7/13 Analysis

Here are a couple of the teams I deem undervalued in today’s games.

Milwaukee Brewers
It isn’t often in which you see a popular that has been dominant at home this undervalued. However, unsustainable trends working against the Brewers in this game have forced the public to temporarily shy away from them. It appears that the public wants nothing to do with Capuano as the Brewers have lost their last eight games in which he starts. Although he has not pitched well during that stretch, the fact that the Brewers scored two runs or less in seven of those eight games has a lot to do with a that “fadeable” trend. However, short term pitcher run support is highly overrated and an actual value creator- especially when dealing with lineups as potent at the Brewers. Capuano’s current downward cycle may be helped out by some extra time off, while may be inflated by having to pitch three straight road games, where he has never been nearly as productive throughout his career. Despite being in the midst of an off season, Capuano has managed to pitch well at home. His currently inflated ERA has a lot to do with capitulating innings, another variable that may lack sustainability, as he has been one of the better southpaws in baseball out of the stretch in recent years. Backed by deep and well rested bullpen should allow the Brewers to prevent the big inning with the earliest of warning signs. His past success against hitters spread around the lineup should also curtail the chances of that big inning. This is also a series in which home field is magnified, as both lineups along with Capuano, or much more potent in their own park.

Francis has also shown some volatility on the mound in recent outings, which is not terribly surprising, as he has been known to slow down during this part of the season. The Brewers have given him problems in past years when he was a less effective pitcher, but still may have sustainability as they are one of the more potent lineups in the league against southpaws. Along with past second half regression, some of Francis’s peripherals also lean towards future regression, along with his negative Delta-R. Some underlying variables that have lead to early season success for Francis should be tested in today’s game, including his low rate of runners scored, as the Brewers possess one of the better slugging teams with runners on. Unlike Capuano, the Rockies bullpen is suspect, and their backend now equally as vulnerable as their front end with the injury to Fuentes.

Detroit Tigers
Despite putting forth three solid outings in a row against lineups he fundamentally matched up well against, Washburn sub par June may come back to surface in this spot. When pitching for the Angels, his horrible home performances were blamed on not being able to reach a comfort zone on the mound and being a fly ball pitcher whose home park was smaller relative to most of the other parks he pitched in. However, his high disparity of home and away productivity this year may point more to a mental weakness. Underlying fundamental deficiencies this season may be magnified by the Tigers lineup. His low chase rate of off speed pitches does not bode well when facing an aggressive lineup built to hit fastballs, as forcing the Tigers to chase the off speed pitch (like last night) is huge asset for the opposing pitcher. His high walk total and fly ball propensities are also variables not suitable when facing a Tigers lineup that is as effective throughout the lineup and possess as many power hitters as they do. The Tigers might be the most potent lineup in the league on the road and the same case can be made with them against southpaws. Along with an aggregate fundamental mismatch, Washburn will also have to face hitters with past success against him.

Take away the first inning of Bonderman’s starts, and you may have the most dominant right hander in the AL this season. Bonderman’s slider has made him of the harder starters to get hits off of, and allows him to dominate both right handers and left handers, a nice asset to have against a balanced Mariners lineup. Like Washburn, Bonderman’s productivity on the road the last three years actually surpasses his home numbers. This coupled with the Tigers ability to hit as well as they do away from home minimize the home field advantage in this game. Bonderman’s success against the Mariners has been getting progressively better through the years, and should continue as well. Bonderman’s well hit ratio of off speed pitches and high rate of batters chasing such pitches fundamentally puts a free swinging lineup like the Mariners at a huge disadvantage. His ability to challenge hitters and work quick innings makes him able to work deep into games and avoid the Tigers biggest weakness, their bullpen. The past success against some of the Mariners hitters has fundamental sustainability, while Ibanez and Sexon’s success over him do not.

Keep it rollin BG!

Buffett what do you think of the pricing of the Phillies and Kendrick? Fairly priced?

Much appreciated, BG.

roach23 said:

Buffett what do you think of the pricing of the Phillies and Kendrick? Fairly priced?

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Roach,
Still not comfortable handicapping Kendrick's games. I think he may regress from here, as he doesn't have the type of "stuff" to overcome the increased knowledge teams are getting from him each additional start. 10 hits in six innings last time out is evidence that the embedded novelty factor he had over hitters is wearing off. That said, on the surcface, they appear to be slightly undervalued even with a somewhat bearish valuation on Kendrick. Not sure if I could say they warrant a posistion though.
Good luck.

thanks for the reply buffett.

does a 1st start at Coors factor into those 10 hits in his last start?

roach23 said:

thanks for the reply buffett.

does a 1st start at Coors factor into those 10 hits in his last start?

