7/19 Analysis

Tigers -122
No denying that the Twins are one of the harder teams to sweep at home; however, if a road team were to do it, it would be the Tigers. After winning the two harder games, the Tigers now have a good fundamental match up to seal the deal. It was only a matter of time in which Bonderman’s overpowering arsenal of pitchers would translate to being one of the most dominant pitchers in the game, and it appears that time has finally come. He has put forth four quality starts in a row, including one against the Twins earlier in the month. There is no fundamental reason for his unimpressive career totals against the Twins, and in fact, he has shown that those numbers clearly lack sustainability by putting forth five quality starts in his last six tries against them. His improved changeup has been fooling left handed bats this season, making him a force against both right handers and left handed hitters this year, which was something that he was unable to attain in past seasons. In fact, he has been one of the most overpowering right handers against left handed hitters this year, which does not bode well for a Twins lineup whose two best hitters bat from the left side. Hunters most likely absence in today’s lineup should prove costly, as there is not a hitter on the team with more past success against Bonderman than he has. Bondermans efficiency allows him to work deep into games and avoid the Tigers suspect bullpen better than any other starter on the team. The Twins have not looked terribly effective at the plate since the break against pitchers that possess nowhere near the dominance that Bonderman does.

The Tigers best road hitting lineup will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they would like to avenge Bakers dominant performance against them at home. After facing Garza and Santana, don’t expect Baker’s stuff to overwhelm this lineup. Baker is a hit or miss pitcher whose inconsistency can quickly end a game. Until he shows that he can be somewhat effective against the left handed hitters that he faces, expect a lot of this bad starts to remain in Baker’s resume, especially when playing against a lineup that is loaded from the left side. Although he was able to dominate the Tigers in his only outing against them this season, the sustainability is clearly not their, as the Tigers showed no problem dominating him last season, and fundamentally match up well against his style. Baker continues to show more vulnerability pitching at home, where his fly ball propensity is less forgiving. The Tigers have the power spread around the lineup to capitalize on his style any given inning. 17 home runs allowed in less than 100 career innings of work at home will simply not cut it against the Tigers and Bonderman. Backed by a solid bullpen, yet a bullpen in which the Tigers have gotten a good look at the last couple of games. In my opinion, the Tigers are slightly undervalued with their current market price.

Phillies +118
Young is no longer flying under the public radar, and what was once an undiscovered gem has quickly become a public darling. However, in reality, as far as quality of pitching goes, their really isn’t much of a disparity between these starting pitchers on the mound today. Both being notorious flyball pitchers, Young has been helped out by the spacious home park in which he pitches in, while Hammels home park has been counter effective to his pitching style. Being an NL West pitcher also allows Young to pitch against a lot of weak hitting lineups that can not take advantage of his style of pitching, which also can not be said for Hammels. Don’t be surprised if Young finally comes back to earth in this game, as not only do the Phillies have the power spread around the lineup to get those flyballs up, but they also have the speed on the basepaths to take advantage of Young being the worst pitcher in the league in holding runners on base. Although Young was able to overcome this deficiency earlier this month against the Dodgers, there is no denying that speed on the basepaths takes its toll on Young mentally and physically, and it is only a matter of time in which it should result in runs. Young’s last deficiency (albeit improved) can also be capitalized by the Phillies lineup, as his bouts of wildness can be magnified against one of the more patient lineups in the league.


Put Hammels in Petco and against NL West lineups in half his starts, and he would have Cy Young caliber numbers as well. Today he will have a good chance of showcasing his talent as he pitches against a lineup and inside a park that fundamentally compliment his pitching style. Hammels has been vulnerable against right handed power hitters, something in which the Padres lack. Being loaded from the left side could be a problem against a southpaw who is hard to pick up for left handed batters. Hammels change up and pitch disparity prove to be a timing issue for lineups that have not seen a lot of him. Having only faced him once in his career could be a problem for the Padres, especially during their first go around, which should help Hammel’s recent struggles first time through the opponent’s lineup. Hammels gives the Phillies the best chance of avoiding their suspect bullpen, which has gotten a bit deeper with the return of Gordon.

Thanks for posting. I hate betting on the Phillies but you brought up some excellent points.

your the man bg!