two tonight w/analysis

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">0.00 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">34</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">41</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+4.36 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">150</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">181</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+11.07 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

Chicago –1.02 over ST. LOUIS
We see no reason to jump off this train right now, as the Cubbies remain hot and have the best record in the league since June 3, going 31-15 over that stretch. They’ve beaten the Cardinals in the first two games of this set and a win here will mark the first time in 19 years they swept the Cardinals in St. Louis. Is that unbelievable or what? Jason Marquis knows the Cardinals hitters well, as he pitched for them from ’04-’06. In two starts against the Cards this year, Marquis went 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA. He comes in with a very respectable 3.92 ERA and is also coming off a solid performance over the Snakes, pitching 7.2 innings and allowing just four hits and two runs. For the genius-led Cardinals it’ll be Braden Looper, a guy that’ll put the ball in play, as he’s walked 34 and struck out just 50 in 104.1 innings. Looper is a career reliever that’s not used to throwing lots of innings and the effects of having done so are very evident indeed. In four July starts, the teams he faced, Arizona, San Fran, Florida and Atlanta hit a combined .327 off him. His ERA in July thus far is 6.75 and he’s about to face one of the hottest hitting teams in the league. Looper is a big man that’s 34 years old and 234 lbs and he’s never pitched more then 86 innings in a full season. This year he’s already up to 104 frames and these hot July and August nights are only going to get worse on him, not better. Play: Chicago –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
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COLORADO +1.16 over Los Angeles
Most people are going to see Brad Penny and his 12-1 as a seemingly cheap lay here, especially when they also read that Penny has owned the Rockies over the years. In fact, Penny is 11-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 17 career starts against Colorado, his best winning percentage against any NL opponent. We’re suggesting the oddsmakers could’ve made the Dodgers a bigger price here and not deterred a single wager. After all, Penny has been lights out all year and pure gold. However, the Rockies may be the most underrated team in the league. They have few flaws and they don’t lose very often in their own barn. The Rocks have won 16 of their last 20 at Coors and Rodrigo Lopez has yet to lose at home this year, going 5-0 with a 3.55 ERA. Don’t be surprised to see this line creep up all day, as the public eats up this number. The oddmakers had to have anticipated Dodger money and they’re going to get their wish. Dodgers look like the sucker play of the day to us for the simple reason that the line came in too low and it wasn't a mistake. We’re urging you to back off the Dodgers and/or play the Rockies. The books say so. Play: Colorado +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Look what the cat dragged in!

Great to see you back with your fabulous writeups and insights. Where have you been? GL like your "illogic" thinking on fading the Dodgers.
 

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I don't see how you think this is a cheap price or an off line. Colorado is a much hotter team at home and the line is around -145. If it was in LA that line would be around -180+ so if anything this line is a little high. Dodgers have been sub par lately going 5-5 their last 10 meanwhile Colorado is red hot. They have won 13 outta their last 20 and like you said 16 outta last 20 at home. If anything the price is a bit high, but I def think the Dodgers will win. I don't think the public will eat it up.. there is actually only 2 other teams that are bigger road favorites today, that's it. The Yanks and the Tigers.
 

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