Big Al McMordie
Detroit Tigers vs. LAA Angels
At 8:05 our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Los Angeles Angels. Don't look now, but all of a sudden the Tigers look a little vulnerable. After heading into, and heading out of, the all star game on a hot streak that saw them win ten of twelve games through July 19, the Tigers have now begun a severe slide having lost five of their last six games. But if there is anyone who can straighten out this ship, it is their veteran righthanded starter Jeremy Bonderman. Despite Bonderman's poor performance his last time out against the White Sox, the Tigers are still the team to beat in the AL Central Division, and Bonderman is still their ace. He should have no problem bouncing right back from the poor outing on July 24, as he has proven that he can pitch well against the Angels, shutting them down for eight innings back on May 24. The Tigers are now 12-2 in Bonderman's last fourteen games overall. Take Detroit. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Vegas Experts
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, July 29th, 1:35 P.M. EDT
Phillies have roughed up the Pirates' staff in the first two games of this series and should continue here vs. Ian Snell who has a 9.00 ERA his last three starts and the Bucs bullpen which has a road ERA of over 4.70. PITTSBURGH is also 31-19 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season while PHILADELPHIA is 40-26 OVER against right-handed starters this season.
Play on: Over
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, July 29th, 4:40 P.M. EST EST
Braves send Tim Hudson to the hill in the finale of their three- games set with the Diamondbacks in Arizona knowing he has cashed in 14 of his last 17 road team starts in July. In addition, Hudson is is in excellent current form and is 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA in his career team starts against Arizona. Back Hudson and the Braves here today.
Play on: Atlanta
Karl Garrett
Boston (-160) at TAMPA BAY
Matsuzaka is coming off of 7 shutout innings in a road win at Cleveland, and did blank Tampa Bay earlier this season going 8 shutout in a win back on July 3rd. In that July start, Scott Kazmir opposed and worked 6 innings of 3-run ball in taking the loss.
Kazmir's last start against Boston prior to the July effort was a complete game shutout last July.
7 of Matsuzaka's 11 road starts have played UNDER the total, and I think this one will as well.
Both hurlers are capable of putting up plenty of goose eggs in this one, so the G-Man says take the UNDER in this low-scoring contest!
3♦ UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Atlanta (-145) at ARIZONA
We believe a couple of streaks will be halted in today's game, as we look for Atlanta to snap their 4 game slide, and in the process stop Arizona's 8 game winning streak.
Tim Hudson is 10-5 for the season, and has gone 4-1 on the road with an ERA just over 3. Livan Hernandez counters, and is coming off a home win that moved him to 4-1 at Chase Field. Prior to that win, Hernandez had been rocked for 15 runs in just over 26 innings for an 0-1 mark in his 4 previous starts.
We believe Hernandez who sports a lifetime 4-13 mark against the Braves will struggle again today.
The Bravos have won Hudson's last 6 starts, and they are 15-7 overall when Hudson takes the hill.
We like those kinds of numbers, and we like Atlanta to snap their losing streak, and the Arizona winning streak.
Play on the Braves.
3♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco rallied in the ninth inning to win Saturday's game, 4-3. And we all know the Barry Bonds watch is on as he's one homer shy of matching Hank Aaron's total and two shy of becoming the all-time home run king.
Matt Morris (7-6, 4.16 ERA) is pitching for the Giants against Florida's Sergio Mitre (4-5, 3.26). Morris is 3-1 in the home park with a 3.53 ERA.
San Francisco has lost Morris' last five starts and last time out he gave up four run over six innings in a 7-5 loss to the Braves. He facd Florida last season and gave up three runs on six hits in six innings.
Mitre got drilled in his last start, giving up seven runs on seven hits over three innings of a 9-3 loss in Arizona.
Florida has lost six in a row while the Giants have now rattled off four straight wins. Let's play San Francisco in this one to keep both those streaks going and look for Barry to tie the record today.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Chris Jordan
Washington at N.Y. METS (-230)
Today, we're in the same series and we're taking the Mets on the Run Line.
It appears to me John Maine has regained his form after suffering two straight setbacks, as he was sharp against Pittsburgh last Tuesday, giving up just two runs from five hits.
With the win he moved to 11-5, and in doing so, struck out seven against just one walk. He sports a rather low ERA of 3.04, and his 2-1 mark in five career starts against the Nationals should provide him with confidence.
Maine should get plenty of run support in this one, as Billy Traber won’t be able to withstand the hitting attack of New York today, especially after the Nats won the nightcap last night with a rookie toeing the rubber in Shea Stadium. I look for the Mets to come out blazing on offense.
3♦ METS RUN LINE
Dave Cokin
Take "(959) MIL Brewers"
The Gallardo express makes a stop in St. Louis today as the Brewers and Cardinals wrap up their weekend set. Milwaukee's sensational rookie continues to actually exceed the hype and he's matched up with a pretty soft adversary in Kip Wells. Off the lengthy Saturday twinbill, I think having the starter far more likely to offer six quality innings becomes even more of a plus, so I'll back the Brewers and Gallardo in this contest.
