Chicago Cubs ML -115 has to be one of the top sides tonight!

MistaFlava · Jul 30, 2007

I just don't see why they wouldn't win this game:

- Great price because both teams are pretty damn hot right now.

- Ted Lilly vs. Cole Hamels is a great matchup of left handed pitchers but Lilly has been the better overall lefty this season.

- In their last three starts, Cole Hamels is getting 5.7 runs of runs support while Ted Lilly is getting 8.3 runs of run support per game.

- If you're going to fade Cole Hamels, do it when he's on the road. His career winning percentage at home is 68.8% while his career winning percentage on the road is only 52.9%

- Chicago is 16-8 in the month of July and they can tie the Milwaukee Brewers for the division lead with a win tonight.

- Ted Lilly is 7-0 in eight starts since June 15, has won his last six outings, and has a 1.83 ERA in five starts this month (from yahoo sports).

- Wrigley Field is the site of Cole Hamels worst major league start where he allowed nine runs, nine hits in two innings of work.

- Hamels has allowed only 3 ER's in his last two starts but may carry a bit too much value seeing how he faced Washington (2nd last in MLB batting average) and San Diego (3rd last in MLB batting average).

- Despite being the hottest team in baseball, the Phillies are 1-4 the last five games Cole Hamels has started as a road underdog.

- Chicago is one of the best GAME 1 teams in baseball holding a 13-3 record in their last 16 GAME 1 situations.

- Cubs are 6-0 in Lilly's last six starts.

- Phillies bullpen has been lights out as of late but are due for a letdown on the road where they have an ERA of 4.41, a WHIP of 1.66 (ouch) and opponents are hitting .285 against them.

- Jimmy Rollins is the hottest Phillies hitter right now. He is batting .381 (16-for-42) with four triples and two homers during a nine-game hitting streak (yahoosports). However, Rollins hates Wrigley Field where in 93 career AB's he is batting .239 with 2 HR's, 10 RBI's and 19 strikeouts.

I think the Cubs are too good at home and have been too good in the first game of most series the last few weeks. Ted Lilly looks unbeatable right now and the only reason we are getting such good odds is because Cole Hamels is on the other side of the mount but don't forget his career winning percentage on the road...it's almost below .500.

:aktion033

honkee · Jul 30, 2007

Cubs +over
im going to teh game tonight too, should be a one sided affair tonight

honkee · Jul 30, 2007

This is the best price were gonna see on the cubs at home for awhile
Even if you like the phillies tonight, the sheer value of hill at home has to make this a must play

knowthegame · Jul 30, 2007

I'm on the Phillies

today. Cubs really struggle vs lefties and I got me a feeling bout them Phillies today. Philly ALWAYS play really well at Wrigley 2.........:aktion033

Good Luck with ALL yur OTHER plays......:thumbsup:

MistaFlava · Jul 30, 2007

knowthegame said:
today. Cubs really struggle vs lefties and I got me a feeling bout them Phillies today. Philly ALWAYS play really well at Wrigley 2.........:aktion033

Good Luck with ALL yur OTHER plays......:thumbsup:

Thanks. You do have an advantage that the Phillies ROI at Wrigley the last three seasons is 43.1% while the Cubs is -45.7% but I think this is the one game Chicago wins in this series.

As for the Cubs hitting lefties, the have won 3 of their last 4 at home against a left handed starter beating David Wells, Jeff Francis and Wandy Rodriguez. Also:

Phillies vs. LHP (AWAY)

BA = .270
OBP = .354
Strikeouts = 2.6

Record: 8-12 on the road vs. LHP

Cubs vs. LHP (HOME)

BA = .267
OBP = .326
Strikeouts = 1.3

Record: 5-5 at home vs. LHP

The stats are about the same for both teams, the Phillies don't dominate against lefties on the road and although they have a small edge in numbers, the Cubs are red hot at home right now and for the first time since Utley's injury, I think the Phillies start to miss him. GL

YoungProdigy · Jul 30, 2007

good info

roach23 · Jul 30, 2007

MistaFlava said:
- Ted Lilly vs. Cole Hamels is a great matchup of left handed pitchers but Lilly has been the better overall lefty this season.

I stopped reading here when I realized you were joking around.

honkee · Jul 30, 2007

You can argue both sides all day, which is why the line looks the way it does.

Just bet what ya feel and im doin my home team+ over

Dubpoet · Jul 30, 2007

Might want to look at the next few games. This one the Phillies will want more. Our pitching the rest of the series means this one game is huge for us Phillies.

MistaFlava · Jul 30, 2007

roach23 said:
I stopped reading here when I realized you were joking around.

First of all, earned new respect for you for sending those hockey cards to wmu's kid. Big time props on the gesture, really nice of you.

