7/31 Plays

buffettgambler · Jul 31, 2007

Marlins
Not many people are willing to back Olsen and the baggage he is prone to bringing to the mound any given start, but at this price I will. Olsen has been drastically underachieving all season as both mental and fundamental factors have been affecting his performances on the mound. After getting a vote of confidence this week by the Marlins coupled with being in bounceback mode and at home where his performances have the tendency of improving, don’t be surprised if you see a motivated effort out of him in this game. Part of the fundamental problems affecting his pitching performances this year has been his inability to consistently set up his fastball with his overpowering slider and changeup. This deficiency should be helped out by facing a young lineup vulnerable to going out of the strike zone and helping a pitcher who happens to be struggling with his command. With the majority of his pitching peripherals getting worse each month, this backing is more predicated on talent and speculation than recent form. The Rockies productivity on the road continues to be nowhere near their home performance, and should be quantified accordingly.

Unlike Olsen, Cook has been getting better each month, and is currently pitching in a month in which his BABIP, strike out rate and walk rate has significantly improved. That said, Cook continues to show a propensity of his performances being heavily correlated to the quality lineup he is up against. Facing just 8 “plus” lineups all season, and allowing five or more runs in four of those starts, Cook is still prone to being overpowered by a quality lineup like the Marlins. Cook is a rare sinkerballer struggling more against right handed hitting this year, a favorable variable for a Marlins lineup loaded from the right side and prone to struggle against most sinkerball pitchers.

buffettgambler · Jul 31, 2007

Cubs
Things should get much easier for this Cubs lineup that just faced one of the nastiest pitchers in baseball and now get to face one of the most hittable ones. False hope is all that appears left in expecting Eaton will return to the pitcher he was prior to his injuries. He just isn’t. He has been beaten and battered in almost every one of his starts this season, and despite facing his lowest opponent lineup quality rating this month, he has posted his worst numbers this season in the month of July. With having one of the lowest chase percentages in the league, Eaton will not be able to take advantage of the aggressive tendencies the Cubs lineup possess like Hammels was last night. Backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league should allow a potent Cubs lineup to have a break out game.

I am not a big fan of backing Marquis, especially with his current form he has displayed on the mound of late; I don’t have a problem backing him at this price and with expected ideal run support. What Marquis has improved on this year has been his effectiveness against left handed hitters and lowering his walk rate, two variables that should be magnified when facing a Phillies lineup that is talented from the left side and is the most patient one in the NL. Having dominance over Rollins, success over Rowand, and injuries to Utley, Victorino and Bourn, the Cubs will have the luxury of pitching around Howard and force a role player to beat them. The Cubs depth in their bullpen will give Pinella the ability to take Marquis out early, something that can not be done with Eaton.

buffettgambler · Jul 31, 2007

Diamondbacks
Don’t expect Germano to return to the dominant form he was pitching at earlier in the season. He just isn’t that type of pitcher. With the league finally figuring him out, Germano’s BABIP and well hit ratio have both increased significantly this month. However, so has his walk rate and his flyball ratio, while his strikeout rate has decreased, which are also signs indicative of potential dead arm. Germano will also have to face the Diamondbacks for the second time this month. Although this might not seem like much, this is only the third time in which a team has gotten a second go against Germano. The first two happened to be the Braves and Mariners, who were both overmatched in their first try against him just like the DBacks were, but were able to put up a combined 12 runs in just nine innings of work in their second go around with Germano. Germano has also not been able to take advantage of the confines of his home park, and although backed by a top tier bullpen, a bullpen with a few struggling pitchers in their arsenal.

Webb is once again quietly having a Cy Young type season, and will get to continue his upward trend against a Padres team he has had the upper hand against this season. Webb has faced them three times this season, and has yet to allow more than three runs in any of those starts. Webb goes as far as his sinker takes him, which is no surprise he is prone to dry spells. With his strike out rate this month higher than it has been in three seasons, coupled with a ground ball rate above career norm this month, it is apparent his sinker is working well at this point and time. He is also backed by one of the most effective and underrated pens in baseball. His ability to pitch as well on the road as he does at home, coupled with the Padres continued struggles hitting at home this season, minimizes home field advantage in this game.

