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  1. #51  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASEHEAD View Post
    I did ,steady 14k+ end of this year.

    Worthless US dollar...lol.What do you live on ,the barter system?

    Euro will crash before the USD,dollar will be fine.
    Yeah losing 40% of its value in 6 or 7 years is nothing to worry about....14k is a number, nothing more. If the dollar loses another 40% and the market is at 20k you will be declaring victory then as well when you in fact have gained nothing.
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  2. #52  
    Living...vicariously through myself. BASEHEAD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaulted Treehouse View Post
    Yeah losing 40% of its value in 6 or 7 years is nothing to worry about....14k is a number, nothing more. If the dollar loses another 40% and the market is at 20k you will be declaring victory then as well when you in fact have gained nothing.
    40% compared to what? Or are you just holding the dollar up to other currencies of the world that also move around?There are a variey of ways to calculate the relative value of a dollar and Im not thinking 40% is very accurate.How bout some data? I dont deny 24/7 printing presses and inaccurate inflation figures but seriously you folks have got to get a grip.

    The DOWs just a # but a number whos motion reflects investor sentiment,which is a key ingredient of the markets success or failure.
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  3. #53  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASEHEAD View Post
    40% compared to what? Or are you just holding the dollar up to other currencies of the world that also move around?There are a variey of ways to calculate the relative value of a dollar and Im not thinking 40% is very accurate.How bout some data? I dont deny 24/7 printing presses and inaccurate inflation figures but seriously you folks have got to get a grip.

    The DOWs just a # but a number whos motion reflects investor sentiment,which is a key ingredient of the markets success or failure.
    Basehead, go to the weekly chart of the Eur/Dollar. http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/Chart.html?symbol=EUR/USD
    It actually has lost more than 40% in a shorter time than I thought....I have a grip. I'm not a sky is falling person at all, besides the housing market. But people who point to the markets should realize that currency impact is real.
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  4. #54  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaulted Treehouse View Post
    Basehead, go to the weekly chart of the Eur/Dollar. http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/Chart.html?symbol=EUR/USD
    It actually has lost more than 40% in a shorter time than I thought....I have a grip. I'm not a sky is falling person at all, besides the housing market. But people who point to the markets should realize that currency impact is real.
    Thats what I figured you were doing.

    Dont their currencies also move up (get stronger?).What happens to the US dollar when the euro fades away into oblivion?

    This is not an accurate measure IMHO of the purchasing power of a dollar,which what were talking about when you say MY $$$ is worthless.
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  5. #55  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASEHEAD View Post
    Thats what I figured you were doing.

    Dont their currencies also move up (get stronger?).What happens to the US dollar when the euro fades away into oblivion?

    This is not an accurate measure IMHO of the purchasing power of a dollar,which what were talking about when you say MY $$$ is worthless.
    C'mon Base, your dollars aren't worthless. They are simply worth "less." And significantly less against the other major currency. The Yen is played with to keep the carry trade going....Ad nauseum in other threads I have discussed how the weak dollar inflates quite a bit, including markets....In fact I'll say that if the dollar rallies to the 1.33 level, the market will take a nice hair cut.
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  6. #56  
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    <CENTER>Disturbing Trend #5
    The Alarming Growth of Foreign-held Debt</CENTER>
    Foreign debt hangs like a sword of Damocles over the American economy. As our table illustrates this disturbing trend has shown the highest growth rate of them all. At this writing, foreign governments, institutions and individuals hold a collectively over $2 trillion of U.S. paper -- roughly one fourth of the national debt. Japan alone holds over $600 billion and mainland China over $400 billion. To suggest a measuring stick, federal tax receipts stand at roughly $2.2 trillion.
    It is not just the presence of the debt itself which worries the inner sanctums of Wall Street, but the threat foreign-held debt represents to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Through the purchase and sale of U.S. Treasuries, foreign creditors can force interest rates up when the Fed would like to keep them down and force them down when the Fed would like to keep them up. In other words, the Fed very well may be losing control of interest rate policy. Recently, when the Congress threatened trade sanctions against China, the bond market began declining, thus pushing up interest rates. This foreign influence on Fed policy-making did not exist even five years ago.


