Hey guys in Chicago (Cubs fans), what do you think of Cincinnati ML +114?

MistaFlava · Jul 27, 2007

I want an honest opinion here.

- Rich Hill is getting only 1.7 runs of run support in his last three starts (2.9 runs per start on the season).

- The Cubs are only 2-6 in Hill's last eight road starts

- Cincinnati has won 7 of their last 8 home games (one of the hottest home teams in MLB right now)

- Cincinnati is 5-2 in Arroyo's last seven starts against the Cubs.

- Jerry Narron is gone...things are different and better in Cincinnati since the last time these two teams met.

- Griffey Jr. is hot right now and batting .317 (19-for-60) with five homers in 17 games against the Cubs since the start of last season (from Yahoo).

- Arroyo lost twice against the Cubs this season but both games were in the opening two weeks of the season. Arroyo has turned things around since the All-Star Break and in his last three starts has an ERA of 3.15, a WHIP of 1.30. If he's back on form, can we expect him to pitch like he did last year against the Cubs (4-0 with a 1.01 ERA in five starts against them)???

- Over the last 5 games, Cincinnati is batting .287 (OBP of .356), Chicago is batting .225 (OBP of .280).

I think the Reds are as good a play as it gets tonight...would love some thoughts or objective opinions on this and please don't just say 'Cubs are the best'. Thanks

:aktion033

buffettgambler · Jul 27, 2007

MistaFlava said:
I want an honest opinion here.

- Rich Hill is getting only 1.7 runs of run support in his last three starts (2.9 runs per start on the season).

- The Cubs are only 2-6 in Hill's last eight road starts

- Cincinnati has won 7 of their last 8 home games (one of the hottest home teams in MLB right now)

- Cincinnati is 5-2 in Arroyo's last seven starts against the Cubs.

- Jerry Narron is gone...things are different and better in Cincinnati since the last time these two teams met.

- Griffey Jr. is hot right now and batting .317 (19-for-60) with five homers in 17 games against the Cubs since the start of last season (from Yahoo).

- Arroyo lost twice against the Cubs this season but both games were in the opening two weeks of the season. Arroyo has turned things around since the All-Star Break and in his last three starts has an ERA of 3.15, a WHIP of 1.30. If he's back on form, can we expect him to pitch like he did last year against the Cubs (4-0 with a 1.01 ERA in five starts against them)???

- Over the last 5 games, Cincinnati is batting .287 (OBP of .356), Chicago is batting .225 (OBP of .280).

I think the Reds are as good a play as it gets tonight...would love some thoughts or objective opinions on this and please don't just say 'Cubs are the best'. Thanks

:aktion033

For what it's worth, Griffey is batting .226 with 2 home runs since the break, and is currently in his worst month since last July. GL

teazeman · Jul 27, 2007

i'm on the cubbies, red legs terrible against poor left handed pitching and hill is above average.

MistaFlava · Jul 27, 2007

buffettgambler said:
For what it's worth, Griffey is batting .226 with 2 home runs since the break, and is currently in his worst month since last July. GL

You're right, he hasn't been all that hot but maybe showing signs of a breakout game last night with 3 hits? Last time he did that he followed it up with 2 hits the next night. Thoughts on the game itself?

MistaFlava · Jul 27, 2007

teazeman said:
i'm on the cubbies, red legs terrible against poor left handed pitching and hill is above average.

Yeah but...

- Reds have won 3 of their last 4 at home against lefties beating CC Sabathia, Barry Zito and Chris Capuano.

- Reds are the #1 HR team in the majors and Rich Hill has an issue with giving up HR's.

- Rich Hill has allowed 11 HR's in 10 road starts (64.2 inning pitched) this season.

Scary numbers if you're backing the Cubs in this one.

teazeman · Jul 27, 2007

i'm not scared, just on a different side than you. no biggie just a play like many others i make...

just giving my point of view bro, gl.

MistaFlava · Jul 27, 2007

teazeman said:
i'm not scared, just on a different side than you. no biggie just a play like many others i make...

just giving my point of view bro, gl.

