Rocco Spacamuro
50* San Francisco
Scott Spreitzer
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
I'm backing the Phillies to gain the weekend sweep over St. Louis. Adam Wainwright keeps bouncing between the pen and the starting rotation. Today, he'll make a start against the hot-hitting Phillies. Philadelphia is 16-8 against the weak NL Central and 38-22 as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, the Cards are now 13-20 against teams with a winning record and 3-11 against the NL East. The defending champs are a mess and there's no light at the end of the tunnel. Look for Adam Eaton to get plenty of support and for the Phillies to cash again.
Play on: Philadelphia
Vegas Experts
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Bosox bats look to be heating up. Boston has gone over the total in six of Josh Beckett's nine home starts. He has a 5.25 LT ERA vs. Toronto. BOSTON is 58-40 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons, 20-10 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season and 13-2 OVER in home games against division opponents this season.
Play on: Over
Ben Burns
(**Blue Chip Total Blowout**)
Indians/Royals Under
Sports Gambling Hotline
Oakland (-125) at MINNESOTA
Today we like the Athletics to end their 6-game losing streak as Dan Haren takes the mound against Minnesota and Boof Bonser.
Bonser is 0-4 over his last 5 starts, and has lost his last 3 decisions, giving up 12 runs in his last 18 innings of work. We expect the A's to get some offense cranking against the struggling Bonser this aftternoon.
Haren is a rock-solid 10-3 for the year with an ERA of only 2.30, and last season in his last pair of starts against the Twins, he worked 14 scoreless frames of ball for a 1-0 mark.
If Oakland can't win today minus the small road chalk, they may never win again!
Play on the A's.
3? OAKLAND
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego (+150) at ARIZONA
San Diego has dropped the first two games of this series,including blowing a 4-0 lead Saturday to lose 5-4. This team has much better pitching and plays too well on the road to get swept by the D'Backs.
On the hill today is Justiin Germano (5-3, 3.90 ERA) for the Padres. He is 3-1 on the road with a 2.70 ERA and 3-1 in day games with a 1.75 ERA. He was solid before the break except for his last two starts. He had delivered seven of eight starts of allowing three runs or less before getting hit hard his final two.
Arizona's Brandon Webb (8-6, 3.37 ERA) is on the mound and he is just 3-3 at home this season. He gave up nine runs over 13 innings in his last two starts before the break, both losses. He's faced the Padres twice already this season and allowed two runs in both outings.
Germano established himself as a legitimate starter for San Diego earlier this season and look for him to regain some of that form today. This will be a low-scoring affair but the Padres should get the narrow victory.
2? SAN DIEGO
Karl Garrett
Los Angeles at SAN FRANCISCO (-125)
Gotta look for the Giants to avoid the sweep today at home against the Dodgers.
Los Angeles is sending Brett Tomko to the mound, and Tomko's last start comes back at the end of May, as the righty sports a bad 1-5 record for the season with a sky-high ERA of 5.95.
Countering is the Giants' stopper Noah Lowry, as Lowry has been money in the bank at home this year going 7-1 with an ERA just over 2. Lowry's last 3 starts have all been wins, as he has allowed just 3 earned runs over his last 19 innings of work.
The Dodgers have yet to lose at game at San Francisco this season, going 6-0, but today they will take it on the chin as Lowry remains tough as nails at home.
2? SAN FRANCISCO
Chuck Franklin
Houston at CHICAGO CUBS (-125)
The Cubs are playing good baseball right now, especially in Chicago. They have won six of their last seven home games, and are looking to pull off the sweep over the Astros with another win today. Chicago is sending to the mound Jason Marquis, who has a winning record on the season and a winning career record vs. Houston. The Cubs have been winners in seven of his last eight home starts.
The Astros have been a disappointment this season. They have won only six of their last 26 road games, and are 0-4 in their last four outings as a dog. I expect to see another road loss for them today, and not just because the Cubs are fired up, confident, and a more talented team in general. Another major factor is that Houston is starting Wandy Rodriguez, who has a losing record on the season and a losing career record against the Cubs. The Astros have been losers in nine of his last 11 road starts. Need I say more? Take the Cubs at home to complete the sweep against these unimpressive Astros.
3? CUBS
Drew Gordon
Oakland at MINNESOTA (+105)
A's have lost 6 straight, playing pathetic baseball along the way. Most in the public believe Dan Haren is going to end the A's losing streak, but I couldn't diagree more for several reasons:
Dan Haren hasn't been nearly as dominant of late, going 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts. He's allowed 3 runs apiece in each of his last 5 starts, slowly but surely watching his ERA jump.
The Athletics offense couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a guided missile. Guys, Oakland is batting .193 as a team over their last 10 games! Good news for the Twins Bosner, who's coming off three straight losses.
Bosner gets just what the doctor ordered, facing an offense struggling as badly as Oakland is right now. Despite the losses, his numbers are errily similar to Haren's over their last 3 starts. Look for Bosner to get back to his winning ways this afternoon.
Take Minnesota behind Bosner over Oakland in this MLB match up.
2? MINNESOTA
Dave Cokin
Take "(970) BAL Orioles"
The White Sox should start doing better than they have to this point vs. lefties, as Paul Konerko has heated up and Jermaine Dye is finally showing signs of breaking out. Jose Contreras has had a pretty bad year, but if he can just be adequate here he'll be in good position to garner a win. Baltimore rookie Garrett Olson is a decent prospect, but I'm not sold that he's ready for this level just yet. The White Sox are my Sunday play.
Jim Feist
Take "Under"
Justin Verlander has been exceptional this year for the Tigers. Not only did he toss a no-hitter back on June 12th versus Milwaukee, but the righthander has reeled off 10 wins against just three losses. Verlander has been just as impressive on the road, going 5-1 with a 2.56 era. In his one start against the Mariners this season, Justin gave up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 7-3 win. Jeff Weaver has finally got his act together. Weaver's record is a ugly 2-6 with a 6.34 era. However, in his last three starts Weaver has allowed a total of three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. Looks like a very good pitcher duel here on Sunday and we'll go with the UNDER!!!
Brian Gabrielle
Bonus Play: Proposition 1 Special vs Proposition 2 Special
At this week’s John Deere Classic, take Zach Johnson (14-1), 1/6 unit in the outright: Illinois is as close to Iowa as Johnson is going to get this year on Tour, geographically. The PGA Championship is in Oklahoma, which is two states away from Illinois by stretch, but the Memorial in Ohio was closer in terms of mileage. Point is, Johnson’s done real well this year with two wins. He’s coming off a MC at The Travelers but he’s the best short bet this week. Take Anthony Kim (25-1), 1/6 unit: Four top-10s and nine top-25s, this guy’s having what will be a breakout year if he can win. A birdie machine, he just needs to make more putts. Take Carl Pettersson (33-1), 1/6 unit: He got off to a slow start but he’s coming off T17 and T15 at the U.S. Open and Travelers, respectively.Pettersson’s sort of the definition of workmanlike, but he’s managed a win in each of the last two years.
Cappersaccess
(Sun) MLB Yankees B'Rays 180 D'Rays
(Sun) MLB Angels Rangers 210 Angels
(Sun) MLB Phillies Cardinals 125 Phillies
Jeff Alexander
Bonus Play: San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
1 Unit on Arizona -152 (listing Germano and Webb) The Padres are just 2-11 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 11-2 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. With the way Germano has struggled of late, we have to side with Webb and the D-Backs here considering the evidence.
Bill Young
Bonus Play: Washington Nationals vs Florida Marlins
1* on Florida -161 (List Olsen) Jason Simontacchi will get lit up today when he faces this dangerous Florida line-up. Simontacchi is 6-6 with a 6.11 ERA on the season and Florida hitters are drooling over the opportunity to face this guy. The Marlins are 4-1 in Scott Olsen's last 5 home starts. The Marlins are 9-4 in Olsen's last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Florida hasn’t been the best of teams at home, but they are far good enough to surpass the Nationals in this contest. The Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 home meetings with Washington. Take Florida
Lou Diamondz
100 Units Brewers -135
ROCKY ATKINSON / ROCKETMAN SPORTS
NASCAR
#5 Kyle Busch vs #99 Carl Edwards 4:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* #5 Kyle Busch -125
Kyle Busch has 1 Top 5 finish and 1 Top 10 finish in his 2 races in Chicago. He has finished of 14th and 3rd here in Chicago and an average finish of 8.5. Edwards has an average finish of 29.5 here in Chicago. He finished 39th and 20th in his 2 races here. We'll play Kyle Busch to finish ahead of Carl Edwards for 3 units! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
__________________
Vernon Croy
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants (MLB)
Jul 15, 2007 4:05 PM EDT
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
1 Unit - Take L.A. Dodgers +115, This pick falls into one of my MLB systems and the Dodgers are hitting .336 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging over 5.7 rpg. The Dodgers have hit lefties very well this season and they are 16-8 against them.
__________________
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Chicago Cubs (Marquis) -130** over Houston (Rodriquez)
San Francisco (Lowry) -120* over L.A.Dodgers (Tomko)
Philadelphia (Eaton) / St. Louis (Wainwright) OVER 10*
__________________
VEGAS EXPERTS Tip Of The Day
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Sunday, July 15th, 2:05 P.M. EDT
Bosox bats look to be heating up. Boston has gone over the total in six of Josh Beckett's nine home starts. He has a 5.25 LT ERA vs. Toronto. BOSTON is 58-40 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons, 20-10 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season and 13-2 OVER in home games against division opponents this season.
Play on: Over
__________________
Sunday HorseRacing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (5th) Desirabledancer, 5-1
(6th) Jazzy Gallop, 10-1
Belmont Park (1st) Three Shots, 5-1
(2nd) Fancy Fusaichi, 3-1
Calder Race Course (1st) Timely Surprise, 4-1
(2nd) Twiceasbeautiful, 3-1
Canterbury Park (7th) Castor Troy (Ire), 5-1
(8th) Jagan, 5-1
Charles Town (8th) Don't Wonder, 6-1
(10th) A Plus Student, 10-1
Colonial Downs (4th) Stormin Delight, 10-1
(8th) Bold Turn, 10-1
Delaware Park (4th) Mlle Ballerina, 7-2
(7th) All Smiles, 8-1
Ellis Park (4th) Patriot Game, 7-2
(11th) Mysius (Arg), 3-1
Emerald Downs (2nd) Cya Liberty, 7-2
(10th) The Great Question, 3-1
Finger Lakes (6th) Rapid Rickey, 7-2
(9th) Free Romance, 8-1
Fort Erie (6th) Chemistry Class, 7-2
(9th) Sybelle Katheria, 8-1
Hastings Park (3rd) Sharp Chevron, 5-1
(6th) Cabron, 3-1
Hollywood Park (10th) Holly's Gold, 7-2
(11th) Stop the Humor, 6-1
Lone Star Park (6th) My Parade, 9-2
(10th) Snifters Spirit, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (4th) Stormy But Crafty, 9-2
(5th) Shine True, 8-1
Monmouth Park (2nd) Matter of Style, 7-2
(4th) Keep A Knockin, 5-1
Mountaineer (4th) Tiger's Angel, 9-2
(9th) Bavarian Prince, 4-1
Northlands (3rd) Bear Nobility, 7-2
(8th) Takethefifth, 8-1
Philadelphia Park (7th) Dirty Dawg, 7-2
(8th) Buck Trout's Niece, 8-1
River Downs (10th) Shiny Dancer, 7-2
(13th) My Man Matt, 5-1
Suffolk Downs (3rd) River Maam, 7-2
(8th) Top Spot, 6-1
Thistledown (7th) Summer Gulch, 6-1
(11th) War Chest, 3-1
Woodbine (3rd) Minstrel Miss, 8-1
(5th) Lemon Twins, 4-1
DELAWARE H. (G2), 11TH-DEL, $1,000,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/4M, 5:44 P.M. EDT, 7-15
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 PEAK MARIA'S WAY GORHAM MICHAEL E ROCCO J 115
2 LILA PAIGE LEVINE BRUCE ALVARADO R JR 113
3 ASI SIEMPRE BIANCONE PATRICK L PRADO E S 121
4 UNBRIDLED BELLE PLETCHER TODD A DOMINGUEZ R A 114
5 ICE COOL KITTY DUTROW RICHARD E LANERIE C J 114
6 INDIAN VALE PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 120
7 PROMENADE GIRL MURRAY LAWRENCE E ROSE J 117
8 DAYTIME PROMISE CONTESSA GARY C PINO M G 112
9 TAKE A CHECK SMALL RICHARD W NO RIDER 111
PEAK MARIA'S WAY (Pyramid Peak) doesn't have quite the credentials as some of her rivals in Sunday's rich $1 million Delaware H. (G2), but the Michael Gorham-trained miss has winning experience over the track as well as the numbers to get the job done in the 1 1/4-mile event. The four-year-old filly owns three stakes victories, most recently taking the Obeah S. going nine furlongs at Delaware Park. That wasn't the first Delaware victory for the lass, as she also scored in last year's Ghost and Goblins S. and St. Georges S. over the track. Peak Maria's Way earned a career-best 104 BRIS Speed rating as well as a 102 BRIS E2 Pace figure last time out, and could use her experience to add a first graded win to her record. Joseph Rocco returns to the saddle.
