MLB Mid-Season Report-it's all in the numbers
By Larry Ness
The AL took the interleague series from its NL counterparts for the fourth consecutive year. The AL won 136 of the 252 games played, a winning percentage of .540. It's the exact same wining mark it produced back in 2005 (136-116) but is was shy of the 154-98 record the Al posted in 2006 (.611). The last time the NL won its in-season series against the AL was back in 2003 (NL went 137-115).
With that in mind, it should come as no surprise that at this year's All Star break, AL teams own the top-five records in MLB. The Red Sox finished the season's first half at 53-34, followed by the Tigers (52-34), the Angels (53-35), the Indians (52-36) and the Mariners (49-36).
NL teams own the next six-best records. The Padres are 49-38, the Brewers 49-39, the Mets 48-39, the Dodgers 49-40, the Braves 47-42 and the Diamondbacks 47-43. The Indians own MLB's best home records (31-12), followed by the Brewers (30-13) and Angels (29-13). The Tigers own the best road record at 27-15 with the Padres (24-18) coming in second and the Mets and Red Sox tying for the majors' third-best away marks (25-20).
The Devil Rays, well on their way to their 10th last-place finish in their 11-year history, finished the season's first-half with MLB's worst overall mark at 34-53. The Reds, at 36-52, own the NL's worst mark. The Marlins (at 17-25) currently own MLB's worst home mark, followed by the Nationals (19-27) and the Royals (20-28). The D'Rays own MLB's worst road mark (15-29), followed by the Astros (15-28) and the Rangers (16-28).
The above records are noteworthy but in "our business," it's the "moneyline standings" that really matter! Last year, at $100/game, only 10 of the league's 30 teams finished plus-money for the entire season, with five teams (led by the Twins at plus-$2,415) topping profits of at $1,000 for the year. That left 20 teams at minus money for the year, with 10 of those teams losing at least $1,000. The Cubs (minus-$2,455) finished dead-last, while the eventual World Series champs (the St. Louis Cards), finished 28th of 30 teams at minus-$1,717.
At the break, only two teams have shown of profit of at least $1,000. The Mariners top the list at plus-$1,899, with the Tigers coming in second at plus-$1,247. The Red Sox (plus-$808), the Indians (plus-$783) and the Angels (plus-$699), round out the top-five moneymakers. The Nationals, despite a 36-52 mark, are the NL's top moneymakers at the break. They are plus-$655, ranking sixth overall in MLB, just ahead of the 49-39 Brewers, who come in seventh at plus-$602.
Of the 17 teams that are losing money at the break, 10 are already down more than $1,000. The Yankees, despite being just one game under .500 (42-43), are MLB's biggest "moneyburners," at minus-$2,137. Meanwhile, the Reds (minus-$1,645) are the NL's biggest losers. The remainder of the "bottom-10" list includes the Astros (minus-$1,438), Devil Rays (minus-$-1,413), Orioles (minus-$1,196), Giants (minus-$1,012) and Cubs (minus-$1,002), who finished 30th last year.
Since a team's starting pitcher has the greatest influence on the daily moneyline, let's look at the biggest winners and losers among the starters. The Brewers are 12-3 (plus-$974 in Claudio Vargas' 15 starts this year, making him MLB's biggest moneymaker. Aaron Harang (Reds), 14-5 and plus-$932 comes in second, with Micah Bowie (Nats) at 7-1 and plus-$911 coming in third. Now who could have expected those three pitchers to top the list at the break?
In fact, just two of MLB's top-10 moneymakers among starters, Brad Penny and C.C. Sabathia, made this year's All Star game. Vargas' ERA is 4.52, Harang's is 3.67 and Bowie's is 4.39.
Among the top-10 money-making starters are Todd Wellemeyer (6) of the Cards (7-1 plus-$849 with a 4.19 ERA), Matt Chico (8) of the Nationals (10-8 plus-$748 with a 4.39 ERA), Brad Thompson (9) of the Cards (8-8 plus-$748 with a 4.80 ERA) and Cha-Seung Baek (10) of the Mariners (8-3 plus-$695 with a 5.74 ERA).
You may notice two St. Louis starters among the top-10 moneymakers but it should also be pointed out that two Cards are also at the bottom the list, as well. While San Francisco's Matt Cain (3-14 at minus-$1.336) ranks last among 243 pitchers who have made at least one start in 2007, Cardinals occupy the 242nd and 241st spots.