buffettgambler · Jul 31, 2007

Red Sox
Bedard has been the flavor of the month for public bettors. Although it has paid off for such bettors in his recent outings, he must be looked at as an ongoing concern, and appears overvalued, even against a public favorite like the Red Sox. Bedard’s dominance in his last four outings has been incredibly impressive. But lets not forget those four starts were against a Rangers, White Sox, Devil Rays and A’s lineup all prone to being overpowered. Bedard’s success has been largely predicated on getting hitters to go out of the zone and chase his pitches. This holds especially true during his current hot streak where both his strike out rate and walk rate has gone up. Although such a style can out match most lineups, it leaves him vulnerable to patient lineups like the Red Sox and also accumulating high pitch counts early in games and leaving early, which does not bode ell when backed by an underachieving bullpen. Bedard has a history of struggling against the Red Sox and also has never been as effective as a road starter. Expect the Red Sox patience at the plate to force Bedard to come into the strike zone more in this outing, and also force him to an early exit.

Bedard is not the only dominant pitcher in this game currently in top form, as Beckett has taken his impressive season to another level this month, as all four of his July starts have been quality ones, and has done it against a potent Indians and Blue Jays lineup. Unlike Bedard whose success has been by getting hitters to chase, Becketts current hot streak has been predicated on challenging hitters and simply overpowering them. His strike out rate has taken a substantial jump this month, while his walk rate has leveled out in low territory. Past success against the Orioles should and fundamentally matching up well against this lineup makes his hot streak more sustainable tonight than his counterparts. Although the Orioles have been playing much better of late, they continue to be much less dangerous as a road team, and during their hot streak, have not been able to put forth a winning road record despite playing series against struggling home teams in the White Sox, Rangers and A’s this month.

buffettgambler · Jul 31, 2007

Blue Jays
This is not a play on Litsh and his unsustainable 4.00 ERA, rather a go against Jackson and the Drays worst bullpen in baseball that will come to follow. Just when some finally thought Jackson finally put together the missing pieces in his pitching arsenal by going six scoreless against the Yankees, he returns to his former self by getting dominated by the Orioles in his last outing. His propensity to allow the flyball and inability to pitch to both right handed hitters and left handed ones makes him especially vulnerable when pitching in his home park, against lineups with power spread throughout the lineup, and against lineups that have an ideal balance of right and left handed bats- all three variables working against him. Although Wheeler improves the Drays bullpen, his presence comes at a time in which their best bullpen arm, Reyes, is at his worst. Having gone over an inning yesterday reduces his potential role in this game, allowing a Blue Jays lineup to face some really poor pitching throughout this game.

Litsch’s peripherals and pitching potential support future regression. That said he has a good spot to continue his overachieving ways in this game, as he faces a struggling lineup whose aggressiveness at the plate will work against them when facing his finesse style of pitching. Backed by one of the deeper and better bullpens in the league should allow him to leave at early signs of struggle.

buffettgambler · Jul 31, 2007

Twins
Although Silva has shown some serious regression this month, making a lot of people think that he has returned to the pitcher he was last year, I don’t think that is the case. Last years disastrous season was in large part due to the ineffectiveness of his sinkerball that forced his fly ball rate to be at levels far worse than your typical sinkerball pitcher. During his July struggles, Silva has still managed a decent ground ball rate, indicative that his sinkerball is still working some. A lot of his recent struggles have occurred on the road, where he just isn’t the same type of pitcher, and returning back home against a lineup that he has had some success against should give him a good opportunity to make things right again. Backed by a top tier bullpen should limit the damage if things don’t get right.

De La Rosa has also witnessed some serious regression, as his problem of the past, his lack of control coupled with increased fly ball propensity out of the stretch has returned in during the last couple of months. This does not bode well when facing a Twins lineup, who will take everything a pitcher, will give them, and will make the most out of their free passes. It is no surprise that he has generate a 19.7% walk rate in his career against the Twins, which is concerning while supporting one over 12 this month.

buffettgambler · Jul 31, 2007

Angels
Now that the Angels got their letdown at the plat out of their system last night, they have an ideal opportunity to continue their upward trend against Weaver tonight. Although Weaver has been dominant in the month of June and July, lets not get carried away and forget who we are dealing with. Weaver’s fly ball rate and walk rate are actually above the level they were residing in during his disastrous start of the season, while although his well hit ratio has improved, they still reside at dangerous grounds. It is safe to assume he is prone to some regression. Weaver’s career long ineffectiveness against left handed bats leaves him vulnerable against and Angels lineup that will show him six.