Sunday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (1st) Temporary Saint, 7-2
(5th) Athena of Troy, 5-1
Calder Race Course (4th) Holiday Moment, 6-1
(5th) Running for Cash, 4-1
Canterbury Park (2nd) Smoke Magic, 4-1
(8th) Tote the Bench, 3-1
Charles Town (3rd) Inmywilddreams, 3-1
(8th) It's a Risque Girl, 5-1
Colonial Downs (3rd) Duke of Earl (Ire), 5-1
(4th) Willow Run, 3-1
Del Mar (6th) Wings of an Angel, 10-1
(7th) I Can See, 8-1
Delaware Park (1st) Fit for a Fight, 7-2
(7th) Blue Carnation, 4-1
Ellis Park (1st) La Panthere Rose, 3-1
(3rd) Sweetbriar Academy, 9-2
Emerald Downs (8th) Game Writer, 10-1
(10th) On the Hill, 3-1
Finger Lakes (5th) Ascot Dancer, 7-2
(6th) Lake Egri, 8-1
Fort Erie (5th) Northern Peak, 3-1
(6th) Stormy Kristine, 3-1
Hastings Park (4th) Principe's Passion, 9-2
(6th) Alpha Danjur, 3-1
Lone Star Park (4th) Crusader's Choice, 7-2
(8th) Starrville, 9-2
Louisiana Downs (4th) Eccentric Girl, 9-2
(7th) Gabby's Song, 7-2
Monmouth Park (2nd) Oh Deanne O, 4-1
(7th) Tiznow My Way, 6-1
Mountaineer (2nd) Pure Thunder, 3-1
(10th) Skylight Drive, 4-1
Northlands (3rd) Cosmic Warrior, 3-1
(6th) I Love Chocolate, 3-1
Philadelphia Park (2nd) Sir Sun, 3-1
(9th) Arabian Cat, 8-1
River Downs (6th) Needarunner, 5-1
(8th) Yankee Road, 5-1
Saratoga (6th) Banrock, 7-2
(7th) Talented Treasure, 3-1
Suffolk Downs (6th) Blazing Ballado, 4-1
(9th) Alabama Jubilee, 6-1
Thistledown (1st) Little Lady Sway, 7-2
(9th) Penny Wise, 3-1
Woodbine (2nd) Dragonmaster, 4-1
(9th) Holy Soul, 4-1
BING CROSBY H. (G1), 8TH-DMR, $300,000, 3YO/UP, 6F, 5:30 P.M. PDT, 7-29
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 NORTHERN SOLDIER KORINER BRIAN POTTS C L 114
2 BORDONARO SPAWR WILLIAM MIGLIORE R 120
3 GREG'S GOLD HOFMANS DAVID ESPINOZA V 117
4 CORAZONDELCAMPEON CANANI JULIO C PEDROZA M A 114
5 DECLAN'S MOON ELLIS RONALD W VALDIVIA J JR 115
6 IN SUMMATION CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE NAKATANI C S 114
7 GOTAGHOSTOFACHANCE STEIN ROGER M COURT J K 114
8 E Z WARRIOR BAFFERT BOB FLORES D R 111
9 BATTLE WON MITCHELL MIKE BAZE M C 115
Sunday's $300,000 Bing Crosby H. (G1) marks the return of the unbeaten E Z WARRIOR (Exploit), a very talented sophomore who figures to be showing the way once the gates open, but we'll give top honors to the late-running GREG'S GOLD (Lake George).
Trained by David Hofmans, Greg's Gold captured the 2005 Bing Crosby from off the pace, netting a career-best 106 BRIS Speed rating, before heading to the sidelines. He made his return to competition in February, taking an allowance, and then reappeared in April to record a solid second in the Potrero Grande Breeders' Cup H. (G2) before winning the Tiznow S. over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track. The six-year-old gelding didn't fire when finishing fourth in the Aristides Breeders' Cup S. (G3) at Churchill Downs last out, but we'll throw out that effort and look for a return to form (4-1-0 line in his previous six starts). Greg's Gold shows a pair of nice works over the Polytrack, and there's plenty of speed to set up his rally.
Grade 1 winner BORDONARO (Memo [Chi]) merits a lot of respect. He faltered last time in the True North H. (G2) at Belmont Park, but the classy six-year-old gelding has worked forwardly since then, including a recent six-furlong bullet in 1:11 4/5 over the Polytrack. He won't get carried wide from post 2 like he did in his last outing, and his Speed ratings are extremely strong (three consecutive 106s prior to the True North). Bordonaro appears very capable of striking under Richard Migliore.
E Z Warrior is obviously very talented, and he's the speed of the speed here. We love the way he's training over the Polytrack, and Bob Baffert will likely have him ready to fire. The sophomore gets a weight break from his elders, and E Z Warrior has a good chance to lead all the way.
BATTLE WON (Honour and Glory) is a top three candidate for Mike Mitchell, who is off to a fast start over the new track (11-3-3-1). The seven-year-old gelding doesn't win much (winless since 2005), but he gets part often. He'll likely appreciate the cutback to six furlongs off his third in the seven-furlong Triple Bend Invitational H. (G1), and we'll use Battle Won in the exotics.
NORTHERN SOLDIER (Yankee Victor) hasn't been a serious factor in his last three graded starts. He owns three wins from five starts at the distance and shows a couple of sharp drills over the new surface, so we can't dismiss him from exotics consideration. The stalker should enjoy a good trip.
DECLAN'S MOON (Malibu Moon) was diagnosed with a throat ailment and was finally able to snap a seven-race losing streak last time, winning a six-furlong allowance/optional claiming event. That was certainly an encouraging performance, but we're not ready to jump back on the bandwagon yet. The 2004 champion juvenile is certainly a good story, and we won't be disappointed if he continues to run well.