The Cards are just 2-13 in Kip Wells' 15 starts this year (minus-$1,247) and 1-11 in Anthony Reyes' 12 starts (minus-$1,155). Joe Kennedy of the A's, is the only other starting pitcher who ends the season's first half with losses of more than $1,000 (3-13 and minus-$1,136).
This year's All Star game starters, Dan Haren (A's) and Jake Peavy (Padres), have both made strong comebacks from last year. The A's went 18-16 (minus-$216) in Haren's starts last year (ranked 236 of 329) and the Padres went 15-17 (minus-$839) in Peavy's starts (321st). This year, the A's are 13-6 (plus-$523) in Haren's starts (ranking him 22 of 243) and the Padres are 13-5 (plus-$377) in Peavy's starts (ranks 36th).
I've always believed that run-differential, like point-differential in the NBA, gives us a great insight into which is the league's best team(s). You may remember that I pointed out before the playoffs, that the Spurs (at plus-8.4 PPG) not the Suns (plus-7.3 PPG) or the Mavs (plus-7.2 PPG), owned the league's best point-differential?
The Tigers (plus-109 runs) own MLB's best run-differential, with the Red Sox (plus-89) and the Padres (plus-78) coming in second an third, respectively. The surprise fourth-place finisher in the Yankees, at plus-70 runs, despite the team's 42-43 record.
However, the Yankees are so consistently overpriced (note the team's 30th-place ranking in the moneyline standings), that while I expect the Yankees to make a run in the second half, it's hard to call for a second-half turnaround against the moneyline.
Two teams I do expect to be moneymakers in the second half are the Giants and the Reds. Despite a 38-48 record, the Giants have outscored their opponents by three runs. As for the Reds, they may own the NL's worst record at 36-52 but they have only been outscored by 36 runs.
Note that the Diamondbacks, at 47-43, have been outscored by 30 runs so far. I'll go out on a limb (not really) and call for the Reds to out=perform the Diamondbacks (in both the regular and moneyline standings) during the season's second half.
:money8:
By Larry Ness
The AL took the interleague series from its NL counterparts for the fourth consecutive year. The AL won 136 of the 252 games played, a winning percentage of .540. It's the exact same wining mark it produced back in 2005 (136-116) but is was shy of the 154-98 record the Al posted in 2006 (.611). The last time the NL won its in-season series against the AL was back in 2003 (NL went 137-115).
With that in mind, it should come as no surprise that at this year's All Star break, AL teams own the top-five records in MLB. The Red Sox finished the season's first half at 53-34, followed by the Tigers (52-34), the Angels (53-35), the Indians (52-36) and the Mariners (49-36).
NL teams own the next six-best records. The Padres are 49-38, the Brewers 49-39, the Mets 48-39, the Dodgers 49-40, the Braves 47-42 and the Diamondbacks 47-43. The Indians own MLB's best home records (31-12), followed by the Brewers (30-13) and Angels (29-13). The Tigers own the best road record at 27-15 with the Padres (24-18) coming in second and the Mets and Red Sox tying for the majors' third-best away marks (25-20).
The Devil Rays, well on their way to their 10th last-place finish in their 11-year history, finished the season's first-half with MLB's worst overall mark at 34-53. The Reds, at 36-52, own the NL's worst mark. The Marlins (at 17-25) currently own MLB's worst home mark, followed by the Nationals (19-27) and the Royals (20-28). The D'Rays own MLB's worst road mark (15-29), followed by the Astros (15-28) and the Rangers (16-28).
The above records are noteworthy but in "our business," it's the "moneyline standings" that really matter! Last year, at $100/game, only 10 of the league's 30 teams finished plus-money for the entire season, with five teams (led by the Twins at plus-$2,415) topping profits of at $1,000 for the year. That left 20 teams at minus money for the year, with 10 of those teams losing at least $1,000. The Cubs (minus-$2,455) finished dead-last, while the eventual World Series champs (the St. Louis Cards), finished 28th of 30 teams at minus-$1,717.
