MistaFlava's 2007 MLB Record: 61-64 (-16.58 Units)
I am coming off a winning night for once with my big 10 unit play hitting on the Arizona Diamonbacks. I think I can sweep the board tonight with a strong card and now it's time to bring home the bacon for the weekend. Here we go:
Thursday, July 26
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +126 (5 Units)
Now is the time. That time doesn't come around too often but now is the time you want to bet on the atrocious Tampa Bay Devil Rays. I know the name says it all and I know betting on crappy teams is not a good idea but with the alarming rate of favorites that won yesterday (11 favs of 14 or something like that) the underdogs are bound to bite back and it all starts here in this game. Fading Edwin Jackson has been as cash money as it gets this season but there's a reason the D-Rays are keeping him around. Believe it or not Jackson has actually been better than Orioles starter Steve Trachsel over his last three starts. Jackson has allowed only 19 hits in 17.0 innings of work and most impressive of all, he is getting 8.3 runs of run support per game in those last three starts. Trachsel on the other hand is a complete gas can right now, the kind of gas can the D-Rays batting order needs to wake up and light on fire. He has an ERA of 11.45 and a WHIP of 2.91 over his last three starts having allowed 25 hits in only 11.0 innings of work. The one and only time Tampa Bay beat Baltimore this season was against Trachsel and the orange birds have yet to face Jackson. Baltimore have lost five straight with Trachsel on the mound and the D-Rays are going to finally take advantage and win a game.
Boston Red Sox -107 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
I am going for my second consecutive big play winner of the week. This is the fourth straight time I bet on one of these two teams in this series. I was on the Red Sox in Game 1 (cashed). I was on the Indians in Game 2 (lost). I was on the Indians in Game 3 (cashed). So here we are in Game 4 of this series where one team is either going to take a turn for the bad or one team is going to make a forward surge and send a message to the Yankees that their only hope is that wild card spot. Kason Gabbard is on the mound for the Red Sox tonight and although it's tough to let a young left handed pitcher take the mound in this ballpark against this team, the Indians are hitting only .252 overall in their last 10 games so it's not like they have the hot bats right now or anything. I fully expect this game to be a lot higher scoring than the first three and I say that because Cliff Lee is on the mound. Lee has allowed a whopping 23 hits in 16.0 innings of work over his last three starts with an ERA of 10.69 and a WHIP of 1.88. Gabbard has been the complete opposite and has arguably been the best pitcher in MLB over his last three starts. I know the Sox have struggled against lefties on the road but they have been one of the best covering road favs in MLB winning 16 of their last 23 when favored on the road. Lee has been a much better pitcher at home but I think the Red Sox take it to him in this one and I don't like the fact that Cleveland has lost 7 of their last 8 games following a win. They are starting to fade in my books and now is the time to cash in.
Kansas City Royals +150 (1 Unit)
Don't laugh at me or any other Royals backers for this one because despite being the hottest team in baseball and despite looking like they are about 10 classes above the Royals in this series, the New York Yankees are still 2-11 on the road this season versus left handed pitchers and if the Royals were ever going to do something about being bullied, it would be done in this game. The Royals have preferred hitting lefties this season at home and for the first time in this series they get to face one and possibly take a run at the 'first to 10 runs' competition. Kei Igawa has been lucky his last three starts. Although the team has won all three times, he has not been the reason why. In those starts he does not have a win, he has an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 2.07 which means the Royals have a good chance. Jorge De La Rosa has been just as terrible as of late but if you remember the last time the Yankees faced him (it was last September), he shut them out 5-0 and the Royals took him to big cash and their only win of the home series. The Yankees have struggled on the road against lefties and they are only 2-6 in their last eight road games as a large price favorite like this. De La Rosa has beat 4 of the last 5 teams with winning records he has faced. I like the price.