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Possibly. I am sure it didn't help any. Possibly even that nagging groin had an effect on his performance that day. I didn't get to see the game. The fact the he allowed only 13 total bases on 10 hits is somewhat comforting, but a lot of signs point to regression. He posseses a lot of traits of what he is- a young pitcher. He falls behind counts early and pitches from the stretch early in innings. Based on his efficiency stats, this is what I my current conlclusion about him is.

What he did well so far is three things
1.) He has worked efficiently by pitching to contact (pitches per batter)
2.) Pitched well out of the stretch with improved command, allowwing his high WHIP to temporarly not be commensurate with his ERA.
3) Good job getting the ground balls to get out of jams.

What he has not done well, which leads me to believe he will regress once the league catches on)
1.) He falls behind counts early in at bats
2) He can't throw his offspeed pitch for strikes, nor can he get hitters to chase at a high rate.
3.) His well hit ratio on his fastball is at a much higher rate than commensurate to his hits allowed per inning.

What I expect the league to do until he improves off his deficiencies.

Expect the league to be more patient with him (which will increase his pitches per batter) as he falls behind counts early. They will continue to not chase his off speed pitches which he has yet proven capable of throwing for strikes, which will allow them to sit on his fastball, which they have been hitting hard based on his well hit ratio of fastballs thrown(which will sooner or later lead to more hits). Expect hitters to now go with his pitches instead of pulling them (which he has been able to force), which will increase his flyball rate and not allow him to get out of the jams he has been out of the stretch. Without an overpowering fastball, a very low strike out rate, and the inablity to get hitters to chase his offspeed pitches, his runs allowed should increase.

Buffett ... at what prices are the Brewers and the Tigers undervalued? I like the Brewers at no more than -135 and the Tigers at no more than -110. Agree or disagree?

Thanks for posting. Your write-ups are the best. Your effort and expertise are much appreciated.

gymrat

BOL tonight Buffett. Thanks as always.

Thanks Jibba. Best of luck to you as well.

Thanks Gymrat.
Believe it or not, the Brewers are well below my price target of -160 or better (probably the most undervalued team I have seen in a couple of weeks.) I feel a lot of underlying variables are not being fully quantified in the line, and it is not a game spefic mispricing (probably a series mis-pricing) as they are a bit undervalued tommorrow as well. My guess is it has a lot to do with home field advantage not being fully valued, and based on the conventional 20.

As far as the Tigers, I value them at -130, and would bet them at anything better than -117. There are a few teams more undervalued today, and some online shops currerently have them above my price target.


Good luck.

buffettgambler said:

Possibly. I am sure it didn't help any. Possibly even that nagging groin had an effect on his performance that day. I didn't get to see the game. The fact the he allowed only 13 total bases on 10 hits is somewhat comforting, but a lot of signs point to regression. He posseses a lot of traits of what he is- a young pitcher. He falls behind counts early and pitches from the stretch early in innings. Based on his efficiency stats, this is what I my current conlclusion about him is.

What he did well so far is three things
1.) He has worked efficiently by pitching to contact (pitches per batter)
2.) Pitched well out of the stretch with improved command, allowwing his high WHIP to temporarly not be commensurate with his ERA.
3) Good job getting the ground balls to get out of jams.

What he has not done well, which leads me to believe he will regress once the league catches on)
1.) He falls behind counts early in at bats
2) He can't throw his offspeed pitch for strikes, nor can he get hitters to chase at a high rate.
3.) His well hit ratio on his fastball is at a much higher rate than commensurate to his hits allowed per inning.

What I expect the league to do until he improves off his deficiencies.

Expect the league to be more patient with him (which will increase his pitches per batter) as he falls behind counts early. They will continue to not chase his off speed pitches which he has yet proven capable of throwing for strikes, which will allow them to sit on his fastball, which they have been hitting hard based on his well hit ratio of fastballs thrown(which will sooner or later lead to more hits). Expect hitters to now go with his pitches instead of pulling them (which he has been able to force), which will increase his flyball rate and not allow him to get out of the jams he has been out of the stretch. Without an overpowering fastball, a very low strike out rate, and the inablity to get hitters to chase his offspeed pitches, his runs allowed should increase.

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i appreciate you taking the time to go into this much detail. GL on your plays tonight.

Great stuff, as awlays BG.