I appreciate it man. Im not 100% on the Reds tonight, just looking for reasons not to be. Thanks!

jdigae01 · Jul 27, 2007

the cubs just got their assess handed to them too i mean that has to factor in. this team is in the hunt, and they didnt pull off the sweep last night, but they were bound for a letdown game.

MistaFlava · Jul 27, 2007

jdigae01 said:
the cubs just got their assess handed to them too i mean that has to factor in. this team is in the hunt, and they didnt pull off the sweep last night, but they were bound for a letdown game.

- Cubs are 3-2 after allowing 10+ runs this season (14-10 the last 3 seasons), nothing special in bounce back games. Some teams have near perfect records in this spot...and I wonder how late it was when the Cubs got into Cincinnati.

- Since 1997, if you count all the games played between these two teams the ROI for the Cubs is -12.4% while the ROI for the Reds is +10.4%. It's safe to say that the advantage and value is with the Reds when these two teams meet.

buffettgambler · Jul 27, 2007

MistaFlava said:
You're right, he hasn't been all that hot but maybe showing signs of a breakout game last night with 3 hits? Last time he did that he followed it up with 2 hits the next night. Thoughts on the game itself?

In my opinion, the line seems efficiently set, with the Cubs maybe trading at a bit of a premium. Just doesn't seem like a line providing value on either side.

The game itself provides two notorious flyball pitchers pitching inside a band box, so anything can happen. As you mentioned, Hill has been struggling a bit of late, as his command and curveball has regressed, while he may be tipping his pitches a bit, as some hitters are just sitting back on his curve. That said, he could overwhelm left handed bats, which does not bode well for a Reds lineup. His short term run support is nothing more than randomness (runs support in general highly lacks predictive value in future run support).

Arroyo's backward style is no longer a novalty for NL hitters, so regression from last years numbers are not much of a suprise. Nor is his home struggles, as the parks dimensions are counterintuitve to his style of pitching. His succcess against the Reds is slowly dissapearing as they are getting better accustomed to his style of pitching, but nonetheless, are still a better lineup againnst power pitchers.

Appears to be a hard game to predict, as both pitchers can continue their success of the last two years they have had over their opponent, or fall victim of recent struggles and the counterintutive nature of Great American and flyball pitching.
Gl

pool · Jul 27, 2007

One thing to consider any time you back Cinn. is their bullpen. They're just bad, especially against a good offensive lineup like the Cubs have. If Cinn. is going to win this game it will have to be in the first six innings. If it's tied or a 1 run Cinn. lead after the 6th I don't see them winning unless Arroyo goes the distance. I don't like either side in this one but I do lean to the over.

Drunkn247 · Jul 27, 2007

The fact that Rich Hill doesn't get run support means zero. that stat is pointless.
Scene: (The Cincinatti Visitor Clubhouse)
Time: (1 Hour Before Game Time)

Soriano: "Hey you know Rich is pitching tonight"
Derek: "Hell yeah I hate that guy"
Aramis: " Damn this guy is pitching again that means I can't hit any homeruns today"

Soriano:"Maybe we can score just 2 runs and hope he can pitch a gem"
Derek: "I'm just going to strike out everytime I'm up on purpose"

BoxingGuy · Jul 27, 2007

I am a Chicago Cubs fan, and I played on both the Reds and the Reds team over tonight. Im sure you can read all the statistics and trends to why Reds might be a good play, so I will save the retyping of all those. The fact is that Hill has been terrible for about the last 2 months pretty much. In the games that he has pitched well statistically, he has been bailed out by double play balls and strong bats. The Cubs typically tend to struggle down in Cincinnati. I think the Cubs struggle tonight big time, and it seems their bats have begun to struggle. All of their runs since the break pretty much have come with two out timely hitting. They arnt hitting homeruns, and with DeRosa hurt, and the two young guys up the middle not hitting as well....the Cubs offense has begun to really struggle. The Cubs bullpen has finally come back to reality after a wonderful strech that allowed them to get back into contention. The Cubs got hot when Soriano was hitting the ball deep, the top of the order was getting on base, and the bullpen was pitching well. It seems as if Pinella has worn out the arms of guys like Marmol and Howry. Another glaring problem for the cubs in this match-up will be the ineffective left-handers that they have coming out of the pen. Eyre has been terrible all year long, and Ohman has begun to struggle with his control on his breaking ball. Ohman had always been able to get ahead with his breaking ball in order to help his unimpressive fastball. With Hill's unability to keep his pitch-count down, and the Cubs terrible offense the last couple weeks...I dont find it impossible that this game could end up with one of those two lefties up there trying to get out Dunn and Griffey. Ill take my chance with those two hitters over the Erye-Ohman combo any night. Hope that helped. JMO.

