Tony Mathews
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics
Selection: Oakland Athletics -1.5 Runs (-105)
Explanation: We will side with the Oakland Athletics -1.5 Runs as they face-off against the Baltimore Orioles in Saturday's MLB contest.
Today the Baltimore Orioles will use starting pitcher Steve Trachsel. Steve Trachsel has struggled this season. In fact, Steve Trachsel has a 4.95 ERA on the season. In addition, Steve Trachsel has a 13.06 ERA in his last 3 starts. To say the least, this Oakland Athletics offense should be able to score many runs tonight.
On the other hand, the Oakland Athletics will use starting pitcher Danny Haren. Danny Haren has pitched well this season (10-3 with a 2.33 ERA). We expect another solid performance by Danny Haren tonight.
The Oakland Athletics are 39-15 in their last 54 meetings against the Baltimore Orioles, and we see the Oakland Athletics getting another blowout win tonight!
Take the Oakland Athletics -1.5 Runs
Hondo
July 21, 2007 -- Webb was a worldwide disaster yesterday for D'back backers, including Hondo, who saw his defi cit climb to 635 lonborgs with the loss at Wrigley.
Today, Mr. Aitch will play pin the tail on the Pitch ing Form - and the winner is the J's, Al Gore III's fa vorite team. Ten units.
Vegas Experts
Cincinnati Reds at Florida Marlins
Saturday, July 21st, 7:05 P.M. EDT
Doubtful either of these starters will intimidate these lineups. Livingston makes just his 4th career start vs. a lineup that scored 10 runs last night at home. Kim's home ERA is 6.42. CINCINNATI is 23-10 OVER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. FLORIDA is 17-4 OVER in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.
Play on: Over
Robert Ross
Cincinnati Reds at Florida Marlins
Saturday, July 21st, 7:05 P.M. EST EST
One-sided loss last night dropped the Reds to 10-5 under interim Manager Pete Mackanin. Don't think the Marlins have it in them to beat the Reds two straight. CINCINNATI is 26-19 against the money line in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. FLORIDA is 13-22 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
Good Luck. - Robert Ross
Play on: Cincinnati
Marc Lawrence
Tampa Bay DRays vs. New York Yankees
Play On: NY Yankees over Tampa Bay w/ Howell
Pinstripes, anxious to atone for last night 14-4 thumping against the Devil Rays, catch the perfect fodder in Tampa Bay's J.P. Howell. That's because Howell's staggering 12.34 ERA on the road is more than 10 runs per game higher than his home ERA (2.25) this season. With the D-Rays just 4-10 on Saturdays this season, look for the Yanks to silence the boo-birds here this evening
Alex Smart
Milwaukee Brewers (-136)
Sat Jul 21 '07 3:55p
The Milwaukee Bucks continue to run hot having won 5 of their L/7 games, and have owned this SF Giants team in the recent past having won 7 of the L/8 games in this series. With the Giants in bad current form having lost 7 of their L/9 overall and batting just .228 as a team in their L/10 overall it will be an easy decision to fade them again, no matter who they send to the hill to face the Brewers. Final notes & Key Trends:. The Brewers are 17-3 on home turf vs a National league team like the Giants with a .250 or less batting average on the season. Play on Milwaukee
Michael Cannon
Tampa Bay (+170) at NY YANKEES (Game 2)
Take Tampa Bay at a huge return in game two of their doubleheader with the Yankees.
The Devil Rays beat up on the Yankees last night, winning 14-4. The surprising aspect of that outcome was that it came with Edwin Jackson going against Mike Mussina. Jackson had entered the game with a 1-9 record on the year, so there’s no telling how bad the Devil Rays can hammer tonight’s starter, Matt DeSalvo.
I believe that the Devil Rays hold the slight advantage in the pitching matchup in this game. J.P. Howell will start for Tampa Bay and the left-hander is capable of putting up some decent numbers tonight. He’s 1-0 lifetime with a 2.08 ERA in two games vs. the Yanks and I think it will be harder for the aging pinstripes to get up for this game after playing the first game in the afternoon.
The Devil Rays have younger legs, so I don’t see it being a problem for them.
Take Tampa Bay at a huge return as they grab the win in Game 2 of the double-header.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Bobby Maxwell
Houston (-105) at PITTSBURGH
The Pirates are just 2-6 in Paul Maholm's last eight home starts and just 6-13 in his 19 starts this season. He's had horrible luck and just doesn't pitch well enough to keep Pittsburgh in this one tonight.
Maholm (5-12, 4.68 ERA) is going up against the Astros' Wandy Rodriguez (6-8, 4.33) in this battle of lefties. Rodriguez is 2-1 in his last three outings with a 3.26 ERA.
Rodriguez threw two shutouts just before the All-Star break, blanking the Rockies and Mets, but his first start of the second half was tough as he gave up seven runs on nine hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Cubs. He faced the Pirates back on April 26 and gave up three runs on five hits in seven innings of a 5-3 loss.
Maholm has given up three or more runs in seven of his last nine starts and the Pirates have lost six of his last nine. He's made five career starts against the Astros and has given up three or more runs four of the five outings.
The Astros are hitting .278 against lefties this season and should be able to get to Maholm for some runs tonight. Play Houston.
2♦ HOUSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
San Francisco (+125) at MILWAUKEE
Late day action today, and we are going with the underdog Giants to take another at Miller Park.
Last night San Francisco doubled up Milwaukee 8-4, and today they have the lights-out rookie Tim Lincecum on the mound to make his second start against the Brewers.
Lincecum's first start was a loss, as Milwaukee got to him for 6 runs in 4 innings, but this kid's stuff has been untouchable of late, as his last 19 innings have seen just 4 earned runs score for a 2-0 mark.
Dave Bush will counter and has been on a bit of a roll with 2 straight winning decisions, but we like the value Lincecum and the Giants bring to the table.
Play on San Fran in the dog role in this one.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Dave Cokin
(977) LA Angels
(978) MIN Twins
Take "(977) LA Angels"
Heckuva bounceback by the Twins Friday night coming off the disastrous set with Detroit. But I think the Twins are in tough tonight and expect the Halos to rebound with a solid win. Jered Weaver isn't flashing the form he enjoyed in his rookie campaign, but he's been decent enough for the Angels. Boof Bonser has the attractive K/IP ratio, but therein lies the problem for the Minnesota righty as he's presently much more of a thrower than a pitcher. I think he's tailor made for the Angels lineup and they absolutely lit him up earlier in Anaheim. More of the same tonight should pave the way for an Angels victory.
Jim Feist
(971) SEA Mariners
(972) TOR Blue Jays
Take "Over"
Just when you thought it was safe to bet on Jeff Weaver - you get pulled back in again!!! Weaver looked like he had righted a sinking ship and then he ran into Detroit in his last outing. The Tigers jumped all over the right-hander for 10 hits in just five innings. The loss dropped Weaver to 2-7 on the season with a 6.82 era. But it gets even uglier on the road where he is 0-4 with a 7.93 era.
We'd like to say Josh Towers of the Jays is having a much better season than Weaver, but we really wouldn't be saying much. Towers is just 3-6 on the year with a 5.29 era. Moreover, he didn't last much longer in his last outing than his counterpart; pitching just 5 2/3 innings and giving up nine hits and six earned runs.
Nope, this is the kind of game you take the OVER, sit back and watch the balls fly out of the park!!! GO OVER on Saturday.
Saturday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Friday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (2nd) Winter's Over, 8-1
(10th) Sweetbriar Academy, 8-1
Belmont Park (7th) Reyana's Jet, 5-1
(9th) For Gill, 5-1
Calder Race Course (4th) Lido Point, 4-1
(10th) Dream a Little Bit, 3-1
Canterbury Park (7th) Iron Boy, 7-2
(8th) Affection, 4-1
Charles Town (4th) Kulia, 3-1
(7th) Shes Appealing, 5-1
Colonial Downs (2nd) Struggler's Legend, 7-2
(4th) Peggy's Pride, 7-2
Del Mar (3rd) Forest Miss, 3-1
(4th) Yankee Bay, 7-2
Ellis Park (3rd) Surprise Me Not, 9-2
(10th) Laredo Lass, 4-1
Emerald Downs (2nd) Prince Smiley, 3-1
(8th) Sarah Mac, 3-1
Evangeline Downs (1st) Fast Kylie, 3-1
(2nd) Misty's Halo, 3-1
Finger Lakes (2nd) Atlantis Dream, 4-1
(6th) Lake Egri, 8-1
Hastings Park (1st) My Only Love, 5-1
(7th) Royal Sovereign, 3-1
Lone Star Park (7th) Buddha Lady, 6-1
(9th) True Man, 4-1
Louisiana Downs (6th) Albert's Gift, 3-1
(7th) Edna's Secret, 7-2
Monmouth Park (4th) Lily's Place, 7-2
(6th) Afleet Tiger, 3-1
Mountaineer (7th) Victory Moondance, 9-2
(8th) Marske, 7-2
Northlands (3rd) Smokester Horizon, 4-1
(7th) Bourbon Country, 8-1
Penn National (4th) Mordedor, 5-1
(9th) Sand King, 6-1
Prairie Meadows (5th) Andy's Annie, 5-1
(6th) Worththebother, 7-2
River Downs (7th) Prince Alexander, 6-1
(9th) Bold Move, 5-1
Thistledown (2nd) Dashfortheroses, 9-2
(6th) Gold Return, 7-2
Woodbine (3rd) Dance to My Tune, 7-2
(9th) Morning Prayers, 6-1
COACHING CLUB AMERICAN OAKS (G1), 8TH-BEL, $300,000, 3YO, F, 1 1/4M, 4:44 P.M. (EDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 COY COYOTE DICKINSON MICHAEL W JARA FERNANDO 121
2 HUMBLE JANET ASMUSSEN STEVEN M GARCIA A 121
3 WOW ME FREE JENKINS RODNEY CASTELLANO J J 121
4 ROSIE'S ATTITUDE BUSH THOMAS M BEJARANO R 121
5 OCTAVE PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 121
6 LEAR'S PRINCESS MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P COA E M 121
7 FOLK *SUROOR SAEED BIN LUZZI M J 121
Even with the defection of Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy), Saturday's Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) is turning into a one-horse affair. The 1 1/4-mile Belmont test drew a field of seven, but OCTAVE (Unbridled's Song) is clearly the best. The Todd Pletcher charge broke a five-race seconditis streak when taking the nine-furlong Mother Goose S. (G1) last out by a half-length, and looks poised to add a second Grade 1 to her record with this one. The gray miss has earned consecutive triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings for her past two starts, including a 104 figure for her Kentucky Oaks (G1) placing behind Rags to Riches, and will keep John Velazquez aboard for this race.
The main question about the CCA Oaks is not who will win, but who will run second. We're tabbing the lightly raced LEAR'S PRINCESS (Lear Fan) to fill that spot. The Kiaran McLaughlin-conditioned bay lass is undefeated from three career starts so far, breaking her maiden on Keeneland's Polytrack before taking an allowance and the Tweedside S. in her past two on Belmont's turf. She'll be making her dirt debut here, but has been working well over Saratoga's training track. Even though Lear's Princess is making her fourth career start in a Grade 1 test, this is a pretty weak field except for the top one and she could earn an easy placing. Eibar Coa has the call.
Godolphin's FOLK (Quiet American) is something of an enigma. The bay lass was a major force during the early part of the year, taking the U.A.E. One Thousand Guineas and U.A.E. Oaks at Nad al Sheba, but was obviously out of her depth when taking on the boys in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) last out. She finished a well-beaten 10th on that day nearly four months ago and hasn't been seen in competition since. Folk showed up on the Belmont Park worktab in late June, and broke her maiden by 10 1/4 front-running lengths at Aqueduct last November. She could relish the return to the filly ranks and challenge for it all, but we'll give her a race off the defeat and long break. Mike Luzzi will be aboard.
COY COYOTE (Honour and Glory) ended her juvenile season with a nice win in the Mazarine Breeders' Cup S. (Can-G3) at Woodbine in late September, and made her 2007 bow a second in Monmouth Park's Without Feathers S. last out. The Michael Dickinson trainee earned a 97 Speed rating for that start, which she probably needed after the layoff, as well as a 99 BRIS E2 Pace figure. Coy Coyote might complete the bottom of the gimmicks under Fernando Jara. HUMBLE JANET (Humble Eleven) was claimed in April by Steve Asmussen and has since captured an allowance at Churchill Downs and run second in the Iowa Oaks (G3). The bay three-year-old isn't in the same class as our top three, but she could earn a check.
Neither WOW ME FREE (Menifee) nor ROSIE'S ATTITUDE (Aptitude) appear fast enough to stay in touch with these.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-OCTAVE
2nd-LEAR'S PRINCESS
3rd-FOLK
VIRGINIA DERBY (G2), 9TH-CNL, $1,000,000, 3YO, 1 1/4MT, 5:44 P.M.(EDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 BLAZING DYNAMO TONER JAMES J DESORMEAUX K J 116
2 STRIKE A DEAL GOLDBERG ALAN E DOMINGUEZ RAMON 116
3 RED GIANT PLETCHER TODD A NO RIDER 116
4 CIRCULAR QUAY PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 118
5 INCA KING ASMUSSEN STEVEN M BRIDGMOHAN S X 120
6 SOLDIER'S DANCER VIVIAN DAVID A VELASQUEZ CORNELIO 118
7 DUVEEN ROMANS DALE PRADO E S 120
8 LOVE DUBAI MAKER MICHAEL J GUIDRY M 116
9 SUMMER DOLDRUMS VIOLETTE RICHARD JR LEZCANO JOSE 120
10 TOP CROSS PLETCHER TODD A DECARLO C P 116
CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch) will try turf for the first time in Saturday's $1 million Virginia Derby (G2) at Colonial Downs, and after hooking Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]) and Curlin (Smart Strike) in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S. (G1), the Todd Pletcher colt will view this as class relief. Judging by his pedigree, and especially by his encouraging works on the grass, he should handle the surface switch with aplomb. We think that he will follow in the footsteps of his stablemate Panty Raid (Include), who scored in the July 7 American Oaks Invitational S. (G1) in her turf debut.