INDIAN VALE (A.P. Indy) and ASI SIEMPRE (El Prado [Ire]) are the likely favorites in this event, and we're tabbing the former to be best of the rest. The Todd Pletcher-trained five-year-old began the year with a 5 1/2-length win in the Next Move H. (G3), and was fourth by just 2 1/2 lengths over a sloppy, sealed track at Churchill in the Louisville Breeders' Cup S. (G2) next out. She easily scored in the Fleur de Lis H. (G2) most recently, garnering a 104 Speed rating, and will try to lead this one all the way home under John Velazquez.
Asi Siempre, a Grade 1 winner from last year, just missed when second by a head in the Louisville Breeders' Cup and then filled that same spot in the Fleur de Lis behind Indian Vale. The Patrick Biancone charge has recorded her two biggest wins to date on the Polytrack at Keeneland, but has also posted some nice placings on the dirt. Asi Siempre will in the mix late, but we're willing to take a stand against and just tab for the exotics under Edgar Prado.
UNBRIDLED BELLE (Broken Vow) was second in the Obeah in her 2007 bow, and ended her sophomore campaign with two well-beaten fourths in the Gazelle S. (G1) and Alabama S. (G1). The uncoupled Pletcher trainee could be much more competitive against these rivals, especially while making her second start of the year. The dark bay lass should be included in the exotics at a price. Ramon Dominguez has the call.
PROMENADE GIRL (Carson City) has run third in the Ogden Phipps H. (G1) and Monmouth Beach S. so far this year, and will have to run back to her Molly Pitcher Breeders' Cup S. (G2) win from last season to factor in the top three here. The Lawrence Murray-trained five-year-old owns a win at Delaware, and could show more of her 2006 form in this spot. She could grab a share with Jeremy Rose aboard. ICE COOL KITTY (Tomorrows Cat) has won her last three by easy margins in front-running fashion, but doesn't appear fast enough to keep up with Indian Vale in this one. She's still likely to be close to the pace early and could hang around for a check late.
LILA PAIGE (Cryptoclearance) was claimed three back and might not be up to this class level just yet. We'll let her beat us. DAYTIME PROMISE (Five Star Day) and TAKE A CHECK (Touch Gold) were well beaten in their last ones and probably won't factor here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-PEAK MARIA'S WAY
2nd-INDIAN VALE
3rd-ASI SIEMPRE
BARBARO S. (G3), 10TH-DEL, $300,000, 3YO, 1 1/16M, 5:13 P.M. EDT, 7-15
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 KING OF THE ROXY PLETCHER TODD A DOMINGUEZ R A 116
2 REPTILIAN SMARTS RITVO TIMOTHY CASTELLANO A JR 116
3 HAL'S MY HOPE ROSE BARRY R PINO M G 118
4 POINT BLAKE SLIVKA SANDRA NO RIDER 116
5 PHONE HOME DUTROW ANTHONY W VELAZQUEZ J R 116
6 XCHANGER SHUMAN MARK PRADO E S 118
7 LONGLEY MOTION H GRAHAM ROSE J 116
On the Delaware H. (G2) undercard, a field of seven sophomores will go 1 1/16 miles in the $300,000 Barbaro S. (G3) on Delaware Park's dirt. KING OF THE ROXY (Littleexpectations) and XCHANGER (Exchange Rate) are the two more notable runners in the renamed Leonard Richards, but both are inconsistent in their performances and we'll try to beat them with LONGLEY (Seeking the Gold).
The Graham Motion-trained bay has really stepped forward lately, taking an allowance/optional claimer at Pimlico, before shipping to Delaware to capture an allowance and the Floor Show S. by a combined 13 3/4 lengths. Longley earned 101 BRIS Speed and 106 BRIS Late Pace figures for his initial stakes win, and loves this distance (4-3-0-0). He's continued to work well in preparation for his second try against graded rivals, and appears poised to make it four in a row under Jeremy Rose.
Xchanger eventually ran eighth in the Preakness S. (G1) after leading for the first half and could take this field from gate-to-wire under Edgar Prado. The Mark Shuman charge utilized front-running tactics when taking the Federico Tesio S. prior to his try in the second jewel of the Triple Crown, earning a 102 Speed rating. He's been taking on some of the best in his division so far this year, and could use this slight drop in class to return to the winner's circle.
The Todd Pletcher-trained King of the Roxy will be making just his fourth start of the year in this spot. The dark bay colt captured his sophomore debut in the Hutcheson S. (G2), then was second by a half-length in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He was well back in sixth last out when trying the Preakness, but did earn his best Speed rating to date (102) and is eligible to move forward off that one while coming off a break. Ramon Dominguez has the call aboard the 2-1 morning-line favorite.
POINT BLAKE's (Quiet American) status in this race is somewhat in question considering he doesn't have a rider listed. If the Sandra Slivka charge runs, he could make a place for himself in the top three. The bay colt has captured two of his past three starts at Delaware, running second in the Floor Show in his other one, and has worked bullets over the track in advance of this target. HAL'S MY HOPE (Halo's Image) has recorded two wins this year, including his first black-type score in the Unbridled S. while going this distance. He was fourth most recently in the Peter Pan S. (G2) and has been racking up some nice numbers in his past four starts. The dark bay three-year-old could challenge in the exotics.
PHONE HOME (Phone Trick) owns just one start this year, finishing second in a June 8 allowance/optional claimer at Belmont, and might need another race before trying this type of company. REPTILIAN SMARTS (Include) hasn't been able to handle stakes competition in his past two and we don't think he'll turn that form around here. We'll let the bay beat us.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-LONGLEY
2nd-XCHANGER
3rd-KING OF THE ROXY
BOWLING GREEN H. (G2), 8TH-BEL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, 1 3/8MT, 4:45 P.M. EDT, 7-15
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 TRIPPI'S STORM HOUGH STANLEY M CASTELLANO J J 114
2 DREADNAUGHT VOSS THOMAS H VELASQUEZ CORNE 116
3 SUNRIVER PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 116
4 BARASTRAIGHT (GB) RIBAUDO ROBERT J JARA FERNANDO 114
5 SHAKIS (IRE) MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P GARCIA A 117
6 FISHY ADVICE DONK DAVID COA E M 117
7 SILVER WHISTLE MOTT WILLIAM I DESORMEAUX K J 115
8 INTERPATATION BARBARA ROBERT HILL C 114
Eight turf marathoners are entered to contest Sunday's Bowling Green H. (G2) at Belmont Park. Although the Todd Pletcher-trained SUNRIVER (Saint Ballado) has raced just once on the green, we came away from that effort quite impressed and will tab him as our top choice in here. The dark bay showed class as a three-year-old last year, taking the Peter Pan S. (G2) and placing in the Florida Derby (G1) and Belmont S. (G1), and the Kentucky-bred could improve in his four-year-old season. The well-bred colt possesses excellent tactical speed, is bred to handle the 1 3/8-mile distance and has trained well in advance of this. Garrett Gomez will ride.
SHAKIS (Ire) (Machiavellian), the likely favorite in here, was a big third in the recent Manhattan H. (G1) and is an obvious win contender for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. The seven-year-old has kept decent company throughout his racing career but has yet to earn a stakes win, a trend that sways us from keeping this one in the top spot. A top effort under Alan Garcia will certainly challenge the whole group.
SILVER WHISTLE (Alphabet Soup) owns two wins from four tries over this course and fits the bill of one who could complete some exotics at a square price. The Bill Mott charge was no match for Sunriver last out, but should benefit from the added ground and additional pace presence that this one offers. A Grade 3 hero at 12 furlongs, Silver Whistle should get a fair stalking trip before putting in his late push. Kent Desormeaux has the assignment.
Multiple Grade 2 winner DREADNAUGHT (Lac Ouimet) has visited the winner's circle just once since 2005, but the hard-knocking gelding often runs well enough to be in contention late. The seven-year-old bay was a close second in the Sussex S. last out in a prep for this, and should appreciate the return to marathon racing after traveling just 1 1/16 miles last try. We won't get our hopes up that this Tom Voss trainee will win, but we certainly expect him to be in the mix beneath Cornelio Velasquez.
FISHY ADVICE (Woodman) had a nice tune-up for this, a score in the Battlefield S., and has been first or second in his past seven consecutive outings for conditioner David Donk. The five-year-old chestnut is stakes tested and owns a good deal of tactical speed, but has never run this far and we're not sure how the Kentucky-bred will handle the trip. Fishy Advice will be piloted by Eibar Coa and is a strong exotics player with his best.
INTERPATATION (Langfuhr) is a consistent late runner but lacks the quality of much of this field and is best kept on the bottom of the exotics. Trained by Robert Barbara, the gelded five-year-old has won or placed in four of six local starts, and should peak in his third start off the brief freshening, but his best is probably not up to par with the best of those chosen above him. Channing Hill will guide the dark bay from the outside post.
TRIPPI'S STORM (Trippi) has improved nicely since transferring to grass racing four starts back for trainer Stanley Hough. The Florida-bred gelding has put in two big efforts versus cheaper over this lawn and could get a piece with a career-topping effort. Javier Castellano will ride the likely pacesetter, who breaks from the rail.
BARASTRAIGHT (GB) (Barathea [Ire]) is a Group 3 hero in his native France but has failed to cross the wire first in five subsequent starts since last April. The ridgling was an unenthusiastic fourth in a recent allowance test, and nothing from that effort leads us to believe that the chestnut will make an impact in here. Fernando Jara will pilot the four-year-old.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-SUNRIVER
2nd-SHAKIS (Ire)
3rd-SILVER WHISTLE
SUNSET H. (G2), 9TH-HOL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/2MT, 5:20 P.M. PDT, 7-15
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 BRIGHT PREDICTION MENDOZA JESUS TALAMO JOSEPH 110
2 SPRING HOUSE CANANI JULIO C VALDIVIA J JR 116
3 STORMIN AWAY MULLINS JEFF GARCIA MARTIN 119
4 FITZ FLAG (ARG) REVIRIEGO JUAN ALMEIDA G F 114
5 RUSH RUSH MACHOWSKY MICHAEL BAZE M C 112
6 RUNAWAY DANCER HENDRICKS DAN L SOLIS A 117
Sunday's $150,000 Sunset H. (G2) is the closing-day feature at Hollywood Park, with racing shifting to Del Mar on Wednesday, and it's difficult to get excited about the six horses assembled for the 1 1/2-mile turf event. STORMIN AWAY (Skip Away) will enter the event in peak form, winning three of his last four starts, and the Jeff Mullins-trained gelding rates top billing.
A three-time stakes hero, Stormin Away captured the 14-furlong Round Table H. at Hollywood last out, closing with a rush in deep stretch to win by three parts of a length, and he's three-for-six over the course. The gray rated that afternoon, but Stormin Away possesses good tactical speed, winning an allowance three starts back while racing on the front end. With little speed in this field, jockey Martin Garcia will likely have Stormin Away on or very close to the early lead.
FITZ FLAG (Arg) (Flag Down) is a win contender. He's recorded a pair of decent fourth-place finishes against better company in his last two outings and missed by only 1 3/4 lengths when third in the San Juan Capistrano Invitational H. (G2) two starts back. Trained by Juan Reviriego, Fitz Flag is a threat to earn his first U.S. stakes win in the Sunset.
Multiple Grade 3 victor RUNAWAY DANCER (Runaway Groom) finished second in the Hollywood Turf Cup (G1) last December and exits a decent third in the Round Table. The Dan Hendricks charge definitely fits well at this level, and the gray gelding loves a route of ground. The confirmed closer could leave himself too much to do, but we won't exclude him from the top three.