IN SUMMATION (Put It Back) earned his first win since 2005 when capturing the grassy Sneakbox S. at Monmouth Park last out, and this is an ambitious move by his connections. Turf horses tend to do well on the Polytrack, but we'll let In Summation beat us. GOTAGHOSTOFACHANCE (Silver Ghost) will be running late, but we doubt he's good enough to be a serious factor. CORAZONDELCAMPEON (Comic Strip) is very quick and will likely be contesting the pace here. We can't envision him sustaining his speed, though.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-GREG'S GOLD
2nd-BORDONARO
3rd-E Z WARRIOR
JIM DANDY S. (G2), 9TH-SAR, $500,000, 3YO, 1 1/8M, 5:20 P.M. EDT, 7-29
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SIGHTSEEING MCGAUGHEY CLAUDE III PRADO E S 121
2 FLASHSTORM LUKAS D WAYNE BRIDGMOHAN S X 115
3 STREET SENSE NAFZGER CARL A BOREL C H 123
4 COWTOWN CAT PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 121
5 TIZ WONDERFUL ASMUSSEN STEVEN M VELAZQUEZ J R 119
6 C P WEST ZITO NICHOLAS P VELASQUEZ CORNE 115
The return of Kentucky Derby (G1) hero STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) headlines the $500,000 Jim Dandy S. (G2) at Saratoga on Sunday. The Carl Nafzger trainee is unraced since a game runner-up performance in the Preakness S. (G1), but has trained well in the interim and will be tough to hold off as the likely overwhelming favorite. The dark bay drew in the middle of the six-horse field and will be once again piloted by Calvin Borel.
TIZ WONDERFUL (Tiznow), the most likely upsetter should the top one fail to fire, debuted over this surface last September and rolled to a decisive 12 1/2-length tally for conditioner Steve Asmussen. The burly ridgling concluded his freshman campaign with a triumph in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) and was sidelined at the beginning of the year with a tendon injury. He has been prepping for his return since early June and should be forwardly placed throughout, giving him first run on the chalk. John Velazquez has the assignment on the bay.
Peter Pan S. (G2) victor SIGHTSEEING (Pulpit) was last seen finishing a distant third in the Dwyer S. (G2), but we expect major improvement in here for the Shug McGaughey charge. The well-bred colt was a game second in the Wood Memorial S. (G1) three prior, and then contested a pair of one-turn events, which is not suitable to his running style. Although we're not certain if the dark bay is good enough to take home the top prize, we'd be surprised if he wasn't in the top three.
C P WEST (Came Home) competed in the final two legs of the Triple Crown, finishing a solid fourth in the Preakness prior to a distant fifth-place finish in the Belmont S. (G1) for Nick Zito. The Kentucky-bred broke his maiden at first asking over this oval and shows five nice works in Saratoga Springs, New York, in advance of this. A repeat of his Preakness effort could find him challenging for an award under Cornelio Velasquez.
FLASHSTORM (Storm Cat) has improved steadily for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and will, at the very least, be a pace presence in this spot. A strong second at 59-1 in the Iowa Derby last out, the front-running bay is bred to handle the trip and could hang around for a while if allowed to dawdle on the front. Shaun Bridgmohan will guide the colt.
Illinois Derby (G2) winner COWTOWN CAT (Distorted Humor) has thrown in a pair of clunkers following his signature win and we're not confident in the colt's chances with this group. The Todd Pletcher pupil will have the red-hot Garrett Gomez in the saddle and is capable of a placing with his best, but we'll look elsewhere on this occasion.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-STREET SENSE
2nd-TIZ WONDERFUL
3rd-SIGHTSEEING
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Delaware for Sunday July 29, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Delaware
Delaware - Race #3 - Post: 1:39pm
Rating:
Choice Plays:
#2 HONEST EXPECTATION (ML=6/1)
#4 APACHE ROAD (ML=3/1)
#7 RAVALO (ML=2/1)
HONEST EXPECTATION - Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a strong effort last time around the track within the last month or so. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. APACHE ROAD - When Motion gives Rose a leg up on any mount, you have to feel that with their winning percentage you have decidedly more than a fighting chance. It looks like Rose had to learn all about this colt on June 27th when riding him for the initial time. Back atop again today. I like this colt. Has the highest earnings per race in here. RAVALO - I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this colt's PPs. Almost always in the money. After the contest aboard this horse on July 8th, the jockey is going to be acquainted with the colt much better. This campaigner coming off a strong contest in the last month is a serious competitor in my opinion.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 COLONEL C'S JET (ML=4/1), #5 SEVENTH WONDER (ML=8/1), #1 BOLD PRINT (ML=8/1)
COLONEL C'S JET - Bandages were added last time out. Doesn't bode well for today's clash. Finished fourth in his most recent race with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. SEVENTH WONDER - Earned a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last time out in a Maiden Special race on Jul 14th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig. BOLD PRINT - This colt didn't show me enough down the stretch drive to warrant backing against stiffer competition. This colt registered a speed fig in his last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's event.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HONEST EXPECTATION - If a longshot has the top Power Rating, rest assured, he'll be getting my cash.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 HONEST EXPECTATION to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,7] with [2,4,7] with [2,3,4,5,7] with [2,3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $36
__________________
Saratoga
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Short Fuse Tara (10th race)
First Race
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1. Kimkanrun 2. Cool the Economy 3. Tzipi
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KIMKANRUN wouldn't have to improve too much off her 2-year-old figures to match up vs. low-level claiming fillies in her first start of the year; makes first start since steadying and chasing recent $97K stakes winner Akronism last fall, trainer bats .400 with long layoffs. COOL THE ECONOMY returns to scene of maiden win; drops 50% in price after running her best race since last summer. TZIPI was coming off a lifetime top effort at Belmont when bumped entering the strech of starter allowance at Monmouth Park; rebounded from a similarly dull effort in Florida earlier this year.