Boasting by far the best resume in this group, Circular Quay was an impressive winner of the Hopeful S. (G1) as a juvenile as well as the Louisiana Derby (G2) earlier this season. The chestnut performed creditably in the Triple Crown without managing to hit the board. After rallying for a troubled sixth in the Run for the Roses, he crossed the wire in fifth at Pimlico, posting a career-best 106 BRIS Speed rating and a lofty 110 BRIS Late Pace figure. Circular Quay would be compromised by a lack of early pace, but with two uncoupled stablemates in tow here, we suspect that the fractions will be lively in this 1 1/4-mile test. He should produce his powerful late kick beneath Garrett Gomez, who will reunite with the colt for the first time since his runner-up effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).
DUVEEN (Horse Chestnut [SAf]) is another classy closer who would love to see a strong pace. Highly regarded by trainer Dale Romans, the dark bay got up in the last jump of the Palm Beach S. (G3) in his stakes debut, and next time out, he defeated a deep field in the Crown Royal American Turf S. (G3) on Kentucky Oaks Day. Duveen's most recent outing, a second to INCA KING (Sir Cat) in the Jefferson Cup S. (G2), is best ignored. While he endured a nightmare trip, the winner got away with an uncontested lead through slow fractions. The distance should suit Duveen well, and he'll come charging in the stretch. Edgar Prado picks up the mount.
STRIKE A DEAL (Smart Strike) has traded photo-finishes with SUMMER DOLDRUMS (Street Cry [Ire]) recently. In his sophomore debut, Strike a Deal eked out a nose decision in the one-mile Straight Deal S., but he failed by a head in the 1 3/16-mile Colonial Turf Cup S. (G3). Summer Doldrums probably had a fitness edge going a longer distance last time, and he definitely had a cleaner trip. On Saturday, Strike a Deal will be making his third start after a layoff, and he will also have a four-pound advantage over his nemesis at the weights (116 versus 120). For all of these reasons, Strike a Deal is eligible to turn the tables on Summer Doldrums in their rubber match. If the Alan Goldberg pupil takes a sizeable step forward, he could lift the trophy. Note that Ramon Dominguez, who guided him to victory in the Laurel Futurity, will be back aboard.
Summer Doldrums burst onto the Triple Crown trail with a 5 1/4-length romp in the Whirlaway S. in February, but he wasn't able to build on that performance. After finishing third in the Gotham S. (G3) and fourth in the Wood Memorial S. (G1), he rebounded on the turf while staging a thrilling rivalry with Strike a Deal. It would be no surprise if Summer Doldrums continues his progress on the grass and cracks the top three.
Inca King must be respected, not only because he hails from the barn of Steve Asmussen, but particularly because of his tactical speed. Three-for-three on the turf, the dark bay gelding figures to race on or near the early lead, and he will get first run on the closers. Inca King could get softened up by pace pressure while trying to carry his speed 10 furlongs, but he may well be good enough to hang on for a minor award.
TOP CROSS (Gone West) was a non-threatening sixth in the Crown Royal American Turf, but the Pletcher trainee came right back to capture the Lamplighter S. at Monmouth by 3 1/4 lengths against a softer group. The dark bay is an uncertain proposition at this distance, untested beyond 1 1/16 miles with a pedigree suggesting speed. He would help his chances if he sticks to late-running tactics. Pletcher's third entrant, RED GIANT (Giant's Causeway), could use his early speed to hound Inca King. The well bred chestnut is coming off a narrow score in the one-mile Restoration S. versus lesser.
SOLDIER'S DANCER (Lost Soldier) had his moment of graded glory when taking the Tropical Park Derby (G3) on New Year's Day. The gray was just caught by Duveen in the Palm Beach, and last time out, he was a troubled sixth in the Colonial Turf Cup. He's a genuine sort, but looks a cut below the main contenders.
BLAZING DYNAMO (Dynaformer) has no distance questions, as he rolled to a 3 3/4-length tally in an entry-level allowance at this trip at Belmont. The James Toner charge does, however, have class concerns here, so we'll just watch in his stakes debut. LOVE DUBAI (E Dubai) also claims a win at 1 1/4 miles, but that came in an ordinary handicap on the all-weather in England. Last in both the Illinois Derby (G2) and Blue Grass S. (G1), he showed more to get up for fifth in the Colonial Turf Cup, but it's hard to imagine him getting any closer against a tougher bunch here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-CIRCULAR QUAY
2nd-DUVEEN
3rd-STRIKE A DEAL
SAN DIEGO H. (G2), 9TH-DMR, $300,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/16M, 6:00 P.M. (PDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 ARSON SQUAD HEADLEY BRUCE SOLIS A 120
2 SALTY HUMOR MCCARTHY SEAN COURT J K 113
3 SOUL CITY SLEW AGUIRRE PAUL GARCIA MARTIN 113
4 RAISE THE BLUFF O'NEILL DOUG BAZE T C 114
5 BUZZARDS BAY ELLIS RONALD W VALDIVIA J JR 120
6 C'MON TIGER BAFFERT BOB ESPINOZA V 112
7 AWESOME GEM DOLLASE CRAIG FLORES D R 117
8 HEATSEEKER (IRE) FRANKEL ROBERT J TALAMO JOSEPH 113
9 SUN BOAT (GB) MITCHELL MIKE BAZE M C 114
BUZZARDS BAY (Marco Bay) is the horse to beat in Saturday's $300,000 San Diego H. (G2), but we haven't been excited about either of his two efforts so far this year. We'll tab AWESOME GEM (Awesome Again) for the upset.
Winner of the San Fernando Breeders' Cup S. (G2) at Santa Anita earlier this year, the Craig Dollase trainee was freshened following an eighth in the Santa Anita H. (G1) and returned to the races with two solid efforts versus allowance rivals over the Cushion Track, including a one-length score last out in which he registered a 102 BRIS Late Pace rating. Awesome Gem is a strong finisher, earning a 110 Late Pace number in the San Fernando, and he's run well in his last two appearances over synthetic tracks. The four-year-old gelding turned in a sharp six-furlong work earlier this week in preparation, and we'll look for him to come running late for the upset.
ARSON SQUAD (Brahms) has never been on a synthetic track, but the Bruce Headley trainee got acquainted with the Polytrack when working at Del Mar late last week and again on Thursday. We expect him to run well off the freshening. Winner of last year's Swaps Breeders' Cup S. (G2), Arson Squad was last seen posting an authoritative score in the Strub S. (G2) in early February, and he's recorded century-topping Late Pace ratings in his last five races, including a 114 two starts back. The four-year-old gelding looms as a big threat from off the pace, and we won't be surprised to see him return a winner under Alex Solis.
Buzzards Bay owns plenty of back class, and the Grade 1 winner figures to be a heavy favorite here. He's certainly eligible to post his second consecutive victory, but he didn't put away his rivals like we thought he would when hitting the front in the stretch of the Californian S. (G2), holding on to win by a diminishing nose. The Ron Ellis charge then missed his next scheduled start in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), and we question whether Buzzards Bay is at the top of his game physically. He could prove us wrong.
HEATSEEKER (Ire) (Giant's Causeway) will step up for Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel off a victory via disqualification in a turf allowance. The four-year-old colt owns stakes experience, finishing third in the 2005 National S. (Ire-G1) at The Curragh, and good turf form usually transfers well to the Polytrack. Heatseeker will enter this event on the improve and will retain the services of the hot-riding Joseph Talamo. Frankel's runners win at a 26 percent clip with first-time blinkers, and we'll use Heatseeker in some exotics in his first start with the hood.
SUN BOAT (GB) (Machiavellian) was claimed for $50,000 three starts back and just missed when making his stakes bow in the Californian, finishing a fast-closing second. The Mike Mitchell trainee liked the Cushion Track at Hollywood, but that doesn't mean he'll favor the Polytrack, which is a different surface. We recognize his improving form, but we'll go against the former claimer.
C'MON TIGER (Storm Cat) will likely show speed, but we'd be surprised to see him sustain it in his graded debut. RAISE THE BLUFF (Pine Bluff) hasn't started since winning the Santana Mile H. at Santa Anita in mid-March. This is a difficult spot for him to return in, and we'll just watch for now.
SALTY HUMOR (Distorted Humor) and SOUL CITY SLEW (Slew City Slew) both have serious class concerns in this spot.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-AWESOME GEM
2nd-ARSON SQUAD
3rd-BUZZARDS BAY
AMERICAN DERBY (G2), 8TH-AP, $250,000, 3YO, 1 3/16MT, 4:24 P.M. (CDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 PLEASANT STRIKE PLETCHER TODD A DOUGLAS R R 121
2 LOVANGO ROBERTSON MCLEAN EMIGH C A 119
3 GOING BALLISTIC VON HEMEL DONNIE K BERRY M C 121
4 LATTICE MOTT WILLIAM I ALBARADO R J 119
5 SELF MADE MAN MAKER MICHAEL J RAZO E JR 119
6 QUASICOBRA BIANCONE PATRICK L LEPAROUX JULIEN 119
7 SUMAC HALL JOHN L STERLING L J JR 119
8 PERFECT CASTING WELD DERMOT K SMULLEN P J 119
9 EIGHTEENTHOFMARCH GOOD JOHN GRAHAM J 119
Nine three-year-olds will line up for Saturday's American Derby (G2), which is the second leg of Arlington Park's Mid-America Triple and the first of three graded turf stakes on Arlington Million Preview Day. The last four runnings have been won by horses trained by Bill Mott and Dermot Weld, and both have entrants in this year's edition. Moreover, the ubiquitous Todd Pletcher will saddle PLEASANT STRIKE (Smart Strike), the 5-2 morning line favorite, who stormed home by 3 3/4 lengths in the Arlington Classic S. (G3), the first leg of the series that concludes with the Secretariat S. (G1) on August 11.
PERFECT CASTING (Diesis [GB]), who will be making his U.S. debut in the American Derby, easily rates our top choice. Weld is an expert at bringing horses over from Europe to win this event as he did with Evolving Tactics (Ire) and Simple Exchange (Ire) in 2003 and 2004, respectively, and Patrick Smullen, who rode both of those, will be aboard Perfect Casting. The chestnut has been competing over less-than-firm ground in Ireland and should relish the firmer conditions here.
In his debut over good-to-yielding ground, Perfect Casting finished a close second to Alexander of Hales (Danehill), who subsequently won the Gallinule S. (Ire-G3) and most recently finished second in the Irish Derby (Ire-G1). In his next start, Perfect Casting turned back in trip and defeated maidens by open lengths on good-to-firm ground at Leopardstown, then made all the running before holding sway on yielding-to-soft ground at Navan. Perfect Casting drops 10 pounds off his last start and will be equipped with first-time blinkers and Lasix, which only adds to the allure.
LOVANGO (Capote) could add value to the vertical exotics. The bay colt was hung three or four wide around the first turn, made a quick middle move on the outside down the backstretch, advanced three wide around the second turn before challenging for the lead near the quarter-mile pole, then held on well for runner-up honors in the Arlington Classic. Before that, he finished a decent third in the Awad S. over this course in his turf debut. Lovango projects an inside stalking trip and could crash the exotics at a price.
Pleasant Strike was glued to the rail around both turns before angling out nicely at the top of stretch and drawing off under a hand ride to win the Arlington Classic. Our only concern is that he got a perfect stalking trip on the lawn at Keeneland, only to be outfinished by LATTICE (Arch) when finishing a one-paced third. Pleasant Strike, who seems to be improving, will be hard to keep out of the trifecta under leading rider Rene Douglas.
Lattice had a hard way to go when they went slow early and flew home late in the Jefferson Cup S. (G2) at Churchill Downs. The Mott trainee was under a hold from between foes around the first turn, raced in a pocket along the inside, angled out turning for home, then finished evenly for fourth. It should be noted that the winner, Inca King (Sir Cat), finished his final three-eighths in :34 1/5 and his final eighth-mile in :11 2/5. Lattice, whose only other loss was to Inca King at Keeneland, is our sleeper.
GOING BALLISTIC (Lite the Fuse), whose great grandfather won this race when it was on dirt, owns a 5-3-1-1 record on turf. The gray colt closed determinedly to win the grassy U.S.A. S. on soft ground at Lone Star Park before finishing a decent third in the Iowa Derby in his last start. He has some upset potential and could be a useful sort to throw in on the bottom of the exotics. QUASICOBRA (Wild Rush) dropped back inexplicably going into the far turn, then offered a mild rally along the inside before finishing a non-threatening third in the Arlington Classic. The Patrick Biancone charge was disqualified from his lone turf victory and would have to improve significantly to take home the trophy.
