Hey guys in Atlanta (Braves fans), what do you think of Arizona ML +127?

MistaFlava · Jul 28, 2007

I just don't see why they wouldn't win this game:

- D-Backs have won 7 straight games

- D-Backs have won 5 straight games against the Braves dating back to last season.

- Although Smoltz has been a better pitcher than Doug Davis in their last three starts, he gets only 3.3 runs of run support in those games compared ot the 5.7 Davis is getting.

- Braves are 1-2 in Smotlz last three starts, D-Backs are 3-0 in Davis' last three starts.

- Arizona is now 1 game behind the NL West leading Dodgers...should be motivation to keep the streak alive.

- Smoltz has been good but unlucky against Arizona having not beat them since June 18, 1999.

- John Smoltz struggles a lot more against bats from the left side and Arizona has 6 potential starters who bat from the left side.

- Orlando Hudson, Chad Tracy, Stephen Drew, Tony Clark, Jeff Davanon and Miguel Montero all bat from the left side and could possibly all be in this afternoon's lineup.

- John Smoltz has an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP of 1.13 and opponents are hitting only .245 in night games. However, in day games Smoltz has an ERA of 3.82, a WHIP of 1.47 and opponents are hitting .290 against him.

- Arizona is 8-2 at home when Davis starts this season.

I think the D-Backs are a good play getting a ton of value against Smoltz today. Baseball is about hot streaks and the D-Backs are as hot as it gets right now...would love some thoughts or objective opinions on this and please don't just say 'Braves are the best'. Thanks

:aktion033

BoxingGuy · Jul 28, 2007

Lving in Arizona, I get the chance to watch the Diamondbacks play quite a bit. The thing that might gone unseen, is that while the Diamondbacks have been on a quite a run, their pitching oppositions have been nothing more than horseshit. Reyes, Kim, Mitre, Olsen, Willis, Marshall, and Hill have all struggled as of late. If you look a little bit closer, you will see that anytime the Diamondbacks face a pitcher that can bring it in the mid-90s, they have struggled to get the bat on the ball. Guys like Gallardo, Harang, and Wainwright have all given them a tough time in the past month. I think we also saw last night how beatable this bullpen in Arizona is. Until they can get the ball into Valverdes hand, the other guys simple struggle in getting the job done. Cruz seems to be cooling off after a fantastic strech, and Lyon simply falls behind in the count too often to consistantly maintain a low ERA. Also, Altanta is hitting lefties at a .329 clip in their last 10 games. This hot-streak the D-backs are on simply has to do with the fact they have been able to face pitchers that struggled with thier control and were in bad places. Im going to lay the little wood I have to on Smoltz and ride the Braves today. Good luck.

knowthegame · Jul 28, 2007

My take on this game

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Blazed

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Braves today
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>Damn!! is the entire forum on the ATL today or what???? I like it also, but way to many on it for me to play it. Seen it way way to many times, have NOT seen 1 person post Arizona today. Hope Braves win so the forum all can cash it. Braves struggle vs lefties. gritty comeback last night by ATL almost stole that 1. I admit it, I've been scared:scared: off this 1 due to about everyone being on the Braves.
GL ALL
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HPark1 · Jul 28, 2007

Don't know how you can back Davis, guy has one of the worst whips in the major leagues. You can't get away with that ridiculously high walk total forever.

jeckll · Jul 28, 2007

I just can't pass up Smoltz at -129...too good. If it's a trap, I'm falling right into it.

bigplaymaker+ · Jul 28, 2007

Braves win IMO, Smoltz has always been the man when Atl is on a mini losing streak, Dbax are on a roll - but Atl should be the play.

MistaFlava · Jul 28, 2007

BoxingGuy said:
Lving in Arizona, I get the chance to watch the Diamondbacks play quite a bit. The thing that might gone unseen, is that while the Diamondbacks have been on a quite a run, their pitching oppositions have been nothing more than horseshit. Reyes, Kim, Mitre, Olsen, Willis, Marshall, and Hill have all struggled as of late. If you look a little bit closer, you will see that anytime the Diamondbacks face a pitcher that can bring it in the mid-90s, they have struggled to get the bat on the ball. Guys like Gallardo, Harang, and Wainwright have all given them a tough time in the past month. I think we also saw last night how beatable this bullpen in Arizona is. Until they can get the ball into Valverdes hand, the other guys simple struggle in getting the job done. Cruz seems to be cooling off after a fantastic strech, and Lyon simply falls behind in the count too often to consistantly maintain a low ERA. Also, Altanta is hitting lefties at a .329 clip in their last 10 games. This hot-streak the D-backs are on simply has to do with the fact they have been able to face pitchers that struggled with thier control and were in bad places. Im going to lay the little wood I have to on Smoltz and ride the Braves today. Good luck.

Thanks for the input. The bullpen was bad last night and Lyon has struggled but they still hold an ERA of 2.04 in the last five games so im not too worried.

I am sticking to my guns on the D-Backs for the simple fact that Doug Davis, although not a great pitcher, is defintiely a second half kinda guy.

2003

Pre All-Star: 5.37 ERA, 1.82 WHIP
Post All-Star: 2.58 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

2004

Pre All-Star: 3.46 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Post All-Star: 3.29 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

2005

Pre All-Star: 4.11 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
Post All-Star: 3.52 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

2006

Pre All-Star: 4.95 ERA, 1.56 WHIP
Post All-Star: 4.87 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

2007

Pre All-Star: 4.26 ERA, 1.75 WHIP
Post All-Star: 3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Clearly he makes adjustments at the break and I think Davis can get the job done this afternoon. In terms of bullpens, this game might come down to the pens:

Atlanta (on the road)

ERA = 4.16
WHIP = 1.48

Arizona (at home)

ERA = 3.12
WHIP = 1.21

Shoulda be interesting...gametime soon, im still licking my chops at the price on the D-Backs.

gynecologist · Jul 28, 2007

Skinsraj has 2 units on the Braves..

Something tells me ATL wins today.

MistaFlava · Jul 28, 2007

You also have to consider value guys. If you look at the meetings between these two teams the LAST 3 SEASONS, the numbers are staggering.

ATL generates an ROI of -48.8% in 14 meetings

ARI generates an ROI of +57.9% in 14 meetings

gynecologist · Jul 28, 2007

Good job Mf

knowthegame · Jul 28, 2007

Nice

smart ass play here by u. Whole world on Smoltz and the ATL. Way to pull the trigger on that 1. :aktion033

MistaFlava · Jul 28, 2007

thanks guys...wasnt around to see what happened after ATL tied it 3-3 but checked my phone while on the beach and saw a 4-3 final. Bullpen comes through and D-Backs continue to roll.

Thanks to all for the input.

Hey guys in Atlanta (Braves fans), what do you think of Arizona ML +127?

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