Second Race
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1. J Z Warrior 2. Jolie the Cat 3. Songsimage
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J Z WARRIOR moved three wide to challenge front-running According to Plan through very fast pace, and raced greenly in upper stretch; blinkers on may enable her to shake loose early in race where several others have received trouble lines at the break. JOLIE THE CAT was off slow, rallied late in good-figure debut; trainer saddled second-time starter Twisted Tale ($5.40) to win a 2-year-old maiden dash Thursday with S. Bridgmohan up. SONGSIMAGE was the priciest filly in the field at $325K as a yearling; lone entrant coming off a gate breeze, G. Gomez aboard all four Violette-trained 2YO winners here in '06.
Third Race
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1. Sophie's Salad 2. Frozen Prospect 3. Tuckahoe Road
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SOPHIE'S SALAD was bet to favoritism in return from extended layoff, made up considerable ground before being stalled in traffic; sharp try this course & distance last summer. FROZEN PROSPECT raced three wide on turn, was bumped approaching stretch and finished evenly behind TUCKAHOE ROAD and SLEWFOUNDMONEY in comeback; trainer has been exceptionally strong winning at 39% second time back. Tuckahoe Road shortens up to 5 1/2 furlongs after good finish to just miss in longer sprint; may get favorable setup if Slewfoundmoney is pressed early from both flanks by COME FLY AWAY and MS. SABBATICAL.
Fourth Race
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1. Madam Manguy 2. Early Hatch 3. Willi's Sweet Girl
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MADAM MANGUY chased throughout when claimed out of tougher field June 20 (winner returned to be beaten less than a length for second in overnight stake); Australian import went well for second in first U.S. route attempt two back. EARLY HATCH is rising in price after win for $25K at Delaware Park, but fits well based on figure from that win (runner-up returned to win a $40K allowance at Philadelphia Park); concern is she's had tough time putting two good races back to back. WILLI'S SWEET GIRL has been remarkably consistent on all types of footing on turf and dirt, with exception of 1 1/4-mile attempt vs. two stakes-placed European imports in very tough N1X filly-turf allowance; stretch threat no matter the weather.
Fifth Race
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1. Exonerated 2. Staid 3. Mine Or Who's
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EXONERATED dueled inside I Promise and lost the place late to STAID last month, and both were flattered when I Promise came back to run a huge race missing by a nose in the Schuylerville. Exonerated might find herself on a clear lead this time, and seems a likely candidate to improve for profitable second-out trainer. Staid, beaten at 11-10 second out, looms an obvious threat again, and has a pedigree that suggests rainy weather could be a plus. MINE OR WHO'S is by sire who set Spa's 5 1/2-furlong track record opening day '01, and dam has produced several winners, including stakes-placed Prado's Pride.
Sixth Race
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1. Banrock 2. Admiral Bird 3. French Transition
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BANROCK caught a tough situation when 23 lengths off speedball Retribution's pace in overnight stake on yielding turf 17 days ago - just his second start of the year; back at proper level, went well for second on this course last year behind eventual open stakes winner Gimme Credit. ADMIRAL BIRD, $250K 2YO purchase, showed high promise at Saratoga last year before running a best-ever figure on Polytrack; closed a lot of ground with belated rally in first try at this level for very live connections. FRENCH TRANSITION comes off a dull effort in the N.Y. Derby, could be advantaged off trainer change if switch to main track becomes necessary; eventful trip finshing close behind Admiral Bird in debut last summer.
Seventh Race
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1. Talented Treasure 2. Abby Morgan 3. City Spirit
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TALENTED TREASURE stumbled at start and raced very wide in debut, but showed better positional abilities rallying for second in her second attempt; retains hot rider who won four on Friday's card. ABBY MORGAN probably deserves benefit of the doubt for no-show performance on turf last out; projects as an early pace factor with BREEZING off her initial dirt start wearing blinkers. CITY SPIRIT has shown some speed in workouts, as has LIGHT TACTIC, and either or both newcomers could make presence felt in ordinary-looking field of maidens.
Eighth Race
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1. Classic Flirt 2. Lottie Zip 3. Seventeen Love
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CLASSIC FLIRT was a lengthy maiden winner vs. open company first out, but regressed a bit vs. Magical Mona (3 for 3 lifetime) after dueling through a faster-than-par pace in first try at this level; quick enough to get the jump on LOTTIE ZIP. The latter stumbled at the start, but quickly recovered to get clear through moderate fractions in maiden win first time out at 3; continues to train well for top outfit. SEVENTEEN LOVE may actually be the primary pace challenge to Classic Flirt, as she comes out of the same race as that rival; both should be helped by the turnback to six furlongs.
Ninth Race
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1. Street Sense 2. C P West 3. Tiz Wonderful
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By all accounts, STREET SENSE has trained exceptionally well for his first start since top-class performances in the Ky. Derby and Preakness; unlikely to be fully cranked for this Travers prep, but appears to hold a clear edge over these, with possible exception of TIZ WONDERFUL, who was sidelined by a tendon injury while training at Fair Grounds earlier this year, and hasn't raced in eight months. If Tiz Wonderful comes up short, the exacta key could be C P WEST, who put in a sharp wide move through a torrid pace in the Preakness and held on gamely late; freshened colt has been training locally since May for trainer who won '04 Travers with Birdstone off a 12-week layoff.
Tenth Race
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1. Short Fuse Tara 2. Fighting Speedy 3. Sweet Time
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SHORT FUSE TARA was running at a distance longer than her best, and was against the grain of an inside speed bias chasing Mt. Langfuhr when beaten at odds-on June 14; claimed from that race by resurrected trainer who visited winners' circle for first time in 25 years opening day with Again and Again ($35.40), also with Bejarano aboard. Just draw a line through the last race for FIGHTING SPEEDY, which came on yielding turf; very consistent dirt form this season includes a win at this level when claimed two back. SWEET TIME is a 21-time winner likely to impact the early pace, but has been outfinished repeatedly at low odds since back-to-back wins in shorter sprints at Gulfstream.
__________________
Detroit Tigers vs. LAA Angels
At 8:05 our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Los Angeles Angels. Don't look now, but all of a sudden the Tigers look a little vulnerable. After heading into, and heading out of, the all star game on a hot streak that saw them win ten of twelve games through July 19, the Tigers have now begun a severe slide having lost five of their last six games. But if there is anyone who can straighten out this ship, it is their veteran righthanded starter Jeremy Bonderman. Despite Bonderman's poor performance his last time out against the White Sox, the Tigers are still the team to beat in the AL Central Division, and Bonderman is still their ace. He should have no problem bouncing right back from the poor outing on July 24, as he has proven that he can pitch well against the Angels, shutting them down for eight innings back on May 24. The Tigers are now 12-2 in Bonderman's last fourteen games overall. Take Detroit. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Vegas Experts
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, July 29th, 1:35 P.M. EDT
Phillies have roughed up the Pirates' staff in the first two games of this series and should continue here vs. Ian Snell who has a 9.00 ERA his last three starts and the Bucs bullpen which has a road ERA of over 4.70. PITTSBURGH is also 31-19 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season while PHILADELPHIA is 40-26 OVER against right-handed starters this season.
Play on: Over
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, July 29th, 4:40 P.M. EST EST
Braves send Tim Hudson to the hill in the finale of their three- games set with the Diamondbacks in Arizona knowing he has cashed in 14 of his last 17 road team starts in July. In addition, Hudson is is in excellent current form and is 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA in his career team starts against Arizona. Back Hudson and the Braves here today.
Play on: Atlanta
Karl Garrett
Boston (-160) at TAMPA BAY
Matsuzaka is coming off of 7 shutout innings in a road win at Cleveland, and did blank Tampa Bay earlier this season going 8 shutout in a win back on July 3rd. In that July start, Scott Kazmir opposed and worked 6 innings of 3-run ball in taking the loss.
Kazmir's last start against Boston prior to the July effort was a complete game shutout last July.
7 of Matsuzaka's 11 road starts have played UNDER the total, and I think this one will as well.
Both hurlers are capable of putting up plenty of goose eggs in this one, so the G-Man says take the UNDER in this low-scoring contest!
3♦ UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Atlanta (-145) at ARIZONA
We believe a couple of streaks will be halted in today's game, as we look for Atlanta to snap their 4 game slide, and in the process stop Arizona's 8 game winning streak.
Tim Hudson is 10-5 for the season, and has gone 4-1 on the road with an ERA just over 3. Livan Hernandez counters, and is coming off a home win that moved him to 4-1 at Chase Field. Prior to that win, Hernandez had been rocked for 15 runs in just over 26 innings for an 0-1 mark in his 4 previous starts.
We believe Hernandez who sports a lifetime 4-13 mark against the Braves will struggle again today.
The Bravos have won Hudson's last 6 starts, and they are 15-7 overall when Hudson takes the hill.
We like those kinds of numbers, and we like Atlanta to snap their losing streak, and the Arizona winning streak.
Play on the Braves.
3♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco rallied in the ninth inning to win Saturday's game, 4-3. And we all know the Barry Bonds watch is on as he's one homer shy of matching Hank Aaron's total and two shy of becoming the all-time home run king.
Matt Morris (7-6, 4.16 ERA) is pitching for the Giants against Florida's Sergio Mitre (4-5, 3.26). Morris is 3-1 in the home park with a 3.53 ERA.
San Francisco has lost Morris' last five starts and last time out he gave up four run over six innings in a 7-5 loss to the Braves. He facd Florida last season and gave up three runs on six hits in six innings.
Mitre got drilled in his last start, giving up seven runs on seven hits over three innings of a 9-3 loss in Arizona.
Florida has lost six in a row while the Giants have now rattled off four straight wins. Let's play San Francisco in this one to keep both those streaks going and look for Barry to tie the record today.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Chris Jordan
Washington at N.Y. METS (-230)
Today, we're in the same series and we're taking the Mets on the Run Line.
It appears to me John Maine has regained his form after suffering two straight setbacks, as he was sharp against Pittsburgh last Tuesday, giving up just two runs from five hits.
With the win he moved to 11-5, and in doing so, struck out seven against just one walk. He sports a rather low ERA of 3.04, and his 2-1 mark in five career starts against the Nationals should provide him with confidence.
Maine should get plenty of run support in this one, as Billy Traber won’t be able to withstand the hitting attack of New York today, especially after the Nats won the nightcap last night with a rookie toeing the rubber in Shea Stadium. I look for the Mets to come out blazing on offense.
3♦ METS RUN LINE
Dave Cokin
Take "(959) MIL Brewers"
The Gallardo express makes a stop in St. Louis today as the Brewers and Cardinals wrap up their weekend set. Milwaukee's sensational rookie continues to actually exceed the hype and he's matched up with a pretty soft adversary in Kip Wells. Off the lengthy Saturday twinbill, I think having the starter far more likely to offer six quality innings becomes even more of a plus, so I'll back the Brewers and Gallardo in this contest.