SELF MADE MAN (Catienus) has improved noticeably since breaking his maiden by 12 1/2 lengths for a $7,500 tag and being switched to the turf. He is hard to recommend at this level. EIGHTEENTHOFMARCH (Wild Event) won over this course two back, then was a closing fifth in the Awad. He has trained well since then but would be a surprise. SUMAC (Crafty Prospector) ships in from Prairie Meadows after finishing on the fringes in a pair of stakes. He is in the tall grass with these.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-PERFECT CASTING
2nd-LOVANGO
3rd-PLEASANT STRIKE
ARLINGTON H. (G3), 9TH-AP, $200,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/4MT, 4:54 P.M. (CDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 REVVED UP CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE DOUGLAS R R 117
2 COME ON JAZZ WILLIAMSON BRIAN EMIGH C A 114
3 MEADOW VESPERS RETTELE RICHARD DOSER M E 116
4 GO BETWEEN MOTT WILLIAM I ALBARADO R J 116
5 GRAY SUITOR MOTION H GRAHAM ROSE J 114
6 CLOUDY'S KNIGHT KIRBY FRANK J ZIMMERMAN R 117
7 LORD CARMEN KIRBY FRANK J PENALBA C 113
8 COSMONAUT BIANCONE PATRICK L LEPAROUX JULIEN 121
9 MURCH PITTS HELEN GRAHAM J 113
10 I BELIEVE IN ME MCGEE PAUL STERLING L J JR 113
11 GREEN LEMON MOTION H GRAHAM CAMPBELL J M 114
COSMONAUT (Lemon Drop Kid) is back to defend his title in Saturday's $200,000 Arlington H. (G3). An easy 2 1/4-length scorer last year, the five-year-old gray enters the 2007 edition in good form, recording a fast-finishing second in the Dixie S. (G2) two back and an excellent fourth, beaten only three parts of a length, in the Manhattan H. (G1) most recently. He'll be close to the pace with Julien Leparoux, and Cosmonaut's BRIS numbers lay over his rivals. He's well spotted to get a win in his final prep for the Arlington Million (G1) on August 11.
Canadian Grade 2 hero REVVED UP (Sultry Song) is one-for-one over the course, winning the 2005 Stars and Stripes Breeders' Cup Turf H. (G3), and the long-distance specialist has been freshened for this event by Christophe Clement. Revved Up runs well with some time between starts, captured last year's Bob Harding S. off a similar layoff, and he's capable of more than he showed in Florida earlier this year. The gray gelding will be saving ground from the rail with Rene Douglas, and Revved Up can complete the exacta.
GO BETWEEN (Point Given) is a logical contender. Winner of last year's Virginia Derby (G2), the Bill Mott trainee has raced five times in 2007, most recently finishing second in the Opening Verse H. at Churchill. We were expecting to see a little more from the four-year-old this season, but we still respect his chances under Robby Albarado.
GRAY SUITOR (Maria's Mon) owns a good late kick, registering a 105 BRIS Late Pace figure last time, and he's one to consider for the bottom of the exotics at long odds. He'll be tested for class, but Gray Suitor's recent form is encouraging.
CLOUDY'S KNIGHT (Lord Avie) is another top three candidate. A Grade 3 winner earlier this year, he just missed in the Stars and Stripes last out, dueling through deep stretch before falling a nose short. That could be a difficult effort to rebound from, but Cloudy's Knight has the ability to be a serious factor if ready. GREEN LEMON (Lemon Drop Kid) will have to overcome a tough outside post, but we like the trainer switch to Graham Motion and the four-year-old has shown some promise at longer distances previously. Third in last year's National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame S. (G2), Green Lemon ran well in his first start back off a lengthy layoff earlier this year and could be ready to deliver a good showing here.
I BELIEVE IN ME (Giant's Causeway) will likely be a pace factor, but he didn't run well stepping up in class and distance two starts back. LORD CARMEN (Ordway) is a three-time winner over the course, but he doesn't appear to be at his best presently. COME ON JAZZ (Jambalaya Jazz) was no factor in the Stars and Stripes and probably needs an easier spot to be effective. MURCH (Mr. Greeley) will need to turn things around significantly. MEADOW VESPERS (Meadow Prayer) looks overmatched.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-COSMONAUT
2nd-REVVED UP
3rd-GO BETWEEN
MODESTY H. (G3), 10TH-AP, $150,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 3/16MT, 5:24 P.M. (CDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 ALMONSOON PLETCHER TODD A DOUGLAS R R 114
2 JENNIE R. BOYCE MICHELE BAIRD E T 114
3 MABADI SWEARINGEN TOM H CAMPBELL J M 117
4 BRIDGE GAME MOTION H GRAHAM ROSE J 116
5 BROWNIE POINTS VON HEMEL DONNIE K QUINONEZ L S 117
6 CHIC DANCER JANKS CHRISTINE K EMIGH C A 115
7 SOHGOL (IRE) DRYSDALE NEIL ALBARADO R J 118
8 RICH IN SPIRIT PROCTOR THOMAS F LEPAROUX JULIEN 115
Eight turf distaffers will settle Saturday's $150,000 Modesty H. (G3), and it's difficult to imagine this race having much impact upon the $750,000 Beverly D. S. (G1) on August 11. Southern California shipper MABADI (Sahm) is listed as the 5-2 favorite on the morning line, but we'll pursue value with BRIDGE GAME (Giant's Causeway).
Trained by Graham Motion, Bridge Game has run well in all four starts this year, recording a 2-1-1 record, and exits a better-than-appears third in the All Along Breeders' Cup S. (G3) last out at Colonial Downs. She was too far back early and lost valuable ground when forced extremely wide into the stretch, netting a 102 BRIS Late Pace rating for her fast-closing finish. The dark bay lass owns more tactical speed than she displayed that afternoon, and we'll look for an improved showing at Arlington. Bridge Game is two-for-two over the Chicago turf course, breaking her maiden and capturing an allowance/optional claiming event last season, and we like the way she's headed presently for Motion. Her early price (10-1 on the morning line) is attractive.
ALMONSOON (Giant's Causeway) must be respected. A sharp allowance winner three starts back, the four-year-old filly recorded a commendable second in the Orchid H. (G3) next out. She didn't fire her best effort last time at Churchill, but the chestnut has been freshened and appears to be training well for her return. Rene Douglas is winning at a 35 percent clip with Todd Pletcher over the last 60 days, and Almonsoon will be able to save ground from her rail post. She'll probably be in the thick of things, challenging for it all, when the field turns for home.
CHIC DANCER (Joyeux Danseur) is an Arlington specialist (14-7-4-1) and brings solid form into this event, finishing second in the Possibly Perfect S. last out. She has to overcome a case of seconditis (runner-up in her last three outings), but the Christine Janks-trained mare ran a big race when capturing last year's Modesty and is a candidate to repeat.
JENNIE R. (Awesome Again) will likely show speed and merits consideration for the exotics off her recent efforts. The six-year-old mare will be tested for class, but she's bred to handle longer distances and looms as a threat to hold for part.
Mabadi exits a fourth to the mighty Citronnade (Lemon Drop Kid) in the Beverly Hills H. (G2), but we can't get too excited about her previous form. The late-running filly figures to appreciate the 1 3/16-mile distance, but she looks like a probable underlay. SOHGOL (Ire) (Singspiel [Ire]) has also shipped in from California and recorded a good second in the one-mile Wilshire H. (G3) two starts back. The Neil Drysdale runner hasn't been much of a factor in her last few starts at longer distances, and we'll just watch to see how she performs here.
BROWNIE POINTS (Forest Wildcat) is a four-time winner on turf and recorded a good second to Lady of Venice (Fr) (Loup Solitaire) in the Ouija Board Distaff H. (G3) two starts back. The versatile Donnie Von Hemel trainee exits a win over the main track in the Iowa Distaff Breeders' Cup S., but Saturday's 1 3/16-mile distance doesn't look like the ideal trip for the four-year-old. Brownie Points has never even been nine furlongs.
RICH IN SPIRIT (Repriced) owns some back class, but her recent form is discouraging.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-BRIDGE GAME
2nd-ALMONSOON
3rd-CHIC DANCER
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Del Mar for Saturday July 21, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Del Mar
Del Mar - Race #7 - Post: 5:05pm
Rating: 4
Choice Plays:
#1A PRIVATE BANKING (FR) (ML=8/1)
#5 DOUBLE TROUBLE (BRZ) (ML=2/1)
#8 ARM CANDY (IRE) (ML=3/1)
PRIVATE BANKING (FR) - Based on her last TrackMaster turf fig alone, I'm going to play this thoroughbred. When I handicap a grass race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This mount has the highest average class in the entire group. Had a solid closing move last out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar performance today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. DOUBLE TROUBLE (BRZ) - Owns the highest speed rating on the turf at this distance. I took a look at this filly's finishes. She's almost always on the board. This jockey and trainer have a profitable ROI when they work together. Came home fast in the last race at Hollywood Park. That type of move bodes well for her chances in this event. ARM CANDY (IRE) - Average Equibase class figure is tops in this bunch. I think that is a big edge for a race on the turf. When Espinoza and Cecil combine forces on animals the return on investment has been fantastic at +75. The 112 most recent race speed fig looks sound on paper.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 KRIS' SIS (ML=7/2), #1 GRECIAN (ARG) (ML=8/1), #7 FLEETHEART (ML=8/1)
KRIS' SIS - This entrant will in all probability be way back as this field crosses the finish line. GRECIAN (ARG) - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with morning line odds of 8/1. Hard to put your money on this speed merchant. Too much zip in the event. FLEETHEART - All kinds of crazy speed on board for this event. Little chance for this early speedster.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PRIVATE BANKING (FR) - This mare doesn't have to improve too much to win this race. Definitely worth a prime bet.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 Entry to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,5,8] with [1,5,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] Total Cost: $36
__________________
Calder
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
7 BRITTEN'S BEAUTY is back with maidens after rallying 3-wide to finish second to undefeated Yonagucci in the $100K J J's Dream. Trainer Milt Wolfson has Manoel Cruz atop the daughter of Doneraile Court. 6 AT FIRST GLANCE, a daughter of Holy Bull, is hoping to compete on a fast surface after finishing a strong second in a pair of maiden special weight sprints on sealed 'sloppy' tracks. 1 PHALEONOPSIS will be outfitted with blinkers after recovering from a poor start to get beat 3 1/4 lengths in her $25K debut.
7-6-1
Race 2 -
3 CLEVER DAME needs to find a little more for the stretch drive after dueling from start-to-finish and getting out-gamed at the wire when beaten three-quarters of a length at this level and distance. 4 PERFECT LIE is stretching out around 2-turns with the ideal running style needed to reel in what should be a hot and heavy pace scenario. Note that trainer Bill White is 30% with horses stretching out in distance. 6 GOLDEN CITIES drops to the $16K level after setting the pace and fading late in a pair of $25K 'two-lifetime' claimers at a mile and a sixteenth.
3-4-6
Race 3 -
6 GOLDEN SPIKES, a beautifully bred $250K son of Seeking The Gold, debuts for trainer Marty Wolfson with 5 local workouts showing, including a half-mile bullet on July 8, in preparation for this assignment. 10 DYNHOCRACY is a son of Adhocracy debuting for trainer Bill Kaplan with a string of solid workouts posted. Note that trainer Kaplan has a 33% win average with his freshman runners. 3 ALL EXPENSES PAID, a son of Trippi, hopes to live up to his name when he tries to win at first asking for the always-dangerous Ed Plesa Jr. barn. 8 JOEY THE SCHOLAR, a half to local stakes winner Donthelumbertrader, has worked good enough to be a factor in his debut.
6-10-3-8
Race 4 -
2 SOLDIER'S WORD is stretching out after notching his second consecutive victory when beating this level of competition at a mile & 70 yards. 7 BANDIT NAILHEAD will stretch out to a mile and a sixteenth after dueling and fading to finish third behind Soldier's Word last out. 3 MR. WILLIE JOE drops to the bottom after hitting the board in 1 of 2 recent outings vs. $8K claimers. 10 POUNDCAKE moved to the Greg Griffith barn via the claim after he was eased, as the odds-on choice, in a slop race at this level and distance (June 18). The solid half-mile drill on July 6 indicates the gelding is back on track.
2-7-3-10
Race 5 - THE NOBLE ROBYN
1 SNOW CONE has been dodging raindrops since mid-May hoping to get back on the turf after finishing second in front of next-out winners Dantrelle Light & Diamond Dina in the $75K Ga. Oaks (May 5). 4 CASA MIMATY, cross-entered on the dirt in The Nancy's Glitter Handicap (Race 11) has been a sensation winning back-to-back races on the main track by open lengths. However her ability to handle the turf in winning fashion is still a work in progress. 6 COZZI CAPITAL, a beautifully bred daughter of Cozzene, will step up the competition trying to keep her record on the Calder turf unblemished (2-2-0-0).
1-4-6
Race 6 -
3 BELLA CARINA, beaten a half-length at this level and distance on June 24, is back with maidens after showing early interest and fading behind undefeated Yonagucci in the $100K J J's Dream. 4 FULL EXCHANGE is stretching out around 1-turn after encountering early trouble (awkward start, steadied) and still managing to finish third in her 2-furlong debut. 2 HER GREATNESS may have tipped her hand when she worked a 5-furlong bullet here on Monday in preparation for her career debut. 6 INCENDIARY is stretching out after finishing second - beaten a half-length - in a pair of 2-furlong dashes vs. $40K maidens.
3-4-2-6
Race 7 -
11 RING THE REGISTER is stretching out after encountering trouble on the turn (steadied) when finishing fourth in a 'key' 7 1/2-furlong affair that produced next-out winners Saviano, Magic Monde & Minidrop. His biggest challenge will surely come from 8 EASTERN SEABOARD. The gelding, third in front of Ring The Register on May 19, returns to the turf after a troubled trip (bumped start, checked backstretch) at this level on the main track. 9 TOMS MULLIGAN makes his first start since finishing a troubled third (steadied both turns) behind repeat winner Notice Me Now at this level on May 19. 4 MIDATLANTIC, 2 for 3 in the money on the turf, returns to the lawn after finishing third vs. $16K 'two-lifetime' claimers on the dirt.