SPRING HOUSE (Chester House) just missed in the Round Table, setting most of the pace in his first start for conditioner Julio Canani, and may continue to show more in his second start in California. The stakes-winning gelding had earned triple-digit BRIS Late Pace numbers in his seven efforts prior to the Round Table (75), and we wouldn't be surprised to see new jockey Jose Valdivia Jr. attempt to save a little more for the finish.
BRIGHT PREDICTION (Dance Brightly) was claimed for $10,000 two starts back. The Jesus Mendoza trainee is one-for-one over the course, tempting us to give him a chance in this less-than-stellar field, but we can't pull the trigger. RUSH RUSH (More Than Ready) will be making his stakes debut. A three-length winner over entry-level allowance/optional claiming rivals most recently on May 12, the four-year-old gelding will be tested for class and distance.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-STORMIN AWAY
2nd-FITZ FLAG (Arg)
3rd-RUNAWAY DANCER
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Sunday, July 15
RACE ONE
A small, but competitive field in the Robert K. Kerlan Handicap kicks off an 11-race closing day card. BONFANTE, winner of the Grade 3 San Simeon Handicap this winter at Santa Anita, holds a slight class edge. Though he was off the board in the June 9 Ack Ack Handicap, Bonfante likely needed the race and the distance (7 1-2 furlongs) may have been slightly out of his range. SCOTTSBLUFF is two for four over this course, including a recent score in the Flame Thrower Stakes. He's got a great tracking style and his connections (Jeff Mullins and Clinton Potts) have been on a roll. ONE UNION was lapped on SCOTTSBLUFF in the Flame Thrower, but must overcome today's rail draw.
RACE TWO
WARREN'S PLAYER was eliminated at the start in her debut June 14. She broke last in a 12-horse field, then was forced to steady as she attempted to get back into the race. She won't have nearly as much traffic trouble in this short field. BORDER PROBLEMS was also off a tad slowly in her premier and never recovered. She's draws well here and gets a rider upgrade to Joe Talamo. FILLED WITH HOPE battled through some slow splits in an improved effort. She's got a look in a race without much substance.
RACE THREE
At this class level, consistency is usually lacking. DIXIE DIXIE DIXIE handled a starter allowance field in May, then trailed when moved way up in class. Dropping in for $25,000 and being reunited with Talamo should be enough to take this. KISSIN PARTY seems to be on a downslide for Mike Mitchell, but retains the services of leading rider Michael Baze. This is the lowest level at which she's competed. SWISS ROSE was a good second against similar one race back, but had no excuses last time out.
RACE FOUR
In his debut, WISE MANDATE had the misfortune of hooking Sea of Pleasure in a track-record breaking race and had to settle for second. 'MANDATE's works have been a bit up and down since, but the talent is there. GOTHAM DEVIL is by a sire (Gotham City) who has burst on the scene with a couple of early victories. He worked a crisp half-mile from the gate in 47 1/5 July 1. PUBLIC IMAGE hails from a barn (Cliff Sise) that does exceptionally well with first time starters. Underrated rider Isaias Enriquez ensures a fair price.
RACE FIVE
In a close call, we'll give the edge to WIZZEN MIZZEN, who was visually impressive breaking her maiden at this trip June 22. 'MIZZEN is certainly bred for the turf and showed it the first time she stepped on the sod. LADY MATILDA ran great off the bench and is clearly the one to beat, but the short price discourages a wager. MACADAMIA has been hanging a bit going long so is shortened up today by Paulo Lobo. She's only won once in 11 tries, but has been in the money five times.
RACE SIX
NORWAY HOUSE is fresh from a dominating victory against slightly softer and should easily be able to handle the one-level class rise for Mullins. PATRIOTIC FLAME returned from a long layoff, took a giant class drop, and was re-claimed by Mike Mitchell. The fact that he steps up in class is a good sign. SAMWISE is an interesting longshot possibility. Off slowly, as usual, SAMWISE made a nice mid-race move before tiring in deep stretch. On his best day, he's good enough to be a factor.
RACE SEVEN
THE FIVE J'S looks like another timely claim by Mullins. He carved out some swift fractions last time and just failed to hold off Claiming Horse of the Meeting contender Deputy Lad. When the trainer change (Knapp to Mullins) is factored in, THE FIVE J's looks like a solid bet. AGENT HANRATTY takes a step down after flattening out sprinting. He's defeated better as late as March. MEGABYTE weakened after a seven-week rest, but should be fitter this time around. He'll be trying to capture his seventh career win.
RACE EIGHT
ENTER ANON ran out of his mind in taking his last two starts. If he repeats either of those races he'll win this, however he was claimed by a trainer who hasn't won a race this meet. WINNING TACTICS ran like a short horse in his comeback and should improve off the race. Trainer Marty Jones has clicked with 14 percent with his second time off a layoff runners. TOLNAI won a pair of races in his native Argentina. He looks to have some talent, but often times South Americans need a race or two to acclimate.
RACE NINE
STORMIN AWAY just keeps getting better and better. He won three of his last four starts while displaying the ability to relax early, something he wasn't able to do earlier in his career. His most recent victory in the demanding Round Table Handicap was arguably his best race yet. RUNAWAY DANCER dropped too far back in the Round Table and was given too much to do. Expect the veteran gelding to be much closer to the pace today. SPRING HOUSE couldn't quite hold off STORMIN AWAY after compiling a big early lead. That effort was his first for Julio Canani and this shorter trip works in his favor.
RACE TEN
DEVONS SUCCESS has blazing speed, but has had to deal with many infirmities during a brief nine-race career. Today, she gets her best opportunity to shake loose from the outside post and might get brave on the lead. KELLY CARSON was sharp earlier in the year but seems to have lost her edge this meeting. She was an okay second at this level one race back. HOLLY'S GOLD is a must use in the trifecta. The recent Dominic Farma claim has been first, second, or third in 13 of 16 tries.
RACE ELEVEN
The curtain comes down on the 2007 meet with a real turf puzzle for maiden special weights. STOP THE HUMOR is the selection, but without much confidence. The Craig Lewis trainee has been competitive in recent sprints and has a running style that is conducive to two turns. MUSIC AND MAGIC was burned up pressing the pace against similar in May. Though she's picking up 10 pounds after a brief freshening, she gets a stronger rider today. POULE D'EAU raced evenly in her first attempt at this distance. Espinoza stays with her and she's a fit with these.
Best Bet-NORWAY HOUSE (6)
__________________
Belmont Park
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Lahudood (3rd race)
First Race
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1. Fort Carillon 2. Stashed Away 3. Pecunia
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FORT CARILLON has had only one opportunity to run against restricted claimers, when four wide in a sloppy off-the-turf race at Aqueduct in first start off a long layoff; either race on firm turf at this meet vs. multiple winners stacks up well with this easier bunch. STASHED AWAY returns for first start at 5, after being blanked in 11 allowance attempts in Florida in 2006; several of those efforts were good enough to contend with the local non-winners of two claimers. PECUNIA steps into a very realistic spot following decisive maiden triumph from off the pace; versatile enough to go to the front if no one else wants the early lead.
Second Race
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1. Sophie's Salad 2. Come Fly Away 3. Fancy Fusaichi
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SOPHIE'S SALAD impressed in debut at Saratoga last year, rallying six wide to miss by less than a length, and something clearly went awry when she stopped abruptly second out; been working like clockwork upstate for new trainer. COME FLY AWAY was a good-figure second after setting the pace first time on turf, then regressed sharply when outsprinted for the early lead; capable of rebounding quickly. FANCY FUSAICHI also has to bounce back, after an encouraging second in debut behind allowance repeater Partida, followed by a 17-point bounce; has license to like the turf, as does the newly blinkered and regally bred APACHE PLUME.
Third Race
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1. Lahudood 2. Sweet Way 3. Milk Town
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LAHUDOOD was odds-on for U.S. debut, but hooked another classy import in Wingspan in that 1 1/4- mile allowance, and was nipped through a rip-roaring last half-mile in 46.60 seconds; twice second in Group 2s in France, towers over these. SWEET WAY raced twice on turf in California, earning identical Beyers while beaten a length or so at 7-5; very nice breeze on Saratoga turf 11 days ago after shipping to New York. MILK TOWN outfinished DOUBLE DINGHY DAY and narrowly missed the win when returned from three-month layoff; consistent filly is eligible to improve second time on grass.
Fourth Race
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1. Dana Dew 2. Snare 3. Bet the Diva
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DANA DEW debuts for Rick Dutrow Jr., who saddled first-out juvenile winners By the Light ($15.00) and Dazzling Derek ($4.90) on Wednesday & Thursday, also with Rafael Bejarano up; if good things indeed come in threes, this $280K purchase is assumed ready to roll. SNARE is by an excellent debut sire, and comes off an improved workout last week; trainer dominated the 2-year-old racing at the just-concluded Churchill Downs' meet. BET THE DIVA finished gamely to overtake SAND AND SONG when both were beaten by a 3-2 second-time starter; first-crop sire Posse has produced some precocious ones already.
Fifth Race
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1. Stratonic 2. Grosvenor Square 3. Solewisher
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STRATONIC recorded Beyers in the 80s on a handful of different turf courses during extended stretch from last September through May, so it may be wise to give him benefit of the doubt for one subpar performance last out; allowance winner at 18-1 this course & distance last fall with Eibar Coa. GROSVENOR SQUARE returns to restricted claiming ranks for first time since beating non-winners of two stock here last fall; useful tightener in comeback chasing Three in the Bag's easy pace. It took SOLEWISHER six tries, but he got through non-winners of two condition despite a wide trip on this course earlier at the meet; been training right along since then at Monmouth, has history of stringing good races together.
Sixth Race
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1. Indian War Dance 2. Fit Faze 3. Hi Time Scott
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INDIAN WAR DANCE has been in raging form winning four of five starts by open lengths since returning from a freshening, the lone defeat coming when outsprinted for the early lead; he's quick enough to get the top in this starter 'cap, and may go to 7 for 7 at a mile. FIT FAZE is also well suited to the distance, and has climbed back up the ladder since mid-winter; deep closer has maintained top form for months, but gets little respect at the windows. HI TIME SCOTT is an intriguing new face, and one who boasts .600 batting average at a mile; put together several big-figure races last fall, appears set to improve off pair of comeback sprints.
Seventh Race
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1. Miss Blarney Stone 2. Sweet Corredor 3. Nedjma
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MISS BLARNEY STONE and SWEET CORREDOR were toward the rear of field in their June 17 meeting, and rallied to finish half-length apart after some traffic through sharp final quarter. That was the first start of the year and first in U.S. for Miss Blarney Stone, so it may be noteworthy she imroved markedly in second start of 2006. Sweet Corredor has come back from long absence to run her two best races at this meet, and looms main obstacle to the choice again. NEDJMA was nine miles behind after stumbling at start of initial allowance, and was rapidly gaining through deep stretch; two deep-closing efforts at 1 1/8 miles suggest she may have lots to do through final stages of this shorter race.
Eighth Race
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1. Shakis 2. Sunriver 3. Fishy Advice
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The late-blooming SHAKIS has flourished on Lasix in two U.S. starts, flying home through a 34-second last three-eighths to beat INTERPATATION on May 25, and returning on short rest to miss in a blanket finish in the Manhattan to two multiple Grade 1 winners; has had five weeks' spacing to this, main question is whether he can kick home as strongly at 1 3/8 miles. As discouraging as SUNRIVER's race in the Schaeffer was at Pimlico behind Flashy Bull, that's how promising his first start on turf was, when he rated kindly and ran away from graded stakes winner SILVER WHISTLE in the stretch; not going to catch anyone by surprise this time, but Peter Pan win shows he needn't lead early to be effective. FISHY ADVICE comes off a course-record win at Monmouth, and is just a neck and a head shy of a seven-race win streak dating back to November of 2005; handles any pace scenario, and has handled DREADNAUGHT on a couple of occasions in the past - though not at this trip.
Ninth Race
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1. Kats Golden Ways 2. Heavenly Anna 3. Karakorum Elektra
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KATS GOLDEN WAYS was going welll too late in sprint return, then raced in traffic and steadied in the stretch second time back; should be set now. HEAVENLY ANNA decisioned the top pick when second best to even-money Jesse's Justice under these conditions; last win came the last time Bejarano was aboard last summer. KARAKORUM ELEKTRA figures close with the top pair based on maiden win first time on the grass; may revert to rating tactics after weakening on the front-end in first allowance.
__________________
Calder
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
3 SHOW ME MONEY is stepping up with blinkers added after recovering from a slow start to finish second vs. $12.5K maidens on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 2 CONCEDE has his maiden tag sliced in half, and races with blinkers, after failing to fire in a 'key' $32K maiden test that produced three next-out winners. 5 DON RAFA, who finds an ideal spot to start his career, may have signaled his intentions with a solid 3-furlong gate work on July 12.
3-2-5
Race 2 -
1 TWICEASBEAUTIFUL will face winners after a visually impressive maiden turf victory at the distance in which she dueled early and drew away late. 4 CAJULENA, a 6-time winner, is back on the turf after following a second place finish at this level on the grass with a good third place showing vs. similar on the main track. 3 AQUALINA hit the board for the third time on the local sod (3-1-0-2) when she rebounded from a troubled start (bumped, steadied) to finish third vs. first-level allowance runners at 7 1/2 furlongs on a 'good' turf. 2 TRIPPI'S DREAM will try the turf after following her $20K maiden victory with an even more impressive $16K 'two-lifetime' victory at seven-eighths of a mile on a 'fast' track.
1-4-3-2
Race 3 -
4 SEATTLE THUNDER is cutting back slightly to a mile & 70 yards after finishing second vs. this level of competition at a mile and a sixteenth on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 5 ARROW'S FLIGHT and 1 WOOD ALLEY are an uncoupled pair from trainer Bill White who merit serious consideration. The former, a son of Snuck In, stretches out after rallying late to finish third in consecutive sprints vs. $50K maidens while the latter, a son of Graeme Hall, makes his second start after a useful career debut at the distance in which he broke slowly and made a 3-wide move, before tiring to finish sixth behind Brave Bandito & The Red Storm. Note that leading trainer White has a 29% win average with horses making their second start.
4-5-1
Race 4 -
10 MS. WONDER WOMAN, 5 for 5 in the money on the Calder sod, including a third place finish behind repeat winner Silver Charades at this level and distance on Apr. 29, will try to beat the boys after failing to handle a wet track listed as 'good' in the $50K Sara's Success on May 26. 5 CHAMPAGNE BRUNCH is turning back to a mile after posting the best last-race speed figure when he edged away to defeat $16K optional claimers at 9 furlongs. 6 MYSTERY PROSPECT, 2 for 2 in the money on the turf vs. this caliber of competition during May, returns to the grass after walloping $25K 'three-lifetime' foes on the main track. 4 QUISTOPHER, 5 for 7 vs. similar on the lawn, hopes Mother Nature cooperates today after failing to finish the race when competing a sealed 'sloppy' track last out.
10-5-6-4
Race 5 -
2 TRUE WILL is a daughter of Yes It's True who is training sharply in preparation for her career debut. Trainer Ed Plesa Jr., 20% with his freshman runners, tabs Roimes Chirinos to ride. 5 KAREN'S BEAUTY is stretching out to five-eighths after finishing a useful fourth in her career debut at 4 1/2 furlongs. Trainer Tim Ritvo has Abdiel Toribio atop the daughter of Officer. 4 TOUGH BELLESA will be treated with Lasix after stalking the action and fading when she apparently bled during her career debut at this level and distance.
2-5-4
Race 6 -
3 RUBICON, a beautifully bred son of Dynaformer, faces winners on the turf after following his second place finish vs. special weight competition on the turf with a 'much the best' maiden win on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 8 KING CASSIA, a 6-time winner on the Calder turf - which is 2 more local turf victories than the rest of the field has combined - returns to the grass after showing speed and fading late in a pair vs. similar on the main track. 12 TUPI will be outfitted with blinkers after getting beat a neck in a 'key' $16K optional claimer that produced three next-out winners. 4 BIG ROYAL ELTISH is trying the turf again after rallying to finish second in a pair of claiming races contested on wet tracks listed as 'good'.
3-8-12-4
Race 7 -
3 SIR BRANDON gets the tepid call to notch his elusive second career victory after responding to a drop in competition with a second place finish at this level and distance. 4 HARDTOBEAT BOB is a late-striding type who merits respect after he rallied to earn a check in consecutive route races vs. this caliber of competition. 2 TOMORROWS PICK will race without blinkers after stalking early and closing late to finish second vs. similar last out.
3-4-2
Race 8 -
9 AWESOME DREAMER is stretching out an additional half-furlong after recovering from a pinball start (bounced around) to finish second in her 5 1/2-furlong career debut. 7 CUTIE KITTY is stretching to 6 furlongs after rallying 3-wide to come within a neck of winning her 4 1/2-furlong career debut. 6 JAMACIAN GIRL is eligible to show more after shaking off the pitfalls associated with the tough inside post to finish third in her 4 1/2-furlong career debut. 3 BOND PRINCESS, a half to Grade 3 stakes-placed Papi Chullo, has trained sharply for her career debut. Trainer Tim Ritvo sweetens the deal with Lasix and leading jock Elvis Trujillo.
9-7-6-3
Race 9 -
1 SO IN LOVE and 5 QUIDNET are an uncoupled pair from trainer David Fawkes who should tickle your fancy. The former drops, and stretches out her best distance thus far (2-1-0-0), after showing speed and fading vs. better in consecutive sprints. Leading jock Elvis Trujillo gets the mount as Sally Mitchellhill moves to Quidnet. The daughter of Fabulous Frolic turns back after finishing fifth, as the lukewarm favorite, in a 'key' 7-furlong affair that produced next-out winners Where'smynotebook & Soweto. 3 RHAPSODY IN PURPLE drops, and shortens up to 6 1/2 furlongs, after showing speed and fading vs. $16K 'two-lifetime' claimers at seven-eighths of a mile.
1-5-3
Race 10 -
6 EXCELLENT JOB will try to get back to his winning ways after finishing first in two races in a row - being disqualified from one - and finishing second at this distance on a sealed 'sloppy' track last out. The consistent son of Halo's Image is reunited with jockey Jose Lopez. 4 DOC TOUR will try $16K optional claimers after posting three consecutive victories vs. conditioned claimers. It's impossible to knock his affinity for the winner's circle. 5 HOLIDAY MOMENT is stepping up the competition after drawing clear to defeat $8K claimers at the distance by almost 9 lengths.
6-4-5
Race 11 -
6 A SPLASH OF CLASS drops, and turns back to 8 furlongs, after disputing the pace and tiring to finish third vs. 32K maidens in a mile and a sixteenth affair moved to a fast main track. 5 BARBS BEST is stretching out around 2-turns after rallying to finish third & second, respectively, vs. similar quality at 7 furlongs. Trainer Sue Richardson has Manny Aguilar in the irons again. 2 LEVY LIGHT, third at the distance on May 17, stretches out after stalking the pace and fading to finish a distant third vs. $20K maidens at 6 furlongs on a sealed 'sloppy' track.
BEST BET: RACE 8 - AWESOME DREAMER
LONG SHOT: RACE 4 - MERCURIUS
6-5-2
__________________
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Lone Star for Sunday July 15, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Lone Star
Lone Star - Race #1 - Post: 1:35pm
Rating: 4
Choice Plays:
#5 CAMPINOUT (ML=5/2)
#2 ZONE STOPPER (ML=3/1)
CAMPINOUT - If you review the PP's for this animal, you'll see he has recorded the top speed rating at the distance and surface. A repeat race in this field and this horse has a superb chance to win. Shepherd should have him moving strong on the turn. Look for this gelding to run much better in today's race. Last race at Louisiana Downs finishing seventh on the soft turf is no sign of his true talent. ZONE STOPPER - Great average class rating on this horse. Should have the power to run well on the turf. This horse recorded a nice rating of 92 in his last event. That speed figure should be good enough to win in today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SUMMER STEPPER (ML=2/1), #4 AFTERNOON PUNCH (ML=5/1), #3 CROOK'S LAD (ML=6/1)
SUMMER STEPPER - Hasn't been on the Lone Star oval in the last few weeks. Cause for some concern. Quite unimpressive fig last time around the track at Lone Star at 1 1/16 miles. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much today. AFTERNOON PUNCH - This gelding is always around, but just doesn't get the job done. Hard to bet on him on the top end. Common speed rating last time out at Lone Star at 1 mile. Don't feel this steed will improve too much in today's event. CROOK'S LAD - Will not be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #5 CAMPINOUT to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5]
__________________
Big Al Mcmordie
The Brewers begin the second half with a lot of promise and a great offense, but also questions surrounding their pitching. Last year's best starter (arguably), lefthander Chris Capuano, is in a complete funk right now and the Brewers may have to decide soon whether to put him back on the DL or keep putting him out on the mound every 5 days hoping that he will work out whatever the problem is. This year's stud, Ben Sheets left Saturday's game with a finger injury and the bullpen, including closer Francisco Cordero, has been a little shaky lately. But the Brewers still have a lot of confidence from their veterans like tonight's starter righthander Jeff Suppan. Suppan has certainly been in a pennant chase before having been on the Cardinals the past 3 years. And although Suppan's numbers are not spectacular this season, he is a clutch performer, especially at home in Miller Park, where he has a 5-2 record and 4.26 ERA. Rockies righthander Aaron Cook has been getting hit lately. A lot. In his last five starts covering 32 1/3 innings, Cook has given up 45 hits to opposing batters. Milwaukee has won three of Suppan's last four starts and although he has not faced the Rockies this year as a member of the Brew Crew, he won all three of his starts against them last year when he was with the Cards. Colorado is 4-12 in the last sixteen meetings. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
MADDUX SPORTS
Chicago Cubs -135
HONDO
July 15, 2007 -- Hondo would like to apologize to the baseball gods for whatever it was he did. It'll never happen again. Mr. Aitch plunged deeper into red ink last night when he took a big fat oh-fer-four with the As tros, Jays, Nats and Pods to put the ugly number at 750 niedenfuers.
Today, he's woofing it up with McCarthy and the Rangers. Ten units.
Today, he's woofing it up with McCarthy and the Rangers. Ten units.
BLACK MAGIC SPORT
Arizona -152
(Listing Webb)
Brandon Webb is the Ace on this staff and he is pitching like it with a 3.37 ERA on the season. Webb has picked up right where he left off from last year’s NL Cy Young status. The Diamondbacks are 7-2 in Webb’s last 9 home starts against San Diego. The Padres are batting .223 over their last 10 games and Webb will have no problem shutting this slumping line-up down tonight. Arizona is 4-0 in their last 4 home games against San Diego. The Padres are 0-5 in Justin Germano's last 5 starts vs. the National League West Division. The Diamondbacks are 6-1 in Webb's last 7 starts vs. the National League West Divison. Arizona is 51-23 in their last 74 meetings with San Diego. They have the Padres’ number. Cash in with Arizona Sunday night.
BLACK WIDOW SPORTS
Florida -157
(List Olsen)
Jason Simontacchi will get lit up today when he faces this dangerous Florida line-up. Simontacchi is 6-6 with a 6.11 ERA on the season and Florida hitters are drooling over the opportunity to face this guy. The Marlins are 4-1 in Scott Olsen's last 5 home starts. The Marlins are 9-4 in Olsen's last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Florida hasn’t been the best of teams at home, but they are far good enough to surpass the Nationals in this contest. The Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 home meetings with Washington. Take Florida.
INFO PLAYS
3* on Atlanta -150
(Listing Carlyle)
Atlanta has won 4 out of 5 against Pittsburgh this season and they will be coming out on top again today. Buddy Carlyle is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. He is in a groove and will excel against this Pittsburgh team that doesn’t produce many runs. The Pirates are hitting a mere .246 on the road this year. Atlanta is 24-7 in their last 31 home games against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is 2-8 in their last 10 road games. The Pirates are 3-12 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Braves are 16-3 in their last 19 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Atlanta.
LOCKSMITH SPORTS
LA Angels -1.5 +105 (listing Weaver)
Texas is terrible against AL West opponents at just 8-17 this season while the Angels are handling their business by recording a 17-9 divisional mark. The Angels are 8-3 against Texas this season and 4-0 against Texas at home this season with Saturday's matchup pending. LA is an incredible 18-5 against the Rangers at home over the last 3 seasons. Weaver clearly gives the best team in the west the advantage here today.
PRICELESS PICKS
Philadelphia -121 (listing Eaton)
Eaton is 15-4 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) since 1997. He is 13-1 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons and 30-16 against the money line in day games since 1997. The Phillies are 25-9 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Eaton is our guy today. Take the Phillies.
