I am not terribly surprised to see an efficient market place on Thursday, which consists of a small card that had a three day pricing timetable. Nonetheless, here is my analysis of 3 interesting games on Thursday’s card, which may not consist of any plays given not material line movement change.
Yankees @ Devil Rays
The Devil Rays have provided value gems in past years when playing the Yankees. Being a team highly dependent on the motivational aspect of the game, they Devil Rays have shown a tendency to raise their play to the level of their competition. The Break could not have come at a better time for this team either, as time, along with a home series against the Yankees may have slowdown the downward momentum this team has been playing with for a few series now. Their bullpen had gotten so bad, that not only were they the easiest pen to get hits off of, but their inability to throw strikes didn’t even force a team to make contact with the ball to get runs home. That said, one should take not of Shields recent downward trend, and proceed with caution, as it may be more than a slump- rather a case of dead arm caused by the heavy workload demanded out of him due to the bullpens inefficiency. The Devil Rays plan of going to a six man rotation is commensurate to such notion. Although some extra time off may have helped Shields, playing the Yankees shouldn’t. Not only did the Yankees prove capable of getting to Shields last year, but his fundamental style of pitching, which is heavily dependent on getting hitters to chase his off speed pitches (predominantly his changeup) is counterproductive against such a patient lineup. It is no surprise that the Yankees lineup consists of just one start who’s off speed chase rate is above the league median. Shields efficiently numbers (getting ahead early, 1-2-3 innings, and pitches per batter have been getting progressively worse). Although his talent level can allow him to overcome such trends without a decrease in runs, it won’t allow him to eat up innings in the same manner as early in the season, a huge disadvantage when backed by the worst pen in the game. Without Reyes, the Devil Rays pen might be the worst baseball has seen in a long time.
Shields is not the only starter in this game currently in a downward cycle, as Pettitte has been as ineffective as it gets of late as well. Allowing 19 hits in the last seven innings is strong evidence that this may be more than a slump as well. His command has been lacking early in counts, which costs him more than most, as he lacks the dominant pitch to challenge hitters with. Although the Devil Rays are a lineup that will go out of the zone more than most, Pettite’s command has gotten so bad, that the % chased has taken a drastic decrease that may not be helped by an impatient lineup.
Both pitchers inherent risks stemmed from their recent struggles, coupled with the lack of consistency both lineups provide increases the margin of safety requirement of both teams. Nonetheless, the current line appears to be set right in my opinion.
White Sox @ Orioles
Probably no other pitcher in baseball wants to take the mound more than Garland, as he wants to make up for his embarrassment performance in the infamous doubleheader against the Twins last week. This performance has raised question to the knot in his throwing arm and the future effects on his effectiveness. Claiming it has been an ongoing issue that was existent during Garlands solid June, leads me to believe he could bounce back from such an outing. Being a pitcher more dependent on command over velocity should allow him to manage the deficiency more effectively. Garland’s dominance over left handed hitters this year, being one of the hardest pitchers to steal against, and being able to keep the ball down and counter small parks will diminish the greatest assets the Orioles lineup has in a given home game. Being able to go deep into games with high efficiency ratings should offset the White Sox bullpen risks, as should the extra time off to heal their tired arms caused by the Twins series.
I still don’t know what to make out of Guthrie, as some of his secondary numbers have been at levels not sustainable by elite pitchers. He has slowly regressed since than, and is still a candidate for more regression. With that said, the market seems to have the same expectations, as he has yet to carry an inflated price tag in any of his starts. The White Sox bats have started to heat up a bit, and should continue to do so, just not at the levels they have been accustomed too.
Small value on the White Sox, as their struggles are well known, while Guthrie’s lack of sustainability may not be as much. White Sox should be considered at anything better than a +120 offering in my opinion.
Tigers @ Mariners
It seems like the market place is not buying into Miller’s recent solid outings, which is rare occurrence when a young pitcher that is backed by a top tier lineup is pitching sharp. But they probably shouldn’t be, as there is enough evidence for a set back. Miller’s inability to work an effective off speed pitch will sooner or later catch up to him, which may be sooner, as he is facing a solid fastball hitting lineup. His high pitch counter per batter will catch up to him thanks to the Tigers bullpen concerns. His high walk total and Whip are not commensurate to his current ERA level. With no signs of improved command, it appears that the ERA is the one to budge.
Hernandez has been more hit or miss compared to most elite pitchers, but his miss starts have been correlated to improper mechanics and injuries rather than being overmatched by dangerous lineups like the one he will be up against. Known to get better as the season progresses, the worst may be over for this talent. His stuff can overpower any lineup, Tigers included. His effectiveness with his off speed pitches can counter the Tigers aggressiveness at the plate and allow him to not rely on the fastball in which the Tigers are the most potent lineup in the league in hitting. The Mariners bullpen allows a pitching advantage throughout this game.