Sunday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (1st) Temporary Saint, 7-2
(5th) Athena of Troy, 5-1
Calder Race Course (4th) Holiday Moment, 6-1
(5th) Running for Cash, 4-1
Canterbury Park (2nd) Smoke Magic, 4-1
(8th) Tote the Bench, 3-1
Charles Town (3rd) Inmywilddreams, 3-1
(8th) It's a Risque Girl, 5-1
Colonial Downs (3rd) Duke of Earl (Ire), 5-1
(4th) Willow Run, 3-1
Del Mar (6th) Wings of an Angel, 10-1
(7th) I Can See, 8-1
Delaware Park (1st) Fit for a Fight, 7-2
(7th) Blue Carnation, 4-1
Ellis Park (1st) La Panthere Rose, 3-1
(3rd) Sweetbriar Academy, 9-2
Emerald Downs (8th) Game Writer, 10-1
(10th) On the Hill, 3-1
Finger Lakes (5th) Ascot Dancer, 7-2
(6th) Lake Egri, 8-1
Fort Erie (5th) Northern Peak, 3-1
(6th) Stormy Kristine, 3-1
Hastings Park (4th) Principe's Passion, 9-2
(6th) Alpha Danjur, 3-1
Lone Star Park (4th) Crusader's Choice, 7-2
(8th) Starrville, 9-2
Louisiana Downs (4th) Eccentric Girl, 9-2
(7th) Gabby's Song, 7-2
Monmouth Park (2nd) Oh Deanne O, 4-1
(7th) Tiznow My Way, 6-1
Mountaineer (2nd) Pure Thunder, 3-1
(10th) Skylight Drive, 4-1
Northlands (3rd) Cosmic Warrior, 3-1
(6th) I Love Chocolate, 3-1
Philadelphia Park (2nd) Sir Sun, 3-1
(9th) Arabian Cat, 8-1
River Downs (6th) Needarunner, 5-1
(8th) Yankee Road, 5-1
Saratoga (6th) Banrock, 7-2
(7th) Talented Treasure, 3-1
Suffolk Downs (6th) Blazing Ballado, 4-1
(9th) Alabama Jubilee, 6-1
Thistledown (1st) Little Lady Sway, 7-2
(9th) Penny Wise, 3-1
Woodbine (2nd) Dragonmaster, 4-1
(9th) Holy Soul, 4-1
BING CROSBY H. (G1), 8TH-DMR, $300,000, 3YO/UP, 6F, 5:30 P.M. PDT, 7-29
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 NORTHERN SOLDIER KORINER BRIAN POTTS C L 114
2 BORDONARO SPAWR WILLIAM MIGLIORE R 120
3 GREG'S GOLD HOFMANS DAVID ESPINOZA V 117
4 CORAZONDELCAMPEON CANANI JULIO C PEDROZA M A 114
5 DECLAN'S MOON ELLIS RONALD W VALDIVIA J JR 115
6 IN SUMMATION CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE NAKATANI C S 114
7 GOTAGHOSTOFACHANCE STEIN ROGER M COURT J K 114
8 E Z WARRIOR BAFFERT BOB FLORES D R 111
9 BATTLE WON MITCHELL MIKE BAZE M C 115
Sunday's $300,000 Bing Crosby H. (G1) marks the return of the unbeaten E Z WARRIOR (Exploit), a very talented sophomore who figures to be showing the way once the gates open, but we'll give top honors to the late-running GREG'S GOLD (Lake George).
Trained by David Hofmans, Greg's Gold captured the 2005 Bing Crosby from off the pace, netting a career-best 106 BRIS Speed rating, before heading to the sidelines. He made his return to competition in February, taking an allowance, and then reappeared in April to record a solid second in the Potrero Grande Breeders' Cup H. (G2) before winning the Tiznow S. over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track. The six-year-old gelding didn't fire when finishing fourth in the Aristides Breeders' Cup S. (G3) at Churchill Downs last out, but we'll throw out that effort and look for a return to form (4-1-0 line in his previous six starts). Greg's Gold shows a pair of nice works over the Polytrack, and there's plenty of speed to set up his rally.
Grade 1 winner BORDONARO (Memo [Chi]) merits a lot of respect. He faltered last time in the True North H. (G2) at Belmont Park, but the classy six-year-old gelding has worked forwardly since then, including a recent six-furlong bullet in 1:11 4/5 over the Polytrack. He won't get carried wide from post 2 like he did in his last outing, and his Speed ratings are extremely strong (three consecutive 106s prior to the True North). Bordonaro appears very capable of striking under Richard Migliore.
E Z Warrior is obviously very talented, and he's the speed of the speed here. We love the way he's training over the Polytrack, and Bob Baffert will likely have him ready to fire. The sophomore gets a weight break from his elders, and E Z Warrior has a good chance to lead all the way.
BATTLE WON (Honour and Glory) is a top three candidate for Mike Mitchell, who is off to a fast start over the new track (11-3-3-1). The seven-year-old gelding doesn't win much (winless since 2005), but he gets part often. He'll likely appreciate the cutback to six furlongs off his third in the seven-furlong Triple Bend Invitational H. (G1), and we'll use Battle Won in the exotics.
NORTHERN SOLDIER (Yankee Victor) hasn't been a serious factor in his last three graded starts. He owns three wins from five starts at the distance and shows a couple of sharp drills over the new surface, so we can't dismiss him from exotics consideration. The stalker should enjoy a good trip.
DECLAN'S MOON (Malibu Moon) was diagnosed with a throat ailment and was finally able to snap a seven-race losing streak last time, winning a six-furlong allowance/optional claiming event. That was certainly an encouraging performance, but we're not ready to jump back on the bandwagon yet. The 2004 champion juvenile is certainly a good story, and we won't be disappointed if he continues to run well.
