I will be takiing the Phillies tonight. Im going to wait and see how nice of a price I can get on their run line this afternoon after all the myopic Cubs fans hit the window. Im sure the 3 people that actually take the time to read this drawn out analysis will probably think I am out of my mind, but after watching the Cubs, as a fan, I think Ive found the perfect match-up in this game.
Reasons why I am taking the Phils tonight:
1) Over-value vs. Under-value: While the Cubs may appear at the surface as a team that is on fire, the truth is actually a little different. The Cubs have made up a bunch of ground on the Brewers, but a lot of that doesnt even have to do with the Cubs. The Brewers are in complete shambles right now needing the Cubs to only win 4 of their last 8 (Against two bad teams) to gain all of this ground. However, the Phils are actually on a roll at this time. The loss of Utley has not hurt them yet, and their bats have really continued to sizzle. While the public has preceived that the Cubs are the hotter team, that really isnt the case.
2) Phillies love Chicago: The Phillies have always played extremely well in Chicago. They have won 11 of the last 15 games they have played at Wrigley. For some reason they always tend to get timely hitting and good pitching in Chicago.
3) Hamels success forumla: For Cole Hamels to be succesful, he needs to strike-out batters and not walk many. This match-up seems ideal for him as the Cubs are the second worst team in the Nationa League in drawing walks (313). In his first start of the year against the Cubs, Hamels only gave up 2 ERs which both came on solo HRs. The wind is expected to be blowing in tonight, which will only make him tougher for the Cubs to hit. Hamels is known for his great change-up, sinking fastball, and large +-curveball. For a team that has not seen a left-hander in 11 games, Hamels should be at a major advantage against the Cubs tonight. Talk about jumping right back into the fire.
4) Teddy Lilly = Fools Gold? Everyone is loving Ted Lilly lately, and I just cant convince myself yet. Instead of remembering his great recent performances against the offensive jugernauts...
**BoxingGuy rolls eyes**
...in his last 5 match-ups against the Cardinals, Giants, Astros, Pirates and Nationals, I remember him struggling against Colorado, Milwaukee, and Texas. The guy hasnt pitched against anyone in months, and I think he will find himself in a different sort of situation tonight.
5) Phillies torching lefties: While there is little stock in the Cubs recent performance against left-handers (Only bullpen guys), the Phillies are actually very comfortable looking at a lefty. 4 of the last 10 starts against the Phils have come by a left-hander. Not only have they seen a bunch of lefties, but they are absolutly lighting them up. In their last 10 games the Phillies are batting .341 against left-handed pitching.
6) Bullpens: Yea, yea, yea. I know people are going to want to talk about Mesa and Alfonseca down in the pen. How terrible they are and how the Phillies pen is terrible. However, that couldnt be further than the actual case. In their last 10 games, the Phillies pen has posted a 2.01 ERA and has even received some help in the return of Flash and Myers. The Cubs bullpen hasnt ben exactly sparkling lately. We saw a couple days ago that Dempster is still a long way away. Howry and Marmol continue to get players out, but it is quite evident that both of them are becoming tired. I still dont trust anyone of those Cubs lefties out of the pen against ANYONE, so I really dont see this as much of problem.
7) Cubs against lefties: While numbers may be a bit confusing with the Cubs results lately against lefties, the point is that they havent hit them well. The Cubs are only hitting .250 this year against lefties, and it even got so bad that Pinella tried moving Soriano down in the order. This team hasnt hit lefties well in years, and the last outing against one left them looking miserable at the plate. Zito baffled them with and excellent change-up and good curveball. Sound like anyone?
8) Because I just got a feeling.
Thanks for taking to time to read this, and I will post my play later on as the lines move a little bit.
:aktion033
Reasons why I am taking the Phils tonight:
1) Over-value vs. Under-value: While the Cubs may appear at the surface as a team that is on fire, the truth is actually a little different. The Cubs have made up a bunch of ground on the Brewers, but a lot of that doesnt even have to do with the Cubs. The Brewers are in complete shambles right now needing the Cubs to only win 4 of their last 8 (Against two bad teams) to gain all of this ground. However, the Phils are actually on a roll at this time. The loss of Utley has not hurt them yet, and their bats have really continued to sizzle. While the public has preceived that the Cubs are the hotter team, that really isnt the case.
2) Phillies love Chicago: The Phillies have always played extremely well in Chicago. They have won 11 of the last 15 games they have played at Wrigley. For some reason they always tend to get timely hitting and good pitching in Chicago.
3) Hamels success forumla: For Cole Hamels to be succesful, he needs to strike-out batters and not walk many. This match-up seems ideal for him as the Cubs are the second worst team in the Nationa League in drawing walks (313). In his first start of the year against the Cubs, Hamels only gave up 2 ERs which both came on solo HRs. The wind is expected to be blowing in tonight, which will only make him tougher for the Cubs to hit. Hamels is known for his great change-up, sinking fastball, and large +-curveball. For a team that has not seen a left-hander in 11 games, Hamels should be at a major advantage against the Cubs tonight. Talk about jumping right back into the fire.
4) Teddy Lilly = Fools Gold? Everyone is loving Ted Lilly lately, and I just cant convince myself yet. Instead of remembering his great recent performances against the offensive jugernauts...
**BoxingGuy rolls eyes**
...in his last 5 match-ups against the Cardinals, Giants, Astros, Pirates and Nationals, I remember him struggling against Colorado, Milwaukee, and Texas. The guy hasnt pitched against anyone in months, and I think he will find himself in a different sort of situation tonight.
5) Phillies torching lefties: While there is little stock in the Cubs recent performance against left-handers (Only bullpen guys), the Phillies are actually very comfortable looking at a lefty. 4 of the last 10 starts against the Phils have come by a left-hander. Not only have they seen a bunch of lefties, but they are absolutly lighting them up. In their last 10 games the Phillies are batting .341 against left-handed pitching.
6) Bullpens: Yea, yea, yea. I know people are going to want to talk about Mesa and Alfonseca down in the pen. How terrible they are and how the Phillies pen is terrible. However, that couldnt be further than the actual case. In their last 10 games, the Phillies pen has posted a 2.01 ERA and has even received some help in the return of Flash and Myers. The Cubs bullpen hasnt ben exactly sparkling lately. We saw a couple days ago that Dempster is still a long way away. Howry and Marmol continue to get players out, but it is quite evident that both of them are becoming tired. I still dont trust anyone of those Cubs lefties out of the pen against ANYONE, so I really dont see this as much of problem.
7) Cubs against lefties: While numbers may be a bit confusing with the Cubs results lately against lefties, the point is that they havent hit them well. The Cubs are only hitting .250 this year against lefties, and it even got so bad that Pinella tried moving Soriano down in the order. This team hasnt hit lefties well in years, and the last outing against one left them looking miserable at the plate. Zito baffled them with and excellent change-up and good curveball. Sound like anyone?
8) Because I just got a feeling.
Thanks for taking to time to read this, and I will post my play later on as the lines move a little bit.
:aktion033
Lets get a big winner tonight, knowthegame!!!
Cubs Line-up: On yesterday broadcast, Bob and Len told us that Pinella had let them know of his intention to get his right-handed hitters in the line-up to face Hamels. I would imagine that we will see something that looks similar to below.
Soriano - LF
Theriot - SS
Lee - 1B
Ramirez - 3B
De Rosa - 2B
Pagan - CF
Murton - RF
Kendall - C
I do know know where to find the stats (I would appreciate it if someone could help me), but yesterday during the game they showed how well those top 4 had hit inside of the Central division. Id assume those numbers drop dramatically for when tehy are playing an opponent outside the Central.
One more thing....
Cubs vs. NL East ~ 12-14
Phillies vs. NL Central ~ 19-9
:aktion033
Cubs Line-up: On yesterday broadcast, Bob and Len told us that Pinella had let them know of his intention to get his right-handed hitters in the line-up to face Hamels. I would imagine that we will see something that looks similar to below.
Soriano - LF
Theriot - SS
Lee - 1B
Ramirez - 3B
De Rosa - 2B
Pagan - CF
Murton - RF
Kendall - C
I do know know where to find the stats (I would appreciate it if someone could help me), but yesterday during the game they showed how well those top 4 had hit inside of the Central division. Id assume those numbers drop dramatically for when tehy are playing an opponent outside the Central.
One more thing....
Cubs vs. NL East ~ 12-14
Phillies vs. NL Central ~ 19-9
:aktion033
I would also like to make it stated that the Cubs have lost 4 of their last 5 against left-handed starting pitching. Well those starters must have been elite level guys right? Certainly of comparable skills to Hamels. Lets take a peak....
