Pit/Phi Line

bznofx19 · Jul 27, 2007

Did the books adjust their line at all when Utley's injury was known?

How come this line opened at -170 and hasn't really moved, considering that line came out before Utley got hurt?

I consider the pitching matchup fairly even, obviously a little edge to Moyer...but I don't see how the Phills can be -170 favorties the day after their co-MVP goes down.

Drunkn247 · Jul 27, 2007

pitt pitcher has an 8.17 era...Not even close to Moyer in any stretch of the imagination

MistaFlava · Jul 27, 2007

yeah but he doesnt give up HR's (1 in 7 starts this season) and the Phils rely pretty heavily on the long ball. Could be a very good play on the Pirates to finally win back-to-back for the first time in weeks.

SonnySixKill · Jul 27, 2007

-165 skybook

bznofx19 · Jul 27, 2007

believe me, I'm aware of the fact that John Van Benschoten is not the second coming of Nolan Ryan...I'm also aware that he has horrible stats up to today. There is no way that he is an 8.17 ERA type of guy though.

According to Baseball Prospectus he is closer to a 5.51 ERA while Moyer is a 5.42 ERA pitcher. Hardly not a landslide IMO.

Add in the fact that Jason Bay remembered how to swing a bat and is actually an asset to the team...I dont see why the Pirates can't pull off the upset tonight.

Phillies are beginning the post-Utley era tonight as well...

buffettgambler · Jul 27, 2007

bznofx19 said:
Did the books adjust their line at all when Utley's injury was known?

How come this line opened at -170 and hasn't really moved, considering that line came out before Utley got hurt?

I consider the pitching matchup fairly even, obviously a little edge to Moyer...but I don't see how the Phills can be -170 favorties the day after their co-MVP goes down.

The line has moved from five to ten cents off the open at most shops, which is about commensurate to the intrinsic absence of Utley. Add in the opportunity cost of line moves on the Phillies and away from the Pirates, and you will probably have the Phillies close at a price 15 cents below what they would if he were playing.
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Van B. can’t throw strikes right now, and can not be considered an equal to Moyer until he pitches to his ability, or the Phillies will make him pay with or without Utley.
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That said, the Phillies are slightly overvalued in my opinion.

LEXUS · Jul 27, 2007

O 10(-115)

BoxingGuy · Jul 27, 2007

Im thinking that one reason this line is refusing to move is due to the fact that The Phillies have used their bullpen a bunch the last couple days. JC Romero has throw each of the last 3 days, and both Mesa and Zagurski have thrown the previous 2 days. That doesnt leave a whole bunch in the bullpen with a struggling Jamie Moyer on the mound. Moyer threw 122 pitches in his last outing, and wasnt able to get through the 6th innning in his two previous starts. Moyer also hasnt thrown a game in Philly in over a month. There really arnt many positive things to mention regarding the Pirates and why they are holding their value here, but their bullpen is putting up a 1.85 ERA in their last 10 games. Pittsburgh has only batted .261 against lefties this year. If there is a positive factor for the Bucs, it is that the Phillies bullpen might struggle with only Flash and Madson probably available for extended duty tonight. This game is a total toss up IMO. Good luck, maybe take the + number.

bznofx19 · Jul 27, 2007

all of you guys have great points...I'm not saying Pitt should be favored by any means, I'm just saying there is no way I would lay -170 on the Phills.

I made a 1 unit play on Pit +162 in the Skybook Matchup Challenge on this board...I think thats all that I will invest in the Pirates for now.

fro11 · Jul 27, 2007

it is time to fade the phillies, its sad to say as they are my favorite team, but their bullpen is horrible. and the trickle down effect of utley is going to slow them down a ton. utley was in MVP contention. now you have to start abreham nunez at 2b(NO BAT AT ALL) and sub dobbs/helms at 3rd. howard might not see a pitch to hit the rest of the year.. fade them at least until the line comes back to reality. great value in Pitt probably all series

Journeyman · Jul 27, 2007

I like the OVER 10

nsight · Jul 27, 2007

The White Sox have traded veteran second baseman Tadahito Iguchi to the Philadelphia Phillies for pitching prospect Michael Dubee.
The Phillies were looking for a second baseman after All-Star Chase Utley had surgery on his hand on Friday. He is scheduled to miss at least four weeks.

theoldschool · Jul 27, 2007

I hate to bet on horrible pitchers (1.78 season WHIP, 2.16 3 game WHIP). The line opened up at -174 and is now -163.

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