Here are a couple of the teams I deem undervalued in today’s games.
Milwaukee Brewers
It isn’t often in which you see a popular that has been dominant at home this undervalued. However, unsustainable trends working against the Brewers in this game have forced the public to temporarily shy away from them. It appears that the public wants nothing to do with Capuano as the Brewers have lost their last eight games in which he starts. Although he has not pitched well during that stretch, the fact that the Brewers scored two runs or less in seven of those eight games has a lot to do with a that “fadeable” trend. However, short term pitcher run support is highly overrated and an actual value creator- especially when dealing with lineups as potent at the Brewers. Capuano’s current downward cycle may be helped out by some extra time off, while may be inflated by having to pitch three straight road games, where he has never been nearly as productive throughout his career. Despite being in the midst of an off season, Capuano has managed to pitch well at home. His currently inflated ERA has a lot to do with capitulating innings, another variable that may lack sustainability, as he has been one of the better southpaws in baseball out of the stretch in recent years. Backed by deep and well rested bullpen should allow the Brewers to prevent the big inning with the earliest of warning signs. His past success against hitters spread around the lineup should also curtail the chances of that big inning. This is also a series in which home field is magnified, as both lineups along with Capuano, or much more potent in their own park.
Francis has also shown some volatility on the mound in recent outings, which is not terribly surprising, as he has been known to slow down during this part of the season. The Brewers have given him problems in past years when he was a less effective pitcher, but still may have sustainability as they are one of the more potent lineups in the league against southpaws. Along with past second half regression, some of Francis’s peripherals also lean towards future regression, along with his negative Delta-R. Some underlying variables that have lead to early season success for Francis should be tested in today’s game, including his low rate of runners scored, as the Brewers possess one of the better slugging teams with runners on. Unlike Capuano, the Rockies bullpen is suspect, and their backend now equally as vulnerable as their front end with the injury to Fuentes.
Milwaukee Brewers
It isn’t often in which you see a popular that has been dominant at home this undervalued. However, unsustainable trends working against the Brewers in this game have forced the public to temporarily shy away from them. It appears that the public wants nothing to do with Capuano as the Brewers have lost their last eight games in which he starts. Although he has not pitched well during that stretch, the fact that the Brewers scored two runs or less in seven of those eight games has a lot to do with a that “fadeable” trend. However, short term pitcher run support is highly overrated and an actual value creator- especially when dealing with lineups as potent at the Brewers. Capuano’s current downward cycle may be helped out by some extra time off, while may be inflated by having to pitch three straight road games, where he has never been nearly as productive throughout his career. Despite being in the midst of an off season, Capuano has managed to pitch well at home. His currently inflated ERA has a lot to do with capitulating innings, another variable that may lack sustainability, as he has been one of the better southpaws in baseball out of the stretch in recent years. Backed by deep and well rested bullpen should allow the Brewers to prevent the big inning with the earliest of warning signs. His past success against hitters spread around the lineup should also curtail the chances of that big inning. This is also a series in which home field is magnified, as both lineups along with Capuano, or much more potent in their own park.
Francis has also shown some volatility on the mound in recent outings, which is not terribly surprising, as he has been known to slow down during this part of the season. The Brewers have given him problems in past years when he was a less effective pitcher, but still may have sustainability as they are one of the more potent lineups in the league against southpaws. Along with past second half regression, some of Francis’s peripherals also lean towards future regression, along with his negative Delta-R. Some underlying variables that have lead to early season success for Francis should be tested in today’s game, including his low rate of runners scored, as the Brewers possess one of the better slugging teams with runners on. Unlike Capuano, the Rockies bullpen is suspect, and their backend now equally as vulnerable as their front end with the injury to Fuentes.