At the break, only two teams have shown of profit of at least $1,000. The Mariners top the list at plus-$1,899, with the Tigers coming in second at plus-$1,247. The Red Sox (plus-$808), the Indians (plus-$783) and the Angels (plus-$699), round out the top-five moneymakers. The Nationals, despite a 36-52 mark, are the NL's top moneymakers at the break. They are plus-$655, ranking sixth overall in MLB, just ahead of the 49-39 Brewers, who come in seventh at plus-$602.
Of the 17 teams that are losing money at the break, 10 are already down more than $1,000. The Yankees, despite being just one game under .500 (42-43), are MLB's biggest "moneyburners," at minus-$2,137. Meanwhile, the Reds (minus-$1,645) are the NL's biggest losers. The remainder of the "bottom-10" list includes the Astros (minus-$1,438), Devil Rays (minus-$-1,413), Orioles (minus-$1,196), Giants (minus-$1,012) and Cubs (minus-$1,002), who finished 30th last year.
Since a team's starting pitcher has the greatest influence on the daily moneyline, let's look at the biggest winners and losers among the starters. The Brewers are 12-3 (plus-$974 in Claudio Vargas' 15 starts this year, making him MLB's biggest moneymaker. Aaron Harang (Reds), 14-5 and plus-$932 comes in second, with Micah Bowie (Nats) at 7-1 and plus-$911 coming in third. Now who could have expected those three pitchers to top the list at the break?
In fact, just two of MLB's top-10 moneymakers among starters, Brad Penny and C.C. Sabathia, made this year's All Star game. Vargas' ERA is 4.52, Harang's is 3.67 and Bowie's is 4.39.
Among the top-10 money-making starters are Todd Wellemeyer (6) of the Cards (7-1 plus-$849 with a 4.19 ERA), Matt Chico (8) of the Nationals (10-8 plus-$748 with a 4.39 ERA), Brad Thompson (9) of the Cards (8-8 plus-$748 with a 4.80 ERA) and Cha-Seung Baek (10) of the Mariners (8-3 plus-$695 with a 5.74 ERA).
You may notice two St. Louis starters among the top-10 moneymakers but it should also be pointed out that two Cards are also at the bottom the list, as well. While San Francisco's Matt Cain (3-14 at minus-$1.336) ranks last among 243 pitchers who have made at least one start in 2007, Cardinals occupy the 242nd and 241st spots.
The Cards are just 2-13 in Kip Wells' 15 starts this year (minus-$1,247) and 1-11 in Anthony Reyes' 12 starts (minus-$1,155). Joe Kennedy of the A's, is the only other starting pitcher who ends the season's first half with losses of more than $1,000 (3-13 and minus-$1,136).
This year's All Star game starters, Dan Haren (A's) and Jake Peavy (Padres), have both made strong comebacks from last year. The A's went 18-16 (minus-$216) in Haren's starts last year (ranked 236 of 329) and the Padres went 15-17 (minus-$839) in Peavy's starts (321st). This year, the A's are 13-6 (plus-$523) in Haren's starts (ranking him 22 of 243) and the Padres are 13-5 (plus-$377) in Peavy's starts (ranks 36th).
I've always believed that run-differential, like point-differential in the NBA, gives us a great insight into which is the league's best team(s). You may remember that I pointed out before the playoffs, that the Spurs (at plus-8.4 PPG) not the Suns (plus-7.3 PPG) or the Mavs (plus-7.2 PPG), owned the league's best point-differential?
The Tigers (plus-109 runs) own MLB's best run-differential, with the Red Sox (plus-89) and the Padres (plus-78) coming in second an third, respectively. The surprise fourth-place finisher in the Yankees, at plus-70 runs, despite the team's 42-43 record.
However, the Yankees are so consistently overpriced (note the team's 30th-place ranking in the moneyline standings), that while I expect the Yankees to make a run in the second half, it's hard to call for a second-half turnaround against the moneyline.
Two teams I do expect to be moneymakers in the second half are the Giants and the Reds. Despite a 38-48 record, the Giants have outscored their opponents by three runs. As for the Reds, they may own the NL's worst record at 36-52 but they have only been outscored by 36 runs.
Note that the Diamondbacks, at 47-43, have been outscored by 30 runs so far. I'll go out on a limb (not really) and call for the Reds to out=perform the Diamondbacks (in both the regular and moneyline standings) during the season's second half.
:money8:
