Plays from IntelliTipster 7/16 to 7/22

Bookie Buster · Jul 19, 2007

Plays from IntelliTipster 5/21 To 7/08:

Play from 5/21-5/27

5/21: 5-3 +180
5/22: 7-9 -208
5/23: 6-9 -371
5/24: 5-4 +89
5/25: 5-9 -724
5/26: 7-7 -65
5/27: 12-3 +859
________________
47-44 -240

Plays from 5/28- 6/03

5/28: 7-5 +48
5/29: 7-8 -216
5/30: 7-8 -325
5/31: 4-5 -306
6/01: 6-7 -121
6/02: 7-8 -142
6/03: 9-6 +194
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47-47 -868

Plays from 6/03- 6/10

6/04: 5-4 -45
6/05: 10-6 +271
6/06: 8-7 -234
6/07: 6-6 -158
6/08: 9-6 +94
6/09: 3-12 -1410
6/10: 9-6 +343
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50-47 -1139

Plays from 6/11 To 6/17

6/11: 3-2 +50
6/12: 13-2 +1177
6/13: 6-9 -491
6/14: 7-4 +386
6/15: 7-8 -455
6/16: 7-8 -236
6/17: 7-8 -268
_________________
50-41 +163

Plays from 6/18 To 6/24
6/18: 7-3 +293
6/19: 3-11 -1135
6/20: 7-8 -232
6/21: 3-2 +156
6/22: 7-8 -226
6/23: 7-8 +27
6/24: 9-5 +389
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43-45 -728

Plays from IntelliTipster 6/25 to 7/1
6/25: 7-4 -37
6/26: 8-6 +80
6/27: 7-7 +14
6/28: 5-3 +248
6/29: 9-6 +234
6/30: 7-6 -70
7/01: 4-11 -851
____________________
47-43 -382

Plays from IntelliTipster 7/02 to 7/08
7/02: 7-6 +86
7/03: 9-5 +340
7/04: 6-9 -346
7/05: 6-7 -254
7/06: 10-6 +299
7/07: 7-8 +195
7/08: 9-6 +332
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54-47 +652

Plays from IntelliTipster 7/09 to 7/15
7/13: 8-7 -151
7/14: 9-6 +165
7/15: 8-7 -201
______________
25-20 -187

OVERALL RECORD:

80%^ 7-8 -462
70%^ 89-65 -11
60%^ 179-160 -752
B 59% 160-162 -2081
___________________
435-395 -$3306

BASED ON A $100 BETTOR

Plays from IntelliTipster 7/16 to 7/22

RECORD FOR 7/16: 9-4 +373
RECORD FOR 7/17: 4-10 -990
RECORD FOR 7/18: 7-7 -4

Bookie Buster · Jul 19, 2007

Plays for 7/19

Lines Bodog:

968 new york yankees 75/ -240

955 cincinnati reds 71/ +145
____________________________

974 texas rangers 68/ +142

971 chicago white sox 66/ +175

966 tampa bay devil rays 66/ +155

954 chicago cubs 60/ -174
_______________________________

952 milwaukee brewers 57/ -177

962 san diego padres 57/ -126

969 detroit tigers 57/ -128

964 los angeles dodgers 56/ -130

959 st. louis cardinals 52/ +165
________________________________
957 Col at 958 Wash 50/50

Bookie Buster · Jul 20, 2007

Recap 7/19

Bookie Buster said:
Lines Bodog:

968 new york yankees 75/ -240 L -240

955 cincinnati reds 71/ +145 W +145

1-1 -95
____________________________

974 texas rangers 68/ +142 L -100

971 chicago white sox 66/ +175 W +175

966 tampa bay devil rays 66/ +155 L -100

954 chicago cubs 60/ -174 W +100

2-2 +75
_______________________________

952 milwaukee brewers 57/ -177 W +100

962 san diego padres 57/ -126 W +100

969 detroit tigers 57/ -128 W +100

964 los angeles dodgers 56/ -130 L -130

959 st. louis cardinals 52/ +165 L -100

3-2 +70
________________________________
957 Col at 958 Wash 50/50

RRCORD FOR 7/19: 6-5 +50

OVERALL RECORD:

80%^ 7-8 -462
70%^ 90-66 -106
60%^ 181-162 -677
B 59% 163-164 -2011
___________________
441-400 -$3256

BASED ON A $100 BETTOR

Bookie Buster · Jul 20, 2007

Plays for 7/20

Lines Bodog:

918 detroit tigers 70/ -175
_________________________

924 new york yankees 69/ -250

914 san diego padres 69/ -123

910 atlanta braves 66/ -140

922 toronto blue jays 63/ -102

906 washington nationals 64/ +127

912 milwaukee brewers 62/ -139

902 chicago cubs 60/ +111
______________________________

903 cincinnati reds 57/ +129

908 pittsburgh pirates 57/ +101

920 boston red sox 57/ -220

927 cleveland indians 54/ -132

915 new york mets 53/ -114

929 baltimore orioles 53/ -102

925 los angeles angels 52/ -129

Bookie Buster · Jul 21, 2007

Recap 7/20

Bookie Buster said:
Lines Bodog:

918 detroit tigers 70/ -175 L -175

0-1 -175
_________________________

924 new york yankees 69/ -250 L -250

914 san diego padres 69/ -123 L -123

910 atlanta braves 66/ -140 L -140

922 toronto blue jays 63/ -102 L -102

906 washington nationals 64/ +127 L -100

912 milwaukee brewers 62/ -139 L -139

902 chicago cubs 60/ +111 W +111

1-6 -743
______________________________

903 cincinnati reds 57/ +129 L -100

908 pittsburgh pirates 57/ +101 L -100

920 boston red sox 57/ -220 W +100

927 cleveland indians 54/ -132 W +100

915 new york mets 53/ -114 W +100

929 baltimore orioles 53/ -102 W +100

925 los angeles angels 52/ -129 L -129

4-3 +71

RECORD FOR 7/20: 5-10 -847

OVERALL RECORD:

80%^ 7-8 -462
70%^ 90-67 -281
60%^ 182-168 -1420
B 59% 167-167 -1940
___________________
446-410 -$4103

BASED ON A $100 BETTOR

Bookie Buster · Jul 21, 2007

Plays for 7/21

Lines Bodog:

952 chicago cubs 69/ -175

975 kansas city royals 67/ +220

968 new york yankees 64/ -230

970 new york yankees 64/ -180

979 cleveland indians 63/ -137

978 minnesota twins 62/ +100

960 milwaukee brewers 60/ -140

961 st. louis cardinals 60/ +115
_____________________________

955 new york mets 58/ +130

953 colorado rockies 57/ -125

965 philadelphia phillies 57/ +110

974 boston red sox 57/ -175

958 florida marlins 55/ -140

964 pittsburgh pirates 52/ -110

971 seattle mariners 52/ +100
___________________________

Balt at Oak 50/50 No Play

MattRain · Jul 21, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Balt at Oak 50/50 No Play

But Baltimore is +185 right now, which makes it huge value according to Intellitipster! No offense, but you should stop your "tracking" if you don't understand the first thing about moneylines. A lot of your plays are on the wrong side. I know you're not betting these, you've told me last time, but you should really learn about value betting and start tracking from scratch.

Bookie Buster · Jul 21, 2007

Matt Rain said:
But Baltimore is +185 right now, which makes it huge value according to Intellitipster! No offense, but you should stop your "tracking" if you don't understand the first thing about moneylines. A lot of your plays are on the wrong side. I know you're not betting these, you've told me last time, but you should really learn about value betting and start tracking from scratch.

Do you have the program?

And if you do you not see that the system puts out %'s for each game, now if you are so smart why don't you give use all a lesson on moneylines and value betting because any one in there right mind would look at this program and track it the same why that I am.

Here is a definition of from there own words:

What does outcome prediction accuracy (84%) mean?

Naturally, there's no means of knowing the future for sure, meaning that no prediction method would give you a 100% accuracy. However, IntelliTipster utilizes advanced forecasting techniques, which is why it is capable of making very accurate predictions, in some cases (for some leagues) it may reach 84%, meaning that outcomes of 8 matches out of 100 were predicted correctly. Since IntelliTipster produces outcome probabilities, the correct prediction is defined to be such that it has the highest probability for the correct outcome. As an example, let's assume that some match is predicted as 60%-30%-10% (home win - draw - away win) and it actually ends with a home win; in such a case the prediction has been correct, since the probability for the home win has been the highest of all three outcomes possible.

After reading this what does it have to do with value betting all I do here is post what the program spits out as far as %'s go and then track it based on the the varies levels of %'s.

I look forward to you lesson on this program and value betting of moneylines.