    <CENTER></CENTER>
    There is an even darker aspect to the problem of foreign held debt, and that has to do with the international reaction to the future value of the dollar. If faith is lost, or even weakened to the extent that the trend to diversify out of dollars gathers steam, what is now a trickle of returning U.S. dollars could become a torrent. This, in turn, could trigger an uncontrollable inflation and dollar crisis globally.
    Some analysts have pointed out that such an exodus would be farfetched in that the holders themselves would have a great deal to lose by unloading a large portion of their positions. The fact of the matter, though, is that the exodus has already begun. For example, Russia recently announced that it was juggling its reserves to purchase Japanese yen. Several Gulf oil producing states have quietly followed suit and are switching out of dollars and into both the euro and yen. Japan over the past year has actually reduced its Treasury position and Chinese officials recently suggested that its central bank might exchange some of its more than $1 trillion in reserves for gold and oil. Many nation states with large dollar holdings have formed sovereign wealth funds, the purpose of which is to utilize reserves to acquire other assets including hard commodities, natural resource companies and an array of other assets. Analysts often infer that their exodus will be controlled, but the problem with systemic crisis is that the evolution from a controlled liquidation to panic, particularly a panic in the ranks of private institutional funds, can come quickly and without warning. That said, even a slow-motion unraveling, or a simple withdrawal from regular U.S. debt purchases, could have a devastating effect on the value of the dollar.


    <CENTER>Disturbing Trend #6
    The Long-Term Decline of the U.S. Dollar</CENTER>
    Would you own a stock that performed like the item represented in the graph below? The dollar is now a currency under siege. The cumulative effect of the disturbing trends outlined here has been to undermine the purchasing power of the dollar. In reality, it has been steadily debased in fits and starts since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913. However, in recent years that steady debasement has taken on a more urgent character due to the combined threats of a shrinking market for U.S. Treasuries and the dollar as the chief reserve currency. Add the current problems in the mortgage markets, which have pushed several major banks against the ropes, and you have the potential for an imminent dollar crisis. We may no longer have to gaze into the distant future for a glimpse of what is to come for the dollar. The day of reckoning might very well have already arrived.
    The 1913 dollar is now worth less than 5 in purchasing power. The 1945 dollar is now worth less than 10. The 1970 dollar is now worth 19.5. The 1985 dollar (during a time when we were told repeatedly inflation was benign) is now worth only 58. This disturbing trend is troublesome to say the least, but when you consider that the depreciation of a currency, when it comes to inflation, is technically infinite (in other words there really is no bottom), you begin to understand why some have begun to view gold as a permanent aspect to the contemporary portfolio.
    To show you how far we've come in so short a time, consider this statement in November, 2002 from Federal Reserve governor Benjamin Bernanke when asked about the tanking U.S. economy and fears of a deflation were running high: "The US government has a technology called a printing press -- or, today, its electronic equivalent -- that allows (the Federal Reserve) to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost." How many of us would have ever imagined a statement like that being uttered by a member of the Federal Reserve? And now that same Benjamin Bernanke has been appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve.


    <CENTER></CENTER>


    <CENTER></CENTER>
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  7. #57  
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    So we all know about the foreign debt and trade imbalances weve accrued over time but the final chart you show is not representing a 40% drop in worthiness over the last 7 years.

    Not even close.

    Acually a weak dollar helps the trade imbalance in the long run ,as far as the notes goes ,its only a problem if theyre all liquidated simultaneously which is not likely to happen.

    How does one put a figure to the "debt" China owes us for buying all thier shit? It would seem to me if we stopped buying their bargain basement goods, told them to take their IOUs and fuck off theyd be the ones in trouble.

    301 toy recalls this year- 100% made in China....that cant be good for business....among other things.
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  8. #58  
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    No the euro/dollar chart shows the drop as I posted the link a few posts back--weekly chart--....I hate to pull rank here, since I never do, but I teach economics for a living. I'm open to all opinions and find there are some intelligent people on the site, but I'm definitely not talking out of my ass here.
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  9. #59 Nice fucking day eh? 
    I'm still here Mo-fo's cussin'it's Avatar
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    Hmm, basey. Kinda looked like you were knocking at the 14K door there thru Wed.? Perhaps after Oct. gets thru, you might have a sniff. LOL (Cry out loud for all you equities holders)

    Keep telling you the credit meltdown is like throwing a boulder in a fishbowl. Yet no one seems to fucking care here. Foundation is more like quick sand rather than the rock solid that so many righties preach in here.