50* San Francisco
Scott Spreitzer
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
I'm backing the Phillies to gain the weekend sweep over St. Louis. Adam Wainwright keeps bouncing between the pen and the starting rotation. Today, he'll make a start against the hot-hitting Phillies. Philadelphia is 16-8 against the weak NL Central and 38-22 as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, the Cards are now 13-20 against teams with a winning record and 3-11 against the NL East. The defending champs are a mess and there's no light at the end of the tunnel. Look for Adam Eaton to get plenty of support and for the Phillies to cash again.
Play on: Philadelphia
Vegas Experts
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Bosox bats look to be heating up. Boston has gone over the total in six of Josh Beckett's nine home starts. He has a 5.25 LT ERA vs. Toronto. BOSTON is 58-40 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons, 20-10 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season and 13-2 OVER in home games against division opponents this season.
Play on: Over
Ben Burns
(**Blue Chip Total Blowout**)
Indians/Royals Under
Sports Gambling Hotline
Oakland (-125) at MINNESOTA
Today we like the Athletics to end their 6-game losing streak as Dan Haren takes the mound against Minnesota and Boof Bonser.
Bonser is 0-4 over his last 5 starts, and has lost his last 3 decisions, giving up 12 runs in his last 18 innings of work. We expect the A's to get some offense cranking against the struggling Bonser this aftternoon.
Haren is a rock-solid 10-3 for the year with an ERA of only 2.30, and last season in his last pair of starts against the Twins, he worked 14 scoreless frames of ball for a 1-0 mark.
If Oakland can't win today minus the small road chalk, they may never win again!
Play on the A's.
3? OAKLAND
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego (+150) at ARIZONA
San Diego has dropped the first two games of this series,including blowing a 4-0 lead Saturday to lose 5-4. This team has much better pitching and plays too well on the road to get swept by the D'Backs.
On the hill today is Justiin Germano (5-3, 3.90 ERA) for the Padres. He is 3-1 on the road with a 2.70 ERA and 3-1 in day games with a 1.75 ERA. He was solid before the break except for his last two starts. He had delivered seven of eight starts of allowing three runs or less before getting hit hard his final two.
Arizona's Brandon Webb (8-6, 3.37 ERA) is on the mound and he is just 3-3 at home this season. He gave up nine runs over 13 innings in his last two starts before the break, both losses. He's faced the Padres twice already this season and allowed two runs in both outings.
Germano established himself as a legitimate starter for San Diego earlier this season and look for him to regain some of that form today. This will be a low-scoring affair but the Padres should get the narrow victory.
2? SAN DIEGO
Karl Garrett
Los Angeles at SAN FRANCISCO (-125)
Gotta look for the Giants to avoid the sweep today at home against the Dodgers.
Los Angeles is sending Brett Tomko to the mound, and Tomko's last start comes back at the end of May, as the righty sports a bad 1-5 record for the season with a sky-high ERA of 5.95.
Countering is the Giants' stopper Noah Lowry, as Lowry has been money in the bank at home this year going 7-1 with an ERA just over 2. Lowry's last 3 starts have all been wins, as he has allowed just 3 earned runs over his last 19 innings of work.
The Dodgers have yet to lose at game at San Francisco this season, going 6-0, but today they will take it on the chin as Lowry remains tough as nails at home.
2? SAN FRANCISCO
Chuck Franklin
Houston at CHICAGO CUBS (-125)
The Cubs are playing good baseball right now, especially in Chicago. They have won six of their last seven home games, and are looking to pull off the sweep over the Astros with another win today. Chicago is sending to the mound Jason Marquis, who has a winning record on the season and a winning career record vs. Houston. The Cubs have been winners in seven of his last eight home starts.
The Astros have been a disappointment this season. They have won only six of their last 26 road games, and are 0-4 in their last four outings as a dog. I expect to see another road loss for them today, and not just because the Cubs are fired up, confident, and a more talented team in general. Another major factor is that Houston is starting Wandy Rodriguez, who has a losing record on the season and a losing career record against the Cubs. The Astros have been losers in nine of his last 11 road starts. Need I say more? Take the Cubs at home to complete the sweep against these unimpressive Astros.
3? CUBS
Drew Gordon
Oakland at MINNESOTA (+105)
A's have lost 6 straight, playing pathetic baseball along the way. Most in the public believe Dan Haren is going to end the A's losing streak, but I couldn't diagree more for several reasons:
Dan Haren hasn't been nearly as dominant of late, going 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts. He's allowed 3 runs apiece in each of his last 5 starts, slowly but surely watching his ERA jump.
The Athletics offense couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a guided missile. Guys, Oakland is batting .193 as a team over their last 10 games! Good news for the Twins Bosner, who's coming off three straight losses.
Bosner gets just what the doctor ordered, facing an offense struggling as badly as Oakland is right now. Despite the losses, his numbers are errily similar to Haren's over their last 3 starts. Look for Bosner to get back to his winning ways this afternoon.
Take Minnesota behind Bosner over Oakland in this MLB match up.
2? MINNESOTA
Dave Cokin
Take "(970) BAL Orioles"
The White Sox should start doing better than they have to this point vs. lefties, as Paul Konerko has heated up and Jermaine Dye is finally showing signs of breaking out. Jose Contreras has had a pretty bad year, but if he can just be adequate here he'll be in good position to garner a win. Baltimore rookie Garrett Olson is a decent prospect, but I'm not sold that he's ready for this level just yet. The White Sox are my Sunday play.
Jim Feist
Take "Under"
Justin Verlander has been exceptional this year for the Tigers. Not only did he toss a no-hitter back on June 12th versus Milwaukee, but the righthander has reeled off 10 wins against just three losses. Verlander has been just as impressive on the road, going 5-1 with a 2.56 era. In his one start against the Mariners this season, Justin gave up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 7-3 win. Jeff Weaver has finally got his act together. Weaver's record is a ugly 2-6 with a 6.34 era. However, in his last three starts Weaver has allowed a total of three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. Looks like a very good pitcher duel here on Sunday and we'll go with the UNDER!!!
Brian Gabrielle
Bonus Play: Proposition 1 Special vs Proposition 2 Special
At this week’s John Deere Classic, take Zach Johnson (14-1), 1/6 unit in the outright: Illinois is as close to Iowa as Johnson is going to get this year on Tour, geographically. The PGA Championship is in Oklahoma, which is two states away from Illinois by stretch, but the Memorial in Ohio was closer in terms of mileage. Point is, Johnson’s done real well this year with two wins. He’s coming off a MC at The Travelers but he’s the best short bet this week. Take Anthony Kim (25-1), 1/6 unit: Four top-10s and nine top-25s, this guy’s having what will be a breakout year if he can win. A birdie machine, he just needs to make more putts. Take Carl Pettersson (33-1), 1/6 unit: He got off to a slow start but he’s coming off T17 and T15 at the U.S. Open and Travelers, respectively.Pettersson’s sort of the definition of workmanlike, but he’s managed a win in each of the last two years.
Cappersaccess
(Sun) MLB Yankees B'Rays 180 D'Rays
(Sun) MLB Angels Rangers 210 Angels
(Sun) MLB Phillies Cardinals 125 Phillies
Jeff Alexander
Bonus Play: San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
1 Unit on Arizona -152 (listing Germano and Webb) The Padres are just 2-11 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 11-2 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. With the way Germano has struggled of late, we have to side with Webb and the D-Backs here considering the evidence.
Bill Young
Bonus Play: Washington Nationals vs Florida Marlins
1* on Florida -161 (List Olsen) Jason Simontacchi will get lit up today when he faces this dangerous Florida line-up. Simontacchi is 6-6 with a 6.11 ERA on the season and Florida hitters are drooling over the opportunity to face this guy. The Marlins are 4-1 in Scott Olsen's last 5 home starts. The Marlins are 9-4 in Olsen's last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Florida hasn’t been the best of teams at home, but they are far good enough to surpass the Nationals in this contest. The Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 home meetings with Washington. Take Florida
Lou Diamondz
100 Units Brewers -135
ROCKY ATKINSON / ROCKETMAN SPORTS
NASCAR
#5 Kyle Busch vs #99 Carl Edwards 4:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* #5 Kyle Busch -125
Kyle Busch has 1 Top 5 finish and 1 Top 10 finish in his 2 races in Chicago. He has finished of 14th and 3rd here in Chicago and an average finish of 8.5. Edwards has an average finish of 29.5 here in Chicago. He finished 39th and 20th in his 2 races here. We'll play Kyle Busch to finish ahead of Carl Edwards for 3 units! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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Vernon Croy
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants (MLB)
Jul 15, 2007 4:05 PM EDT
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
1 Unit - Take L.A. Dodgers +115, This pick falls into one of my MLB systems and the Dodgers are hitting .336 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging over 5.7 rpg. The Dodgers have hit lefties very well this season and they are 16-8 against them.
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VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Chicago Cubs (Marquis) -130** over Houston (Rodriquez)
San Francisco (Lowry) -120* over L.A.Dodgers (Tomko)
Philadelphia (Eaton) / St. Louis (Wainwright) OVER 10*
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VEGAS EXPERTS Tip Of The Day
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Sunday, July 15th, 2:05 P.M. EDT
Bosox bats look to be heating up. Boston has gone over the total in six of Josh Beckett's nine home starts. He has a 5.25 LT ERA vs. Toronto. BOSTON is 58-40 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons, 20-10 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season and 13-2 OVER in home games against division opponents this season.
Play on: Over
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Sunday HorseRacing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (5th) Desirabledancer, 5-1
(6th) Jazzy Gallop, 10-1
Belmont Park (1st) Three Shots, 5-1
(2nd) Fancy Fusaichi, 3-1
Calder Race Course (1st) Timely Surprise, 4-1
(2nd) Twiceasbeautiful, 3-1
Canterbury Park (7th) Castor Troy (Ire), 5-1
(8th) Jagan, 5-1
Charles Town (8th) Don't Wonder, 6-1
(10th) A Plus Student, 10-1
Colonial Downs (4th) Stormin Delight, 10-1
(8th) Bold Turn, 10-1
Delaware Park (4th) Mlle Ballerina, 7-2
(7th) All Smiles, 8-1
Ellis Park (4th) Patriot Game, 7-2
(11th) Mysius (Arg), 3-1
Emerald Downs (2nd) Cya Liberty, 7-2
(10th) The Great Question, 3-1
Finger Lakes (6th) Rapid Rickey, 7-2
(9th) Free Romance, 8-1
Fort Erie (6th) Chemistry Class, 7-2
(9th) Sybelle Katheria, 8-1
Hastings Park (3rd) Sharp Chevron, 5-1
(6th) Cabron, 3-1
Hollywood Park (10th) Holly's Gold, 7-2
(11th) Stop the Humor, 6-1
Lone Star Park (6th) My Parade, 9-2
(10th) Snifters Spirit, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (4th) Stormy But Crafty, 9-2
(5th) Shine True, 8-1
Monmouth Park (2nd) Matter of Style, 7-2
(4th) Keep A Knockin, 5-1
Mountaineer (4th) Tiger's Angel, 9-2
(9th) Bavarian Prince, 4-1
Northlands (3rd) Bear Nobility, 7-2
(8th) Takethefifth, 8-1
Philadelphia Park (7th) Dirty Dawg, 7-2
(8th) Buck Trout's Niece, 8-1
River Downs (10th) Shiny Dancer, 7-2
(13th) My Man Matt, 5-1
Suffolk Downs (3rd) River Maam, 7-2
(8th) Top Spot, 6-1
Thistledown (7th) Summer Gulch, 6-1
(11th) War Chest, 3-1
Woodbine (3rd) Minstrel Miss, 8-1
(5th) Lemon Twins, 4-1
DELAWARE H. (G2), 11TH-DEL, $1,000,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/4M, 5:44 P.M. EDT, 7-15
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 PEAK MARIA'S WAY GORHAM MICHAEL E ROCCO J 115
2 LILA PAIGE LEVINE BRUCE ALVARADO R JR 113
3 ASI SIEMPRE BIANCONE PATRICK L PRADO E S 121
4 UNBRIDLED BELLE PLETCHER TODD A DOMINGUEZ R A 114
5 ICE COOL KITTY DUTROW RICHARD E LANERIE C J 114
6 INDIAN VALE PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 120
7 PROMENADE GIRL MURRAY LAWRENCE E ROSE J 117
8 DAYTIME PROMISE CONTESSA GARY C PINO M G 112
9 TAKE A CHECK SMALL RICHARD W NO RIDER 111
PEAK MARIA'S WAY (Pyramid Peak) doesn't have quite the credentials as some of her rivals in Sunday's rich $1 million Delaware H. (G2), but the Michael Gorham-trained miss has winning experience over the track as well as the numbers to get the job done in the 1 1/4-mile event. The four-year-old filly owns three stakes victories, most recently taking the Obeah S. going nine furlongs at Delaware Park. That wasn't the first Delaware victory for the lass, as she also scored in last year's Ghost and Goblins S. and St. Georges S. over the track. Peak Maria's Way earned a career-best 104 BRIS Speed rating as well as a 102 BRIS E2 Pace figure last time out, and could use her experience to add a first graded win to her record. Joseph Rocco returns to the saddle.