Secondly...I know you're from Philly and you love Cole Hamels but lets take a look at their numbers:

W-L

Cole Hamel: 11-5
Ted Lilly: 11-4

ERA

Cole Hamel: 3.63
Ted Lilly: 3.46

WHIP

Cole Hamel: 1.18
Ted Lilly: 1.09

HR's allowed

Cole Hamel: 22 HR's allowed in 21 starts
Ted Lilly: 14 HR's allowed in 21 starts

Opponent OBP%

Cole Hamel: .296
Ted Lilly: .278

SB% against

Cole Hamel: 84.6% (11 stolen bases on 13 tries)
Ted Lilly: 66.7% (6 stolen bases on 9 tries)

Walks per start

Cole Hamel: 1.57
Ted Lilly: 1.53

Lilly leads in almost every single one of these categories so I don't know how you can say it's a joke. You need to look past the love you have for your own team and recognize what Lilly has done this season. The stats just don't lie and on top of that, Hamels is getting more run support per start this season. Cole Hamels is 9-8 career on the road and much better at home...if you're ever gonna fade him, the road is the place to do it.

roach23 · Jul 30, 2007

Flava...what divisions to the respective pitchers play in? What ball parks?

BoxingGuy · Jul 30, 2007

Stop it Roach!!! Lilly has beaten powers liek the Giants, Astros, Washington, and Pittsburgh recently. That cat is rolling.

MistaFlava · Jul 30, 2007

roach23 said:
Flava...what divisions to the respective pitchers play in? What ball parks?

I agree with you on Hamels pitching in a much tougher park but that doesn't explain why he then struggles more on the road than he does at home. Shouldn't it be the other way around?

So you're really convinced the Phils take this one tonight?

roach23 · Jul 30, 2007

I'm not convinced the Phils take it. But saying Lilly is a better pitcher than Hamels is retarded. Lilly pitches in a fluff division. The Phils are 19-9 vs the Central.

I don't care to look it up but off the top of my head...besides getting lit up by the Indians...Hamels hasn't been that bad on the road.

MistaFlava · Jul 30, 2007

BoxingGuy said:
Stop it Roach!!! Lilly has beaten powers liek the Giants, Astros, Washington, and Pittsburgh recently. That cat is rolling.

That argument is true but not really valid now is it? Sure Lilly has beaten some lightweights but who the hell has Cole Hamels beat in his last five wins?

Cole Hamels (last 5 wins)

vs. St. Louis (14th in MLB batting average)
vs. Houston (21st in MLB batting average)
vs. White Sox (30th in MLB batting average, dead last)
vs. San Francisco (25th in MLB batting average)
vs. Atlanta (8th in MLB batting average)

Cubs are ranked #11 in MLB batting average which is better than 4 of 5 of Cole Hamels last five wins.

Dubpoet · Jul 30, 2007

How about the Speed game. Does Lilly hold runners on first. Cubbs Catcher throw anyone out.

Bourne
Victorino
Rollins
123

Could steal a run or two!

BoxingGuy · Jul 30, 2007

Well Hamels beat an Astros team on the road in which their record is 28-25 versus a road record of 18-34 that Lilly beat. Houston is no slouch at home. That was no easy victory.

zeketaylor · Jul 30, 2007

view the recent info and wieght it accordingly over the "entire season info"

utley out (lefty) against left handed lilly will be replaced by iguchi (righty) id rather have a healthy utley.....but consider ruiz, burrell, rowand will both play in this game and burrell been red hot, and victorino swithc hits, and rollins switch hits as well......rollins might not like lilly, or wrigley...but consider

Jimmy Rollins had his second consecutive three-hit game and scored twice in the series finale. The shortstop, who is batting third in the Philadelphia lineup while All-Star second baseman Chase Utley is out with a broken hand, is batting .381 (16-for-42) with four triples and two homers during a nine-game hitting streak.

"It doesn't matter where I hit in the lineup, it never has," Rollins said. "We can't let injuries kill our spirit. We have to keep fighting."

id sooner take what the guy is doing over the last week-month of play than what he has done over his career, 4 years ago, the guy was a singles hitter...now hes a complete player who hits extra base hits, and gets on base and leads the league in runs....

cubs could win.....phils could too....just saying arent as bad verse lefties as u think...and there are alot of right handed bats that are hitting their stride right now...unless u follow the phillies, u probably dont know who chris coste is (3rd string catcher) but hes been clutch lately, and could get key late game at bat, and we have 3 right handed hitting catchers and a switch hitting utility InFielder in nunez.

2 crafty lefties going, the phils are better equipped to handle a lefty and have of late.

Lets not forget we all jumped on lilly a month ago on sunday espn game, and we got embarassed and lit up and played catch up all game, when he got tossed atfer 1 batter for "throwing at somebody".

Ive never had luck witht his guy, and strange things happen around him.

BoxingGuy · Jul 30, 2007

Cubs backers should use this....

Phillies are 1-4 in Hamels' last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Phillies are 1-4 in Hamels' last 5 starts as a road underdog

MistaFlava · Jul 30, 2007

Zeke...good stuff man. Lilly has been trustworthy most of the year with the exception of that first inning boot. GL man and thanks for the insight.

Chicago Cubs ML -115 has to be one of the top sides tonight!

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