I'll take Ari +201

theoldschool · Aug 2, 2007

I may be crazy but I like Ari with Petit vs SD with Peavy! Ari is hot, while SD is cold. Also, a look at Petit's last 5 away starts compared to Peavy's last 5 home starts offers some support. Petit had 28.1 IP and allowed 8 ER. Peavy had 30 IP and allowed 16 ER. A good value at +201 IMO. Good luck!

goodcall · Aug 2, 2007

On them too...gl :toast:

Jibba · Aug 2, 2007

I haven't quite figured out why that line is so high, and still rising. Peavy doesn't have great numbers against 'Zona and he's been slightly worse in day games so far this year. He also hasn't completely come out of his slump just yet.

soswalter · Aug 2, 2007

Jibba, the public loves Peavy and doesn't know who Petit is.

Jibba · Aug 2, 2007

Yeah, I guess so. But it just seems crazy to me considering how these two teams have played recently. Because of that I feel like I'm walking into a trap with the dog. It sure as hell seems like the books don't want money on the Pads. Haven't seen where the money is going though.

Bookieman · Aug 2, 2007

on Zona as well BOL all!!

KOOPSTAKNICCA · Aug 2, 2007

I'll take ARIZONA WIT YA

Great value IMO. arizona playin good ball lately. small action wager for me. best of luck to all of us

goodcall · Aug 2, 2007

Jibba said:
Haven't seen where the money is going though.

SI (via thespread) has 65% on the Pads

deltadog · Aug 2, 2007

on zona also.. best of luck everyone

Deltadog

soswalter · Aug 2, 2007

75% of the public is on San Diego, so definitely not a trap... just the public's admiration for Peavy...

Jibba · Aug 2, 2007

goodcall said:
SI (via thespread) has 65% on the Pads

Thanks man. Couldn't resist the value, despite the fact I felt slightly weary about the line. Grabbed a unit at +212.

Jibba · Aug 2, 2007

soswalter said:
75% of the public is on San Diego, so definitely not a trap... just the public's admiration for Peavy...

Well part of the problem is that I have not seen a single capper with even a lean on SD here at the Rx. That's generally not a great sign, but I still think we're getting a great price on this one with a very live dog.

rza · Aug 2, 2007

this is the last "value" bet i place. peavy's mowing down their b-team lineup without breaking a sweat.

soswalter · Aug 2, 2007

Not looking good at all

rza · Aug 2, 2007

"great value at a great price", that's basically a used-car salesman's pitch.

Drewgasm · Aug 2, 2007

I dont understand this value stuff......if your team is +500.....it doesnt matter if they dont win.......I dont bet a team because of the line...I bet a team because I think they will win.....sometimes ya gotta lay a heavy number....sometimes you get a good number.....but dont just piss your money away because its a so called great "value" play.....ask yourself if that was a great value play after the game is a loss.....you guys are better than that....cmon!

Cheers!

:toast:

goodcall · Aug 2, 2007

Drewgasm said:
I dont bet a team because of the line...I bet a team because I think they will win

:smoker2:

goodcall · Aug 2, 2007

this will be a tough one to pull out...lol

to add insult to injury though, SD somehow has 10 runs on their 8 hits, and Ari couldn't muster 1 run from 3 hits. Just looking at the hits, this should be a 4-1 or 4-2 game right now

theoldschool · Aug 2, 2007

Every dog is a good bet at SOME price. I thought Ari would win more than 33 % of the time in this situation. Squares don't think the line matters; they just pick the team they think will win. I must admit that, today, Ari was NOT live.