IN SUMMATION (Put It Back) earned his first win since 2005 when capturing the grassy Sneakbox S. at Monmouth Park last out, and this is an ambitious move by his connections. Turf horses tend to do well on the Polytrack, but we'll let In Summation beat us. GOTAGHOSTOFACHANCE (Silver Ghost) will be running late, but we doubt he's good enough to be a serious factor. CORAZONDELCAMPEON (Comic Strip) is very quick and will likely be contesting the pace here. We can't envision him sustaining his speed, though.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-GREG'S GOLD
2nd-BORDONARO
3rd-E Z WARRIOR
JIM DANDY S. (G2), 9TH-SAR, $500,000, 3YO, 1 1/8M, 5:20 P.M. EDT, 7-29
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SIGHTSEEING MCGAUGHEY CLAUDE III PRADO E S 121
2 FLASHSTORM LUKAS D WAYNE BRIDGMOHAN S X 115
3 STREET SENSE NAFZGER CARL A BOREL C H 123
4 COWTOWN CAT PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 121
5 TIZ WONDERFUL ASMUSSEN STEVEN M VELAZQUEZ J R 119
6 C P WEST ZITO NICHOLAS P VELASQUEZ CORNE 115
The return of Kentucky Derby (G1) hero STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) headlines the $500,000 Jim Dandy S. (G2) at Saratoga on Sunday. The Carl Nafzger trainee is unraced since a game runner-up performance in the Preakness S. (G1), but has trained well in the interim and will be tough to hold off as the likely overwhelming favorite. The dark bay drew in the middle of the six-horse field and will be once again piloted by Calvin Borel.
TIZ WONDERFUL (Tiznow), the most likely upsetter should the top one fail to fire, debuted over this surface last September and rolled to a decisive 12 1/2-length tally for conditioner Steve Asmussen. The burly ridgling concluded his freshman campaign with a triumph in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) and was sidelined at the beginning of the year with a tendon injury. He has been prepping for his return since early June and should be forwardly placed throughout, giving him first run on the chalk. John Velazquez has the assignment on the bay.
Peter Pan S. (G2) victor SIGHTSEEING (Pulpit) was last seen finishing a distant third in the Dwyer S. (G2), but we expect major improvement in here for the Shug McGaughey charge. The well-bred colt was a game second in the Wood Memorial S. (G1) three prior, and then contested a pair of one-turn events, which is not suitable to his running style. Although we're not certain if the dark bay is good enough to take home the top prize, we'd be surprised if he wasn't in the top three.
C P WEST (Came Home) competed in the final two legs of the Triple Crown, finishing a solid fourth in the Preakness prior to a distant fifth-place finish in the Belmont S. (G1) for Nick Zito. The Kentucky-bred broke his maiden at first asking over this oval and shows five nice works in Saratoga Springs, New York, in advance of this. A repeat of his Preakness effort could find him challenging for an award under Cornelio Velasquez.
FLASHSTORM (Storm Cat) has improved steadily for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and will, at the very least, be a pace presence in this spot. A strong second at 59-1 in the Iowa Derby last out, the front-running bay is bred to handle the trip and could hang around for a while if allowed to dawdle on the front. Shaun Bridgmohan will guide the colt.
Illinois Derby (G2) winner COWTOWN CAT (Distorted Humor) has thrown in a pair of clunkers following his signature win and we're not confident in the colt's chances with this group. The Todd Pletcher pupil will have the red-hot Garrett Gomez in the saddle and is capable of a placing with his best, but we'll look elsewhere on this occasion.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-STREET SENSE
2nd-TIZ WONDERFUL
3rd-SIGHTSEEING
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Delaware for Sunday July 29, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Delaware
Delaware - Race #3 - Post: 1:39pm
Rating:
Choice Plays:
#2 HONEST EXPECTATION (ML=6/1)
#4 APACHE ROAD (ML=3/1)
#7 RAVALO (ML=2/1)
HONEST EXPECTATION - Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a strong effort last time around the track within the last month or so. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. APACHE ROAD - When Motion gives Rose a leg up on any mount, you have to feel that with their winning percentage you have decidedly more than a fighting chance. It looks like Rose had to learn all about this colt on June 27th when riding him for the initial time. Back atop again today. I like this colt. Has the highest earnings per race in here. RAVALO - I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this colt's PPs. Almost always in the money. After the contest aboard this horse on July 8th, the jockey is going to be acquainted with the colt much better. This campaigner coming off a strong contest in the last month is a serious competitor in my opinion.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 COLONEL C'S JET (ML=4/1), #5 SEVENTH WONDER (ML=8/1), #1 BOLD PRINT (ML=8/1)
COLONEL C'S JET - Bandages were added last time out. Doesn't bode well for today's clash. Finished fourth in his most recent race with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. SEVENTH WONDER - Earned a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last time out in a Maiden Special race on Jul 14th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig. BOLD PRINT - This colt didn't show me enough down the stretch drive to warrant backing against stiffer competition. This colt registered a speed fig in his last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's event.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HONEST EXPECTATION - If a longshot has the top Power Rating, rest assured, he'll be getting my cash.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 HONEST EXPECTATION to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,7] with [2,4,7] with [2,3,4,5,7] with [2,3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $36
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Saratoga
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Short Fuse Tara (10th race)
First Race
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1. Kimkanrun 2. Cool the Economy 3. Tzipi
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KIMKANRUN wouldn't have to improve too much off her 2-year-old figures to match up vs. low-level claiming fillies in her first start of the year; makes first start since steadying and chasing recent $97K stakes winner Akronism last fall, trainer bats .400 with long layoffs. COOL THE ECONOMY returns to scene of maiden win; drops 50% in price after running her best race since last summer. TZIPI was coming off a lifetime top effort at Belmont when bumped entering the strech of starter allowance at Monmouth Park; rebounded from a similarly dull effort in Florida earlier this year.
Second Race
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1. J Z Warrior 2. Jolie the Cat 3. Songsimage
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J Z WARRIOR moved three wide to challenge front-running According to Plan through very fast pace, and raced greenly in upper stretch; blinkers on may enable her to shake loose early in race where several others have received trouble lines at the break. JOLIE THE CAT was off slow, rallied late in good-figure debut; trainer saddled second-time starter Twisted Tale ($5.40) to win a 2-year-old maiden dash Thursday with S. Bridgmohan up. SONGSIMAGE was the priciest filly in the field at $325K as a yearling; lone entrant coming off a gate breeze, G. Gomez aboard all four Violette-trained 2YO winners here in '06.