CapNWatch · Jul 27, 2007

MistaFlava one thing I can tell you is...Alfonso Soriano has had some really ugly swings lately and he sturggles against Arroyo. I really like the leadership Brandon Phillips has brought to this Reds ballclub. If I had to pick a side I'd go with the Reds. Just a lean though. Gl FLAVA.

bustinthecap · Jul 27, 2007

hottest team around...go cubs

MistaFlava · Jul 27, 2007

CapNWatch said:
MistaFlava one thing I can tell you is...Alfonso Soriano has had some really ugly swings lately and he sturggles against Arroyo. I really like the leadership Brandon Phillips has brought to this Reds ballclub. If I had to pick a side I'd go with the Reds. Just a lean though. Gl FLAVA.

Yes sir...and the last time these two teams met with Arroyo pitching was twice in April, when Brandon Phillips was hitless on the year. Thanks buddy!

MistaFlava · Jul 27, 2007

BoxingGuy said:
I am a Chicago Cubs fan, and I played on both the Reds and the Reds team over tonight. Im sure you can read all the statistics and trends to why Reds might be a good play, so I will save the retyping of all those. The fact is that Hill has been terrible for about the last 2 months pretty much. In the games that he has pitched well statistically, he has been bailed out by double play balls and strong bats. The Cubs typically tend to struggle down in Cincinnati. I think the Cubs struggle tonight big time, and it seems their bats have begun to struggle. All of their runs since the break pretty much have come with two out timely hitting. They arnt hitting homeruns, and with DeRosa hurt, and the two young guys up the middle not hitting as well....the Cubs offense has begun to really struggle. The Cubs bullpen has finally come back to reality after a wonderful strech that allowed them to get back into contention. The Cubs got hot when Soriano was hitting the ball deep, the top of the order was getting on base, and the bullpen was pitching well. It seems as if Pinella has worn out the arms of guys like Marmol and Howry. Another glaring problem for the cubs in this match-up will be the ineffective left-handers that they have coming out of the pen. Eyre has been terrible all year long, and Ohman has begun to struggle with his control on his breaking ball. Ohman had always been able to get ahead with his breaking ball in order to help his unimpressive fastball. With Hill's unability to keep his pitch-count down, and the Cubs terrible offense the last couple weeks...I dont find it impossible that this game could end up with one of those two lefties up there trying to get out Dunn and Griffey. Ill take my chance with those two hitters over the Erye-Ohman combo any night. Hope that helped. JMO.

Great post...as bad as the Reds pen has been, the Cubs has not been all that much better. Over the last five games, the Cubs bullpen as an ERA of 4.61 and over the same period of games, the Reds bullpen an ERA of 4.86.

Thanks to Buff too for his fantastic post about tonight's game.

MistaFlava · Jul 27, 2007

Don't forget that Rich Hill got lit up in his last road start against the Nats in a 6-0 loss.

MistaFlava · Jul 27, 2007

Would like to hear from guys like 5StarBomb and other Chicago area posters...

Addict101 · Jul 27, 2007

pool said:
One thing to consider any time you back Cinn. is their bullpen. They're just bad, especially against a good offensive lineup like the Cubs have. If Cinn. is going to win this game it will have to be in the first six innings. If it's tied or a 1 run Cinn. lead after the 6th I don't see them winning unless Arroyo goes the distance. I don't like either side in this one but I do lean to the over.

Hey man, good to see you around. Looking forward to making more cash on SEMO this winter. Take it easy.