Chicago Cubs -103 (3 Units)
Why the hell not? The Cubbies are going for the sweep in this game and I think it would be foolish not to be on them. We are talking about a team that is 7-3 in their last 10 games and that has done that on clutch hitting and tremendous pitching from both the bullpen and the starting staff. In those 10 games the Cubs have a combined ERA of 3.10 with the starters doing as good a job as they have done all season. On the mound tonight is Jason Marquis who won 5-3 here back in April. Marquis has been the one Cubs starter that has struggled a bit as of late but he is still putting his team in a position to win games and that counts a lot. Brade Looper is on the other side of the mound tonight and he needs to be worried about the Cubs because they are hitting .283 versus righties on the road and they are ready to make damage on any given night. What you need to know about the Cubs is that they backup their weaker pitcher and the proof of that is that they are 13-7 this season when Marquis pitches despite his recent struggles. Chicago has won 8 straight games against a right handed starter, they are one of the hottest road teams around and have won 7 of their last 8 when Marquis pitches against the NL Central. Looper has also been good against the NL Central but he doesn't have the same kind of backbone support from his team. Cubs for me.
Florida Marlins +128 (5 Units)
Who the hell would want to bet on these guys when they have lost three straight games to these Diamondbacks and have been outscored 20-6 in the process? That would be me. Despite going 4-6 in their last 10 games now and despite looking like trash in the first three games, the Marlins are still batting .290 in their last 10 games compared to the D-Backs who are batting .237 in their last 10 games but have gone 6-4 in those games. Basically all the Marlins really need to avoid the sweep is a strong start from Byung Hyun Kim and I think they're gonna get it. Kim is 2-1 in his last three starts, allowing only 16 hits in 19.1 innings of work with an ERA of only 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.40. He has basically been the only player this team can rely on to win games and I like the fact that he is familiar with this ballpark. Alfredo Amezaga is 2 for 14 since taking over for Hanley Ramirez (out again tonight) in the leadoff spot but I don't think things will be the same tonight. Expect someone else at the top of that order. Micah Owings is on the mound for Arizona and he has not pitched well at all as of late. In his last three starts he is 0-2 and has an ERA of 7.36 and a WHIP of 1.64 which makes him a good fade against a team desperate to avoid the four game sweep. The Marlins have won 7 of their last 9 Game 4 situations and they have won Kim's last four road starts. It won't be easy but I think the Marlins ride the hot hand of Kim to a win in this one.
:thumbsup:
I am coming off a winning night for once with my big 10 unit play hitting on the Arizona Diamonbacks. I think I can sweep the board tonight with a strong card and now it's time to bring home the bacon for the weekend. Here we go:
Thursday, July 26
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +126 (5 Units)
Now is the time. That time doesn't come around too often but now is the time you want to bet on the atrocious Tampa Bay Devil Rays. I know the name says it all and I know betting on crappy teams is not a good idea but with the alarming rate of favorites that won yesterday (11 favs of 14 or something like that) the underdogs are bound to bite back and it all starts here in this game. Fading Edwin Jackson has been as cash money as it gets this season but there's a reason the D-Rays are keeping him around. Believe it or not Jackson has actually been better than Orioles starter Steve Trachsel over his last three starts. Jackson has allowed only 19 hits in 17.0 innings of work and most impressive of all, he is getting 8.3 runs of run support per game in those last three starts. Trachsel on the other hand is a complete gas can right now, the kind of gas can the D-Rays batting order needs to wake up and light on fire. He has an ERA of 11.45 and a WHIP of 2.91 over his last three starts having allowed 25 hits in only 11.0 innings of work. The one and only time Tampa Bay beat Baltimore this season was against Trachsel and the orange birds have yet to face Jackson. Baltimore have lost five straight with Trachsel on the mound and the D-Rays are going to finally take advantage and win a game.
