Detroit-LA Angels 'OVER' 9.5 has to be one of the top plays for Sunday Night!

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Handicapping Machine
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:youmad:


I think we see an explosion of runs in this game.


- The OVER is 7-0 in all seven meetings this season, how dare you fade that?

- The OVER is not a public favored play tonight (always good news on Sunday Night baseball). Wagerliners are currently a direct 50-50 split on the OVER and the UNDER.

- I don't care about Bonderman, I don't care about Moseley. The Detroit bullpen has an ERA of 10.05 in the last five games and the Angels bullpen has an ERA of 5.31 in the last five games.

- Angels have an OBP of .465 against righties in the last five games, Tigers have an OBP of .394 against righties in the last five games.

- Los Angeles is 15-for-27 with runners in scoring position in this series.

- Despite pitching well this year, Bonderman is getting a whopping 6.2 runs of run support per start...so you can count on the Tigers showing up.

- The Angels don't hit many HR's but Bonderman has allowed 12 HR's on the road and only 3 at home.

- Runners are 6 for 6 on base steals against Bonderman on the road and the Angels have quite a few guys who can steal bags.

- Tigers batting .289 versus righties on the road, Angels batting .314 versus righties at home.

- In Detroit's last 29 games versus AL West opponents, the OVER has hit or pushed 22 times.

- The OVER is 5-0-1 in Bonderman's last six starts versus the AL West.


I don't see either team being held to less than 5 runs each so the place is obvious for me. I know trends tend to be bucked but these two teams don't know how to avoid shootouts and both bullpens are completely worn out. Expect some big time runs again...bank on it.



:thumbsup:
 

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You also have to consider that Dustin Moseley has made only four career starts:


Career Start #1: Moseley allowed 10 hits, 4 ER's in five innings against the Indians at home. 15 runs scored in that game.

Career Start #2: Moseley was trashed for 10 hits, 7 ER's against the light hitting Oakland A's...again at home. 21 runs scored in that game.

Career STart #3: Moseley pitched well at home against Oakland allowing only one run but the A's were playing only their fifth game of the year and at that point averaging only 4.5 runs per game.

Career Start #4: Moseley looked good at the Jake going six inning and allowing only one run. However, the Indians were averaged only 3.2 runs per game in a span of nine games. Things have changed.


I personally think Moseley allows at least 5+ runs tonight.
 

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upon further review.....

great stuff and I initially like UNDER 10 -130, but I now belive the best play for is the OVER 9 -130 at 5Dimes. Thanks for posting great info and best of luck to you.:toast:
 

Edge Player
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For those of you looking at tonite's game I would urge you to look at the line move pivot with the league set to AL- you will see when the OL is 10 and you have a LM of -.5 you have 21o-7u

I got this info from oilbarrel in pops69 season long thread :103631605
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im thinking it will be over....im gonna wait a lil longer before i bet tho
 
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Going way over 9.5 tonight. This clown Moseley on the hill for the Angels is a joke, the Tigers will light him up for at least 7 runs and the way the Tigers have been playing woulnd be surprised to see the Angels score at least 5. I taking the over for a dime.
 

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Thanks for chiming in guys. Almost gametime and almost time to let the run fest start.

Also found some interesting stuff. The wind in the ballpark is currently blowing at 11 MPH OUT TO CENTER FIELD.

When the wind blows between 10-20 MPH in Angel Stadium this year (any directions), an average of 11.22 runs per game are scored and teams are hitting a combined .285.

Im not a big fan of wind direction angles but just thought it was a fun tidbit. Also wanted to add that Moseley has allowed 12 ER's in 9.0 innings of work in the month of July for an ERA of 12.00. I don't know about you guys but the Tigers offense could explode and cover this total themselves and have their bullpen let the Angels score 10 of their own.

Enjoy the game!
 

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Also, the real problem for Bonderman is that over the years of his career, he has struggled a lot more against batters from the left side.


Bonderman vs. left side batters (career)

WHIP = 1.47
BATTING AVG. = .277



Bonderman vs. right side batters (career)

WHIP = 1.19
BATTING AVG. = .247


In tonight's lineup, the Angels have 6 of 9 batters who can hit from the left side.

Chone Figgins
Garrett Anderson
Casey Kotchman
Gary Matthews Jr.
Maicer Izturis
Reggie Willits


This is also Bonderman's fourth straight road start...
 

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Thanks for chiming in guys. Almost gametime and almost time to let the run fest start.

Also found some interesting stuff. The wind in the ballpark is currently blowing at 11 MPH OUT TO CENTER FIELD.

When the wind blows between 10-20 MPH in Angel Stadium this year (any directions), an average of 11.22 runs per game are scored and teams are hitting a combined .285.

Im not a big fan of wind direction angles but just thought it was a fun tidbit. Also wanted to add that Moseley has allowed 12 ER's in 9.0 innings of work in the month of July for an ERA of 12.00. I don't know about you guys but the Tigers offense could explode and cover this total themselves and have their bullpen let the Angels score 10 of their own.

Enjoy the game!
wow your throwing everything out there aint ya flav...

i found this one...when there are more women sitting in even number seats throughout the stadium(which has happened 14X this year) total runs avg for game is 3.25.:thumbsup: :lol:
 

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Good luck tonite boys, hopefully the bats put on a show for ESPN :thumbsup:
 

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