number of guys who have hit Wang fairly well.

Obviously a big part of the reason for this line is Ervin Santana and his 7+ road ERA. While this kid has definitely had his problems on the road, I can't help but wonder how much of it is mental at this point. And if that's the case, I'm hoping a game against the Yankees is just what he needs. In 4 career starts against NY, Santana is 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .253 BAA (6.1 solid 1-run innings in his only start in Yankee Stadium). With all this, I just can't see the Yankees being massive favorites like they are. 1 unit to win 1.82.

Mariners +182: Seattle is playing well and Oakland is not. Joe Blanton is being annointed a top starter too quickly IMO, and I'll take the much better team here as a huge dog. Seattle has faced Blanton twice this year, and although he pitched well in both, the A's have gone 0-2 in those games for obvious reasons. They can't score. And that problem has gotten worse as they've scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight games now. Feierabend may be the cure for the A's offensive woes, but on the other hand, if he can hold LAA to 8 hits and 4 runs in 6.2 innings in LAA, I think he can potentially shut down Oakland tonight. 1 unit to win 1.82.

BOL today Jibba. Like the ARI writeup and love the idea of taking shots with LAA and SEA. Hope these all cash bro!

gl today jibba..

1-4 for -3.31 for a very frustrating Sunday (assuming TB loses). Detroit did everything they could to hand Boston the game today, but the Sox just couldn't capitalize. Although I wanted to toss my television out the window after the horrible strikeout call against Manny in the 8th. And once again I get a decent dog into extra innings with the better bullpen but can't pull it out. Could be worse, as Toronto pulled out a very tight game. Anyway, if Seattle can pull out a big upset against Oakland, the day won't be all that bad. May have a play on Sunday Night Baseball but not sure yet.

Hope everyone made some money today.

2-4 for -1.49 units on the day with the late dog saving me from a very bad day.

I added the SD game earlier and didn't post it. Was able to get -130 but obviously that number is gone. Will add it with the current line but for half a unit as it's borderline with my new system at this line.

Padres -138: 0.69 units to win 0.5.

BOL to everyone tonight.