That said, the market seems agree that the pitching edge and home field advantage is worth more than the edge the Tigers have at the plate. No value on either team in what should be an interesting match up.
Yankees @ Devil Rays
The Devil Rays have provided value gems in past years when playing the Yankees. Being a team highly dependent on the motivational aspect of the game, they Devil Rays have shown a tendency to raise their play to the level of their competition. The Break could not have come at a better time for this team either, as time, along with a home series against the Yankees may have slowdown the downward momentum this team has been playing with for a few series now. Their bullpen had gotten so bad, that not only were they the easiest pen to get hits off of, but their inability to throw strikes didn’t even force a team to make contact with the ball to get runs home. That said, one should take not of Shields recent downward trend, and proceed with caution, as it may be more than a slump- rather a case of dead arm caused by the heavy workload demanded out of him due to the bullpens inefficiency. The Devil Rays plan of going to a six man rotation is commensurate to such notion. Although some extra time off may have helped Shields, playing the Yankees shouldn’t. Not only did the Yankees prove capable of getting to Shields last year, but his fundamental style of pitching, which is heavily dependent on getting hitters to chase his off speed pitches (predominantly his changeup) is counterproductive against such a patient lineup. It is no surprise that the Yankees lineup consists of just one start who’s off speed chase rate is above the league median. Shields efficiently numbers (getting ahead early, 1-2-3 innings, and pitches per batter have been getting progressively worse). Although his talent level can allow him to overcome such trends without a decrease in runs, it won’t allow him to eat up innings in the same manner as early in the season, a huge disadvantage when backed by the worst pen in the game. Without Reyes, the Devil Rays pen might be the worst baseball has seen in a long time.
Shields is not the only starter in this game currently in a downward cycle, as Pettitte has been as ineffective as it gets of late as well. Allowing 19 hits in the last seven innings is strong evidence that this may be more than a slump as well. His command has been lacking early in counts, which costs him more than most, as he lacks the dominant pitch to challenge hitters with. Although the Devil Rays are a lineup that will go out of the zone more than most, Pettite’s command has gotten so bad, that the % chased has taken a drastic decrease that may not be helped by an impatient lineup.
Both pitchers inherent risks stemmed from their recent struggles, coupled with the lack of consistency both lineups provide increases the margin of safety requirement of both teams. Nonetheless, the current line appears to be set right in my opinion.
White Sox @ Orioles
Probably no other pitcher in baseball wants to take the mound more than Garland, as he wants to make up for his embarrassment performance in the infamous doubleheader against the Twins last week. This performance has raised question to the knot in his throwing arm and the future effects on his effectiveness. Claiming it has been an ongoing issue that was existent during Garlands solid June, leads me to believe he could bounce back from such an outing. Being a pitcher more dependent on command over velocity should allow him to manage the deficiency more effectively. Garland’s dominance over left handed hitters this year, being one of the hardest pitchers to steal against, and being able to keep the ball down and counter small parks will diminish the greatest assets the Orioles lineup has in a given home game. Being able to go deep into games with high efficiency ratings should offset the White Sox bullpen risks, as should the extra time off to heal their tired arms caused by the Twins series.
I still don’t know what to make out of Guthrie, as some of his secondary numbers have been at levels not sustainable by elite pitchers. He has slowly regressed since than, and is still a candidate for more regression. With that said, the market seems to have the same expectations, as he has yet to carry an inflated price tag in any of his starts. The White Sox bats have started to heat up a bit, and should continue to do so, just not at the levels they have been accustomed too.
Small value on the White Sox, as their struggles are well known, while Guthrie’s lack of sustainability may not be as much. White Sox should be considered at anything better than a +120 offering in my opinion.
Tigers @ Mariners
It seems like the market place is not buying into Miller’s recent solid outings, which is rare occurrence when a young pitcher that is backed by a top tier lineup is pitching sharp. But they probably shouldn’t be, as there is enough evidence for a set back. Miller’s inability to work an effective off speed pitch will sooner or later catch up to him, which may be sooner, as he is facing a solid fastball hitting lineup. His high pitch counter per batter will catch up to him thanks to the Tigers bullpen concerns. His high walk total and Whip are not commensurate to his current ERA level. With no signs of improved command, it appears that the ERA is the one to budge.
Hernandez has been more hit or miss compared to most elite pitchers, but his miss starts have been correlated to improper mechanics and injuries rather than being overmatched by dangerous lineups like the one he will be up against. Known to get better as the season progresses, the worst may be over for this talent. His stuff can overpower any lineup, Tigers included. His effectiveness with his off speed pitches can counter the Tigers aggressiveness at the plate and allow him to not rely on the fastball in which the Tigers are the most potent lineup in the league in hitting. The Mariners bullpen allows a pitching advantage throughout this game.
That said, the market seems agree that the pitching edge and home field advantage is worth more than the edge the Tigers have at the plate. No value on either team in what should be an interesting match up.