11-8-9-4
Race 8 -
5 STYLISH JOE and 1 UNIMPEDED renew the rivalry after finishing first & second, respectively, at this distance on June 29. The former, trained by Marty Wolfson, is reunited with apprentice Jermaine Bridgmohan while the latter, conditioned by Tom Schell, gets the services of 10-pound bug Jose Ortiz after breaking awkwardly in the slop and finishing fourth in the rained out $100K Turf Sprint Handicap. 2 TALE OF A MONSTER will face multiple winners after holding on gamely to break his maiden for trainer Wesley Ward, who is winning races here at a 31% clip.
5-1-2
Race 9 -
12 MAX'S IS LOOSE, second vs. better on the turf during May & June, returns to the grass after chasing the pace and fading vs. $40K maidens on a 'fast' track. 7 ROYAL PARK, a regally bred son of Royal Academy, out of the Nureyev mare Nureyev's Park, debuts on the lawn after finishing second in a $32K maiden test moved to a sealed 'fast' track. Note that trainer Bill White has a 29% average with horses making their second start. 8 MOUNTAIN MYTH, a respectable third on the turf at this level on May 25, returns to the lawn after hitting the board in 1 of 2 recent outings vs. similar on wet tracks. 10 PERFECT CRUISE makes his first journey since finishing fourth in a 'key' maiden event at Laurel during 2005 that produced 4 next-out winners.
12-7-8-10
Race 10 -
1 SURREALDEAL is back with maidens after rallying on a sealed 'sloppy' track to finish second to Big City Man in the $100K Criterium Stakes. 10 COOKSON is hoping for a clean trip after altering course in the stretch when finishing second in his career debut at this level and distance. 8 JOE FIVE renews the rivalry with Cookson after responding to the addition of Lasix with a third place finish behind him last out. Trainer Frank Gomez teams with leading apprentice David Cardoso. 12 STRAIGHT MONEY MAN has trained consistently enough to be a factor in his career debut for trainer Bill Kaplan, who has 33% win average with his juveniles.
1-10-8-12
Race 11 - THE NANCY'S GLITTER HANDICAP
8 POTRA CLASICA, a versatile daughter of Potrillion, who is 4 for 7 on the Calder main track, and 3-2-1-0 on wet surfaces, returns to the dirt after finishing second on the turf in the $45K Liberada. 4 CASA MIMATY, cross entered on the turf in the Noble Robyn, looks strong if trainer Luis Olivares opts to run her here. The daughter of Waquoit is looking for her third straight victory on the dirt, which includes the 7-length score on a sealed 'sloppy' track in the Sweettrickydancer last out. 6 CAT CAN DO, competitive with this level of competition on the dirt, returns to the main track after fading to finish seventh on the grass in the Liberada. 2 MIA'S REFLECTION stretches out after she finished second and was placed first via a steward's decision in the $50K Ms. Brookski, which was moved to a sealed 'sloppy' track.
8-4-6-2
Race 12 -
1 TRI TO DANCE had her $40K victory on June 22 vs. this caliber of competition validated when second place finisher 6 SISTER SISSY drew clear to wallop $25K conditioned claimers on July 5 by 14 1/2 lengths. The rematch between the top two selections should be worth the price of admission. 5 WILD LISA will face winners at 8 furlongs after using her speed to defeat a group of maiden special runners at a mile & 70 yards. Trainer Steve Dwoskin has leading rider Elvis Trujillo atop the lightly raced daughter of Wild Again.
1-6-5
Race 13 -
6 SPOILED ROYALITY, now in the Steve Standridge barn, will face bottom level maidens at 5 1/2 furlongs after setting the pace and fading to finish second vs. $16K types at three-quarters of a mile. 7 CIRCLETHEBASES is hoping to hit one out of the park at the $12.5K level after encountering trouble when facing $16K maidens at Gulfstream during Feb. & Mar. 4 ZAGUMP is stretching out to 5 1/2 furlongs after pressing the pace and tiring to finish fourth vs. similar at five-eighths of a mile. 9 LEAD ON, a $27K son of Lemon Drop Kid, debuts vs. bottom level foes off a series of 'out of town' workouts, and one local half-mile gate work in : 50 & 1. Trainer Bill White sweetens the deal with Lasix & leading jock Elvis Trujillo.
BEST BET: RACE 11 - POTRA CLASICA
LONG SHOT: RACE 9 - RIOT'S APPLE
6-7-4-9
__________________
maddux sports
Cleveland -140
jeff alexander
San Diego -122 (listing Wells)
The Phillies are just 9-25 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season and 2-8 against the money line with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games this season. Wells has been on fire winning each of his last 3 starts against the ML with an ERA of just 2.30. Take the Padres
info plays
3* on Pittsburgh +103 (Listing Rodriguez and Maholm)
Pittsburgh is 12-5 against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Rodriguez is 4-13 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are just 11-20 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. We'll side with Pittsburgh at home today.
black widow
Florida -125 (listing Kim)
Florida will silence the Reds at home today. Plays on Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (FLORIDA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season-NL, in July games are 34-12 (73.9%) the last 5 seasons. The Reds are just 3-13 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. Watch these unique systems work like a charm. We'll make a small play on the Marlins in this one.
priceless picks
Houston -111 (listing Rodriguez)
Rodriguez is 11-3 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are just 7-20 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. Pittsburgh is a pathetic 62-114 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 since 1997. Both teams are struggling right now, but Houston gets the edge Rodriguez on the hill.
black magic
Toronto -113 (listing Weaver and Towers)
Seattle is just 6-21 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Weaver is 0-4 on the road this season with an ERA of 7.92. With the success Toronto has had at home against the Mariners the last 3 seasons, we won't hesitate to pull the trigger on them today
locksmith sports
Cleveland -134 (listing Lee)
Cleveland owns the Rangers having won all 4 meetings against them this season. Texas is just 6-24 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Texas is losing these games by over 2 runs per game. Take the Indians
Cappersaccess
(Sat) MLB Blue Jays Mariners 110 Blue Jays
(Sat) MLB Astros Pirates 110 Pirates
dave price
MLB Houston vs. Pittsburgh []
Take Houston Astros
1 Unit on Houston -111 (listing Rodriguez) Rodriguez is 11-3 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are just 7-20 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. Pittsburgh is a pathetic 62-114 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 since 1997. Both teams are struggling right now, but Houston gets the edge Rodriguez on the hill.
jimmy boyd
MLB Cleveland vs. Texas []
Take Cleveland Indians
1* Cleveland -134 (listing Lee) Cleveland owns the Rangers having won all 4 meetings against them this season. Texas is just 6-24 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Texas is losing these games by over 2 runs per game. Take the Indians.
billy young
Take Florida Marlins
on Florida -130 (listing Kim) Florida will silence the Reds at home today. Plays on Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (FLORIDA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season-NL, in July games are 34-12 (73.9%) the last 5 seasons. The Reds are just 3-13 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. Watch these unique systems work like a charm. We'll make a small play on the Marlins in this one.
john martin
MLB Seattle vs. Toronto []
Take Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto -113 (listing Weaver and Towers) Seattle is just 6-21 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Weaver is 0-4 on the road this season with an ERA of 7.92. With the success Toronto has had at home against the Mariners the last 3 seasons, we won't hesitate to pull the trigger on them today.
larry cook
MLB Houston vs. Pittsburgh []
Take Pittsburgh Pirates
3* on Pittsburgh +103 (Listing Rodriguez and Maholm) Pittsburgh is 12-5 against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Rodriguez is 4-13 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are just 11-20 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. We'll side with Pittsburgh at home today
Jimmy The Moose
Game: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers Jul 21 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: The Giants have lost 7 of their last 10 games. In their last 27 games as the underdog the Giants are 8-19. In their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning record San Francisco is a horrible 6-17. The Giants are 1-4 in Lincecum's last 5 road starts. Milwaukee has won their last 5 games vs. right handed starters. Bush is on the mound this afternoon and the Brewers are 5-1 in his last 6 starts. In his last 4 starts as the favorite Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0. The Giants are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings between the teams and 2-10 in their last 12 visits to Milwaukee. Play on the Brewers -.
Alex Smart
Game: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers Jul 21 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: The Milwaukee Bucks continue to run hot having won 5 of their L/7 games, and have owned this SF Giants team in the recent past having won 7 of the L/8 games in this series. With the Giants in bad current form having lost 7 of their L/9 overall and batting just .228 as a team in their L/10 overall it will be an easy decision to fade them again, no matter who they send to the hill to face the Brewers. Final notes & Key Trends:. The Brewers are 17-3 on home turf vs a National league team like the Giants with a .250 or less batting average on the season. Play on Milwaukee
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers Jul 21 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: At 3:55pm our complimentary selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. Giants outfielder Barry Bonds is now only two home runs shy of Hank Aaron's career record of 755 and he may tie or even break the record at this series in Milwaukee, which would be ironic since Milwaukee is where Aaron used to play his games before the Braves moved to Atlanta. But Milwaukee has other things to think about this weekend, like holding on to their lead in the NL Central division and getting home field advantage in the playoffs so they will have a good shot at winning their first league title since 1982. And this should be a great opportunity for Milwaukee to pad that lead as they have domintated the Giants at home recently, as prior to Friday's San Francisco victory, the Brewers had taken seven straight games vs. the Giants at Miller Park and ten of the last eleven. Two righthanders go against each other in this one as the Giants rookie Tim Lincecum will face off against the Brewers Dave Bush. Lincecum is hoping that this trip to the beer capital of the U.S. turns out better than his last one, having gotten shelled against the Brewers on June 19 in Milwaukee, giving up six earned runs in only four innings on that day. Lincecum also has to worry about the fact that this is a day game as he is 1-1 with a 7.48 ERA in afternoon starts. The circus-like atmosphere that is sure to be surrounding Miller Park this weekend as Bonds goes for the title is likely to adversely effect the Giants more than the Brewers. Take Milwaukee
Ben Burns
Game: Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics Jul 21 2007 9:05PM
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
Reason: The A's lost yesterday's opener but they should have a major advantage this evening. Haren is 6-1 (Oakland is 8-2) in 10 home starts with a simply stellar 2.30 ERA and 0.981 WHIP. Trachsel, on the other hand, is 2-6 (Baltimore is 2-8) with an ugly 5.87 ERA and 1.639 WHIP in 10 road starts. He's been brutal lately, regardless of where he has pitched. In fact, Trachsel is 0-2 (team is 0-3) with an atrocious 13.06 ERA and 2.805 WHIP over his last three starts! Haren has already beaten the Orioles twice this season. Look for Haren and the A's to "get healthy" tonight as they drop their guests to 0-4 when listed as road underdogs in the +175 to +200 range. Consider "laying the price" with OAKLAND
NSA MLB - Atlanta over 9 ]
2. VegasSI.com MLB - Texas over 11
3. Doc's Sports Handicappers MLB - Cincinnati +130
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Detroit over 9
5. Gameday Network MLB - Phillies under 8.5
6. Tony Campone MLB - Seattle over 10.5
7. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Phillies +120
8. Fred Callahan MLB - Yankees over 11(Gm1)
9. Vincent Pioli MLB - Giants +125 ]
10. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Detroit over 9
1. Charlies Sports MLB - Colorado under 9
sports prevue
Saturday July 21, 2007
Start Time: 1:05 p.m. EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks (50-48) at Chicago Cubs (51-44)
Starting pitchers: Micah Owings (5-5, 4.92) vs. Rich Hill (6-6, 3.70)
Arizona committed two errors in Friday's 6-2 loss at Chicago,
falling as 105 road underdogs. The eight runs scored were a push
with the posted total of 8.
Pick: Chicago Cubs -165
Robert Ross
Cincinnati Reds at Florida Marlins
Saturday, July 21st, 7:05 P.M. EST EST
One-sided loss last night dropped the Reds to 10-5 under interim Manager Pete Mackanin. Don't think the Marlins have it in them to beat the Reds two straight. CINCINNATI is 26-19 against the money line in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. FLORIDA is 13-22 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
Good Luck. - Robert Ross
big al
Cincy Reds (Livingston) and Florida Marlins (Kim) 'over the total
Wise Owl Game of the Day - Texas Rangers
Straley Game of the Day - Blue Jays Over
Bobby Maxwell
we're laying very small chalk and going with the Astros as they take on the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are just 2-6 in Paul Maholm's last eight home starts and just 6-13 in his 19 starts this season. He's had horrible luck and just doesn't pitch well enough to keep Pittsburgh in this one tonight.
Maholm (5-12, 4.68 ERA) is going up against the Astros' Wandy Rodriguez (6-8, 4.33) in this battle of lefties. Rodriguez is 2-1 in his last three outings with a 3.26 ERA.
Rodriguez threw two shutouts just before the All-Star break, blanking the Rockies and Mets, but his first start of the second half was tough as he gave up seven runs on nine hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Cubs. He faced the Pirates back on April 26 and gave up three runs on five hits in seven innings of a 5-3 loss.
Maholm has given up three or more runs in seven of his last nine starts and the Pirates have lost six of his last nine. He's made five career starts against the Astros and has given up three or more runs four of the five outings.
The Astros are hitting .278 against lefties this season and should be able to get to Maholm for some runs tonight. Play Houston.