INDIAN VALE (A.P. Indy) and ASI SIEMPRE (El Prado [Ire]) are the likely favorites in this event, and we're tabbing the former to be best of the rest. The Todd Pletcher-trained five-year-old began the year with a 5 1/2-length win in the Next Move H. (G3), and was fourth by just 2 1/2 lengths over a sloppy, sealed track at Churchill in the Louisville Breeders' Cup S. (G2) next out. She easily scored in the Fleur de Lis H. (G2) most recently, garnering a 104 Speed rating, and will try to lead this one all the way home under John Velazquez.
Asi Siempre, a Grade 1 winner from last year, just missed when second by a head in the Louisville Breeders' Cup and then filled that same spot in the Fleur de Lis behind Indian Vale. The Patrick Biancone charge has recorded her two biggest wins to date on the Polytrack at Keeneland, but has also posted some nice placings on the dirt. Asi Siempre will in the mix late, but we're willing to take a stand against and just tab for the exotics under Edgar Prado.
UNBRIDLED BELLE (Broken Vow) was second in the Obeah in her 2007 bow, and ended her sophomore campaign with two well-beaten fourths in the Gazelle S. (G1) and Alabama S. (G1). The uncoupled Pletcher trainee could be much more competitive against these rivals, especially while making her second start of the year. The dark bay lass should be included in the exotics at a price. Ramon Dominguez has the call.
PROMENADE GIRL (Carson City) has run third in the Ogden Phipps H. (G1) and Monmouth Beach S. so far this year, and will have to run back to her Molly Pitcher Breeders' Cup S. (G2) win from last season to factor in the top three here. The Lawrence Murray-trained five-year-old owns a win at Delaware, and could show more of her 2006 form in this spot. She could grab a share with Jeremy Rose aboard. ICE COOL KITTY (Tomorrows Cat) has won her last three by easy margins in front-running fashion, but doesn't appear fast enough to keep up with Indian Vale in this one. She's still likely to be close to the pace early and could hang around for a check late.
LILA PAIGE (Cryptoclearance) was claimed three back and might not be up to this class level just yet. We'll let her beat us. DAYTIME PROMISE (Five Star Day) and TAKE A CHECK (Touch Gold) were well beaten in their last ones and probably won't factor here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-PEAK MARIA'S WAY
2nd-INDIAN VALE
3rd-ASI SIEMPRE
BARBARO S. (G3), 10TH-DEL, $300,000, 3YO, 1 1/16M, 5:13 P.M. EDT, 7-15
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 KING OF THE ROXY PLETCHER TODD A DOMINGUEZ R A 116
2 REPTILIAN SMARTS RITVO TIMOTHY CASTELLANO A JR 116
3 HAL'S MY HOPE ROSE BARRY R PINO M G 118
4 POINT BLAKE SLIVKA SANDRA NO RIDER 116
5 PHONE HOME DUTROW ANTHONY W VELAZQUEZ J R 116
6 XCHANGER SHUMAN MARK PRADO E S 118
7 LONGLEY MOTION H GRAHAM ROSE J 116
On the Delaware H. (G2) undercard, a field of seven sophomores will go 1 1/16 miles in the $300,000 Barbaro S. (G3) on Delaware Park's dirt. KING OF THE ROXY (Littleexpectations) and XCHANGER (Exchange Rate) are the two more notable runners in the renamed Leonard Richards, but both are inconsistent in their performances and we'll try to beat them with LONGLEY (Seeking the Gold).
The Graham Motion-trained bay has really stepped forward lately, taking an allowance/optional claimer at Pimlico, before shipping to Delaware to capture an allowance and the Floor Show S. by a combined 13 3/4 lengths. Longley earned 101 BRIS Speed and 106 BRIS Late Pace figures for his initial stakes win, and loves this distance (4-3-0-0). He's continued to work well in preparation for his second try against graded rivals, and appears poised to make it four in a row under Jeremy Rose.
Xchanger eventually ran eighth in the Preakness S. (G1) after leading for the first half and could take this field from gate-to-wire under Edgar Prado. The Mark Shuman charge utilized front-running tactics when taking the Federico Tesio S. prior to his try in the second jewel of the Triple Crown, earning a 102 Speed rating. He's been taking on some of the best in his division so far this year, and could use this slight drop in class to return to the winner's circle.
The Todd Pletcher-trained King of the Roxy will be making just his fourth start of the year in this spot. The dark bay colt captured his sophomore debut in the Hutcheson S. (G2), then was second by a half-length in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He was well back in sixth last out when trying the Preakness, but did earn his best Speed rating to date (102) and is eligible to move forward off that one while coming off a break. Ramon Dominguez has the call aboard the 2-1 morning-line favorite.
POINT BLAKE's (Quiet American) status in this race is somewhat in question considering he doesn't have a rider listed. If the Sandra Slivka charge runs, he could make a place for himself in the top three. The bay colt has captured two of his past three starts at Delaware, running second in the Floor Show in his other one, and has worked bullets over the track in advance of this target. HAL'S MY HOPE (Halo's Image) has recorded two wins this year, including his first black-type score in the Unbridled S. while going this distance. He was fourth most recently in the Peter Pan S. (G2) and has been racking up some nice numbers in his past four starts. The dark bay three-year-old could challenge in the exotics.
PHONE HOME (Phone Trick) owns just one start this year, finishing second in a June 8 allowance/optional claimer at Belmont, and might need another race before trying this type of company. REPTILIAN SMARTS (Include) hasn't been able to handle stakes competition in his past two and we don't think he'll turn that form around here. We'll let the bay beat us.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-LONGLEY
2nd-XCHANGER
3rd-KING OF THE ROXY
BOWLING GREEN H. (G2), 8TH-BEL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, 1 3/8MT, 4:45 P.M. EDT, 7-15
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 TRIPPI'S STORM HOUGH STANLEY M CASTELLANO J J 114
2 DREADNAUGHT VOSS THOMAS H VELASQUEZ CORNE 116
3 SUNRIVER PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 116
4 BARASTRAIGHT (GB) RIBAUDO ROBERT J JARA FERNANDO 114
5 SHAKIS (IRE) MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P GARCIA A 117
6 FISHY ADVICE DONK DAVID COA E M 117
7 SILVER WHISTLE MOTT WILLIAM I DESORMEAUX K J 115
8 INTERPATATION BARBARA ROBERT HILL C 114
Eight turf marathoners are entered to contest Sunday's Bowling Green H. (G2) at Belmont Park. Although the Todd Pletcher-trained SUNRIVER (Saint Ballado) has raced just once on the green, we came away from that effort quite impressed and will tab him as our top choice in here. The dark bay showed class as a three-year-old last year, taking the Peter Pan S. (G2) and placing in the Florida Derby (G1) and Belmont S. (G1), and the Kentucky-bred could improve in his four-year-old season. The well-bred colt possesses excellent tactical speed, is bred to handle the 1 3/8-mile distance and has trained well in advance of this. Garrett Gomez will ride.
SHAKIS (Ire) (Machiavellian), the likely favorite in here, was a big third in the recent Manhattan H. (G1) and is an obvious win contender for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. The seven-year-old has kept decent company throughout his racing career but has yet to earn a stakes win, a trend that sways us from keeping this one in the top spot. A top effort under Alan Garcia will certainly challenge the whole group.
SILVER WHISTLE (Alphabet Soup) owns two wins from four tries over this course and fits the bill of one who could complete some exotics at a square price. The Bill Mott charge was no match for Sunriver last out, but should benefit from the added ground and additional pace presence that this one offers. A Grade 3 hero at 12 furlongs, Silver Whistle should get a fair stalking trip before putting in his late push. Kent Desormeaux has the assignment.
Multiple Grade 2 winner DREADNAUGHT (Lac Ouimet) has visited the winner's circle just once since 2005, but the hard-knocking gelding often runs well enough to be in contention late. The seven-year-old bay was a close second in the Sussex S. last out in a prep for this, and should appreciate the return to marathon racing after traveling just 1 1/16 miles last try. We won't get our hopes up that this Tom Voss trainee will win, but we certainly expect him to be in the mix beneath Cornelio Velasquez.
FISHY ADVICE (Woodman) had a nice tune-up for this, a score in the Battlefield S., and has been first or second in his past seven consecutive outings for conditioner David Donk. The five-year-old chestnut is stakes tested and owns a good deal of tactical speed, but has never run this far and we're not sure how the Kentucky-bred will handle the trip. Fishy Advice will be piloted by Eibar Coa and is a strong exotics player with his best.
INTERPATATION (Langfuhr) is a consistent late runner but lacks the quality of much of this field and is best kept on the bottom of the exotics. Trained by Robert Barbara, the gelded five-year-old has won or placed in four of six local starts, and should peak in his third start off the brief freshening, but his best is probably not up to par with the best of those chosen above him. Channing Hill will guide the dark bay from the outside post.
TRIPPI'S STORM (Trippi) has improved nicely since transferring to grass racing four starts back for trainer Stanley Hough. The Florida-bred gelding has put in two big efforts versus cheaper over this lawn and could get a piece with a career-topping effort. Javier Castellano will ride the likely pacesetter, who breaks from the rail.
BARASTRAIGHT (GB) (Barathea [Ire]) is a Group 3 hero in his native France but has failed to cross the wire first in five subsequent starts since last April. The ridgling was an unenthusiastic fourth in a recent allowance test, and nothing from that effort leads us to believe that the chestnut will make an impact in here. Fernando Jara will pilot the four-year-old.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-SUNRIVER
2nd-SHAKIS (Ire)
3rd-SILVER WHISTLE
SUNSET H. (G2), 9TH-HOL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/2MT, 5:20 P.M. PDT, 7-15
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 BRIGHT PREDICTION MENDOZA JESUS TALAMO JOSEPH 110
2 SPRING HOUSE CANANI JULIO C VALDIVIA J JR 116
3 STORMIN AWAY MULLINS JEFF GARCIA MARTIN 119
4 FITZ FLAG (ARG) REVIRIEGO JUAN ALMEIDA G F 114
5 RUSH RUSH MACHOWSKY MICHAEL BAZE M C 112
6 RUNAWAY DANCER HENDRICKS DAN L SOLIS A 117
Sunday's $150,000 Sunset H. (G2) is the closing-day feature at Hollywood Park, with racing shifting to Del Mar on Wednesday, and it's difficult to get excited about the six horses assembled for the 1 1/2-mile turf event. STORMIN AWAY (Skip Away) will enter the event in peak form, winning three of his last four starts, and the Jeff Mullins-trained gelding rates top billing.
A three-time stakes hero, Stormin Away captured the 14-furlong Round Table H. at Hollywood last out, closing with a rush in deep stretch to win by three parts of a length, and he's three-for-six over the course. The gray rated that afternoon, but Stormin Away possesses good tactical speed, winning an allowance three starts back while racing on the front end. With little speed in this field, jockey Martin Garcia will likely have Stormin Away on or very close to the early lead.
FITZ FLAG (Arg) (Flag Down) is a win contender. He's recorded a pair of decent fourth-place finishes against better company in his last two outings and missed by only 1 3/4 lengths when third in the San Juan Capistrano Invitational H. (G2) two starts back. Trained by Juan Reviriego, Fitz Flag is a threat to earn his first U.S. stakes win in the Sunset.
Multiple Grade 3 victor RUNAWAY DANCER (Runaway Groom) finished second in the Hollywood Turf Cup (G1) last December and exits a decent third in the Round Table. The Dan Hendricks charge definitely fits well at this level, and the gray gelding loves a route of ground. The confirmed closer could leave himself too much to do, but we won't exclude him from the top three.
