Ben Burns
NL Game of the Month
FLORIDA MARLINS
Game: Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins Game Time: 8/4/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm laying the price with FLORIDA. The Astros won yesterday's series opener. However, they played a marathon game vs. Atlanta on Thursday and I expect it to catch up with them this evening. I also expect them to be a serious disvantage on the mound. Mitre has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six home starts, pitching a minimum of six complete innings in each. During that 6-game stretch, Mitre has an excellent 2.18 ERA. Jennings, on the other hand, is 1-2 with a horrid 16.20 ERA his last three starts and 1-6 with a 8.53 ERA his last seven appearances overall. That brings him to 2-7 with a 6.03 ERA for the season. Of course, his ERA took a serious hit in his last start when he allowed 11 earned runs in the first inning! That was at home though so we can't blame his 1-3 road record (and 5.52 ERA) on just a single bad start. Note that his team is just 3-12 the last 15 times that Jennings took the mound. Additionally, its worth mentioning that Jennings' normal routine may also be a little "messed up" as he was used both as a reliever and a pinch-hitter on Wednesday and Thursday. Mitre has dominated the Astros, going 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA. I expect him to deliver another quality start and for the Marlins to even up the series.
*NL Game of the Month
Florida Marlins
"BLUE CHIP" Over/Under Winner 6-1 L7 BCs
UNDER Mariners/Red Sox
Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Game Time: 8/4/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Mariners and Red Sox to finish UNDER the total. Washburn will be happy that this is a night-time start rather than an afternoon one. In six daytime starts, he is is 1-4 with a horrible 6.89 ERA. However, he is 7-3 with an excellent 3.21 ERA in 15 starts underneath the lights, averaging a healthy 6 1/2 innings per outing. Note that Washburn has seen the UNDER go 8-3 in 11 starts vs. Boston. He'll be opposed by Matsuzaka who has seen the UNDER go 3-0 his last three starts while recording a stellar 2.45 ERA. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 9-2 the last 11 times that "Dice K" took the mound. The UNDER has been particularly profitable when Matsuzaka has pitched away from Boston as we find that six of his last seven road starts have dipped below the number. Despite yesterday's game finishing above the total, the Red Sox have still seen three of their last five games vs. left-handed starters finish UNDER the number and seven of their last 11 overall. Meanwhile, the Mariners have seen the UNDER go 9-5-1 their last 15 games. This is the second time that Matsuzaka will have pitched at Seattle. The previous game ended with a final score of 2-1 as the Japanese hurler allowed only a single earned run through eight complete innings. I'm expecting another well-pitched and low-scoring affair.
BLUE CHIP Over/Under
UNDER Seattle Boston
Main Event
DEVIL RAYS
Game: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Devil Rays Game Time: 8/4/2007 7:10:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Devil Rays Reason: I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. The Orioles grabbed yesterday's opener and have dominated this series. However, I expect the Devil Rays to have a significant pitching advantage this evening and for them to snap their streak of futility against the Orioles. Kazmir gets the call for the home team and he's finally starting to pitch up to his vast potential again. In his last start he shutout a powerful Boston lineup through six complete innings, strking out eight while walking only one. Kazmir has now allowed a mere four runs in his last four starts, a span of 25 2/3 innings. That's a 1.40 ERA! Burres comes off an excellent outing of his own, as he outpitched Clemens and beat the Yankees. However, he still has an awful 8.10 ERA his last three starts. He has also dropped his last two road starts while posting a 13.50 ERA, with the Orioles losing his last four road starts. Since neither bullpen is exactly dominant, its also worth noting that Burres averages only five innings per start compared to Kazmir's six. Look for Kazmir to deliver his fifth straight quality start as the highly motivated Rays finally beat the Birds.
*Main Event
Tampa Bay DevilRays
NL Game of the Month
FLORIDA MARLINS
Game: Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins Game Time: 8/4/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm laying the price with FLORIDA. The Astros won yesterday's series opener. However, they played a marathon game vs. Atlanta on Thursday and I expect it to catch up with them this evening. I also expect them to be a serious disvantage on the mound. Mitre has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six home starts, pitching a minimum of six complete innings in each. During that 6-game stretch, Mitre has an excellent 2.18 ERA. Jennings, on the other hand, is 1-2 with a horrid 16.20 ERA his last three starts and 1-6 with a 8.53 ERA his last seven appearances overall. That brings him to 2-7 with a 6.03 ERA for the season. Of course, his ERA took a serious hit in his last start when he allowed 11 earned runs in the first inning! That was at home though so we can't blame his 1-3 road record (and 5.52 ERA) on just a single bad start. Note that his team is just 3-12 the last 15 times that Jennings took the mound. Additionally, its worth mentioning that Jennings' normal routine may also be a little "messed up" as he was used both as a reliever and a pinch-hitter on Wednesday and Thursday. Mitre has dominated the Astros, going 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA. I expect him to deliver another quality start and for the Marlins to even up the series.
*NL Game of the Month
Florida Marlins
"BLUE CHIP" Over/Under Winner 6-1 L7 BCs
UNDER Mariners/Red Sox
Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Game Time: 8/4/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Mariners and Red Sox to finish UNDER the total. Washburn will be happy that this is a night-time start rather than an afternoon one. In six daytime starts, he is is 1-4 with a horrible 6.89 ERA. However, he is 7-3 with an excellent 3.21 ERA in 15 starts underneath the lights, averaging a healthy 6 1/2 innings per outing. Note that Washburn has seen the UNDER go 8-3 in 11 starts vs. Boston. He'll be opposed by Matsuzaka who has seen the UNDER go 3-0 his last three starts while recording a stellar 2.45 ERA. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 9-2 the last 11 times that "Dice K" took the mound. The UNDER has been particularly profitable when Matsuzaka has pitched away from Boston as we find that six of his last seven road starts have dipped below the number. Despite yesterday's game finishing above the total, the Red Sox have still seen three of their last five games vs. left-handed starters finish UNDER the number and seven of their last 11 overall. Meanwhile, the Mariners have seen the UNDER go 9-5-1 their last 15 games. This is the second time that Matsuzaka will have pitched at Seattle. The previous game ended with a final score of 2-1 as the Japanese hurler allowed only a single earned run through eight complete innings. I'm expecting another well-pitched and low-scoring affair.
BLUE CHIP Over/Under
UNDER Seattle Boston
Main Event
DEVIL RAYS
Game: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Devil Rays Game Time: 8/4/2007 7:10:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Devil Rays Reason: I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. The Orioles grabbed yesterday's opener and have dominated this series. However, I expect the Devil Rays to have a significant pitching advantage this evening and for them to snap their streak of futility against the Orioles. Kazmir gets the call for the home team and he's finally starting to pitch up to his vast potential again. In his last start he shutout a powerful Boston lineup through six complete innings, strking out eight while walking only one. Kazmir has now allowed a mere four runs in his last four starts, a span of 25 2/3 innings. That's a 1.40 ERA! Burres comes off an excellent outing of his own, as he outpitched Clemens and beat the Yankees. However, he still has an awful 8.10 ERA his last three starts. He has also dropped his last two road starts while posting a 13.50 ERA, with the Orioles losing his last four road starts. Since neither bullpen is exactly dominant, its also worth noting that Burres averages only five innings per start compared to Kazmir's six. Look for Kazmir to deliver his fifth straight quality start as the highly motivated Rays finally beat the Birds.
*Main Event
Tampa Bay DevilRays