Mets -140
Prior to the all star break, the Pirates were a value team to bet on for patient bettors willing to stomach games in which they resembled more characteristics of a minor league club than a major league one. “Public” bettors not only shied away from this consistently priced underdog, but were blindly betting against them no matter the cost. This allowed the Pirates to be one of the most undervalued teams in the league on a consistent basis. However, the same can not be said for this team after the break, as if there was one team that has already packed it in and is showing a lack of effort, it is the Pirates. Winning just one out of their ten games post break, and scoring more than two runs in just half their games since the break, the Pirates appear to be temporary dead money, and also provide Glavine an opportunity to bounce back from a horrible outing against the Dodgers. Glavine has shown some regression this year, as there has been several starts this season in which he looks thoroughly dominated on the mound. He, more than any other pitcher in the league is dependent on the home plate umpire giving him margin off the plate, as anything he throws over the plate is vulnerable to being hit hard. Fortunately for his cause, he gets a generous umpire in today’s game. He also gets to face an anemic lineup whose aggressiveness at the plate will be used against them when dealing with Glavine’s style of pitching. Despite his struggles this season, Glavine remains dominant at home, as he appears to have reached a real comfort zone on this mound, while the parks dimensions curtail his propensity to allow the long ball. Glavine has really been struggling against left handed hitters in recent starts, a newfound deficiency that should be helped out by the Pirates lineup lacking talent from that side of the plate. He has had past success against a few hitters in the Pirates lineup, while the ones he has struggled against have been easy outs at the plate this month. Backed by one of the better bullpens in the league should force a struggling Pirates lineup to get the lead early against a veteran pitcher in bounce back mode, looking for his 300th win in a park which he continues to be dominant in.
Some say Gorzelanny is one of the most disrespected pitchers by linesmakers. I am not sure that is the case, as I simply think he is pitching a bit over his head, as some of his peripherals provide a strong case for regression. Don’t be surprised if this potential regression happens sooner than later, as he is residing at an inning count which he arm has never been accustomed to, and has already slowly showing signs of wearing down. His pitches per inning have progressively been increasing, as his off speed pitch is becoming less effective and less prone to being chased. This does not bode well for his chances going up against a patient lineup, as his fastball is not overpowering and has been hit hard all season. The Mets have had no problem getting to him last year, as they have the talent from the right side to make him struggle. Gorzelanny’s high walk propensity is also a deficiency magnified when facing this Mets lineup. Backed by very anemic run support has put pressure on the Pirates young pitching staff in recent series. Until the Pirates show some heart, I have no problem betting against them.
Prior to the all star break, the Pirates were a value team to bet on for patient bettors willing to stomach games in which they resembled more characteristics of a minor league club than a major league one. “Public” bettors not only shied away from this consistently priced underdog, but were blindly betting against them no matter the cost. This allowed the Pirates to be one of the most undervalued teams in the league on a consistent basis. However, the same can not be said for this team after the break, as if there was one team that has already packed it in and is showing a lack of effort, it is the Pirates. Winning just one out of their ten games post break, and scoring more than two runs in just half their games since the break, the Pirates appear to be temporary dead money, and also provide Glavine an opportunity to bounce back from a horrible outing against the Dodgers. Glavine has shown some regression this year, as there has been several starts this season in which he looks thoroughly dominated on the mound. He, more than any other pitcher in the league is dependent on the home plate umpire giving him margin off the plate, as anything he throws over the plate is vulnerable to being hit hard. Fortunately for his cause, he gets a generous umpire in today’s game. He also gets to face an anemic lineup whose aggressiveness at the plate will be used against them when dealing with Glavine’s style of pitching. Despite his struggles this season, Glavine remains dominant at home, as he appears to have reached a real comfort zone on this mound, while the parks dimensions curtail his propensity to allow the long ball. Glavine has really been struggling against left handed hitters in recent starts, a newfound deficiency that should be helped out by the Pirates lineup lacking talent from that side of the plate. He has had past success against a few hitters in the Pirates lineup, while the ones he has struggled against have been easy outs at the plate this month. Backed by one of the better bullpens in the league should force a struggling Pirates lineup to get the lead early against a veteran pitcher in bounce back mode, looking for his 300th win in a park which he continues to be dominant in.
Some say Gorzelanny is one of the most disrespected pitchers by linesmakers. I am not sure that is the case, as I simply think he is pitching a bit over his head, as some of his peripherals provide a strong case for regression. Don’t be surprised if this potential regression happens sooner than later, as he is residing at an inning count which he arm has never been accustomed to, and has already slowly showing signs of wearing down. His pitches per inning have progressively been increasing, as his off speed pitch is becoming less effective and less prone to being chased. This does not bode well for his chances going up against a patient lineup, as his fastball is not overpowering and has been hit hard all season. The Mets have had no problem getting to him last year, as they have the talent from the right side to make him struggle. Gorzelanny’s high walk propensity is also a deficiency magnified when facing this Mets lineup. Backed by very anemic run support has put pressure on the Pirates young pitching staff in recent series. Until the Pirates show some heart, I have no problem betting against them.