BB

Bookie Buster · Jul 21, 2007

All plays for 7/21

Date,Round,Home Team,Away Team,Home Win,Away Win

21.07.2007,110,San Diego,Philadelphia,43%,57%

21.07.2007,110,Oakland,Baltimore,50%,50%

21.07.2007,110,Texas,Cleveland,37%,63%

21.07.2007,110,Minnesota,LA Angels,62%,38%

21.07.2007,110,NY Yankees,Tampa Bay,64%,36%

21.07.2007,110,Florida,Cincinnati,55%,45%

21.07.2007,110,Pittsburgh,Houston,52%,48%

21.07.2007,110,Atlanta,St. Louis,40%,60%

21.07.2007,110,Detroit,Kansas City,33%,67%

21.07.2007,110,Boston,Chi. White Sox,57%,43%

21.07.2007,110,LA Dodgers,NY Mets,42%,58%

21.07.2007,110,Washington,Colorado,43%,57%

21.07.2007,110,Milwaukee,San Francisco,60%,40%

21.07.2007,110,Toronto,Seattle,48%,52%

21.07.2007,110,Chi. Cubs,Arizona,69%,31%

21.07.2007,110,NY Yankees,Tampa Bay,64%,36%

Here it is Matt Rain please tell me what I do not understand or anyone else I would like to learn.

This is how I will post everyday and I will track the plays with the highest % as the team to play, also I would like to now why a game with the prediction of 50% to 50% has value in this program, as far as I am consired it is giving you the prediction of % level of the team to win.

Matt Rain please teach me.

Now this means that we talk back and forth not you popin in an out every month with a sentence and then no feed back, this is a forum not a blog.

Leviathan · Jul 21, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Here it is Matt Rain please tell me what I do not understand or anyone else I would like to learn.

This is how I will post everyday and I will track the plays with the highest % as the team to play, also I would like to now why a game with the prediction of 50% to 50% has value in this program, as far as I am consired it is giving you the prediction of % level of the team to win.

I am not Matt Rain but I can try to explain this thing.

If we a have a match what is 50%-50% (let's assume the estimation is right and the estimation of the bookie is right) and bookie would offer 100% returnpercentage the odds would be +100 for both teams. If you would bet this match everytime so in long run your profit should be +-0. Of course bookie takes it's own and let's say in this situation the odds would be -105/-105 when in long run you would be losing everytime 4.6$ when your bet size would be 100$.

If we have again a match which is 50%-50% but the odds are -116/+106 then betting everytime a team which has odd +106 you would be winning 6$ in long run with every bet you will make with 100$ stake.

Here comes the math. It is easier to turn american odds to europian odds what happens for + odds as x is the american odd and y is the european odd: y=x+100 and for -odds y=(x+100)/x.

How we will turn percentages into the odds is 1/(%/100). So in 50%-50% situation the odds should be above 1/0.50=2.00 (=+100). So everything above that would be the value play and in Baltimore Oakland situation the value would be huge if this 50%-50% estimation would be right.

Calculating estimation odd/odd gives you the returnexpection (not sure if that is right word to say that in english) in Baltimore Oakland situation 2.85(=+185)/(1/0.50)=2.85/2.00=1.425 what should be 10/10 bet if you bet with x/10 stakes. Every returnexpection above 1.00 is value and every bet under 1.00 is a bad bet in theory.

The odds to the matches should be above these odds, if the odd for bet is under, it will likely lose in long run expecting the estimation is right-->

21.07.2007,110,San Diego,Philadelphia,43%,57% 1/0.43=2.32(+132) and 1/0.57=1.75(-134)

And the rest with same principle.

Of course there is many ways to bet matches but if you are betting according to the percentages, this is the best option imo. Hoping this explained something.

MattRain · Jul 21, 2007

First, sorry for sounding harsh. I actually enjoy your numerous contributions to this forum - this Intellitipster thing is interesting, and it'd be tremendous if someone less lazy than me could track the plays correctly.

Intellitipster's explanation is sort of confusing. I'm assuming that the program is simply forecasting at which % each team is supposed to win that particular matchup.

Let's take an extreme, unrealistic example. Intellitipster tells you that there's a 95% chance that the Yankees win tomorrow. Automatic bet on the Yankees then? As long as you don't lay more than 19-1 (-1900), yes. But if a bookie is crazy enough to hang a price of +2000 or better on TB, the correct value play is on TB.

Think about it. Going back to that 50% Baltimore forecast - if you could bet at +185 every night on a true 50-50 matchup, you could retire in a matter of months. In the long term, betting 1 unit per game, you'd average .85 units of profit every 2 bets (-1,+1.85,-1,+1.85,-1,+1.85). That's 42.5% ROI! Needless to say, if you could find such a goldmine, you'd wanna bet much larger than 1 unit a piece.