2♦ HOUSTON
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics
Selection: Oakland Athletics -1.5 Runs (-105)
Explanation: We will side with the Oakland Athletics -1.5 Runs as they face-off against the Baltimore Orioles in Saturday's MLB contest.
Today the Baltimore Orioles will use starting pitcher Steve Trachsel. Steve Trachsel has struggled this season. In fact, Steve Trachsel has a 4.95 ERA on the season. In addition, Steve Trachsel has a 13.06 ERA in his last 3 starts. To say the least, this Oakland Athletics offense should be able to score many runs tonight.
On the other hand, the Oakland Athletics will use starting pitcher Danny Haren. Danny Haren has pitched well this season (10-3 with a 2.33 ERA). We expect another solid performance by Danny Haren tonight.
The Oakland Athletics are 39-15 in their last 54 meetings against the Baltimore Orioles, and we see the Oakland Athletics getting another blowout win tonight!
Take the Oakland Athletics -1.5 Runs
Hondo
July 21, 2007 -- Webb was a worldwide disaster yesterday for D'back backers, including Hondo, who saw his defi cit climb to 635 lonborgs with the loss at Wrigley.
Today, Mr. Aitch will play pin the tail on the Pitch ing Form - and the winner is the J's, Al Gore III's fa vorite team. Ten units.
Vegas Experts
Cincinnati Reds at Florida Marlins
Saturday, July 21st, 7:05 P.M. EDT
Doubtful either of these starters will intimidate these lineups. Livingston makes just his 4th career start vs. a lineup that scored 10 runs last night at home. Kim's home ERA is 6.42. CINCINNATI is 23-10 OVER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. FLORIDA is 17-4 OVER in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.
Play on: Over
Robert Ross
Cincinnati Reds at Florida Marlins
Saturday, July 21st, 7:05 P.M. EST EST
One-sided loss last night dropped the Reds to 10-5 under interim Manager Pete Mackanin. Don't think the Marlins have it in them to beat the Reds two straight. CINCINNATI is 26-19 against the money line in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. FLORIDA is 13-22 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
Good Luck. - Robert Ross
Play on: Cincinnati
Marc Lawrence
Tampa Bay DRays vs. New York Yankees
Play On: NY Yankees over Tampa Bay w/ Howell
Pinstripes, anxious to atone for last night 14-4 thumping against the Devil Rays, catch the perfect fodder in Tampa Bay's J.P. Howell. That's because Howell's staggering 12.34 ERA on the road is more than 10 runs per game higher than his home ERA (2.25) this season. With the D-Rays just 4-10 on Saturdays this season, look for the Yanks to silence the boo-birds here this evening
Alex Smart
Milwaukee Brewers (-136)
Sat Jul 21 '07 3:55p
The Milwaukee Bucks continue to run hot having won 5 of their L/7 games, and have owned this SF Giants team in the recent past having won 7 of the L/8 games in this series. With the Giants in bad current form having lost 7 of their L/9 overall and batting just .228 as a team in their L/10 overall it will be an easy decision to fade them again, no matter who they send to the hill to face the Brewers. Final notes & Key Trends:. The Brewers are 17-3 on home turf vs a National league team like the Giants with a .250 or less batting average on the season. Play on Milwaukee
Michael Cannon
Tampa Bay (+170) at NY YANKEES (Game 2)
Take Tampa Bay at a huge return in game two of their doubleheader with the Yankees.
The Devil Rays beat up on the Yankees last night, winning 14-4. The surprising aspect of that outcome was that it came with Edwin Jackson going against Mike Mussina. Jackson had entered the game with a 1-9 record on the year, so there’s no telling how bad the Devil Rays can hammer tonight’s starter, Matt DeSalvo.
I believe that the Devil Rays hold the slight advantage in the pitching matchup in this game. J.P. Howell will start for Tampa Bay and the left-hander is capable of putting up some decent numbers tonight. He’s 1-0 lifetime with a 2.08 ERA in two games vs. the Yanks and I think it will be harder for the aging pinstripes to get up for this game after playing the first game in the afternoon.
The Devil Rays have younger legs, so I don’t see it being a problem for them.
Take Tampa Bay at a huge return as they grab the win in Game 2 of the double-header.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Bobby Maxwell
Houston (-105) at PITTSBURGH
The Pirates are just 2-6 in Paul Maholm's last eight home starts and just 6-13 in his 19 starts this season. He's had horrible luck and just doesn't pitch well enough to keep Pittsburgh in this one tonight.
Maholm (5-12, 4.68 ERA) is going up against the Astros' Wandy Rodriguez (6-8, 4.33) in this battle of lefties. Rodriguez is 2-1 in his last three outings with a 3.26 ERA.
Rodriguez threw two shutouts just before the All-Star break, blanking the Rockies and Mets, but his first start of the second half was tough as he gave up seven runs on nine hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Cubs. He faced the Pirates back on April 26 and gave up three runs on five hits in seven innings of a 5-3 loss.
Maholm has given up three or more runs in seven of his last nine starts and the Pirates have lost six of his last nine. He's made five career starts against the Astros and has given up three or more runs four of the five outings.
The Astros are hitting .278 against lefties this season and should be able to get to Maholm for some runs tonight. Play Houston.
2♦ HOUSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
San Francisco (+125) at MILWAUKEE
Late day action today, and we are going with the underdog Giants to take another at Miller Park.
Last night San Francisco doubled up Milwaukee 8-4, and today they have the lights-out rookie Tim Lincecum on the mound to make his second start against the Brewers.
Lincecum's first start was a loss, as Milwaukee got to him for 6 runs in 4 innings, but this kid's stuff has been untouchable of late, as his last 19 innings have seen just 4 earned runs score for a 2-0 mark.
Dave Bush will counter and has been on a bit of a roll with 2 straight winning decisions, but we like the value Lincecum and the Giants bring to the table.
Play on San Fran in the dog role in this one.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Dave Cokin
(977) LA Angels
(978) MIN Twins
Take "(977) LA Angels"
Heckuva bounceback by the Twins Friday night coming off the disastrous set with Detroit. But I think the Twins are in tough tonight and expect the Halos to rebound with a solid win. Jered Weaver isn't flashing the form he enjoyed in his rookie campaign, but he's been decent enough for the Angels. Boof Bonser has the attractive K/IP ratio, but therein lies the problem for the Minnesota righty as he's presently much more of a thrower than a pitcher. I think he's tailor made for the Angels lineup and they absolutely lit him up earlier in Anaheim. More of the same tonight should pave the way for an Angels victory.
Jim Feist
(971) SEA Mariners
(972) TOR Blue Jays
Take "Over"
Just when you thought it was safe to bet on Jeff Weaver - you get pulled back in again!!! Weaver looked like he had righted a sinking ship and then he ran into Detroit in his last outing. The Tigers jumped all over the right-hander for 10 hits in just five innings. The loss dropped Weaver to 2-7 on the season with a 6.82 era. But it gets even uglier on the road where he is 0-4 with a 7.93 era.
We'd like to say Josh Towers of the Jays is having a much better season than Weaver, but we really wouldn't be saying much. Towers is just 3-6 on the year with a 5.29 era. Moreover, he didn't last much longer in his last outing than his counterpart; pitching just 5 2/3 innings and giving up nine hits and six earned runs.
Nope, this is the kind of game you take the OVER, sit back and watch the balls fly out of the park!!! GO OVER on Saturday.
Saturday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Friday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (2nd) Winter's Over, 8-1
(10th) Sweetbriar Academy, 8-1
Belmont Park (7th) Reyana's Jet, 5-1
(9th) For Gill, 5-1
Calder Race Course (4th) Lido Point, 4-1
(10th) Dream a Little Bit, 3-1
Canterbury Park (7th) Iron Boy, 7-2
(8th) Affection, 4-1
Charles Town (4th) Kulia, 3-1
(7th) Shes Appealing, 5-1
Colonial Downs (2nd) Struggler's Legend, 7-2
(4th) Peggy's Pride, 7-2
Del Mar (3rd) Forest Miss, 3-1
(4th) Yankee Bay, 7-2
Ellis Park (3rd) Surprise Me Not, 9-2
(10th) Laredo Lass, 4-1
Emerald Downs (2nd) Prince Smiley, 3-1
(8th) Sarah Mac, 3-1
Evangeline Downs (1st) Fast Kylie, 3-1
(2nd) Misty's Halo, 3-1
Finger Lakes (2nd) Atlantis Dream, 4-1
(6th) Lake Egri, 8-1
Hastings Park (1st) My Only Love, 5-1
(7th) Royal Sovereign, 3-1
Lone Star Park (7th) Buddha Lady, 6-1
(9th) True Man, 4-1
Louisiana Downs (6th) Albert's Gift, 3-1
(7th) Edna's Secret, 7-2
Monmouth Park (4th) Lily's Place, 7-2
(6th) Afleet Tiger, 3-1
Mountaineer (7th) Victory Moondance, 9-2
(8th) Marske, 7-2
Northlands (3rd) Smokester Horizon, 4-1
(7th) Bourbon Country, 8-1
Penn National (4th) Mordedor, 5-1
(9th) Sand King, 6-1
Prairie Meadows (5th) Andy's Annie, 5-1
(6th) Worththebother, 7-2
River Downs (7th) Prince Alexander, 6-1
(9th) Bold Move, 5-1
Thistledown (2nd) Dashfortheroses, 9-2
(6th) Gold Return, 7-2
Woodbine (3rd) Dance to My Tune, 7-2
(9th) Morning Prayers, 6-1
COACHING CLUB AMERICAN OAKS (G1), 8TH-BEL, $300,000, 3YO, F, 1 1/4M, 4:44 P.M. (EDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 COY COYOTE DICKINSON MICHAEL W JARA FERNANDO 121
2 HUMBLE JANET ASMUSSEN STEVEN M GARCIA A 121
3 WOW ME FREE JENKINS RODNEY CASTELLANO J J 121
4 ROSIE'S ATTITUDE BUSH THOMAS M BEJARANO R 121
5 OCTAVE PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 121
6 LEAR'S PRINCESS MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P COA E M 121
7 FOLK *SUROOR SAEED BIN LUZZI M J 121
Even with the defection of Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy), Saturday's Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) is turning into a one-horse affair. The 1 1/4-mile Belmont test drew a field of seven, but OCTAVE (Unbridled's Song) is clearly the best. The Todd Pletcher charge broke a five-race seconditis streak when taking the nine-furlong Mother Goose S. (G1) last out by a half-length, and looks poised to add a second Grade 1 to her record with this one. The gray miss has earned consecutive triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings for her past two starts, including a 104 figure for her Kentucky Oaks (G1) placing behind Rags to Riches, and will keep John Velazquez aboard for this race.
The main question about the CCA Oaks is not who will win, but who will run second. We're tabbing the lightly raced LEAR'S PRINCESS (Lear Fan) to fill that spot. The Kiaran McLaughlin-conditioned bay lass is undefeated from three career starts so far, breaking her maiden on Keeneland's Polytrack before taking an allowance and the Tweedside S. in her past two on Belmont's turf. She'll be making her dirt debut here, but has been working well over Saratoga's training track. Even though Lear's Princess is making her fourth career start in a Grade 1 test, this is a pretty weak field except for the top one and she could earn an easy placing. Eibar Coa has the call.
Godolphin's FOLK (Quiet American) is something of an enigma. The bay lass was a major force during the early part of the year, taking the U.A.E. One Thousand Guineas and U.A.E. Oaks at Nad al Sheba, but was obviously out of her depth when taking on the boys in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) last out. She finished a well-beaten 10th on that day nearly four months ago and hasn't been seen in competition since. Folk showed up on the Belmont Park worktab in late June, and broke her maiden by 10 1/4 front-running lengths at Aqueduct last November. She could relish the return to the filly ranks and challenge for it all, but we'll give her a race off the defeat and long break. Mike Luzzi will be aboard.
COY COYOTE (Honour and Glory) ended her juvenile season with a nice win in the Mazarine Breeders' Cup S. (Can-G3) at Woodbine in late September, and made her 2007 bow a second in Monmouth Park's Without Feathers S. last out. The Michael Dickinson trainee earned a 97 Speed rating for that start, which she probably needed after the layoff, as well as a 99 BRIS E2 Pace figure. Coy Coyote might complete the bottom of the gimmicks under Fernando Jara. HUMBLE JANET (Humble Eleven) was claimed in April by Steve Asmussen and has since captured an allowance at Churchill Downs and run second in the Iowa Oaks (G3). The bay three-year-old isn't in the same class as our top three, but she could earn a check.
Neither WOW ME FREE (Menifee) nor ROSIE'S ATTITUDE (Aptitude) appear fast enough to stay in touch with these.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-OCTAVE
2nd-LEAR'S PRINCESS
3rd-FOLK
VIRGINIA DERBY (G2), 9TH-CNL, $1,000,000, 3YO, 1 1/4MT, 5:44 P.M.(EDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 BLAZING DYNAMO TONER JAMES J DESORMEAUX K J 116
2 STRIKE A DEAL GOLDBERG ALAN E DOMINGUEZ RAMON 116
3 RED GIANT PLETCHER TODD A NO RIDER 116
4 CIRCULAR QUAY PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 118
5 INCA KING ASMUSSEN STEVEN M BRIDGMOHAN S X 120
6 SOLDIER'S DANCER VIVIAN DAVID A VELASQUEZ CORNELIO 118
7 DUVEEN ROMANS DALE PRADO E S 120
8 LOVE DUBAI MAKER MICHAEL J GUIDRY M 116
9 SUMMER DOLDRUMS VIOLETTE RICHARD JR LEZCANO JOSE 120
10 TOP CROSS PLETCHER TODD A DECARLO C P 116
CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch) will try turf for the first time in Saturday's $1 million Virginia Derby (G2) at Colonial Downs, and after hooking Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]) and Curlin (Smart Strike) in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S. (G1), the Todd Pletcher colt will view this as class relief. Judging by his pedigree, and especially by his encouraging works on the grass, he should handle the surface switch with aplomb. We think that he will follow in the footsteps of his stablemate Panty Raid (Include), who scored in the July 7 American Oaks Invitational S. (G1) in her turf debut.