    :ughhh:




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  10. #60  
    Living...vicariously through myself. BASEHEAD's Avatar
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    Bet it bounces tomorrow?

    Each and every day its overspecualtion based on one specific data/quotation that bumps it up or down.Its the very definition of volatile,not the titanic Cuss.Today was an easy day to avoid disaster as this was easy to see coming.BNP was no secret.

    Good $$$ to be made on these dips incidently.

    This too will pass.

    Only 13% of all mortgages subprime-only 14% of those are deliquent.
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  11. #61  
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    Retail and banks led the way lower today.

    Its time for the market to start discounting lower earnings for 08.

    The housing problems are not being exaggerated.

    Didnt hear it myself, but was called and told it was said that 1 of 3 subprime mortgages in Ohio are in or soon will be in foreclosure.

    Housing was the cause for the spending boom we've had past 5 years, and now it will be cause of consumer spending bust starting now and foward next 12 months.

    Where is our resident mortgage broker THE RIGHT WING? He will know more about this than most of us, but hes usually bullish so getting him to say its toast may be impossible.
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  12. #62  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaulted Treehouse View Post
    Yeah losing 40% of its value in 6 or 7 years is nothing to worry about....14k is a number, nothing more. If the dollar loses another 40% and the market is at 20k you will be declaring victory then as well when you in fact have gained nothing.

    Only true if you're buying imports or traveling abroad.

    I think the fact that how economy is doing great despite a weakening dollar is a very big indication that the weight given the dollar's trading value is very much overhyped.
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  13. #63  
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    I truely do not watch and I'm not the least bit concerned about the daily market. Short term shit happens.

    History tells us that five years from now, the investment you made this morning will have grown approximately 8% per year.

    Unless you're an active trader, that is you gamble in the stock market, or you need the money short term, there's no need to watch the daily dow.
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  14. #64  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    Only true if you're buying imports or traveling abroad.

    I think the fact that how economy is doing great despite a weakening dollar is a very big indication that the weight given the dollar's trading value is very much overhyped.
    is it really possible to live without buying imports?sounds nice its a little like the enviromentalist telling you to ride a bike to work, not gonna happen. Even if your buying american there is a good chance that parts or raw materials are coming from outside the country so you can't get away from a weak dollar. They may not be instant as it often lags and you don't feel it for 6months to a year. You can state a few positives but there are far more negatives and I doubt seriously anyone of you would prefer you dollar to be worth 40% less on the international market despite any positives you post.

    If anything this thread is a good contrarian indicator.
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  15. #65  
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    Quote Originally Posted by t2050 View Post
    is it really possible to live without buying imports?sounds nice its a little like the enviromentalist telling you to ride a bike to work, not gonna happen. Even if your buying american there is a good chance that parts or raw materials are coming from outside the country so you can't get away from a weak dollar. They may not be instant as it often lags and you don't feel it for 6months to a year. You can state a few positives but there are far more negatives and I doubt seriously anyone of you would prefer you dollar to be worth 40% less on the international market despite any positives you post.

    If anything this thread is a good contrarian indicator.
    Positives like the two biggest issues: Correcting the misvalued yuan or closing the immense trade gap?

    Imports from China Ill assume you mean.Cheap labor to be had worldwide,Indias the next China minus the bad Commie economics.

    Remember boss a dollar thats too highly valued has its repercussions as well.Its a cycle.It wasnt too long ago the dollar was valued too strongly.
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  16. #66  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASEHEAD View Post
    Positives like the two biggest issues: Correcting the misvalued yuan or closing the immense trade gap?

    Imports from China Ill assume you mean.Cheap labor to be had worldwide,Indias the next China minus the bad Commie economics.

    Remember boss a dollar thats too highly valued has its repercussions as well.Its a cycle.It wasnt too long ago the dollar was valued too strongly.

    base are you really saying you prefer the dollar worth 40&#37; less? yes/no
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  17. #67  
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    Quote Originally Posted by t2050 View Post
    base are you really saying you prefer the dollar worth 40% less? (than the Euro) yes/no


    Be specific.