Hope that clears it up somehow.

Bookie Buster · Jul 21, 2007

Matt Rain,

In the definition they are saying when there is an outcome prediction of 50% that means the team has won 5 games out of 100, this is just stupid to me for that would be 5% not 50% show you see it is not as it appears. Yes you are right with the value of a play like that in the long run (maybe) this all goes back to the law of averages.

There program is not straightforward and most of the time it ends the day at 8-7 or 7-8 so it is a lossing program in the long run but I will track it till the end to see if we all can find some value in it.

Bookie Buster · Jul 22, 2007

Leviathan said:
I am not Matt Rain but I can try to explain this thing.

If we a have a match what is 50%-50% (let's assume the estimation is right and the estimation of the bookie is right) and bookie would offer 100% returnpercentage the odds would be +100 for both teams. If you would bet this match everytime so in long run your profit should be +-0. Of course bookie takes it's own and let's say in this situation the odds would be -105/-105 when in long run you would be losing everytime 4.6$ when your bet size would be 100$.

If we have again a match which is 50%-50% but the odds are -116/+106 then betting everytime a team which has odd +106 you would be winning 6$ in long run with every bet you will make with 100$ stake.

Here comes the math. It is easier to turn american odds to europian odds what happens for + odds as x is the american odd and y is the european odd: y=x+100 and for -odds y=(x+100)/x.

How we will turn percentages into the odds is 1/(%/100). So in 50%-50% situation the odds should be above 1/0.50=2.00 (=+100). So everything above that would be the value play and in Baltimore Oakland situation the value would be huge if this 50%-50% estimation would be right.

Calculating estimation odd/odd gives you the returnexpection (not sure if that is right word to say that in english) in Baltimore Oakland situation 2.85(=+185)/(1/0.50)=2.85/2.00=1.425 what should be 10/10 bet if you bet with x/10 stakes. Every returnexpection above 1.00 is value and every bet under 1.00 is a bad bet in theory.

The odds to the matches should be above these odds, if the odd for bet is under, it will likely lose in long run expecting the estimation is right-->

21.07.2007,110,San Diego,Philadelphia,43%,57% 1/0.43=2.32(+132) and 1/0.57=1.75(-134)

And the rest with same principle.

Of course there is many ways to bet matches but if you are betting according to the percentages, this is the best option imo. Hoping this explained something.

Yes you are right if that is how the program was picking the games but if is not just picking them on these % levels IMO I think they are marking these with % levels for the public but it is a bad way for them to project winners.

They need to explain there program more clearly.

Thanks,

BB

Bookie Buster · Jul 22, 2007

Leviathan said:
I am not Matt Rain but I can try to explain this thing.

If we a have a match what is 50%-50% (let's assume the estimation is right and the estimation of the bookie is right) and bookie would offer 100% returnpercentage the odds would be +100 for both teams. If you would bet this match everytime so in long run your profit should be +-0. Of course bookie takes it's own and let's say in this situation the odds would be -105/-105 when in long run you would be losing everytime 4.6$ when your bet size would be 100$.

If we have again a match which is 50%-50% but the odds are -116/+106 then betting everytime a team which has odd +106 you would be winning 6$ in long run with every bet you will make with 100$ stake.

Here comes the math. It is easier to turn american odds to europian odds what happens for + odds as x is the american odd and y is the european odd: y=x+100 and for -odds y=(x+100)/x.

How we will turn percentages into the odds is 1/(%/100). So in 50%-50% situation the odds should be above 1/0.50=2.00 (=+100). So everything above that would be the value play and in Baltimore Oakland situation the value would be huge if this 50%-50% estimation would be right.

Calculating estimation odd/odd gives you the returnexpection (not sure if that is right word to say that in english) in Baltimore Oakland situation 2.85(=+185)/(1/0.50)=2.85/2.00=1.425 what should be 10/10 bet if you bet with x/10 stakes. Every returnexpection above 1.00 is value and every bet under 1.00 is a bad bet in theory.

The odds to the matches should be above these odds, if the odd for bet is under, it will likely lose in long run expecting the estimation is right-->

21.07.2007,110,San Diego,Philadelphia,43%,57% 1/0.43=2.32(+132) and 1/0.57=1.75(-134)

And the rest with same principle.

Of course there is many ways to bet matches but if you are betting according to the percentages, this is the best option imo. Hoping this explained something.