Boasting by far the best resume in this group, Circular Quay was an impressive winner of the Hopeful S. (G1) as a juvenile as well as the Louisiana Derby (G2) earlier this season. The chestnut performed creditably in the Triple Crown without managing to hit the board. After rallying for a troubled sixth in the Run for the Roses, he crossed the wire in fifth at Pimlico, posting a career-best 106 BRIS Speed rating and a lofty 110 BRIS Late Pace figure. Circular Quay would be compromised by a lack of early pace, but with two uncoupled stablemates in tow here, we suspect that the fractions will be lively in this 1 1/4-mile test. He should produce his powerful late kick beneath Garrett Gomez, who will reunite with the colt for the first time since his runner-up effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).
DUVEEN (Horse Chestnut [SAf]) is another classy closer who would love to see a strong pace. Highly regarded by trainer Dale Romans, the dark bay got up in the last jump of the Palm Beach S. (G3) in his stakes debut, and next time out, he defeated a deep field in the Crown Royal American Turf S. (G3) on Kentucky Oaks Day. Duveen's most recent outing, a second to INCA KING (Sir Cat) in the Jefferson Cup S. (G2), is best ignored. While he endured a nightmare trip, the winner got away with an uncontested lead through slow fractions. The distance should suit Duveen well, and he'll come charging in the stretch. Edgar Prado picks up the mount.
STRIKE A DEAL (Smart Strike) has traded photo-finishes with SUMMER DOLDRUMS (Street Cry [Ire]) recently. In his sophomore debut, Strike a Deal eked out a nose decision in the one-mile Straight Deal S., but he failed by a head in the 1 3/16-mile Colonial Turf Cup S. (G3). Summer Doldrums probably had a fitness edge going a longer distance last time, and he definitely had a cleaner trip. On Saturday, Strike a Deal will be making his third start after a layoff, and he will also have a four-pound advantage over his nemesis at the weights (116 versus 120). For all of these reasons, Strike a Deal is eligible to turn the tables on Summer Doldrums in their rubber match. If the Alan Goldberg pupil takes a sizeable step forward, he could lift the trophy. Note that Ramon Dominguez, who guided him to victory in the Laurel Futurity, will be back aboard.
Summer Doldrums burst onto the Triple Crown trail with a 5 1/4-length romp in the Whirlaway S. in February, but he wasn't able to build on that performance. After finishing third in the Gotham S. (G3) and fourth in the Wood Memorial S. (G1), he rebounded on the turf while staging a thrilling rivalry with Strike a Deal. It would be no surprise if Summer Doldrums continues his progress on the grass and cracks the top three.
Inca King must be respected, not only because he hails from the barn of Steve Asmussen, but particularly because of his tactical speed. Three-for-three on the turf, the dark bay gelding figures to race on or near the early lead, and he will get first run on the closers. Inca King could get softened up by pace pressure while trying to carry his speed 10 furlongs, but he may well be good enough to hang on for a minor award.
TOP CROSS (Gone West) was a non-threatening sixth in the Crown Royal American Turf, but the Pletcher trainee came right back to capture the Lamplighter S. at Monmouth by 3 1/4 lengths against a softer group. The dark bay is an uncertain proposition at this distance, untested beyond 1 1/16 miles with a pedigree suggesting speed. He would help his chances if he sticks to late-running tactics. Pletcher's third entrant, RED GIANT (Giant's Causeway), could use his early speed to hound Inca King. The well bred chestnut is coming off a narrow score in the one-mile Restoration S. versus lesser.
SOLDIER'S DANCER (Lost Soldier) had his moment of graded glory when taking the Tropical Park Derby (G3) on New Year's Day. The gray was just caught by Duveen in the Palm Beach, and last time out, he was a troubled sixth in the Colonial Turf Cup. He's a genuine sort, but looks a cut below the main contenders.
BLAZING DYNAMO (Dynaformer) has no distance questions, as he rolled to a 3 3/4-length tally in an entry-level allowance at this trip at Belmont. The James Toner charge does, however, have class concerns here, so we'll just watch in his stakes debut. LOVE DUBAI (E Dubai) also claims a win at 1 1/4 miles, but that came in an ordinary handicap on the all-weather in England. Last in both the Illinois Derby (G2) and Blue Grass S. (G1), he showed more to get up for fifth in the Colonial Turf Cup, but it's hard to imagine him getting any closer against a tougher bunch here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-CIRCULAR QUAY
2nd-DUVEEN
3rd-STRIKE A DEAL
SAN DIEGO H. (G2), 9TH-DMR, $300,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/16M, 6:00 P.M. (PDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 ARSON SQUAD HEADLEY BRUCE SOLIS A 120
2 SALTY HUMOR MCCARTHY SEAN COURT J K 113
3 SOUL CITY SLEW AGUIRRE PAUL GARCIA MARTIN 113
4 RAISE THE BLUFF O'NEILL DOUG BAZE T C 114
5 BUZZARDS BAY ELLIS RONALD W VALDIVIA J JR 120
6 C'MON TIGER BAFFERT BOB ESPINOZA V 112
7 AWESOME GEM DOLLASE CRAIG FLORES D R 117
8 HEATSEEKER (IRE) FRANKEL ROBERT J TALAMO JOSEPH 113
9 SUN BOAT (GB) MITCHELL MIKE BAZE M C 114
BUZZARDS BAY (Marco Bay) is the horse to beat in Saturday's $300,000 San Diego H. (G2), but we haven't been excited about either of his two efforts so far this year. We'll tab AWESOME GEM (Awesome Again) for the upset.
Winner of the San Fernando Breeders' Cup S. (G2) at Santa Anita earlier this year, the Craig Dollase trainee was freshened following an eighth in the Santa Anita H. (G1) and returned to the races with two solid efforts versus allowance rivals over the Cushion Track, including a one-length score last out in which he registered a 102 BRIS Late Pace rating. Awesome Gem is a strong finisher, earning a 110 Late Pace number in the San Fernando, and he's run well in his last two appearances over synthetic tracks. The four-year-old gelding turned in a sharp six-furlong work earlier this week in preparation, and we'll look for him to come running late for the upset.
ARSON SQUAD (Brahms) has never been on a synthetic track, but the Bruce Headley trainee got acquainted with the Polytrack when working at Del Mar late last week and again on Thursday. We expect him to run well off the freshening. Winner of last year's Swaps Breeders' Cup S. (G2), Arson Squad was last seen posting an authoritative score in the Strub S. (G2) in early February, and he's recorded century-topping Late Pace ratings in his last five races, including a 114 two starts back. The four-year-old gelding looms as a big threat from off the pace, and we won't be surprised to see him return a winner under Alex Solis.
Buzzards Bay owns plenty of back class, and the Grade 1 winner figures to be a heavy favorite here. He's certainly eligible to post his second consecutive victory, but he didn't put away his rivals like we thought he would when hitting the front in the stretch of the Californian S. (G2), holding on to win by a diminishing nose. The Ron Ellis charge then missed his next scheduled start in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), and we question whether Buzzards Bay is at the top of his game physically. He could prove us wrong.
HEATSEEKER (Ire) (Giant's Causeway) will step up for Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel off a victory via disqualification in a turf allowance. The four-year-old colt owns stakes experience, finishing third in the 2005 National S. (Ire-G1) at The Curragh, and good turf form usually transfers well to the Polytrack. Heatseeker will enter this event on the improve and will retain the services of the hot-riding Joseph Talamo. Frankel's runners win at a 26 percent clip with first-time blinkers, and we'll use Heatseeker in some exotics in his first start with the hood.
SUN BOAT (GB) (Machiavellian) was claimed for $50,000 three starts back and just missed when making his stakes bow in the Californian, finishing a fast-closing second. The Mike Mitchell trainee liked the Cushion Track at Hollywood, but that doesn't mean he'll favor the Polytrack, which is a different surface. We recognize his improving form, but we'll go against the former claimer.
C'MON TIGER (Storm Cat) will likely show speed, but we'd be surprised to see him sustain it in his graded debut. RAISE THE BLUFF (Pine Bluff) hasn't started since winning the Santana Mile H. at Santa Anita in mid-March. This is a difficult spot for him to return in, and we'll just watch for now.
SALTY HUMOR (Distorted Humor) and SOUL CITY SLEW (Slew City Slew) both have serious class concerns in this spot.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-AWESOME GEM
2nd-ARSON SQUAD
3rd-BUZZARDS BAY
AMERICAN DERBY (G2), 8TH-AP, $250,000, 3YO, 1 3/16MT, 4:24 P.M. (CDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 PLEASANT STRIKE PLETCHER TODD A DOUGLAS R R 121
2 LOVANGO ROBERTSON MCLEAN EMIGH C A 119
3 GOING BALLISTIC VON HEMEL DONNIE K BERRY M C 121
4 LATTICE MOTT WILLIAM I ALBARADO R J 119
5 SELF MADE MAN MAKER MICHAEL J RAZO E JR 119
6 QUASICOBRA BIANCONE PATRICK L LEPAROUX JULIEN 119
7 SUMAC HALL JOHN L STERLING L J JR 119
8 PERFECT CASTING WELD DERMOT K SMULLEN P J 119
9 EIGHTEENTHOFMARCH GOOD JOHN GRAHAM J 119
Nine three-year-olds will line up for Saturday's American Derby (G2), which is the second leg of Arlington Park's Mid-America Triple and the first of three graded turf stakes on Arlington Million Preview Day. The last four runnings have been won by horses trained by Bill Mott and Dermot Weld, and both have entrants in this year's edition. Moreover, the ubiquitous Todd Pletcher will saddle PLEASANT STRIKE (Smart Strike), the 5-2 morning line favorite, who stormed home by 3 3/4 lengths in the Arlington Classic S. (G3), the first leg of the series that concludes with the Secretariat S. (G1) on August 11.
PERFECT CASTING (Diesis [GB]), who will be making his U.S. debut in the American Derby, easily rates our top choice. Weld is an expert at bringing horses over from Europe to win this event as he did with Evolving Tactics (Ire) and Simple Exchange (Ire) in 2003 and 2004, respectively, and Patrick Smullen, who rode both of those, will be aboard Perfect Casting. The chestnut has been competing over less-than-firm ground in Ireland and should relish the firmer conditions here.
In his debut over good-to-yielding ground, Perfect Casting finished a close second to Alexander of Hales (Danehill), who subsequently won the Gallinule S. (Ire-G3) and most recently finished second in the Irish Derby (Ire-G1). In his next start, Perfect Casting turned back in trip and defeated maidens by open lengths on good-to-firm ground at Leopardstown, then made all the running before holding sway on yielding-to-soft ground at Navan. Perfect Casting drops 10 pounds off his last start and will be equipped with first-time blinkers and Lasix, which only adds to the allure.
LOVANGO (Capote) could add value to the vertical exotics. The bay colt was hung three or four wide around the first turn, made a quick middle move on the outside down the backstretch, advanced three wide around the second turn before challenging for the lead near the quarter-mile pole, then held on well for runner-up honors in the Arlington Classic. Before that, he finished a decent third in the Awad S. over this course in his turf debut. Lovango projects an inside stalking trip and could crash the exotics at a price.
Pleasant Strike was glued to the rail around both turns before angling out nicely at the top of stretch and drawing off under a hand ride to win the Arlington Classic. Our only concern is that he got a perfect stalking trip on the lawn at Keeneland, only to be outfinished by LATTICE (Arch) when finishing a one-paced third. Pleasant Strike, who seems to be improving, will be hard to keep out of the trifecta under leading rider Rene Douglas.
Lattice had a hard way to go when they went slow early and flew home late in the Jefferson Cup S. (G2) at Churchill Downs. The Mott trainee was under a hold from between foes around the first turn, raced in a pocket along the inside, angled out turning for home, then finished evenly for fourth. It should be noted that the winner, Inca King (Sir Cat), finished his final three-eighths in :34 1/5 and his final eighth-mile in :11 2/5. Lattice, whose only other loss was to Inca King at Keeneland, is our sleeper.
GOING BALLISTIC (Lite the Fuse), whose great grandfather won this race when it was on dirt, owns a 5-3-1-1 record on turf. The gray colt closed determinedly to win the grassy U.S.A. S. on soft ground at Lone Star Park before finishing a decent third in the Iowa Derby in his last start. He has some upset potential and could be a useful sort to throw in on the bottom of the exotics. QUASICOBRA (Wild Rush) dropped back inexplicably going into the far turn, then offered a mild rally along the inside before finishing a non-threatening third in the Arlington Classic. The Patrick Biancone charge was disqualified from his lone turf victory and would have to improve significantly to take home the trophy.