Third Race
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1. Sophie's Salad 2. Frozen Prospect 3. Tuckahoe Road
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SOPHIE'S SALAD was bet to favoritism in return from extended layoff, made up considerable ground before being stalled in traffic; sharp try this course & distance last summer. FROZEN PROSPECT raced three wide on turn, was bumped approaching stretch and finished evenly behind TUCKAHOE ROAD and SLEWFOUNDMONEY in comeback; trainer has been exceptionally strong winning at 39% second time back. Tuckahoe Road shortens up to 5 1/2 furlongs after good finish to just miss in longer sprint; may get favorable setup if Slewfoundmoney is pressed early from both flanks by COME FLY AWAY and MS. SABBATICAL.
Fourth Race
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1. Madam Manguy 2. Early Hatch 3. Willi's Sweet Girl
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MADAM MANGUY chased throughout when claimed out of tougher field June 20 (winner returned to be beaten less than a length for second in overnight stake); Australian import went well for second in first U.S. route attempt two back. EARLY HATCH is rising in price after win for $25K at Delaware Park, but fits well based on figure from that win (runner-up returned to win a $40K allowance at Philadelphia Park); concern is she's had tough time putting two good races back to back. WILLI'S SWEET GIRL has been remarkably consistent on all types of footing on turf and dirt, with exception of 1 1/4-mile attempt vs. two stakes-placed European imports in very tough N1X filly-turf allowance; stretch threat no matter the weather.
Fifth Race
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1. Exonerated 2. Staid 3. Mine Or Who's
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EXONERATED dueled inside I Promise and lost the place late to STAID last month, and both were flattered when I Promise came back to run a huge race missing by a nose in the Schuylerville. Exonerated might find herself on a clear lead this time, and seems a likely candidate to improve for profitable second-out trainer. Staid, beaten at 11-10 second out, looms an obvious threat again, and has a pedigree that suggests rainy weather could be a plus. MINE OR WHO'S is by sire who set Spa's 5 1/2-furlong track record opening day '01, and dam has produced several winners, including stakes-placed Prado's Pride.
Sixth Race
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1. Banrock 2. Admiral Bird 3. French Transition
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BANROCK caught a tough situation when 23 lengths off speedball Retribution's pace in overnight stake on yielding turf 17 days ago - just his second start of the year; back at proper level, went well for second on this course last year behind eventual open stakes winner Gimme Credit. ADMIRAL BIRD, $250K 2YO purchase, showed high promise at Saratoga last year before running a best-ever figure on Polytrack; closed a lot of ground with belated rally in first try at this level for very live connections. FRENCH TRANSITION comes off a dull effort in the N.Y. Derby, could be advantaged off trainer change if switch to main track becomes necessary; eventful trip finshing close behind Admiral Bird in debut last summer.
Seventh Race
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1. Talented Treasure 2. Abby Morgan 3. City Spirit
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TALENTED TREASURE stumbled at start and raced very wide in debut, but showed better positional abilities rallying for second in her second attempt; retains hot rider who won four on Friday's card. ABBY MORGAN probably deserves benefit of the doubt for no-show performance on turf last out; projects as an early pace factor with BREEZING off her initial dirt start wearing blinkers. CITY SPIRIT has shown some speed in workouts, as has LIGHT TACTIC, and either or both newcomers could make presence felt in ordinary-looking field of maidens.
Eighth Race
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1. Classic Flirt 2. Lottie Zip 3. Seventeen Love
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CLASSIC FLIRT was a lengthy maiden winner vs. open company first out, but regressed a bit vs. Magical Mona (3 for 3 lifetime) after dueling through a faster-than-par pace in first try at this level; quick enough to get the jump on LOTTIE ZIP. The latter stumbled at the start, but quickly recovered to get clear through moderate fractions in maiden win first time out at 3; continues to train well for top outfit. SEVENTEEN LOVE may actually be the primary pace challenge to Classic Flirt, as she comes out of the same race as that rival; both should be helped by the turnback to six furlongs.
Ninth Race
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1. Street Sense 2. C P West 3. Tiz Wonderful
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By all accounts, STREET SENSE has trained exceptionally well for his first start since top-class performances in the Ky. Derby and Preakness; unlikely to be fully cranked for this Travers prep, but appears to hold a clear edge over these, with possible exception of TIZ WONDERFUL, who was sidelined by a tendon injury while training at Fair Grounds earlier this year, and hasn't raced in eight months. If Tiz Wonderful comes up short, the exacta key could be C P WEST, who put in a sharp wide move through a torrid pace in the Preakness and held on gamely late; freshened colt has been training locally since May for trainer who won '04 Travers with Birdstone off a 12-week layoff.
Tenth Race
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1. Short Fuse Tara 2. Fighting Speedy 3. Sweet Time
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SHORT FUSE TARA was running at a distance longer than her best, and was against the grain of an inside speed bias chasing Mt. Langfuhr when beaten at odds-on June 14; claimed from that race by resurrected trainer who visited winners' circle for first time in 25 years opening day with Again and Again ($35.40), also with Bejarano aboard. Just draw a line through the last race for FIGHTING SPEEDY, which came on yielding turf; very consistent dirt form this season includes a win at this level when claimed two back. SWEET TIME is a 21-time winner likely to impact the early pace, but has been outfinished repeatedly at low odds since back-to-back wins in shorter sprints at Gulfstream.
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