Larry Ness
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Devil Rays Jul 18 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Reason: The Angels must still be considered one of MLB's top clubs but the team sure hasn't played like it lately. The Angels are 6-10 in their last 16 games, after last night's 8-3 loss at Tampa, where they went 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position! They haven't homered in 10 straight games, a span of 96 innings. The drought is the franchise's longest since an 11-game stretch without a home run July 7-21, 1991. LA tries to avoid a second straight loss to the last-place Devil Rays but the matchups hardly favor the Angels. Bartolo Colon may well be 9-1 with a 3.31 ERA in 16 career starts against Tampa Bay but he hardly looks like much of a pitcher these days. Over his last eight starts, he's allowed 68 hits and 41 ERs in 40.2 innings, for a 9.07 ERA. In his last start, he only made it through two innings at Yankee Stadium on July 6, allowing seven runs and seven hits. That was the second time in four starts that he surrendered seven runs. Facing LA will be Scott Kazmir, who hopes to build on one of his best starts of the season. The left-hander limited the Yankees to one unearned run and four hits over six innings of a 6-4 victory on Friday (beating Clemens). He walked four and struck out seven in his first home win since July 3, 2006, after going 0-4 in his 14 previous starts at Tropicana Field. While Kazmir hasn't gotten many wins, Tampa Bay is a vastly different team with him on the mound. Since the beginning of 2006, the Devil Rays are 24-20 (.545) in games started by Kazmir and just 73-137 (.348) in games he hasn't started. Think he makes a difference?
Oddsmaker's Error
TB Devil Rays
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: New York Mets at San Diego Padres Jul 18 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: New York Mets
Reason: John Maine (10-5, 2.91 ERA) had a four-start winning streak snapped in his last outing, allowing seven runs (four earned) in 4.2 innings as the Mets lost 8-4 at home to Cincinnati last Friday. However, he ranks in the NL's top five in wins, ERA and opponents' batting average (.217). He is also second in the league with a 2.25 ERA on the road (just 38 hits allowed in 60 innings!), where he is 7-1 in nine starts (team is 8-1). Meanwhile, SD's Greg Maddux has allowed 25 hits and 15 ERs in 15.1 innings over his last three starts (all losses), for an ERA of 8.80 (last two were here at Petco). Maddux hasn't lost more than three consecutive outings since a career-high five-start losing streak May 16-June 6, 1990, when he pitched for the Chicago Cubs. However, getting back on track will not be easy for Maddux as the Padres rank last in the majors with a .242 batting average and managed only three hits as they were shutout for the third time this season in a 7-0 loss to the Mets on Tuesday. The defeat was San Diego's fourth in the last six games and its eighth in 13 contests in July. As for the Mets, the shutout was the eighth for their staff, ranking second in the NL behind San Diego's 13. The Mets have a 2.38 team ERA since the All-Star break and Maine seems perfectly capable of shutting down the weak-hitting Padres in this one. Also note that the Mets are 16-7 (plus-$1,005) in night road games against righties, averaging 5.1 RPG.
MLB Bailout of the Week
15* NY Mets
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 18 2007 3:10PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason: The Phillies are the NL's top-hitting team and they POUNDED the Dodgers last night, 15-3. The 15 runs were a season high, as was the team's 26 hits (one shy of franchise record for a single game). Even pitcher JD Durbin got in the act with three hits. It's Getaway Day for the Phils here, as they head to SD tomorrow for the start of a four-game series, while the Dodgers await the arrival of the Mets (also for a four-game set). Philly will send rookie Kyle Kendrick who made his ML debut on June 13. Kendrick is 4-0 with a 3.82 ERA in his six starts this year (team is 5-1). He's typically gone six innings and allowed three runs, which has been more than enough, as the Phils have score 52 runs in his six outings, an average of 8.7 per game. My prediction is his good fortune has run out. It would be tough for any team to come right back with another offensive outburst off an explosion like last night and it's made even more difficult by short rest. LA will send out Chad Billingsley and the second-year pitcher has been very solid this year. He made 18 appearances last year (16 starts), going 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA (team was 9-7). He opened this year in the bulllpen (first 23 appearances this year) but his last five appearances have all been starts. He's 2-0 (team is 4-1) with a 3.51 ERA in those five starts, with just one poor effort (allowed five ERs in four innings at Arizona. That gives him a 2.08 ERA in his other four starts, plus he's 6-0 with a 3.26 ERA in all 28 appearances this year (has allowed only 48 hits in 60.2 innings). I expect Billingsley to quiet the 'tired' Philly bats in this one.