SPRING HOUSE (Chester House) just missed in the Round Table, setting most of the pace in his first start for conditioner Julio Canani, and may continue to show more in his second start in California. The stakes-winning gelding had earned triple-digit BRIS Late Pace numbers in his seven efforts prior to the Round Table (75), and we wouldn't be surprised to see new jockey Jose Valdivia Jr. attempt to save a little more for the finish.
BRIGHT PREDICTION (Dance Brightly) was claimed for $10,000 two starts back. The Jesus Mendoza trainee is one-for-one over the course, tempting us to give him a chance in this less-than-stellar field, but we can't pull the trigger. RUSH RUSH (More Than Ready) will be making his stakes debut. A three-length winner over entry-level allowance/optional claiming rivals most recently on May 12, the four-year-old gelding will be tested for class and distance.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-STORMIN AWAY
2nd-FITZ FLAG (Arg)
3rd-RUNAWAY DANCER
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Sunday, July 15
RACE ONE
A small, but competitive field in the Robert K. Kerlan Handicap kicks off an 11-race closing day card. BONFANTE, winner of the Grade 3 San Simeon Handicap this winter at Santa Anita, holds a slight class edge. Though he was off the board in the June 9 Ack Ack Handicap, Bonfante likely needed the race and the distance (7 1-2 furlongs) may have been slightly out of his range. SCOTTSBLUFF is two for four over this course, including a recent score in the Flame Thrower Stakes. He's got a great tracking style and his connections (Jeff Mullins and Clinton Potts) have been on a roll. ONE UNION was lapped on SCOTTSBLUFF in the Flame Thrower, but must overcome today's rail draw.
RACE TWO
WARREN'S PLAYER was eliminated at the start in her debut June 14. She broke last in a 12-horse field, then was forced to steady as she attempted to get back into the race. She won't have nearly as much traffic trouble in this short field. BORDER PROBLEMS was also off a tad slowly in her premier and never recovered. She's draws well here and gets a rider upgrade to Joe Talamo. FILLED WITH HOPE battled through some slow splits in an improved effort. She's got a look in a race without much substance.
RACE THREE
At this class level, consistency is usually lacking. DIXIE DIXIE DIXIE handled a starter allowance field in May, then trailed when moved way up in class. Dropping in for $25,000 and being reunited with Talamo should be enough to take this. KISSIN PARTY seems to be on a downslide for Mike Mitchell, but retains the services of leading rider Michael Baze. This is the lowest level at which she's competed. SWISS ROSE was a good second against similar one race back, but had no excuses last time out.
RACE FOUR
In his debut, WISE MANDATE had the misfortune of hooking Sea of Pleasure in a track-record breaking race and had to settle for second. 'MANDATE's works have been a bit up and down since, but the talent is there. GOTHAM DEVIL is by a sire (Gotham City) who has burst on the scene with a couple of early victories. He worked a crisp half-mile from the gate in 47 1/5 July 1. PUBLIC IMAGE hails from a barn (Cliff Sise) that does exceptionally well with first time starters. Underrated rider Isaias Enriquez ensures a fair price.
RACE FIVE
In a close call, we'll give the edge to WIZZEN MIZZEN, who was visually impressive breaking her maiden at this trip June 22. 'MIZZEN is certainly bred for the turf and showed it the first time she stepped on the sod. LADY MATILDA ran great off the bench and is clearly the one to beat, but the short price discourages a wager. MACADAMIA has been hanging a bit going long so is shortened up today by Paulo Lobo. She's only won once in 11 tries, but has been in the money five times.
RACE SIX
NORWAY HOUSE is fresh from a dominating victory against slightly softer and should easily be able to handle the one-level class rise for Mullins. PATRIOTIC FLAME returned from a long layoff, took a giant class drop, and was re-claimed by Mike Mitchell. The fact that he steps up in class is a good sign. SAMWISE is an interesting longshot possibility. Off slowly, as usual, SAMWISE made a nice mid-race move before tiring in deep stretch. On his best day, he's good enough to be a factor.
RACE SEVEN
THE FIVE J'S looks like another timely claim by Mullins. He carved out some swift fractions last time and just failed to hold off Claiming Horse of the Meeting contender Deputy Lad. When the trainer change (Knapp to Mullins) is factored in, THE FIVE J's looks like a solid bet. AGENT HANRATTY takes a step down after flattening out sprinting. He's defeated better as late as March. MEGABYTE weakened after a seven-week rest, but should be fitter this time around. He'll be trying to capture his seventh career win.
RACE EIGHT
ENTER ANON ran out of his mind in taking his last two starts. If he repeats either of those races he'll win this, however he was claimed by a trainer who hasn't won a race this meet. WINNING TACTICS ran like a short horse in his comeback and should improve off the race. Trainer Marty Jones has clicked with 14 percent with his second time off a layoff runners. TOLNAI won a pair of races in his native Argentina. He looks to have some talent, but often times South Americans need a race or two to acclimate.
RACE NINE
STORMIN AWAY just keeps getting better and better. He won three of his last four starts while displaying the ability to relax early, something he wasn't able to do earlier in his career. His most recent victory in the demanding Round Table Handicap was arguably his best race yet. RUNAWAY DANCER dropped too far back in the Round Table and was given too much to do. Expect the veteran gelding to be much closer to the pace today. SPRING HOUSE couldn't quite hold off STORMIN AWAY after compiling a big early lead. That effort was his first for Julio Canani and this shorter trip works in his favor.
RACE TEN
DEVONS SUCCESS has blazing speed, but has had to deal with many infirmities during a brief nine-race career. Today, she gets her best opportunity to shake loose from the outside post and might get brave on the lead. KELLY CARSON was sharp earlier in the year but seems to have lost her edge this meeting. She was an okay second at this level one race back. HOLLY'S GOLD is a must use in the trifecta. The recent Dominic Farma claim has been first, second, or third in 13 of 16 tries.
RACE ELEVEN
The curtain comes down on the 2007 meet with a real turf puzzle for maiden special weights. STOP THE HUMOR is the selection, but without much confidence. The Craig Lewis trainee has been competitive in recent sprints and has a running style that is conducive to two turns. MUSIC AND MAGIC was burned up pressing the pace against similar in May. Though she's picking up 10 pounds after a brief freshening, she gets a stronger rider today. POULE D'EAU raced evenly in her first attempt at this distance. Espinoza stays with her and she's a fit with these.
Best Bet-NORWAY HOUSE (6)
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Belmont Park
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Lahudood (3rd race)
First Race
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1. Fort Carillon 2. Stashed Away 3. Pecunia
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FORT CARILLON has had only one opportunity to run against restricted claimers, when four wide in a sloppy off-the-turf race at Aqueduct in first start off a long layoff; either race on firm turf at this meet vs. multiple winners stacks up well with this easier bunch. STASHED AWAY returns for first start at 5, after being blanked in 11 allowance attempts in Florida in 2006; several of those efforts were good enough to contend with the local non-winners of two claimers. PECUNIA steps into a very realistic spot following decisive maiden triumph from off the pace; versatile enough to go to the front if no one else wants the early lead.
Second Race
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1. Sophie's Salad 2. Come Fly Away 3. Fancy Fusaichi
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SOPHIE'S SALAD impressed in debut at Saratoga last year, rallying six wide to miss by less than a length, and something clearly went awry when she stopped abruptly second out; been working like clockwork upstate for new trainer. COME FLY AWAY was a good-figure second after setting the pace first time on turf, then regressed sharply when outsprinted for the early lead; capable of rebounding quickly. FANCY FUSAICHI also has to bounce back, after an encouraging second in debut behind allowance repeater Partida, followed by a 17-point bounce; has license to like the turf, as does the newly blinkered and regally bred APACHE PLUME.
Third Race
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1. Lahudood 2. Sweet Way 3. Milk Town
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LAHUDOOD was odds-on for U.S. debut, but hooked another classy import in Wingspan in that 1 1/4- mile allowance, and was nipped through a rip-roaring last half-mile in 46.60 seconds; twice second in Group 2s in France, towers over these. SWEET WAY raced twice on turf in California, earning identical Beyers while beaten a length or so at 7-5; very nice breeze on Saratoga turf 11 days ago after shipping to New York. MILK TOWN outfinished DOUBLE DINGHY DAY and narrowly missed the win when returned from three-month layoff; consistent filly is eligible to improve second time on grass.
Fourth Race
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1. Dana Dew 2. Snare 3. Bet the Diva
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DANA DEW debuts for Rick Dutrow Jr., who saddled first-out juvenile winners By the Light ($15.00) and Dazzling Derek ($4.90) on Wednesday & Thursday, also with Rafael Bejarano up; if good things indeed come in threes, this $280K purchase is assumed ready to roll. SNARE is by an excellent debut sire, and comes off an improved workout last week; trainer dominated the 2-year-old racing at the just-concluded Churchill Downs' meet. BET THE DIVA finished gamely to overtake SAND AND SONG when both were beaten by a 3-2 second-time starter; first-crop sire Posse has produced some precocious ones already.
Fifth Race
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1. Stratonic 2. Grosvenor Square 3. Solewisher
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STRATONIC recorded Beyers in the 80s on a handful of different turf courses during extended stretch from last September through May, so it may be wise to give him benefit of the doubt for one subpar performance last out; allowance winner at 18-1 this course & distance last fall with Eibar Coa. GROSVENOR SQUARE returns to restricted claiming ranks for first time since beating non-winners of two stock here last fall; useful tightener in comeback chasing Three in the Bag's easy pace. It took SOLEWISHER six tries, but he got through non-winners of two condition despite a wide trip on this course earlier at the meet; been training right along since then at Monmouth, has history of stringing good races together.
Sixth Race
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1. Indian War Dance 2. Fit Faze 3. Hi Time Scott
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INDIAN WAR DANCE has been in raging form winning four of five starts by open lengths since returning from a freshening, the lone defeat coming when outsprinted for the early lead; he's quick enough to get the top in this starter 'cap, and may go to 7 for 7 at a mile. FIT FAZE is also well suited to the distance, and has climbed back up the ladder since mid-winter; deep closer has maintained top form for months, but gets little respect at the windows. HI TIME SCOTT is an intriguing new face, and one who boasts .600 batting average at a mile; put together several big-figure races last fall, appears set to improve off pair of comeback sprints.
Seventh Race
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1. Miss Blarney Stone 2. Sweet Corredor 3. Nedjma
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MISS BLARNEY STONE and SWEET CORREDOR were toward the rear of field in their June 17 meeting, and rallied to finish half-length apart after some traffic through sharp final quarter. That was the first start of the year and first in U.S. for Miss Blarney Stone, so it may be noteworthy she imroved markedly in second start of 2006. Sweet Corredor has come back from long absence to run her two best races at this meet, and looms main obstacle to the choice again. NEDJMA was nine miles behind after stumbling at start of initial allowance, and was rapidly gaining through deep stretch; two deep-closing efforts at 1 1/8 miles suggest she may have lots to do through final stages of this shorter race.
Eighth Race
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1. Shakis 2. Sunriver 3. Fishy Advice
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The late-blooming SHAKIS has flourished on Lasix in two U.S. starts, flying home through a 34-second last three-eighths to beat INTERPATATION on May 25, and returning on short rest to miss in a blanket finish in the Manhattan to two multiple Grade 1 winners; has had five weeks' spacing to this, main question is whether he can kick home as strongly at 1 3/8 miles. As discouraging as SUNRIVER's race in the Schaeffer was at Pimlico behind Flashy Bull, that's how promising his first start on turf was, when he rated kindly and ran away from graded stakes winner SILVER WHISTLE in the stretch; not going to catch anyone by surprise this time, but Peter Pan win shows he needn't lead early to be effective. FISHY ADVICE comes off a course-record win at Monmouth, and is just a neck and a head shy of a seven-race win streak dating back to November of 2005; handles any pace scenario, and has handled DREADNAUGHT on a couple of occasions in the past - though not at this trip.
Ninth Race
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1. Kats Golden Ways 2. Heavenly Anna 3. Karakorum Elektra
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KATS GOLDEN WAYS was going welll too late in sprint return, then raced in traffic and steadied in the stretch second time back; should be set now. HEAVENLY ANNA decisioned the top pick when second best to even-money Jesse's Justice under these conditions; last win came the last time Bejarano was aboard last summer. KARAKORUM ELEKTRA figures close with the top pair based on maiden win first time on the grass; may revert to rating tactics after weakening on the front-end in first allowance.
