My thoughts on all the games tonight...(July 23, 2007)

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Boston@Cleveland:

- Red Sox have lost six straight on the road but they can't lose forever.

- John Lester is back starting for the Red Sox. He is back from cancer, he fought cancer and he beat cancer. If that's not motivation enough for these guys I don't know what is.

- In 5 road starts last season, Boston provided Lester with 5.3 runs of run support per game. Jake Westbrook is getting only 3.9 runs of run support all season from one of the hottest hitting teams in MLB this season.

- Westbrook does not deserve this price, nor has he earned with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.72 in his last three starts. The Indians are 0-7 in his last seven starts where he is a -110 to -150 favorite.


Play: Boston Red Sox ML +122

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Minnesota@Toronto

- Why in the world anyone bet against the Blue Jays at home against a left handed pitcher when they are 12-3 (21-6 in the last 27) in that situation?

- The Jays are coming off their most productive and confidence boosting game in months and now they get to face a lefty and this kind of price. Just can't take the Twins.

- Betting on the Jays is also not an option for me because its Johan on the mound and the bats have not been around to help Shawn Marcum out in his last three start.

- With one of top pitchers pitching against one of the best home lefty hitting lineups, the only play is the NO PLAY.


Play: NO PLAY

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Milwaukee@Cincinnati

- Some very good trends point to a Reds win tonight as Journeyman posted in the other part of the forum.

- Milwaukee overall is still a very good team and although Chris Capuano has struggled, the Brewers have won 5 of their last 6 when he starts against the NL Central.

- Reds have won only 3 of their last 10 at home against lefties and that just not worth it for me. There is no point backing teams that can't hit lefties or righties...whichever applies and in this case its the Reds who cant hit southpaws.

Play: NO PLAY

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LA Dodgers@Houston

- The Dodgers are not a team I can count on to win me money anymore. They just don't have the balls to get it done.

- Neither Sampson or Billingsley can be relied upon in a game like this (somewhat of a slump busting game for both teams).

- The Dodgers have been a much better bet on the road (26 wins) than at home (29 wins) this season so if you're gonna back them, now is the time to do it.

- Billingsley starting on the road has been cash money (Dodgers have won their last four with him starting).

- Only reason I am not touching this is that Houston has won 9 of their last 10 at home against righties.

Play: NO PLAY

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NY Yankees@Kansas City

- Did you know that the Yankees are 1-11 on the road this season versus a left handed pitcher?

- Definitely makes this a Royals or nothing play for me. The Yankees score only 3.25 runs per game on the road when facing a southpaw...do you really want your -172 around for that?

- Clemens has always been more dominant against the AL Central teams for some reason as the Yankees are 22-4 in his last 26 starts versus this division. Tough to call again.

- Royals have been busting cash for all faders as of late.

Play: NO PLAY

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Detroit@White Sox

- Mark Buehrle has been dominant of the AL Central in his career as the Sox have now won 21 of his last 28 starts against the divisions so its obvious Buerhle does his homework on the hitters he sees the most.

-Buehrle has been a great home pitchers over the years and has won his last four starts against winning teams. So he likes to pitch well in big games.

- However, the White Sox suck ass against left handed pitchers having won only 6 of their last 21 against them.

- Buerhle is getting a pathetic 2.7 runs of runs support per game in his last three starts and things wont get any better tonight. He also got rocked by the Tigers in his last home start against them.

Play: NO PLAY

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Seattle@Texas

- The Mariners look like they are starting to fade a little bit after losing two straight to the Blue Jays and not scoring a run in either game.

- Yes they have bounced back from losses quite nicely the last few weeks but Horacio Ramirez has lost his last four road starts...Fade material for sure.

- Despite the good numbers, Kevin Millwood has been the better pitcher in their last three starts, allowing only 13 hits in 19 innings pitched while Ramirez has allowed 15 in 15 innings pitched.

- Millwood and the Rangers have won 6 of their last 8 when he starts as a home favorite. They are also 5-1 when he starts after a loss so he is a great streak buster.

- The Rangers are 2-1 this season when Millwood faces the Mariners and they won both games he started against them at home last year by a combined score of 18-7.

Play: Texas Rangers ML -120

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San Diego@Colorado

- I hate betting on the Padres because they can't hit.

- However, San Diego has won 6 of their last 7 times at Coors Field when Jeff Francis is the pitcher and they seem to have his number.

- Francis has been too good as of late to go against, so im not taking that chance that he comes out with a really good game against a nemesis.

- The Padres have lost seven straight games against a pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.30 like Jeff Francis. Useless idiots.

- Colorado has won 10 of their last 11 at home against a right handed starter and Jeff Francis is the only reason I am not on them in this game.

Play: NO PLAY

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Florida@Arizona

- The value in betting on Dontrelle Willis has just gone up a bunch because nobody believes in him anymore with his 9.24 ERA and 2.68 WHIP in his last three starts.

- Willis was booed by home fans but what people forget is that the Marlins have won 9 of their last 11 road games when Willis is the starter.

- The line is too weird. A lot of people are on Arizona yet the line is -112 for the D-Backs. So you're telling me that Doug Davis with his 3.32 ERA in his last three starts is a short home favorite? Cmon...

- Arizona hits only .249 at home versus lefties and are 4-9 in their last 13 home games versus a left handed starter.

- Great bounce back spot for Willis here. He has not been a good road underdog bet but had he not pitched so poorly, this would be a road fav situation.

- Hanley Ramirez is out tonight which is the one and only reason I am not betting this game. THATS IT!

Play: NO PLAY

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Oakland@LA Angels

- The Oakland Athletics are tad overrated and im sick of watching these guys play and lose money.

- I know Bartolo Colon has been God awful almost everytime he steps out onto the mound but one thing you have to know is that the Angels are 23-5 in his last 28 starts versus the AL West.

- Colon is getting 6.3 runs of run support this season and despite his shitty numbers still has a decent record.

- Oakland has won only 3 of their last 10 as a road underdog.

- Oakland is 2-8 in their last 10 road games versus a right handed starter.

- Chad Gaudin has been good but it won't be enough in this big battle and I think the Angels ride a nice performance by Colon.

Play: LA Angels ML -125

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Atlanta@San Francisco

- Matt Cain is on the mound and plain and simply, the Giants don't want to win for him. They are 0-7 in his last seven home starts.

- Cain is getting only 3.2 runs of run support per game this season which I don't think is enough to keep away the Braves.

- Atlanta however have not been winning behind John Smoltz, losing 5 of their last 7 when he starts.

- This is a complete crapshoot in my mind. Atlanta doesn't win much in San Francisco to begin with (4-10 in their last 14) so they don't have value and the Giants don't win with Cain.

- I think Cain is due for a big time win tonight but the only question I have is who the hell is gonna get it for him?

- I can't fade Smoltz but I also can't go against a guy who is due for a win.

Play: NO PLAY



:toast:
 

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WSox have the 29th ranked bullpen.
Detroit is the #2 Money team at home and on the road.
WSox have the 29th ranked Offense
Det has the #1 Offense
 

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Thanks for sharing the good info!

GL!!! :money8: :money8: :money8:
 

Handicapping Machine
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thanks but the Angels kinda ruining my fun a bit...down 11-5 in the 6th
 

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