Barry Zito (7-10 5.28 ERA)
Result: 7 IPs. 1 ER. 8 Ks
Wandy Rodriguez (7-9 4.28 ERA)
Result: 3.1 IP. 7 ER. 2 Ks
Shane Youman (2-3 4.66 ERA)
Result: 6 IP. 2 ER. 1 K
Paul Maholm (7-12 4.57 ERA)
Result: 7 IP. 4 ER. 5 Ks
Matt Chico (4-6 4.78 ERA)
Result: 7 IP. 0 ER. Ks
Thats 1-4 against that level competition in their last 5 times out. Ill take my chances on the better Hamels and the hot bats in Philly. Lilly will be chilly in Chicago tonight.
Barry Zito (7-10 5.28 ERA)
Result: 7 IPs. 1 ER. 8 Ks
Wandy Rodriguez (7-9 4.28 ERA)
Result: 3.1 IP. 7 ER. 2 Ks
Shane Youman (2-3 4.66 ERA)
Result: 6 IP. 2 ER. 1 K
Paul Maholm (7-12 4.57 ERA)
Result: 7 IP. 4 ER. 5 Ks
Matt Chico (4-6 4.78 ERA)
Result: 7 IP. 0 ER. Ks
Thats 1-4 against that level competition in their last 5 times out. Ill take my chances on the better Hamels and the hot bats in Philly. Lilly will be chilly in Chicago tonight.
I hope so too Swamee. This line is all messed up right now, because I think Vegas anticpates huge action from the sharps on the Phillies right before the game starts. I dont think I am the only person who is waiting for Cubs fans to inflate this line. I dont see how it can make sense that thegreek is offer the following lines.
Cubs -116
Phillies -104
Cubs -1.5 +180
Phillies -1.5 +170
:monsters-
It looks to me like Vegas is doing everything they can to get us off of the Phillies tonight. I dont think the run line is going to get any better price so I decided to lock mine in now.
Phillies -1.5 +170 ($150)
:aktion033
Cubs -116
Phillies -104
Cubs -1.5 +180
Phillies -1.5 +170
:monsters-
It looks to me like Vegas is doing everything they can to get us off of the Phillies tonight. I dont think the run line is going to get any better price so I decided to lock mine in now.
Phillies -1.5 +170 ($150)
:aktion033
The more we dig, the more its looking better and better for the Phils tonight.
Hamels has only allowed 3 runs in his last 17 IP on the road. Those were starts that included going to San Diego, Houston, and St. Louis. In Hamels only poor start on the road really he got in trouble to the Cleveland hitters because he couldnt throw strikes. Of his 77 pitches, only 48 of them were strikes. That means he was only throwing a strike 62% of the time. Any pitcher would get in trouble throwing the ball that way. In his last 3 starts though Hamels has had the following strike percentages:
July 14th vs. St Louis ~ 64%
July 19th @ San Diego ~ 68.5%
July 25th vs. Washington ~ 73.8%
Weather: Hamels is a pitcher that gives up pretty much one ground ball fro ever fly ball. When the wind blows in at Wrigley, as it should tonight, there really isnt many ballparks that it is harder to hit it out of. Taking into consideration that both Cubs runs they got off him earlier this year were on HRs, and we have the making for a nice outing for the young man.
Hamels has only allowed 3 runs in his last 17 IP on the road. Those were starts that included going to San Diego, Houston, and St. Louis. In Hamels only poor start on the road really he got in trouble to the Cleveland hitters because he couldnt throw strikes. Of his 77 pitches, only 48 of them were strikes. That means he was only throwing a strike 62% of the time. Any pitcher would get in trouble throwing the ball that way. In his last 3 starts though Hamels has had the following strike percentages:
July 14th vs. St Louis ~ 64%
July 19th @ San Diego ~ 68.5%
July 25th vs. Washington ~ 73.8%
Weather: Hamels is a pitcher that gives up pretty much one ground ball fro ever fly ball. When the wind blows in at Wrigley, as it should tonight, there really isnt many ballparks that it is harder to hit it out of. Taking into consideration that both Cubs runs they got off him earlier this year were on HRs, and we have the making for a nice outing for the young man.
Great Write Up & Analysis you've got there...On the Phils myself as they seem to be hitting a bit of a stride now and they are coming in a bit under the radar. The line as fishy. The Cubs are the obvious favourite, and yet Chris hasn't moved off the opening -115 and Skybook & Global, two of the more sharper books both moved the line down...and the Philly RL opened up at -230 and is now sitting -230 at several books...pretty steep for a dog thats supposed to loose at home to the hottest team in baseball....meanwhile the Cubs with their 2nd Ace on the mound is getting +180 on the RL....Doesn't Wash...