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Calder
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
3 SHOW ME MONEY is stepping up with blinkers added after recovering from a slow start to finish second vs. $12.5K maidens on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 2 CONCEDE has his maiden tag sliced in half, and races with blinkers, after failing to fire in a 'key' $32K maiden test that produced three next-out winners. 5 DON RAFA, who finds an ideal spot to start his career, may have signaled his intentions with a solid 3-furlong gate work on July 12.
3-2-5
Race 2 -
1 TWICEASBEAUTIFUL will face winners after a visually impressive maiden turf victory at the distance in which she dueled early and drew away late. 4 CAJULENA, a 6-time winner, is back on the turf after following a second place finish at this level on the grass with a good third place showing vs. similar on the main track. 3 AQUALINA hit the board for the third time on the local sod (3-1-0-2) when she rebounded from a troubled start (bumped, steadied) to finish third vs. first-level allowance runners at 7 1/2 furlongs on a 'good' turf. 2 TRIPPI'S DREAM will try the turf after following her $20K maiden victory with an even more impressive $16K 'two-lifetime' victory at seven-eighths of a mile on a 'fast' track.
1-4-3-2
Race 3 -
4 SEATTLE THUNDER is cutting back slightly to a mile & 70 yards after finishing second vs. this level of competition at a mile and a sixteenth on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 5 ARROW'S FLIGHT and 1 WOOD ALLEY are an uncoupled pair from trainer Bill White who merit serious consideration. The former, a son of Snuck In, stretches out after rallying late to finish third in consecutive sprints vs. $50K maidens while the latter, a son of Graeme Hall, makes his second start after a useful career debut at the distance in which he broke slowly and made a 3-wide move, before tiring to finish sixth behind Brave Bandito & The Red Storm. Note that leading trainer White has a 29% win average with horses making their second start.
4-5-1
Race 4 -
10 MS. WONDER WOMAN, 5 for 5 in the money on the Calder sod, including a third place finish behind repeat winner Silver Charades at this level and distance on Apr. 29, will try to beat the boys after failing to handle a wet track listed as 'good' in the $50K Sara's Success on May 26. 5 CHAMPAGNE BRUNCH is turning back to a mile after posting the best last-race speed figure when he edged away to defeat $16K optional claimers at 9 furlongs. 6 MYSTERY PROSPECT, 2 for 2 in the money on the turf vs. this caliber of competition during May, returns to the grass after walloping $25K 'three-lifetime' foes on the main track. 4 QUISTOPHER, 5 for 7 vs. similar on the lawn, hopes Mother Nature cooperates today after failing to finish the race when competing a sealed 'sloppy' track last out.
10-5-6-4
Race 5 -
2 TRUE WILL is a daughter of Yes It's True who is training sharply in preparation for her career debut. Trainer Ed Plesa Jr., 20% with his freshman runners, tabs Roimes Chirinos to ride. 5 KAREN'S BEAUTY is stretching out to five-eighths after finishing a useful fourth in her career debut at 4 1/2 furlongs. Trainer Tim Ritvo has Abdiel Toribio atop the daughter of Officer. 4 TOUGH BELLESA will be treated with Lasix after stalking the action and fading when she apparently bled during her career debut at this level and distance.
2-5-4
Race 6 -
3 RUBICON, a beautifully bred son of Dynaformer, faces winners on the turf after following his second place finish vs. special weight competition on the turf with a 'much the best' maiden win on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 8 KING CASSIA, a 6-time winner on the Calder turf - which is 2 more local turf victories than the rest of the field has combined - returns to the grass after showing speed and fading late in a pair vs. similar on the main track. 12 TUPI will be outfitted with blinkers after getting beat a neck in a 'key' $16K optional claimer that produced three next-out winners. 4 BIG ROYAL ELTISH is trying the turf again after rallying to finish second in a pair of claiming races contested on wet tracks listed as 'good'.
3-8-12-4
Race 7 -
3 SIR BRANDON gets the tepid call to notch his elusive second career victory after responding to a drop in competition with a second place finish at this level and distance. 4 HARDTOBEAT BOB is a late-striding type who merits respect after he rallied to earn a check in consecutive route races vs. this caliber of competition. 2 TOMORROWS PICK will race without blinkers after stalking early and closing late to finish second vs. similar last out.
3-4-2
Race 8 -
9 AWESOME DREAMER is stretching out an additional half-furlong after recovering from a pinball start (bounced around) to finish second in her 5 1/2-furlong career debut. 7 CUTIE KITTY is stretching to 6 furlongs after rallying 3-wide to come within a neck of winning her 4 1/2-furlong career debut. 6 JAMACIAN GIRL is eligible to show more after shaking off the pitfalls associated with the tough inside post to finish third in her 4 1/2-furlong career debut. 3 BOND PRINCESS, a half to Grade 3 stakes-placed Papi Chullo, has trained sharply for her career debut. Trainer Tim Ritvo sweetens the deal with Lasix and leading jock Elvis Trujillo.
9-7-6-3
Race 9 -
1 SO IN LOVE and 5 QUIDNET are an uncoupled pair from trainer David Fawkes who should tickle your fancy. The former drops, and stretches out her best distance thus far (2-1-0-0), after showing speed and fading vs. better in consecutive sprints. Leading jock Elvis Trujillo gets the mount as Sally Mitchellhill moves to Quidnet. The daughter of Fabulous Frolic turns back after finishing fifth, as the lukewarm favorite, in a 'key' 7-furlong affair that produced next-out winners Where'smynotebook & Soweto. 3 RHAPSODY IN PURPLE drops, and shortens up to 6 1/2 furlongs, after showing speed and fading vs. $16K 'two-lifetime' claimers at seven-eighths of a mile.
1-5-3
Race 10 -
6 EXCELLENT JOB will try to get back to his winning ways after finishing first in two races in a row - being disqualified from one - and finishing second at this distance on a sealed 'sloppy' track last out. The consistent son of Halo's Image is reunited with jockey Jose Lopez. 4 DOC TOUR will try $16K optional claimers after posting three consecutive victories vs. conditioned claimers. It's impossible to knock his affinity for the winner's circle. 5 HOLIDAY MOMENT is stepping up the competition after drawing clear to defeat $8K claimers at the distance by almost 9 lengths.
6-4-5
Race 11 -
6 A SPLASH OF CLASS drops, and turns back to 8 furlongs, after disputing the pace and tiring to finish third vs. 32K maidens in a mile and a sixteenth affair moved to a fast main track. 5 BARBS BEST is stretching out around 2-turns after rallying to finish third & second, respectively, vs. similar quality at 7 furlongs. Trainer Sue Richardson has Manny Aguilar in the irons again. 2 LEVY LIGHT, third at the distance on May 17, stretches out after stalking the pace and fading to finish a distant third vs. $20K maidens at 6 furlongs on a sealed 'sloppy' track.
BEST BET: RACE 8 - AWESOME DREAMER
LONG SHOT: RACE 4 - MERCURIUS
6-5-2
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TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Lone Star for Sunday July 15, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Lone Star
Lone Star - Race #1 - Post: 1:35pm
Rating: 4
Choice Plays:
#5 CAMPINOUT (ML=5/2)
#2 ZONE STOPPER (ML=3/1)
CAMPINOUT - If you review the PP's for this animal, you'll see he has recorded the top speed rating at the distance and surface. A repeat race in this field and this horse has a superb chance to win. Shepherd should have him moving strong on the turn. Look for this gelding to run much better in today's race. Last race at Louisiana Downs finishing seventh on the soft turf is no sign of his true talent. ZONE STOPPER - Great average class rating on this horse. Should have the power to run well on the turf. This horse recorded a nice rating of 92 in his last event. That speed figure should be good enough to win in today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SUMMER STEPPER (ML=2/1), #4 AFTERNOON PUNCH (ML=5/1), #3 CROOK'S LAD (ML=6/1)
SUMMER STEPPER - Hasn't been on the Lone Star oval in the last few weeks. Cause for some concern. Quite unimpressive fig last time around the track at Lone Star at 1 1/16 miles. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much today. AFTERNOON PUNCH - This gelding is always around, but just doesn't get the job done. Hard to bet on him on the top end. Common speed rating last time out at Lone Star at 1 mile. Don't feel this steed will improve too much in today's event. CROOK'S LAD - Will not be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #5 CAMPINOUT to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5]
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Big Al Mcmordie
The Brewers begin the second half with a lot of promise and a great offense, but also questions surrounding their pitching. Last year's best starter (arguably), lefthander Chris Capuano, is in a complete funk right now and the Brewers may have to decide soon whether to put him back on the DL or keep putting him out on the mound every 5 days hoping that he will work out whatever the problem is. This year's stud, Ben Sheets left Saturday's game with a finger injury and the bullpen, including closer Francisco Cordero, has been a little shaky lately. But the Brewers still have a lot of confidence from their veterans like tonight's starter righthander Jeff Suppan. Suppan has certainly been in a pennant chase before having been on the Cardinals the past 3 years. And although Suppan's numbers are not spectacular this season, he is a clutch performer, especially at home in Miller Park, where he has a 5-2 record and 4.26 ERA. Rockies righthander Aaron Cook has been getting hit lately. A lot. In his last five starts covering 32 1/3 innings, Cook has given up 45 hits to opposing batters. Milwaukee has won three of Suppan's last four starts and although he has not faced the Rockies this year as a member of the Brew Crew, he won all three of his starts against them last year when he was with the Cards. Colorado is 4-12 in the last sixteen meetings. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
MADDUX SPORTS
Chicago Cubs -135
HONDO
July 15, 2007 -- Hondo would like to apologize to the baseball gods for whatever it was he did. It'll never happen again. Mr. Aitch plunged deeper into red ink last night when he took a big fat oh-fer-four with the As tros, Jays, Nats and Pods to put the ugly number at 750 niedenfuers.
Today, he's woofing it up with McCarthy and the Rangers. Ten units.
Today, he's woofing it up with McCarthy and the Rangers. Ten units.
BLACK MAGIC SPORT
Arizona -152
(Listing Webb)
Brandon Webb is the Ace on this staff and he is pitching like it with a 3.37 ERA on the season. Webb has picked up right where he left off from last year’s NL Cy Young status. The Diamondbacks are 7-2 in Webb’s last 9 home starts against San Diego. The Padres are batting .223 over their last 10 games and Webb will have no problem shutting this slumping line-up down tonight. Arizona is 4-0 in their last 4 home games against San Diego. The Padres are 0-5 in Justin Germano's last 5 starts vs. the National League West Division. The Diamondbacks are 6-1 in Webb's last 7 starts vs. the National League West Divison. Arizona is 51-23 in their last 74 meetings with San Diego. They have the Padres’ number. Cash in with Arizona Sunday night.
BLACK WIDOW SPORTS
Florida -157
(List Olsen)
Jason Simontacchi will get lit up today when he faces this dangerous Florida line-up. Simontacchi is 6-6 with a 6.11 ERA on the season and Florida hitters are drooling over the opportunity to face this guy. The Marlins are 4-1 in Scott Olsen's last 5 home starts. The Marlins are 9-4 in Olsen's last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Florida hasn’t been the best of teams at home, but they are far good enough to surpass the Nationals in this contest. The Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 home meetings with Washington. Take Florida.
INFO PLAYS
3* on Atlanta -150
(Listing Carlyle)
Atlanta has won 4 out of 5 against Pittsburgh this season and they will be coming out on top again today. Buddy Carlyle is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. He is in a groove and will excel against this Pittsburgh team that doesn’t produce many runs. The Pirates are hitting a mere .246 on the road this year. Atlanta is 24-7 in their last 31 home games against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is 2-8 in their last 10 road games. The Pirates are 3-12 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Braves are 16-3 in their last 19 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Atlanta.
LOCKSMITH SPORTS
LA Angels -1.5 +105 (listing Weaver)
Texas is terrible against AL West opponents at just 8-17 this season while the Angels are handling their business by recording a 17-9 divisional mark. The Angels are 8-3 against Texas this season and 4-0 against Texas at home this season with Saturday's matchup pending. LA is an incredible 18-5 against the Rangers at home over the last 3 seasons. Weaver clearly gives the best team in the west the advantage here today.
PRICELESS PICKS
Philadelphia -121 (listing Eaton)
Eaton is 15-4 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) since 1997. He is 13-1 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons and 30-16 against the money line in day games since 1997. The Phillies are 25-9 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Eaton is our guy today. Take the Phillies.