SELF MADE MAN (Catienus) has improved noticeably since breaking his maiden by 12 1/2 lengths for a $7,500 tag and being switched to the turf. He is hard to recommend at this level. EIGHTEENTHOFMARCH (Wild Event) won over this course two back, then was a closing fifth in the Awad. He has trained well since then but would be a surprise. SUMAC (Crafty Prospector) ships in from Prairie Meadows after finishing on the fringes in a pair of stakes. He is in the tall grass with these.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-PERFECT CASTING
2nd-LOVANGO
3rd-PLEASANT STRIKE
ARLINGTON H. (G3), 9TH-AP, $200,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/4MT, 4:54 P.M. (CDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 REVVED UP CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE DOUGLAS R R 117
2 COME ON JAZZ WILLIAMSON BRIAN EMIGH C A 114
3 MEADOW VESPERS RETTELE RICHARD DOSER M E 116
4 GO BETWEEN MOTT WILLIAM I ALBARADO R J 116
5 GRAY SUITOR MOTION H GRAHAM ROSE J 114
6 CLOUDY'S KNIGHT KIRBY FRANK J ZIMMERMAN R 117
7 LORD CARMEN KIRBY FRANK J PENALBA C 113
8 COSMONAUT BIANCONE PATRICK L LEPAROUX JULIEN 121
9 MURCH PITTS HELEN GRAHAM J 113
10 I BELIEVE IN ME MCGEE PAUL STERLING L J JR 113
11 GREEN LEMON MOTION H GRAHAM CAMPBELL J M 114
COSMONAUT (Lemon Drop Kid) is back to defend his title in Saturday's $200,000 Arlington H. (G3). An easy 2 1/4-length scorer last year, the five-year-old gray enters the 2007 edition in good form, recording a fast-finishing second in the Dixie S. (G2) two back and an excellent fourth, beaten only three parts of a length, in the Manhattan H. (G1) most recently. He'll be close to the pace with Julien Leparoux, and Cosmonaut's BRIS numbers lay over his rivals. He's well spotted to get a win in his final prep for the Arlington Million (G1) on August 11.
Canadian Grade 2 hero REVVED UP (Sultry Song) is one-for-one over the course, winning the 2005 Stars and Stripes Breeders' Cup Turf H. (G3), and the long-distance specialist has been freshened for this event by Christophe Clement. Revved Up runs well with some time between starts, captured last year's Bob Harding S. off a similar layoff, and he's capable of more than he showed in Florida earlier this year. The gray gelding will be saving ground from the rail with Rene Douglas, and Revved Up can complete the exacta.
GO BETWEEN (Point Given) is a logical contender. Winner of last year's Virginia Derby (G2), the Bill Mott trainee has raced five times in 2007, most recently finishing second in the Opening Verse H. at Churchill. We were expecting to see a little more from the four-year-old this season, but we still respect his chances under Robby Albarado.
GRAY SUITOR (Maria's Mon) owns a good late kick, registering a 105 BRIS Late Pace figure last time, and he's one to consider for the bottom of the exotics at long odds. He'll be tested for class, but Gray Suitor's recent form is encouraging.
CLOUDY'S KNIGHT (Lord Avie) is another top three candidate. A Grade 3 winner earlier this year, he just missed in the Stars and Stripes last out, dueling through deep stretch before falling a nose short. That could be a difficult effort to rebound from, but Cloudy's Knight has the ability to be a serious factor if ready. GREEN LEMON (Lemon Drop Kid) will have to overcome a tough outside post, but we like the trainer switch to Graham Motion and the four-year-old has shown some promise at longer distances previously. Third in last year's National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame S. (G2), Green Lemon ran well in his first start back off a lengthy layoff earlier this year and could be ready to deliver a good showing here.
I BELIEVE IN ME (Giant's Causeway) will likely be a pace factor, but he didn't run well stepping up in class and distance two starts back. LORD CARMEN (Ordway) is a three-time winner over the course, but he doesn't appear to be at his best presently. COME ON JAZZ (Jambalaya Jazz) was no factor in the Stars and Stripes and probably needs an easier spot to be effective. MURCH (Mr. Greeley) will need to turn things around significantly. MEADOW VESPERS (Meadow Prayer) looks overmatched.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-COSMONAUT
2nd-REVVED UP
3rd-GO BETWEEN
MODESTY H. (G3), 10TH-AP, $150,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 3/16MT, 5:24 P.M. (CDT), 7-21
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 ALMONSOON PLETCHER TODD A DOUGLAS R R 114
2 JENNIE R. BOYCE MICHELE BAIRD E T 114
3 MABADI SWEARINGEN TOM H CAMPBELL J M 117
4 BRIDGE GAME MOTION H GRAHAM ROSE J 116
5 BROWNIE POINTS VON HEMEL DONNIE K QUINONEZ L S 117
6 CHIC DANCER JANKS CHRISTINE K EMIGH C A 115
7 SOHGOL (IRE) DRYSDALE NEIL ALBARADO R J 118
8 RICH IN SPIRIT PROCTOR THOMAS F LEPAROUX JULIEN 115
Eight turf distaffers will settle Saturday's $150,000 Modesty H. (G3), and it's difficult to imagine this race having much impact upon the $750,000 Beverly D. S. (G1) on August 11. Southern California shipper MABADI (Sahm) is listed as the 5-2 favorite on the morning line, but we'll pursue value with BRIDGE GAME (Giant's Causeway).
Trained by Graham Motion, Bridge Game has run well in all four starts this year, recording a 2-1-1 record, and exits a better-than-appears third in the All Along Breeders' Cup S. (G3) last out at Colonial Downs. She was too far back early and lost valuable ground when forced extremely wide into the stretch, netting a 102 BRIS Late Pace rating for her fast-closing finish. The dark bay lass owns more tactical speed than she displayed that afternoon, and we'll look for an improved showing at Arlington. Bridge Game is two-for-two over the Chicago turf course, breaking her maiden and capturing an allowance/optional claiming event last season, and we like the way she's headed presently for Motion. Her early price (10-1 on the morning line) is attractive.
ALMONSOON (Giant's Causeway) must be respected. A sharp allowance winner three starts back, the four-year-old filly recorded a commendable second in the Orchid H. (G3) next out. She didn't fire her best effort last time at Churchill, but the chestnut has been freshened and appears to be training well for her return. Rene Douglas is winning at a 35 percent clip with Todd Pletcher over the last 60 days, and Almonsoon will be able to save ground from her rail post. She'll probably be in the thick of things, challenging for it all, when the field turns for home.
CHIC DANCER (Joyeux Danseur) is an Arlington specialist (14-7-4-1) and brings solid form into this event, finishing second in the Possibly Perfect S. last out. She has to overcome a case of seconditis (runner-up in her last three outings), but the Christine Janks-trained mare ran a big race when capturing last year's Modesty and is a candidate to repeat.
JENNIE R. (Awesome Again) will likely show speed and merits consideration for the exotics off her recent efforts. The six-year-old mare will be tested for class, but she's bred to handle longer distances and looms as a threat to hold for part.
Mabadi exits a fourth to the mighty Citronnade (Lemon Drop Kid) in the Beverly Hills H. (G2), but we can't get too excited about her previous form. The late-running filly figures to appreciate the 1 3/16-mile distance, but she looks like a probable underlay. SOHGOL (Ire) (Singspiel [Ire]) has also shipped in from California and recorded a good second in the one-mile Wilshire H. (G3) two starts back. The Neil Drysdale runner hasn't been much of a factor in her last few starts at longer distances, and we'll just watch to see how she performs here.
BROWNIE POINTS (Forest Wildcat) is a four-time winner on turf and recorded a good second to Lady of Venice (Fr) (Loup Solitaire) in the Ouija Board Distaff H. (G3) two starts back. The versatile Donnie Von Hemel trainee exits a win over the main track in the Iowa Distaff Breeders' Cup S., but Saturday's 1 3/16-mile distance doesn't look like the ideal trip for the four-year-old. Brownie Points has never even been nine furlongs.
RICH IN SPIRIT (Repriced) owns some back class, but her recent form is discouraging.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-BRIDGE GAME
2nd-ALMONSOON
3rd-CHIC DANCER
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Del Mar for Saturday July 21, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Del Mar
Del Mar - Race #7 - Post: 5:05pm
Rating: 4
Choice Plays:
#1A PRIVATE BANKING (FR) (ML=8/1)
#5 DOUBLE TROUBLE (BRZ) (ML=2/1)
#8 ARM CANDY (IRE) (ML=3/1)
PRIVATE BANKING (FR) - Based on her last TrackMaster turf fig alone, I'm going to play this thoroughbred. When I handicap a grass race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This mount has the highest average class in the entire group. Had a solid closing move last out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar performance today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. DOUBLE TROUBLE (BRZ) - Owns the highest speed rating on the turf at this distance. I took a look at this filly's finishes. She's almost always on the board. This jockey and trainer have a profitable ROI when they work together. Came home fast in the last race at Hollywood Park. That type of move bodes well for her chances in this event. ARM CANDY (IRE) - Average Equibase class figure is tops in this bunch. I think that is a big edge for a race on the turf. When Espinoza and Cecil combine forces on animals the return on investment has been fantastic at +75. The 112 most recent race speed fig looks sound on paper.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 KRIS' SIS (ML=7/2), #1 GRECIAN (ARG) (ML=8/1), #7 FLEETHEART (ML=8/1)
KRIS' SIS - This entrant will in all probability be way back as this field crosses the finish line. GRECIAN (ARG) - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with morning line odds of 8/1. Hard to put your money on this speed merchant. Too much zip in the event. FLEETHEART - All kinds of crazy speed on board for this event. Little chance for this early speedster.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PRIVATE BANKING (FR) - This mare doesn't have to improve too much to win this race. Definitely worth a prime bet.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 Entry to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,5,8] with [1,5,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] Total Cost: $36
__________________
Calder
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
7 BRITTEN'S BEAUTY is back with maidens after rallying 3-wide to finish second to undefeated Yonagucci in the $100K J J's Dream. Trainer Milt Wolfson has Manoel Cruz atop the daughter of Doneraile Court. 6 AT FIRST GLANCE, a daughter of Holy Bull, is hoping to compete on a fast surface after finishing a strong second in a pair of maiden special weight sprints on sealed 'sloppy' tracks. 1 PHALEONOPSIS will be outfitted with blinkers after recovering from a poor start to get beat 3 1/4 lengths in her $25K debut.
7-6-1
Race 2 -
3 CLEVER DAME needs to find a little more for the stretch drive after dueling from start-to-finish and getting out-gamed at the wire when beaten three-quarters of a length at this level and distance. 4 PERFECT LIE is stretching out around 2-turns with the ideal running style needed to reel in what should be a hot and heavy pace scenario. Note that trainer Bill White is 30% with horses stretching out in distance. 6 GOLDEN CITIES drops to the $16K level after setting the pace and fading late in a pair of $25K 'two-lifetime' claimers at a mile and a sixteenth.
3-4-6
Race 3 -
6 GOLDEN SPIKES, a beautifully bred $250K son of Seeking The Gold, debuts for trainer Marty Wolfson with 5 local workouts showing, including a half-mile bullet on July 8, in preparation for this assignment. 10 DYNHOCRACY is a son of Adhocracy debuting for trainer Bill Kaplan with a string of solid workouts posted. Note that trainer Kaplan has a 33% win average with his freshman runners. 3 ALL EXPENSES PAID, a son of Trippi, hopes to live up to his name when he tries to win at first asking for the always-dangerous Ed Plesa Jr. barn. 8 JOEY THE SCHOLAR, a half to local stakes winner Donthelumbertrader, has worked good enough to be a factor in his debut.
6-10-3-8
Race 4 -
2 SOLDIER'S WORD is stretching out after notching his second consecutive victory when beating this level of competition at a mile & 70 yards. 7 BANDIT NAILHEAD will stretch out to a mile and a sixteenth after dueling and fading to finish third behind Soldier's Word last out. 3 MR. WILLIE JOE drops to the bottom after hitting the board in 1 of 2 recent outings vs. $8K claimers. 10 POUNDCAKE moved to the Greg Griffith barn via the claim after he was eased, as the odds-on choice, in a slop race at this level and distance (June 18). The solid half-mile drill on July 6 indicates the gelding is back on track.
2-7-3-10
Race 5 - THE NOBLE ROBYN
1 SNOW CONE has been dodging raindrops since mid-May hoping to get back on the turf after finishing second in front of next-out winners Dantrelle Light & Diamond Dina in the $75K Ga. Oaks (May 5). 4 CASA MIMATY, cross-entered on the dirt in The Nancy's Glitter Handicap (Race 11) has been a sensation winning back-to-back races on the main track by open lengths. However her ability to handle the turf in winning fashion is still a work in progress. 6 COZZI CAPITAL, a beautifully bred daughter of Cozzene, will step up the competition trying to keep her record on the Calder turf unblemished (2-2-0-0).
1-4-6
Race 6 -
3 BELLA CARINA, beaten a half-length at this level and distance on June 24, is back with maidens after showing early interest and fading behind undefeated Yonagucci in the $100K J J's Dream. 4 FULL EXCHANGE is stretching out around 1-turn after encountering early trouble (awkward start, steadied) and still managing to finish third in her 2-furlong debut. 2 HER GREATNESS may have tipped her hand when she worked a 5-furlong bullet here on Monday in preparation for her career debut. 6 INCENDIARY is stretching out after finishing second - beaten a half-length - in a pair of 2-furlong dashes vs. $40K maidens.
3-4-2-6
Race 7 -
11 RING THE REGISTER is stretching out after encountering trouble on the turn (steadied) when finishing fourth in a 'key' 7 1/2-furlong affair that produced next-out winners Saviano, Magic Monde & Minidrop. His biggest challenge will surely come from 8 EASTERN SEABOARD. The gelding, third in front of Ring The Register on May 19, returns to the turf after a troubled trip (bumped start, checked backstretch) at this level on the main track. 9 TOMS MULLIGAN makes his first start since finishing a troubled third (steadied both turns) behind repeat winner Notice Me Now at this level on May 19. 4 MIDATLANTIC, 2 for 3 in the money on the turf, returns to the lawn after finishing third vs. $16K 'two-lifetime' claimers on the dirt.