Boston Red Sox -107 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
I am going for my second consecutive big play winner of the week. This is the fourth straight time I bet on one of these two teams in this series. I was on the Red Sox in Game 1 (cashed). I was on the Indians in Game 2 (lost). I was on the Indians in Game 3 (cashed). So here we are in Game 4 of this series where one team is either going to take a turn for the bad or one team is going to make a forward surge and send a message to the Yankees that their only hope is that wild card spot. Kason Gabbard is on the mound for the Red Sox tonight and although it's tough to let a young left handed pitcher take the mound in this ballpark against this team, the Indians are hitting only .252 overall in their last 10 games so it's not like they have the hot bats right now or anything. I fully expect this game to be a lot higher scoring than the first three and I say that because Cliff Lee is on the mound. Lee has allowed a whopping 23 hits in 16.0 innings of work over his last three starts with an ERA of 10.69 and a WHIP of 1.88. Gabbard has been the complete opposite and has arguably been the best pitcher in MLB over his last three starts. I know the Sox have struggled against lefties on the road but they have been one of the best covering road favs in MLB winning 16 of their last 23 when favored on the road. Lee has been a much better pitcher at home but I think the Red Sox take it to him in this one and I don't like the fact that Cleveland has lost 7 of their last 8 games following a win. They are starting to fade in my books and now is the time to cash in.
Kansas City Royals +150 (1 Unit)
Don't laugh at me or any other Royals backers for this one because despite being the hottest team in baseball and despite looking like they are about 10 classes above the Royals in this series, the New York Yankees are still 2-11 on the road this season versus left handed pitchers and if the Royals were ever going to do something about being bullied, it would be done in this game. The Royals have preferred hitting lefties this season at home and for the first time in this series they get to face one and possibly take a run at the 'first to 10 runs' competition. Kei Igawa has been lucky his last three starts. Although the team has won all three times, he has not been the reason why. In those starts he does not have a win, he has an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 2.07 which means the Royals have a good chance. Jorge De La Rosa has been just as terrible as of late but if you remember the last time the Yankees faced him (it was last September), he shut them out 5-0 and the Royals took him to big cash and their only win of the home series. The Yankees have struggled on the road against lefties and they are only 2-6 in their last eight road games as a large price favorite like this. De La Rosa has beat 4 of the last 5 teams with winning records he has faced. I like the price.
Chicago Cubs -103 (3 Units)
Why the hell not? The Cubbies are going for the sweep in this game and I think it would be foolish not to be on them. We are talking about a team that is 7-3 in their last 10 games and that has done that on clutch hitting and tremendous pitching from both the bullpen and the starting staff. In those 10 games the Cubs have a combined ERA of 3.10 with the starters doing as good a job as they have done all season. On the mound tonight is Jason Marquis who won 5-3 here back in April. Marquis has been the one Cubs starter that has struggled a bit as of late but he is still putting his team in a position to win games and that counts a lot. Brade Looper is on the other side of the mound tonight and he needs to be worried about the Cubs because they are hitting .283 versus righties on the road and they are ready to make damage on any given night. What you need to know about the Cubs is that they backup their weaker pitcher and the proof of that is that they are 13-7 this season when Marquis pitches despite his recent struggles. Chicago has won 8 straight games against a right handed starter, they are one of the hottest road teams around and have won 7 of their last 8 when Marquis pitches against the NL Central. Looper has also been good against the NL Central but he doesn't have the same kind of backbone support from his team. Cubs for me.
Florida Marlins +128 (5 Units)
Who the hell would want to bet on these guys when they have lost three straight games to these Diamondbacks and have been outscored 20-6 in the process? That would be me. Despite going 4-6 in their last 10 games now and despite looking like trash in the first three games, the Marlins are still batting .290 in their last 10 games compared to the D-Backs who are batting .237 in their last 10 games but have gone 6-4 in those games. Basically all the Marlins really need to avoid the sweep is a strong start from Byung Hyun Kim and I think they're gonna get it. Kim is 2-1 in his last three starts, allowing only 16 hits in 19.1 innings of work with an ERA of only 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.40. He has basically been the only player this team can rely on to win games and I like the fact that he is familiar with this ballpark. Alfredo Amezaga is 2 for 14 since taking over for Hanley Ramirez (out again tonight) in the leadoff spot but I don't think things will be the same tonight. Expect someone else at the top of that order. Micah Owings is on the mound for Arizona and he has not pitched well at all as of late. In his last three starts he is 0-2 and has an ERA of 7.36 and a WHIP of 1.64 which makes him a good fade against a team desperate to avoid the four game sweep. The Marlins have won 7 of their last 9 Game 4 situations and they have won Kim's last four road starts. It won't be easy but I think the Marlins ride the hot hand of Kim to a win in this one.
:thumbsup:
