7/17 Analysis

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It is rare for me to have some many games on one card have their intrinsic value deviate from their market price compared to today’s card. Hopefully that is a good thing. Here are three of the eight or nine underdogs that I will have positions on.



Tigers +122
It seems that the Twins have their supporters back after coming back from the all star break with a four game home sweep. However, I would be weary of putting too much stock in their last series, as it was against a team currently playing worse than any other team in the league right now; and they really didn’t win in convincing fashion. After opening up as an underdog against Floyd, it appears that people are finally willing to back Garza after he was able to back up his words with a dominant showing in his first start of the year. However, I would be weary of putting too much stock in Garza as that was a start in the second game of a doubleheader following up a thirty plus run game that was a product of tired bats for the White Sox in game two. Although there is no denying Garza’s “stuff” is the makeup of a big league pitcher, I am not quite sure if he is mentally or (experience wise) ready for a Tigers lineup, which is unequivocally the best road lineup in the league. Nerves got the best of Garza in his home debut last year, and really didn’t show he was ready for the better lineups in the league. His continued struggles against right handed hitters makes him vulnerable to a well balanced lineup like the Tigers. His power pitching style and monitored pitch count does not make him a likely candidate to go deep into this game. Although the Twins have a deep bullpen which holds a decisive advantage over the Tigers pen, with Rincon’s struggles that have pushed back front end pitchers to later innings, the Twins are no longer as strong in the front end to back up a pitcher not likely to eat many innings. The Tigers have not experienced much of a slowdown at the plate coming out of the break, scoring 21 runs in their last three games. The Twins lack of punch at the plate will make them dependent on solid pitching in order to hang with this Tigers team- a variable that is a huge question mark with Garza on the mound.

Robertson has been a big disappointment this year. However, his struggles appear to be fully factored into today’s line, and is not a struggling pitcher that holds as much risk as most, as he is backed by the best lineup in the league. Robertson has shown some improvement in his last two outings, as he allowed less than a hit per inning in those two starts against potent Indians and Red Sox lineups. Although lacking impressive career numbers against the Twins, Robertson in fact dominated them last year, and put forth a solid outing in his only start against them this year. In fact, there is not a pitcher in the league that has dominated the combination of Mauer and Morneau more than Robertson, as they come into today’s game a combined six for 40 against him. The eight day lay off should do Robertson’s tired arm some good, and help improve his command that has suffered because of it. So should the notion of the Twins only having 22 home runs against southpaws this year and just one starter hitting over .300 against such a pitcher. He has shown some career success pitching indoors.
 

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Giants +134
It is not very likely in which you will see trends consisting of a hot public favorite team, an aging and anemic hitting team that is currently in a downward spiral and backed by the most underachieving pitcher in baseball not fully factored in the line. There comes a point in which one has to take the position possessing all the negatives, and at this current price, the Giants appear to be that team. Although I am not surprised to see Zito having a year well below what was expected of him, expect him to improve off his current numbers that seem to be holding a lot of stock into the current market price. Zito has been known as an improving second half pitcher. His first half woes had a lot to do with a lack of command and high walk total, products of being overworked and simply trying to hard- two variables that that may be improved by the long layoff, the notion that the Giants have finally capitulated, and going up against a not so terribly patient lineup. During Zito’s disappointing season, he has quietly been pitching to right handed hitters as efficiently as he has in a while, an asset you want to possess going up against a Cubs lineup loaded from the right side. Past domination against the only two starters with over ten at bats against him should also give him a confidence boost he is in dire need of. There is no denying that the Cubs lineup is as hot as it has been all season. That said, the recipe to cool down their lineup is giving throwing two variables that they have not faired terribly well against all season- southpaws and finesse pitchers, which is exactly what Zito is.

I still don’t understand the strategy of putting Marshall behind Hill in the rotation, but that may partially be the cause of his recent slowdown. Another reason for his recent regression is simply lacking the tangibles to keep his current rate sustained. The elusive first pitch strike that plagued him in the minors and last year had improved when called up. Since then it has regressed, forcing him to fall behind counts and making his curveball less effective. There was not a team in the league that gave him more problems than the Giants last year, as their veteran hitters utilized a patient approach that took advantage of his lack of command. Past success against a pitcher and a high walk propensity are two key variables that a struggling lineup needs to get their confidence back at the plate. The Cubs recent success finally has caught up to their line.
 

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Cardinals +112
Until Vanden Hurk can translate his dominant pitches into effectiveness on the mound, setting him as a favorite at the big league level is quite suspect in my opinion. Getting called up for the third time may do the trick, but unless his command improves, any big league lineup will continue to give him a lot of problems. Being a notorious flyball pitcher that allows a lot of walks and pitching in a hitter’s park are not ideal variables to possess, as it can quickly turn walks into two run home runs. Nerves have also shown to get the better of him, as his dominant minor league stats compared to the majors, and his inability to find the strike zone at home has shown to be problems as well. The Cardinals have been swinging the bat well in their last two games, as they are determined to make a second half push. Backed by a suspect and inconsistent bullpen should give the Cardinals scoring opportunities throughout this game.

Thompson has been hit or miss, but his potential and putting forth three good starts in a row appear not to be fully recognized by the current line. Readjusting back to the starting rotation sometimes takes time for a young pitcher, as it was the case for Wainwright as well. Thompson’s recent improvements out of the starting rotation should be signs of things to come. He has a premier sinkerball to keep a power lineup like the Marlins at bay. Part of Thompson’s struggles this year have stemmed from being dominated by left handed bats, as his sinkerball that he heavily relies on has been dominated by such hitters. Facing probably the most anemic lineup in the NL from the left side should offset this deficiency. Facing an aggressive lineup that compliments his pitch for contact style should also help him out. Backed by the deeper and better bullpen should put pressure on the Marlins to get to him, otherwise, this favorite may have a hard time winning this game.
 

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That is some of the most thorough and best insight I have seen yet on this site. Thanks Buff
 

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Interesting ... my list for the day includes 8 Dogs, 3 of which are the one's you wrote about above. The rest of my list is as follows:

Nats: +110
Reds: +125
Blue Jays: +110
Devil Rays: +105
Orioles: +140

The numbers I got on the Tigers (+110), Giants (+120), and Cardinals (+105) aren't as good as the numbers you have. I did, however, find your numbers at Matchbook. Unfortunately, I presently am without an account at the latter ... will rectify that soon.

Thanks once again for your cogent analysis. You are without peer.
 

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how about the rangers and the blue jays, two teams i seem to be on everyday, are they on your list of 8 or 9 underdogs?
 

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how about the rangers and the blue jays, two teams i seem to be on everyday, are they on your list of 8 or 9 underdogs?
Rangers yes, Blue Jays no. I actually think the Yankees are slighly undervalued, but no enough to warrant a play.
Good luck.
 

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