Although Lackey has struggled since the break, I still think this is just a temporary glitch in his season, as his BABIP has increased at a faster rate than his well hit ratio, while his walk rate has stayed the same and his strike out rate has increased. The Mariners bats are also in a downward trend since the break, making their past success against Lackey less sustainable tonight. Lackey got a huge confidence boost in his only start against the Mariners this season, after being owned by them last year. Escobar’s ability to go the entire game last night gives the Angels the ability to react on early warning signs.

buffettgambler · Jul 31, 2007

Tigers
I still think the second half surge that is expected (but more than likely will not come) is continuing to bid up A’s prices. Haren’s unsustainable productivity is also bidding up the line at a price making taking the best road team in baseball attractive. Haren has shown strong evidence that he has peaked. His strike out rate has dropped 25% in July when compared to the last two months, while his well hit ratio has resided in mediocre territory this month. He has also shown strong evidence of playing the role of opportunist and getting to pitch in the AL West, as he has been vulnerable in three of the last four starts against plus lineups. Past struggles against the Tigers should continue, as he is about to face the best lineup he has seen out of them. Backed by a struggling bullpen will force Haren to curtail his signs of regression.

The only chance the A’s have in getting to Verlander is if they could take advantage of his potential bouts of wildness. That said, it might be easier said than done in this game, as his currently resides in a month in which his walk rate has been the best since in the middle of last season, while he is also backed by a liberal umpire. Verlander is prone to getting worn down late in the year, and his 28% ground ball rate this month is clear evidence he is on the brink of such again. However, pitching in a spacious park and against a lineup lacking power, Verlander’s regression signs should be curtailed.

NyGiants12 · Jul 31, 2007

what would be ur best picks out of these 8 that you would go with?? Lets say top 3??

arty:

ope:

arty:

im2bz4yaa · Jul 31, 2007

Appreciate the time spent.....but I think I'm taking the night off, as my plays have not been cashing as of late. Considering taking off till NFLx or NCAAF starts.

I'll still be rooting for your plays though, and I'm sure you'll have a very profitable night.

BZ

Dr.Swamee · Jul 31, 2007

Thank You Buffett!

SonnySixKill · Jul 31, 2007

need your opinion on the Braves, thax Buff

buffettgambler · Jul 31, 2007

Sonny SixKill said:
need your opinion on the Braves, thax Buff

They seem fairly valued. Not a bad play, but don't expect to get any value on them any time soon. Their two trades now give them one of the best lineups and bullpens in the league, but that will be factored into their lines here on out.

James has done well keeping runs off the board, but I am not sure how much longer it will last. His Whip is way too high for a flyball pitcher. Sooner or later, his walks will catch up with him. I am not laying that type of vig too wait and see when it will happen.
GL

finite · Jul 31, 2007

After reading this I added Arizona. Only game with substanial disagreement would be Seattle. Last 10 starts fo Weaver 33 k's and 14 walks not great but those ten games include 2 vs Detroit which is playoff revenge personified. Seattle is one the four most profitable teams to bet on in baseball and I personally think the Angels have been playing bad for at least 15 games. GL

zeketaylor · Jul 31, 2007

i think arizona was the writeup...along with maybe boston that switched sides i liked, or will make me stay away from the side i liked.......arizona compelling becs who hasnt experienced betting sd iego only to see your team get 3 hits and 1 run and never have a shot to win.......

i hate to do this...but u can u cap or comment on on suppan/ milwke vs mets.....brewers seem undervalued here at home

ymmit2nd · Jul 31, 2007

good luck...

buffettgambler · Jul 31, 2007

zeke taylor said:
i think arizona was the writeup...along with maybe boston that switched sides i liked, or will make me stay away from the side i liked.......arizona compelling becs who hasnt experienced betting sd iego only to see your team get 3 hits and 1 run and never have a shot to win.......

i hate to do this...but u can u cap or comment on on suppan/ milwke vs mets.....brewers seem undervalued here at home

I always welcome questions.

I valued the game at Mets -110/Brewers +110, so the game seems perfectly priced. I think you have a few overpriced variables colliding in this game, as I don't think the market is fully quantifying Glavine lack of productivity this year coupled with his 2 year trend of not pitching well on the road. This is not a park in which he is suited for, and may be overmatched tonight. In general, the Mets as a whole, is an overvalued entitity as well.

Offsetting these two variables is the overvaluation of Suppan. Suppan is far from the pitcher that was able to generate the numbers he did the last three years. There was a lot of luck and overachievment involved during that time span. I think what you see of Suppan this year is more or less what you will see here on out, but the market disagrees, as he continues to be priced at a slumping 3.90 ERA pitcher.

No play, nor even a lean, but good luck.