Here is Graham Houstons pick...he went perfect this week and picked all four super fights correctly last weekend (including both underdogs (Gomez and Williams).
BERNARD HOPKINS vs WINKY WRIGHT
Location:
Mandalay Bay casino resort, LAS VEGAS, July 21
Graham's Odds:
Hopkins +105; Wright -115
Over 11.5 -500; under 11.5 +350
Main Body:
A few years ago the thought of Bernard Hopkins and Winky Wright meeting in a pay-per-view main event would not even have been on the boxing radar, but it’s happening. On Saturday, the two veterans with a combined age of 77 — and ring experience of 36 years between them — meet at the Mandalay Bay casino resort in Las Vegas in a 12-rounder made at the catchweight of 170 pounds.
Why, you may ask, is this fight happening?
Really, it is quite simple. Hopkins and Wright have name recognition. Even casual followers of boxing have heard of them. The fight can be marketed: Hopkins, the ageless wonder, Wright, the craftsman with the style that has proved a conundrum to so many good fighters.
There is something else to consider, though: this is a meeting of two of the best fighters in the business.
In this cynical world of ours it is easy to assume that Hopkins is just taking the fight for one last payday — but one thing I do know is that the 42-year-old does not like to lose. Hopkins’s legacy means a lot to him. If the Philadelphia Executioner can beat Wright it will put the seal on a remarkable career — or lead to yet another PPV event. With Hopkins you never can tell what he will do: the promise he made to his ailing mother not to fight past the age of 40 (or was it 41?) seems long forgotten.
As for Wright, after so many years of fighting overseas and on big-fight undercards, he seems to me to be at the top of his form and loving the superfight spotlight. A win over Hopkins, and the future could hold major bouts against the likes of Joe Calzaghe and Mikkel Kessler at 168 pounds among other financially attractive options.
So there is a lot at stake for these long-serving professionals: each has incentive.
Hopkins, as ever the great salesman, is playing up rather than playing down the age factor. “Do you know,” he said to Wright at the Las Vegas press conference to announce the fight, “that you’re gonna get beaten up by a senior citizen?”
There is, then, a story line here: Hopkins seeking to continue to defy age, Wright moving up in weight, each man looking to add to his legacy.
It was clear to me, observing Hopkins at the Las Vegas conference, that he had made up his mind right away to try to intimidate Wright and get him rattled and a bit unnerved and this continued even at today's weigh-in. This worked last year when Hopkins seemed to have Antonio Tarver beaten mentally, even before a punch was thrown. Wright, a comparative youngster at 35 (but who made his pro debut just two years after Hopkins turned professional), has always been sturdy mentally, though.
Hopkins’s putdowns include the line: “How can I look back at my record and see that I was beaten by a guy named Winky?” Wright shrugs off the mocking manner in which Hopkins addresses him. Winky does not have his opponent’s glibness and is always likely to be outpointed verbally by Hopkins but there seems a quiet certitude about Wright, that of a man who prefers to let his fists do the talking.
Now, with the fight a day away as I write, I still get the sense with Wright that he is very sure in his own mind that he will win. He had the same sort of demeanour prior to the upset victories over Shane Mosley and Felix Trinidad.
The odds have tilted slightly in favour of Wright, but most people see this as basically an even fight. Hopkins is taller and many will assume that he is going to be the bigger, stronger man in the ring, having fought as a light-heavyweight in his last fight when he outclassed Antonio Tarver. Wright, though, came in right on the 170-pound limit at today’s weigh-in, as did Hopkins. Winky walks around at about 185 pounds and his trainer, Dan Birmingham, praises the excellent work of strength coach, Darryl Hudson, who did an outstanding job in ensuring that Wright was a strong 160-pounder for the move up from junior middleweight to meet Trinidad. Birmingham, says that Hopkins will be surprised by Wright’s strength on Saturday, and he could be right.
There is no secret about what Wright will be doing in Saturday’s fight: he will be coming out to set a fast pace and keep the right jab pumping from out of his southpaw stance. Hopkins, who trained under the direction of Freddie Roach in Los Angeles, will be seeking to land the harder shots, looking to hurt Wright and slow him down.
Yet, while Hopkins is an amazing individual, Father Time does have a way of catching up with everyone. I have thought for some time now that Hopkins feels the need to pace himself, picking his moments to fight. I thought this when he outpointed the durable but outclassed Howard Eastman and when he gave away early rounds by husbanding his resources in the two very close fights with Jermain Taylor.
While Hopkins looked tremendous in his easy win over Tarver, I was astonished at the weak effort of the supposedly bigger man. Maybe Hopkins was so much better than Tarver that he made him look like a novice, but another possibility is that Tarver’s weight loss after playing the heavyweight champion in
Rocky Balboa had something to do with his lethargy. (Tarver himself has lately gone on record as saying he thinks he was somehow poisoned prior to going into the ring.) Certainly it was not the Tarver who had won two out of three bouts with Roy Jones Jr. and outworked Glen Johnson in their rematch. I have to wonder if too much emphasis is being placed on Hopkins’s mastery of Tarver, as, perhaps, too much was made of Antonio Margarito’s blowout of a Kermit Cintron who has always maintained he just “wasn’t there” that night.
Unlike Tarver, I doubt very much if Wright will let Hopkins coast through the fight and dominate with bursts of punches. I expect Wright to be on top of Hopkins from the first bell, pushing forward confidently. Perhaps Hopkins can take some of that confidence out of him with his well-placed, hurtful punches, but Wright’s defence — gloves up, elbows tucked in — is so sound that even Hopkins might have difficulty penetrating it.
Hopkins, of course, has done very well against southpaws — the wins over Tarver, Robert Allen, Carl Daniels, Joe Lipsey, John David Jackson, Keith Holmes and Syd Vanderpool all spring to mind — but I do not think he has met a southpaw quite like Winky.
The meeting is billed as
Coming to Fight and I think it will be a fight, too, not the chess match that some fear. I doubt if it will be dramatic but I do think it will be engrossing and entertaining.
As to the winner, I will go with Wright. Hopkins can never be underestimated but I think that to beat Wright he has to be able to fight hard and keep firing shots in a consistent manner, in every round, and I just do not think he can produce the activity level he will need at the age of 42. Hopkins’s spurts and hard single shots with the right hand are likely to keep rounds close, but when he looks to take some time off, as I believe he will, is when Wright can go to work with the jabs and the busy punching for which he is well known. I believe that when Hopkins seeks to rest, Wright will keep pushing on, and I think that this is what will win the fight for Winky, on points.
HOUSTON PICK: Winky Wright