Been in a little rut, so my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt.
White Sox -118
In my opinion, there is not another team on today’s card trading below their true worth than the White Sox. Although the White Sox are merely 7 and 9 since the break, you could defiantly see the difference in the team moral and quality of play in recent series. They also managed to put forth that record while playing a series against a decent home team in the Orioles, two of the better home teams in the Indians and Red Sox and then finally coming back home to play the best road team in baseball in the Tigers. During that 16 game span, the White Sox managed to score five or more runs in 10 of those games, as several of their key hitters finally seem to be breaking out of their slump, while their role players are doing the little things that lead to their success the last couple of years. Today they start a series in which should be their easiest since hosting the Orioles the first week of the month. Despite picking up steam themselves, the Blue Jays are simply less potent on the road once again this year.
On the pitching front, Garland is on “bounce back mode” for the fifth time this season, as he makes his first start since struggling in Fenway. Garland followed up his first four bounce back starts with quality ones, not allowing more than two earned runs in any of them, while going at least seven. Garlands struggles in July can be correlated to facing tough lineups, dealing with a knot in his shoulder and pitching with flu like symptoms- three variables that should be less of a factor in today’s game (Blue Jays can not be construed as a potent road lineup). Second half struggles have not been part of Garland’s repertoire the last couple of years, so assuming peaked production and possible dead army may not be prudent. When on, his ability to condense pitch counts and avoid a suspect bullpen should be complimented by an aggressive Blue Jays lineup, that is more potent against left handed pitchers and/or right handed power pitchers. Past success against the Blue Jays may be absent, but success against a few key hitters is not. A drop off in home productivity is skewed by that infamous Twins game. Having a sharp sinker always comes in handing when pitching in such a bandbox.
Towers has put forth two solid outings in his last three, but sustainability may be lacking. Despite having great command commensurate to hot streaks, Towers simply lacks an overpowering pitch to prevent him from being vulnerable in any given start. His low BABIP this month is not commensurate to past history or his recent well hit ball rate during that time span- which provides signs of potential regression. Continued struggles on the road from last year also exists, as he comes into today’s game with a seven plus road ERA. Towers is also prone to the long ball and not effective in holding runners on base- two other variables that can be magnified in this park, against an improving White Sox lineup, and a team that has shown more aggressiveness on the basepaths.
As a small home favorite, I will take my chances on Garland.
Other Undervalued teams
Yankees-
Since Guthrie’s dominating outing against the Yankees earlier this year, both the Yankees and Guthrie have gone in opposite directions. Guthrie has put forth a 4.10 ERA this month, but future regression off those numbers is still probable, as his BABIP and well hit rate still reside in unsustainable territory, while a decreasing GB ratio shows a decrease in command. On the other hand, the Yankees are the hottest lineup in the league, and far more productive since facing Guthrie last time out. Pettite has been solid on the road this year, put forth a quality start in his only outing against the Orioles this year, has had success against a few key hitters, and his ability to hold runners on as well as any should curtail the Orioles greatest asset-speed on the base paths.
Twins-
Bonser is streaky, and is coming off one of his best starts in his career (had a shutout going into the 8th). The Indians bats have been slowing down, something not ideal when being backed by Byrd at home. The Twins have the better rested and more efficient bullpen, which should put pressure on Byrd to pitch well at home- something that is easier said than done throughout his career.
White Sox -118
In my opinion, there is not another team on today’s card trading below their true worth than the White Sox. Although the White Sox are merely 7 and 9 since the break, you could defiantly see the difference in the team moral and quality of play in recent series. They also managed to put forth that record while playing a series against a decent home team in the Orioles, two of the better home teams in the Indians and Red Sox and then finally coming back home to play the best road team in baseball in the Tigers. During that 16 game span, the White Sox managed to score five or more runs in 10 of those games, as several of their key hitters finally seem to be breaking out of their slump, while their role players are doing the little things that lead to their success the last couple of years. Today they start a series in which should be their easiest since hosting the Orioles the first week of the month. Despite picking up steam themselves, the Blue Jays are simply less potent on the road once again this year.
On the pitching front, Garland is on “bounce back mode” for the fifth time this season, as he makes his first start since struggling in Fenway. Garland followed up his first four bounce back starts with quality ones, not allowing more than two earned runs in any of them, while going at least seven. Garlands struggles in July can be correlated to facing tough lineups, dealing with a knot in his shoulder and pitching with flu like symptoms- three variables that should be less of a factor in today’s game (Blue Jays can not be construed as a potent road lineup). Second half struggles have not been part of Garland’s repertoire the last couple of years, so assuming peaked production and possible dead army may not be prudent. When on, his ability to condense pitch counts and avoid a suspect bullpen should be complimented by an aggressive Blue Jays lineup, that is more potent against left handed pitchers and/or right handed power pitchers. Past success against the Blue Jays may be absent, but success against a few key hitters is not. A drop off in home productivity is skewed by that infamous Twins game. Having a sharp sinker always comes in handing when pitching in such a bandbox.
Towers has put forth two solid outings in his last three, but sustainability may be lacking. Despite having great command commensurate to hot streaks, Towers simply lacks an overpowering pitch to prevent him from being vulnerable in any given start. His low BABIP this month is not commensurate to past history or his recent well hit ball rate during that time span- which provides signs of potential regression. Continued struggles on the road from last year also exists, as he comes into today’s game with a seven plus road ERA. Towers is also prone to the long ball and not effective in holding runners on base- two other variables that can be magnified in this park, against an improving White Sox lineup, and a team that has shown more aggressiveness on the basepaths.
As a small home favorite, I will take my chances on Garland.
Other Undervalued teams
Yankees-
Since Guthrie’s dominating outing against the Yankees earlier this year, both the Yankees and Guthrie have gone in opposite directions. Guthrie has put forth a 4.10 ERA this month, but future regression off those numbers is still probable, as his BABIP and well hit rate still reside in unsustainable territory, while a decreasing GB ratio shows a decrease in command. On the other hand, the Yankees are the hottest lineup in the league, and far more productive since facing Guthrie last time out. Pettite has been solid on the road this year, put forth a quality start in his only outing against the Orioles this year, has had success against a few key hitters, and his ability to hold runners on as well as any should curtail the Orioles greatest asset-speed on the base paths.
Twins-
Bonser is streaky, and is coming off one of his best starts in his career (had a shutout going into the 8th). The Indians bats have been slowing down, something not ideal when being backed by Byrd at home. The Twins have the better rested and more efficient bullpen, which should put pressure on Byrd to pitch well at home- something that is easier said than done throughout his career.