11-8-9-4
Race 8 -
5 STYLISH JOE and 1 UNIMPEDED renew the rivalry after finishing first & second, respectively, at this distance on June 29. The former, trained by Marty Wolfson, is reunited with apprentice Jermaine Bridgmohan while the latter, conditioned by Tom Schell, gets the services of 10-pound bug Jose Ortiz after breaking awkwardly in the slop and finishing fourth in the rained out $100K Turf Sprint Handicap. 2 TALE OF A MONSTER will face multiple winners after holding on gamely to break his maiden for trainer Wesley Ward, who is winning races here at a 31% clip.
5-1-2
Race 9 -
12 MAX'S IS LOOSE, second vs. better on the turf during May & June, returns to the grass after chasing the pace and fading vs. $40K maidens on a 'fast' track. 7 ROYAL PARK, a regally bred son of Royal Academy, out of the Nureyev mare Nureyev's Park, debuts on the lawn after finishing second in a $32K maiden test moved to a sealed 'fast' track. Note that trainer Bill White has a 29% average with horses making their second start. 8 MOUNTAIN MYTH, a respectable third on the turf at this level on May 25, returns to the lawn after hitting the board in 1 of 2 recent outings vs. similar on wet tracks. 10 PERFECT CRUISE makes his first journey since finishing fourth in a 'key' maiden event at Laurel during 2005 that produced 4 next-out winners.
12-7-8-10
Race 10 -
1 SURREALDEAL is back with maidens after rallying on a sealed 'sloppy' track to finish second to Big City Man in the $100K Criterium Stakes. 10 COOKSON is hoping for a clean trip after altering course in the stretch when finishing second in his career debut at this level and distance. 8 JOE FIVE renews the rivalry with Cookson after responding to the addition of Lasix with a third place finish behind him last out. Trainer Frank Gomez teams with leading apprentice David Cardoso. 12 STRAIGHT MONEY MAN has trained consistently enough to be a factor in his career debut for trainer Bill Kaplan, who has 33% win average with his juveniles.
1-10-8-12
Race 11 - THE NANCY'S GLITTER HANDICAP
8 POTRA CLASICA, a versatile daughter of Potrillion, who is 4 for 7 on the Calder main track, and 3-2-1-0 on wet surfaces, returns to the dirt after finishing second on the turf in the $45K Liberada. 4 CASA MIMATY, cross entered on the turf in the Noble Robyn, looks strong if trainer Luis Olivares opts to run her here. The daughter of Waquoit is looking for her third straight victory on the dirt, which includes the 7-length score on a sealed 'sloppy' track in the Sweettrickydancer last out. 6 CAT CAN DO, competitive with this level of competition on the dirt, returns to the main track after fading to finish seventh on the grass in the Liberada. 2 MIA'S REFLECTION stretches out after she finished second and was placed first via a steward's decision in the $50K Ms. Brookski, which was moved to a sealed 'sloppy' track.
8-4-6-2
Race 12 -
1 TRI TO DANCE had her $40K victory on June 22 vs. this caliber of competition validated when second place finisher 6 SISTER SISSY drew clear to wallop $25K conditioned claimers on July 5 by 14 1/2 lengths. The rematch between the top two selections should be worth the price of admission. 5 WILD LISA will face winners at 8 furlongs after using her speed to defeat a group of maiden special runners at a mile & 70 yards. Trainer Steve Dwoskin has leading rider Elvis Trujillo atop the lightly raced daughter of Wild Again.
1-6-5
Race 13 -
6 SPOILED ROYALITY, now in the Steve Standridge barn, will face bottom level maidens at 5 1/2 furlongs after setting the pace and fading to finish second vs. $16K types at three-quarters of a mile. 7 CIRCLETHEBASES is hoping to hit one out of the park at the $12.5K level after encountering trouble when facing $16K maidens at Gulfstream during Feb. & Mar. 4 ZAGUMP is stretching out to 5 1/2 furlongs after pressing the pace and tiring to finish fourth vs. similar at five-eighths of a mile. 9 LEAD ON, a $27K son of Lemon Drop Kid, debuts vs. bottom level foes off a series of 'out of town' workouts, and one local half-mile gate work in : 50 & 1. Trainer Bill White sweetens the deal with Lasix & leading jock Elvis Trujillo.
BEST BET: RACE 11 - POTRA CLASICA
LONG SHOT: RACE 9 - RIOT'S APPLE
6-7-4-9
__________________
maddux sports
Cleveland -140
jeff alexander
San Diego -122 (listing Wells)
The Phillies are just 9-25 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season and 2-8 against the money line with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games this season. Wells has been on fire winning each of his last 3 starts against the ML with an ERA of just 2.30. Take the Padres
info plays
3* on Pittsburgh +103 (Listing Rodriguez and Maholm)
Pittsburgh is 12-5 against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Rodriguez is 4-13 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are just 11-20 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. We'll side with Pittsburgh at home today.
black widow
Florida -125 (listing Kim)
Florida will silence the Reds at home today. Plays on Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (FLORIDA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season-NL, in July games are 34-12 (73.9%) the last 5 seasons. The Reds are just 3-13 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. Watch these unique systems work like a charm. We'll make a small play on the Marlins in this one.
priceless picks
Houston -111 (listing Rodriguez)
Rodriguez is 11-3 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are just 7-20 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. Pittsburgh is a pathetic 62-114 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 since 1997. Both teams are struggling right now, but Houston gets the edge Rodriguez on the hill.
black magic
Toronto -113 (listing Weaver and Towers)
Seattle is just 6-21 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Weaver is 0-4 on the road this season with an ERA of 7.92. With the success Toronto has had at home against the Mariners the last 3 seasons, we won't hesitate to pull the trigger on them today
locksmith sports
Cleveland -134 (listing Lee)
Cleveland owns the Rangers having won all 4 meetings against them this season. Texas is just 6-24 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Texas is losing these games by over 2 runs per game. Take the Indians
Cappersaccess
(Sat) MLB Blue Jays Mariners 110 Blue Jays
(Sat) MLB Astros Pirates 110 Pirates
dave price
MLB Houston vs. Pittsburgh []
Take Houston Astros
1 Unit on Houston -111 (listing Rodriguez) Rodriguez is 11-3 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are just 7-20 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. Pittsburgh is a pathetic 62-114 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 since 1997. Both teams are struggling right now, but Houston gets the edge Rodriguez on the hill.
jimmy boyd
MLB Cleveland vs. Texas []
Take Cleveland Indians
1* Cleveland -134 (listing Lee) Cleveland owns the Rangers having won all 4 meetings against them this season. Texas is just 6-24 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Texas is losing these games by over 2 runs per game. Take the Indians.
billy young
Take Florida Marlins
on Florida -130 (listing Kim) Florida will silence the Reds at home today. Plays on Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (FLORIDA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season-NL, in July games are 34-12 (73.9%) the last 5 seasons. The Reds are just 3-13 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. Watch these unique systems work like a charm. We'll make a small play on the Marlins in this one.
john martin
MLB Seattle vs. Toronto []
Take Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto -113 (listing Weaver and Towers) Seattle is just 6-21 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Weaver is 0-4 on the road this season with an ERA of 7.92. With the success Toronto has had at home against the Mariners the last 3 seasons, we won't hesitate to pull the trigger on them today.
larry cook
MLB Houston vs. Pittsburgh []
Take Pittsburgh Pirates
3* on Pittsburgh +103 (Listing Rodriguez and Maholm) Pittsburgh is 12-5 against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Rodriguez is 4-13 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are just 11-20 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. We'll side with Pittsburgh at home today
Jimmy The Moose
Game: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers Jul 21 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: The Giants have lost 7 of their last 10 games. In their last 27 games as the underdog the Giants are 8-19. In their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning record San Francisco is a horrible 6-17. The Giants are 1-4 in Lincecum's last 5 road starts. Milwaukee has won their last 5 games vs. right handed starters. Bush is on the mound this afternoon and the Brewers are 5-1 in his last 6 starts. In his last 4 starts as the favorite Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0. The Giants are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings between the teams and 2-10 in their last 12 visits to Milwaukee. Play on the Brewers -.
Alex Smart
Game: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers Jul 21 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: The Milwaukee Bucks continue to run hot having won 5 of their L/7 games, and have owned this SF Giants team in the recent past having won 7 of the L/8 games in this series. With the Giants in bad current form having lost 7 of their L/9 overall and batting just .228 as a team in their L/10 overall it will be an easy decision to fade them again, no matter who they send to the hill to face the Brewers. Final notes & Key Trends:. The Brewers are 17-3 on home turf vs a National league team like the Giants with a .250 or less batting average on the season. Play on Milwaukee
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers Jul 21 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: At 3:55pm our complimentary selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. Giants outfielder Barry Bonds is now only two home runs shy of Hank Aaron's career record of 755 and he may tie or even break the record at this series in Milwaukee, which would be ironic since Milwaukee is where Aaron used to play his games before the Braves moved to Atlanta. But Milwaukee has other things to think about this weekend, like holding on to their lead in the NL Central division and getting home field advantage in the playoffs so they will have a good shot at winning their first league title since 1982. And this should be a great opportunity for Milwaukee to pad that lead as they have domintated the Giants at home recently, as prior to Friday's San Francisco victory, the Brewers had taken seven straight games vs. the Giants at Miller Park and ten of the last eleven. Two righthanders go against each other in this one as the Giants rookie Tim Lincecum will face off against the Brewers Dave Bush. Lincecum is hoping that this trip to the beer capital of the U.S. turns out better than his last one, having gotten shelled against the Brewers on June 19 in Milwaukee, giving up six earned runs in only four innings on that day. Lincecum also has to worry about the fact that this is a day game as he is 1-1 with a 7.48 ERA in afternoon starts. The circus-like atmosphere that is sure to be surrounding Miller Park this weekend as Bonds goes for the title is likely to adversely effect the Giants more than the Brewers. Take Milwaukee
Ben Burns
Game: Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics Jul 21 2007 9:05PM
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
Reason: The A's lost yesterday's opener but they should have a major advantage this evening. Haren is 6-1 (Oakland is 8-2) in 10 home starts with a simply stellar 2.30 ERA and 0.981 WHIP. Trachsel, on the other hand, is 2-6 (Baltimore is 2-8) with an ugly 5.87 ERA and 1.639 WHIP in 10 road starts. He's been brutal lately, regardless of where he has pitched. In fact, Trachsel is 0-2 (team is 0-3) with an atrocious 13.06 ERA and 2.805 WHIP over his last three starts! Haren has already beaten the Orioles twice this season. Look for Haren and the A's to "get healthy" tonight as they drop their guests to 0-4 when listed as road underdogs in the +175 to +200 range. Consider "laying the price" with OAKLAND
NSA MLB - Atlanta over 9 ]
2. VegasSI.com MLB - Texas over 11
3. Doc's Sports Handicappers MLB - Cincinnati +130
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Detroit over 9
5. Gameday Network MLB - Phillies under 8.5
6. Tony Campone MLB - Seattle over 10.5
7. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Phillies +120
8. Fred Callahan MLB - Yankees over 11(Gm1)
9. Vincent Pioli MLB - Giants +125 ]
10. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Detroit over 9
1. Charlies Sports MLB - Colorado under 9
sports prevue
Saturday July 21, 2007
Start Time: 1:05 p.m. EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks (50-48) at Chicago Cubs (51-44)
Starting pitchers: Micah Owings (5-5, 4.92) vs. Rich Hill (6-6, 3.70)
Arizona committed two errors in Friday's 6-2 loss at Chicago,
falling as 105 road underdogs. The eight runs scored were a push
with the posted total of 8.
Pick: Chicago Cubs -165
Robert Ross
Cincinnati Reds at Florida Marlins
Saturday, July 21st, 7:05 P.M. EST EST
One-sided loss last night dropped the Reds to 10-5 under interim Manager Pete Mackanin. Don't think the Marlins have it in them to beat the Reds two straight. CINCINNATI is 26-19 against the money line in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. FLORIDA is 13-22 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
Good Luck. - Robert Ross
big al
Cincy Reds (Livingston) and Florida Marlins (Kim) 'over the total
Wise Owl Game of the Day - Texas Rangers
Straley Game of the Day - Blue Jays Over
Bobby Maxwell
we're laying very small chalk and going with the Astros as they take on the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are just 2-6 in Paul Maholm's last eight home starts and just 6-13 in his 19 starts this season. He's had horrible luck and just doesn't pitch well enough to keep Pittsburgh in this one tonight.
Maholm (5-12, 4.68 ERA) is going up against the Astros' Wandy Rodriguez (6-8, 4.33) in this battle of lefties. Rodriguez is 2-1 in his last three outings with a 3.26 ERA.
Rodriguez threw two shutouts just before the All-Star break, blanking the Rockies and Mets, but his first start of the second half was tough as he gave up seven runs on nine hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Cubs. He faced the Pirates back on April 26 and gave up three runs on five hits in seven innings of a 5-3 loss.
Maholm has given up three or more runs in seven of his last nine starts and the Pirates have lost six of his last nine. He's made five career starts against the Astros and has given up three or more runs four of the five outings.
The Astros are hitting .278 against lefties this season and should be able to get to Maholm for some runs tonight. Play Houston.
2♦ HOUSTON