Rangers -120
There is not a team on the card in my opinion whose market price is deviating from their true worth more than the Rangers. After battling early season struggles and injuries, Millwood appears to have slowly gotten things back on track, as he enters tonight’s game with six straight quality starts. During this span, he has lowered his flyball/groundball ratio (which has been the main reasons for his home struggles since joining the Rangers, as it is an unforgiving park for flyball pitchers). He has also increased his strikeout rate, decreased his hit rate and well hit rate, and has now gone five straight starts without allowing a home run- all fundamental signs pointing he is finally back to form. Despite being the fourth start against the Mariners this year, this will be the first start in which he has faced them since he can be considered “himself”. During last years “off-season” Millwood still managed to have success against this lineup, which is not much of a surprise, as aside from Suzuki, the Mariners simply lack the ideal threats from the left side to take advantage of Millwood’s fundamental deficiencies he has as a pitcher. The Mariners have shown signs of slowdown since the break, and enter today’s game with two straight goose eggs against right handed pitchers (including one against a struggling pitcher). The catalyst of their offense is no doubt Suzuki, a leadoff hitter hitting just .250 this month, and is hitless in his last eight at bats. Millwood is a savvy veteran who could make the aggressiveness the Mariners hitters have at the plate work against them, much like the last two right handers did against them. The Rangers have one of the deeper and more underrated bullpens in baseball, and have the ideal depth to not make the injury to Otsuka be one they can not overcome.
Millwood is not the only variable for the Rangers that appear to be heading in the right track, as their lineup has shown cohesiveness that has resulted in wins this month. The Rangers have managed to win half their games this month, despite having to play 60 percent of them against the Angels, Red Sox and Indians. Their improved play appears to be most notable at home, while the return of Texeria has finally made their lineup a threat. Today they have a good chance to continue their upward trend against a pitcher that hasn’t seemed right for years, as a series of injuries has taken a chronic effect on his efficiency. Although his ERA over the last three years clearly identifies a liability on the mound, his pitching peripherals show a much more vulnerable pitcher. Ramirez, even when right, has never been a good road pitcher, a trend that appears to be getting progressively worse. In this years limited road action; he is taking it to an entirely different level, entering this game allowing 23 runs in just 15 innings of work. His high walk total is a deficiency that can prove costly in this park, as the last thing you want to give is free baserunners here. The Mariners thought his saving grace would be his effectiveness against left handed bats, a variable that has become less effective each year, and in current form is a non factor. His off-speed pitch has been completely ineffective this season, forcing him to have to rely on his sub par fastball more than he would like, and a pitch this Rangers lineup has been tearing up. The Mariners front end bullpen has been struggling of late, a portion that appears unavoidable for Ramirez.
There is not a team on the card in my opinion whose market price is deviating from their true worth more than the Rangers. After battling early season struggles and injuries, Millwood appears to have slowly gotten things back on track, as he enters tonight’s game with six straight quality starts. During this span, he has lowered his flyball/groundball ratio (which has been the main reasons for his home struggles since joining the Rangers, as it is an unforgiving park for flyball pitchers). He has also increased his strikeout rate, decreased his hit rate and well hit rate, and has now gone five straight starts without allowing a home run- all fundamental signs pointing he is finally back to form. Despite being the fourth start against the Mariners this year, this will be the first start in which he has faced them since he can be considered “himself”. During last years “off-season” Millwood still managed to have success against this lineup, which is not much of a surprise, as aside from Suzuki, the Mariners simply lack the ideal threats from the left side to take advantage of Millwood’s fundamental deficiencies he has as a pitcher. The Mariners have shown signs of slowdown since the break, and enter today’s game with two straight goose eggs against right handed pitchers (including one against a struggling pitcher). The catalyst of their offense is no doubt Suzuki, a leadoff hitter hitting just .250 this month, and is hitless in his last eight at bats. Millwood is a savvy veteran who could make the aggressiveness the Mariners hitters have at the plate work against them, much like the last two right handers did against them. The Rangers have one of the deeper and more underrated bullpens in baseball, and have the ideal depth to not make the injury to Otsuka be one they can not overcome.
Millwood is not the only variable for the Rangers that appear to be heading in the right track, as their lineup has shown cohesiveness that has resulted in wins this month. The Rangers have managed to win half their games this month, despite having to play 60 percent of them against the Angels, Red Sox and Indians. Their improved play appears to be most notable at home, while the return of Texeria has finally made their lineup a threat. Today they have a good chance to continue their upward trend against a pitcher that hasn’t seemed right for years, as a series of injuries has taken a chronic effect on his efficiency. Although his ERA over the last three years clearly identifies a liability on the mound, his pitching peripherals show a much more vulnerable pitcher. Ramirez, even when right, has never been a good road pitcher, a trend that appears to be getting progressively worse. In this years limited road action; he is taking it to an entirely different level, entering this game allowing 23 runs in just 15 innings of work. His high walk total is a deficiency that can prove costly in this park, as the last thing you want to give is free baserunners here. The Mariners thought his saving grace would be his effectiveness against left handed bats, a variable that has become less effective each year, and in current form is a non factor. His off-speed pitch has been completely ineffective this season, forcing him to have to rely on his sub par fastball more than he would like, and a pitch this Rangers lineup has been tearing up. The Mariners front end bullpen has been struggling of late, a portion that appears unavoidable for Ramirez.