Buddy the more I look at what you have here is very good info, I thinks that if we us the program projections with you math and play the games with a 20 point leeway that should pick a low number of games that will be winners. I will look into this today and maybe you can even help me with this as well.

thanks,

BB

Leviathan · Jul 22, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Buddy the more I look at what you have here is very good info, I thinks that if we us the program projections with you math and play the games with a 20 point leeway that should pick a low number of games that will be winners. I will look into this today and maybe you can even help me with this as well.

The games will not necessarily be the winners but should do some profit in the long run if the estimations are right. I have some time today so if you will post the percentages I can try to find the value from the odds according to these percentages.

Bookie Buster · Jul 22, 2007

Play for 7/22

Date,Round,Home Team,Away Team,Home Win,Away Win

22.07.2007,111,Detroit,Kansas City,71%,29%

22.07.2007,111,NY Yankees,Tampa Bay,69%,31%

22.07.2007,111,Florida,Cincinnati,62%,38%

22.07.2007,111,Toronto,Seattle,65%,35%

22.07.2007,111,Pittsburgh,Houston,47%,53%

22.07.2007,111,Washington,Colorado,48%,52%

22.07.2007,111,Milwaukee,San Francisco,51%,49%

22.07.2007,111,Boston,Chi. White Sox,65%,35%

22.07.2007,111,Minnesota,LA Angels,68%,32%

22.07.2007,111,Chi. Cubs,Arizona,55%,45%

22.07.2007,111,Oakland,Baltimore,59%,41%

22.07.2007,111,San Diego,Philadelphia,40%,60%

22.07.2007,111,LA Dodgers,NY Mets,62%,38%

22.07.2007,111,Atlanta,St. Louis,55%,45%

22.07.2007,111,Texas,Cleveland,60%,40%

Leviathan · Jul 22, 2007

I took the odds from Pinnacle =odd1frompercentage-odd2frompercentage/odd1fromP-odd2fromP returnexpectance

22.07.2007,111,Detroit,Kansas City,71%,29% = 1.40-3.44/1.61-2.54 1.14

22.07.2007,111,NY Yankees,Tampa Bay,69%,31% 1.44-3.22/1.56-2.68 1.08

22.07.2007,111,Florida,Cincinnati,62%,38% 1.61-2.63/1.89-2.04 1.17

22.07.2007,111,Toronto,Seattle,65%,35% 1.53-2.85/1.80-2.16 1.17

22.07.2007,111,Pittsburgh,Houston,47%,53% 2.12-1.88/1.92-2.00 1.06

22.07.2007,111,Washington,Colorado,48%,52% 2.08-1.92/2.06-1.87

22.07.2007,111,Milwaukee,San Francisco,51%,49% 1.96-2.04/1.78-2.20 1.07

22.07.2007,111,Boston,Chi. White Sox,65%,35% 1.53-2.85/1.70-2.33 1.11

22.07.2007,111,Minnesota,LA Angels,68%,32% 1.47-3.12/1.85-2.09 1.25

22.07.2007,111,Chi. Cubs,Arizona,55%,45% 1.81-2.22/1.65-2.45 1.10

22.07.2007,111,Oakland,Baltimore,59%,41% 1.69-2.42/1.87-2.07 1.10

22.07.2007,111,San Diego,Philadelphia,40%,60% 2.50-1.66/1.47-2.91 1.75

22.07.2007,111,LA Dodgers,NY Mets,62%,38% 1.61-2.63/2.19-1.78 1.36

22.07.2007,111,Atlanta,St. Louis,55%,45% 1.81-2.22/1.80-2.16

22.07.2007,111,Texas,Cleveland,60%,40% 1.66-2.50/2.22-1.76 1.33

You could use the Kelly criteria to maximize the bet size but there is so much "great bets" that there most likely is huge mistakes so in Kelly criteria you should use a big divider.

Obviously the best bet of the day according these percentages would be Philadelphia +191, it would be like the bet of the year.

Texas +122, LA Dodgers +119 and Minnesota -118 has also great odds, like the bets of the week or month but all in the same day.

Detroit, Florida, Toronto, Boston, Cubs and Oakland should be also great games according to this.

As far as I understand the oddsmakers will not make mistakes as this huge and if they will not all in one day. I think these percentages are taking too few variables in their estimation.

Bookie Buster · Jul 22, 2007

Leviathan,

Do you have the program?

If you do not go to the intellitipster website download the software for free for 30 days and then we can talk more about it.

Thanks,

BB

Leviathan · Jul 22, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Do you have the program?

Now I do have it, just downloaded.

Bookie Buster · Jul 22, 2007

Alright take a look at all the features and let me know what you make of it.

Plays from IntelliTipster 7/16 to 7/22

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