Quick question, not necessarily just for tonight, but for going forward as well:

What's up with Francisco Cordero? From what I can tell, his breaking ball is coming in flat. Instead of getting the sick drop he had in the beginning of the season, it is curving flat, which gives hitters too much of a chance to get it (even if they are late on the ball). Whereas in the beginning of the season if you were thinking 93 mph fastball, that ball would drop and you'd have no chance. But now, it is just an 87 mph looping curve that is on the same plane as hitters are focusing in on....and even if they were looking for the 93 mph fastball, they can still hit it late....and as a result he's getting hit hard.

I'm a huge Brew Crew fan....but this cat is making me nervous. Can Maddux work with his mechanics? Is he tipping his pitches? Is his arm tired? What do think is going on? And what should we look forward to in the near future?

Thanks BG and BOL tonight!

sds23 said:

Great stuff, as awlays BG.

Quick question, not necessarily just for tonight, but for going forward as well:

What's up with Francisco Cordero? From what I can tell, his breaking ball is coming in flat. Instead of getting the sick drop he had in the beginning of the season, it is curving flat, which gives hitters too much of a chance to get it (even if they are late on the ball). Whereas in the beginning of the season if you were thinking 93 mph fastball, that ball would drop and you'd have no chance. But now, it is just an 87 mph looping curve that is on the same plane as hitters are focusing in on....and even if they were looking for the 93 mph fastball, they can still hit it late....and as a result he's getting hit hard.

I'm a huge Brew Crew fan....but this cat is making me nervous. Can Maddux work with his mechanics? Is he tipping his pitches? Is his arm tired? What do think is going on? And what should we look forward to in the near future?

Thanks BG and BOL tonight!

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Some people think he is simply wearing down with all the save chances he has been getting. But I am not sure how much that has to do with it, as he has been called upon more in past years, and some of his outings in which he looked worn down came following long layoffs. I think it is a culmination of a few things. I think he was pitching a bit over his head early in the season and the NL hitters may have now adjusted to him. Even when on, he was hit hard when contact was made. It just so happened that he was able to have people chase out of the zone against his slider, making his fastball hard that much more effective and hard to catch up on. I think the league has adjusted in the same manner they have with Lidge, not chasing as much, and forcing him to challenge more with the fastball (which he did in years past, which made him struggle against left handed batters, a type of batter he was dominating early in the season). He was able to get out of jams early in the season by striking hitters out. His strike out rate has decreased in propotion to his decrease in chase rate. His decrease in chase rate has forced him to revert back to his Achilles heal of years past, a hanging slider, which happened frequently in recent outings (i.e. the Ramirez home run).
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So, probably a bit of dead arm (not much), simply pitching over his head early in the season, league adjusting, good luck wearing off (his BABIP not commensurate at all to his well hit ratio), and a bit of decrease in confidence has been a result of recent struggles. We have probably seen the best of him this season, but unless he is hiding an injury (which I don’t think is the case) he should rebound from current off-form, and continue to be A-/Bt type closer.

buffettgambler said:

Some people think he is simply wearing down with all the save chances he has been getting. But I am not sure how much that has to do with it, as he has been called upon more in past years, and some of his outings in which he looked worn down came following long layoffs. I think it is a culmination of a few things. I think he was pitching a bit over his head early in the season and the NL hitters may have now adjusted to him. Even when on, he was hit hard when contact was made. It just so happened that he was able to have people chase out of the zone against his slider, making his fastball hard that much more effective and hard to catch up on. I think the league has adjusted in the same manner they have with Lidge, not chasing as much, and forcing him to challenge more with the fastball (which he did in years past, which made him struggle against left handed batters, a type of batter he was dominating early in the season). He was able to get out of jams early in the season by striking hitters out. His strike out rate has decreased in propotion to his decrease in chase rate. His decrease in chase rate has forced him to revert back to his Achilles heal of years past, a hanging slider, which happened frequently in recent outings (i.e. the Ramirez home run).
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So, probably a bit of dead arm (not much), simply pitching over his head early in the season, league adjusting, good luck wearing off (his BABIP not commensurate at all to his well hit ratio), and a bit of decrease in confidence has been a result of recent struggles. We have probably seen the best of him this season, but unless he is hiding an injury (which I don’t think is the case) he should rebound from current off-form, and continue to be A-/Bt type closer.

Click to expand...

Thanks BG! I knew I'd get a better answer from you than I've been able to get searching sports articles and listening to the games locally. Top notch inisght. You don't get analysis like that anywhere else.