MLB Getaway Day Game of the Week
15* LA Dodgers
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Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Devil Rays Jul 18 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Reason: The Angels must still be considered one of MLB's top clubs but the team sure hasn't played like it lately. The Angels are 6-10 in their last 16 games, after last night's 8-3 loss at Tampa, where they went 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position! They haven't homered in 10 straight games, a span of 96 innings. The drought is the franchise's longest since an 11-game stretch without a home run July 7-21, 1991. LA tries to avoid a second straight loss to the last-place Devil Rays but the matchups hardly favor the Angels. Bartolo Colon may well be 9-1 with a 3.31 ERA in 16 career starts against Tampa Bay but he hardly looks like much of a pitcher these days. Over his last eight starts, he's allowed 68 hits and 41 ERs in 40.2 innings, for a 9.07 ERA. In his last start, he only made it through two innings at Yankee Stadium on July 6, allowing seven runs and seven hits. That was the second time in four starts that he surrendered seven runs. Facing LA will be Scott Kazmir, who hopes to build on one of his best starts of the season. The left-hander limited the Yankees to one unearned run and four hits over six innings of a 6-4 victory on Friday (beating Clemens). He walked four and struck out seven in his first home win since July 3, 2006, after going 0-4 in his 14 previous starts at Tropicana Field. While Kazmir hasn't gotten many wins, Tampa Bay is a vastly different team with him on the mound. Since the beginning of 2006, the Devil Rays are 24-20 (.545) in games started by Kazmir and just 73-137 (.348) in games he hasn't started. Think he makes a difference?
Oddsmaker's Error
TB Devil Rays
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: New York Mets at San Diego Padres Jul 18 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: New York Mets
Reason: John Maine (10-5, 2.91 ERA) had a four-start winning streak snapped in his last outing, allowing seven runs (four earned) in 4.2 innings as the Mets lost 8-4 at home to Cincinnati last Friday. However, he ranks in the NL's top five in wins, ERA and opponents' batting average (.217). He is also second in the league with a 2.25 ERA on the road (just 38 hits allowed in 60 innings!), where he is 7-1 in nine starts (team is 8-1). Meanwhile, SD's Greg Maddux has allowed 25 hits and 15 ERs in 15.1 innings over his last three starts (all losses), for an ERA of 8.80 (last two were here at Petco). Maddux hasn't lost more than three consecutive outings since a career-high five-start losing streak May 16-June 6, 1990, when he pitched for the Chicago Cubs. However, getting back on track will not be easy for Maddux as the Padres rank last in the majors with a .242 batting average and managed only three hits as they were shutout for the third time this season in a 7-0 loss to the Mets on Tuesday. The defeat was San Diego's fourth in the last six games and its eighth in 13 contests in July. As for the Mets, the shutout was the eighth for their staff, ranking second in the NL behind San Diego's 13. The Mets have a 2.38 team ERA since the All-Star break and Maine seems perfectly capable of shutting down the weak-hitting Padres in this one. Also note that the Mets are 16-7 (plus-$1,005) in night road games against righties, averaging 5.1 RPG.
MLB Bailout of the Week
15* NY Mets
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 18 2007 3:10PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason: The Phillies are the NL's top-hitting team and they POUNDED the Dodgers last night, 15-3. The 15 runs were a season high, as was the team's 26 hits (one shy of franchise record for a single game). Even pitcher JD Durbin got in the act with three hits. It's Getaway Day for the Phils here, as they head to SD tomorrow for the start of a four-game series, while the Dodgers await the arrival of the Mets (also for a four-game set). Philly will send rookie Kyle Kendrick who made his ML debut on June 13. Kendrick is 4-0 with a 3.82 ERA in his six starts this year (team is 5-1). He's typically gone six innings and allowed three runs, which has been more than enough, as the Phils have score 52 runs in his six outings, an average of 8.7 per game. My prediction is his good fortune has run out. It would be tough for any team to come right back with another offensive outburst off an explosion like last night and it's made even more difficult by short rest. LA will send out Chad Billingsley and the second-year pitcher has been very solid this year. He made 18 appearances last year (16 starts), going 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA (team was 9-7). He opened this year in the bulllpen (first 23 appearances this year) but his last five appearances have all been starts. He's 2-0 (team is 4-1) with a 3.51 ERA in those five starts, with just one poor effort (allowed five ERs in four innings at Arizona. That gives him a 2.08 ERA in his other four starts, plus he's 6-0 with a 3.26 ERA in all 28 appearances this year (has allowed only 48 hits in 60.2 innings). I expect Billingsley to quiet the 'tired' Philly bats in this one.
MLB Getaway Day Game of the Week
15* LA Dodgers
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