    Is it ideal,no but IMO the dollar is being purposely devalued.The fact that the dollar is trading lousy vs the euro is hardly a cause for dispair.Eventually theyll trade roles....probably will signal the end of the Euro at that time.

    The thing that folks simply phase out is that this process is dynamic.
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  18. #68  
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    hope your right I have many US investments so I'm not trying to be happy or smug about the USD falling. Just never thought the day would come when USD and Canadian dollar were about par. I would of predicted the second coming before I called for that.

    I know people think the chinese wouldnt hurt themselves by killing the golden goose but just not sure the chinese government really cares about their citizens that much.
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  19. #69  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    Only true if you're buying imports or traveling abroad.
    WTF???

    please tell me you are not that ignorant.

    - I'm not even going to waste my time telling you why, if it doesn't come from FOX or CNBC or USA TODAY I'm sure you'll discount it.

    very simply and plainly, when a currency declines in value, everything else goes up as a result. housing, oil, metals, healthcare, toothbrushes, food etc.

    surely you've noticed 99% of the things you buy have gone up 10% since last year right?? well, the truth is those things didn't go up in price, the dollar is just worth less.
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  20. #70  
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    Here's a concept lefties have a hard time grasping.

    RESULTS

    You see, the dollar has been declining for a few years now, and inflation has not been a problem. Thus, your entire statement is proven to be worthless.

    PS: Inflation has not been 10% in the last year.

    One should refrain from using the term ignorant when you have no fucking clue.

    10%
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  21. #71  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    Here's a concept lefties have a hard time grasping.

    RESULTS

    You see, the dollar has been declining for a few years now, and inflation has not been a problem. Thus, your entire statement is proven to be worthless.

    PS: Inflation has not been 10% in the last year.

    One should refrain from using the term ignorant when you have no fucking clue.

    10%
    No but money creation has been faster than 10%. And those printing presses were fast at work in Europe and the U.S. today. The talking heads sit there and opine on liquidity injections like it is a back ache. Like junkies, CNBC thinks the FED is supposed to save the undisciplined at every turn. Tough to watch.
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  22. #72  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    Here's a concept lefties have a hard time grasping.

    RESULTS

    You see, the dollar has been declining for a few years now, and inflation has not been a problem. Thus, your entire statement is proven to be worthless.

    PS: Inflation has not been 10% in the last year.

    One should refrain from using the term ignorant when you have no fucking clue.

    10%
    Oh I forgot....gov't says it's 2.5% so it must be true. they would never lie about something as significant as that.

    the 10% figure I quote is based on the old school way of figuring inflation that was used for 50 years.: a price measure of a basket of the same goods....now days whenever an item gets to high they replace it with a cheaper item...i.e. hamburger for steaks etc.

    lefty? I'm probably the most politcally conservative person who posts here.

    you're likely the type of guy that thinks that since plasma t.v.'s have come down in price inflation is in check.

    here's two good links. yes, it is not mainstream corporate media so it must be a conspiracy theory.

    http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs?

    http://www.mises.org/story/2302
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  23. #73  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaulted Treehouse View Post
    No but money creation has been faster than 10%. And those printing presses were fast at work in Europe and the U.S. today. The talking heads sit there and opine on liquidity injections like it is a back ache. Like junkies, CNBC thinks the FED is supposed to save the undisciplined at every turn. Tough to watch.
    Couldn't agree more. Seems like the Treasury is the junkie here, workin them presses overtime.

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  24. #74  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaulted Treehouse View Post
    No but money creation has been faster than 10%. And those printing presses were fast at work in Europe and the U.S. today. The talking heads sit there and opine on liquidity injections like it is a back ache. Like junkies, CNBC thinks the FED is supposed to save the undisciplined at every turn. Tough to watch.
    They dont want to save the undisciplined,the FED in this instance wants to keep the good ones afloat.Theyd just assume let the subprimes bust IMO.

    The problem today will be whether the cash infusions are viewed as proaction or reaction.
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  25. #75  
    Triple digit silver kook Dawoofdaddy's Avatar
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    Getting butchered again today.

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