service plays 8/4/07

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Ben Burns

NL Game of the Month


FLORIDA MARLINS


Game: Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins Game Time: 8/4/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm laying the price with FLORIDA. The Astros won yesterday's series opener. However, they played a marathon game vs. Atlanta on Thursday and I expect it to catch up with them this evening. I also expect them to be a serious disvantage on the mound. Mitre has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six home starts, pitching a minimum of six complete innings in each. During that 6-game stretch, Mitre has an excellent 2.18 ERA. Jennings, on the other hand, is 1-2 with a horrid 16.20 ERA his last three starts and 1-6 with a 8.53 ERA his last seven appearances overall. That brings him to 2-7 with a 6.03 ERA for the season. Of course, his ERA took a serious hit in his last start when he allowed 11 earned runs in the first inning! That was at home though so we can't blame his 1-3 road record (and 5.52 ERA) on just a single bad start. Note that his team is just 3-12 the last 15 times that Jennings took the mound. Additionally, its worth mentioning that Jennings' normal routine may also be a little "messed up" as he was used both as a reliever and a pinch-hitter on Wednesday and Thursday. Mitre has dominated the Astros, going 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA. I expect him to deliver another quality start and for the Marlins to even up the series.

*NL Game of the Month
Florida Marlins





"BLUE CHIP" Over/Under Winner 6-1 L7 BCs

UNDER Mariners/Red Sox


Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Game Time: 8/4/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Mariners and Red Sox to finish UNDER the total. Washburn will be happy that this is a night-time start rather than an afternoon one. In six daytime starts, he is is 1-4 with a horrible 6.89 ERA. However, he is 7-3 with an excellent 3.21 ERA in 15 starts underneath the lights, averaging a healthy 6 1/2 innings per outing. Note that Washburn has seen the UNDER go 8-3 in 11 starts vs. Boston. He'll be opposed by Matsuzaka who has seen the UNDER go 3-0 his last three starts while recording a stellar 2.45 ERA. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 9-2 the last 11 times that "Dice K" took the mound. The UNDER has been particularly profitable when Matsuzaka has pitched away from Boston as we find that six of his last seven road starts have dipped below the number. Despite yesterday's game finishing above the total, the Red Sox have still seen three of their last five games vs. left-handed starters finish UNDER the number and seven of their last 11 overall. Meanwhile, the Mariners have seen the UNDER go 9-5-1 their last 15 games. This is the second time that Matsuzaka will have pitched at Seattle. The previous game ended with a final score of 2-1 as the Japanese hurler allowed only a single earned run through eight complete innings. I'm expecting another well-pitched and low-scoring affair.


BLUE CHIP Over/Under
UNDER Seattle Boston




Main Event

DEVIL RAYS

Game: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Devil Rays Game Time: 8/4/2007 7:10:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Devil Rays Reason: I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. The Orioles grabbed yesterday's opener and have dominated this series. However, I expect the Devil Rays to have a significant pitching advantage this evening and for them to snap their streak of futility against the Orioles. Kazmir gets the call for the home team and he's finally starting to pitch up to his vast potential again. In his last start he shutout a powerful Boston lineup through six complete innings, strking out eight while walking only one. Kazmir has now allowed a mere four runs in his last four starts, a span of 25 2/3 innings. That's a 1.40 ERA! Burres comes off an excellent outing of his own, as he outpitched Clemens and beat the Yankees. However, he still has an awful 8.10 ERA his last three starts. He has also dropped his last two road starts while posting a 13.50 ERA, with the Orioles losing his last four road starts. Since neither bullpen is exactly dominant, its also worth noting that Burres averages only five innings per start compared to Kazmir's six. Look for Kazmir to deliver his fifth straight quality start as the highly motivated Rays finally beat the Birds.


*Main Event
Tampa Bay DevilRays
 

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SCOTT SPREITZER

MLB AFTERNOON HEAVY HITTER GAME OF THE WEEK! (25-8!)

(953) NY Mets vs (954) CHI Cubs Game Starts at August 04 2007 12:55 EST Take (953) NY Mets I'm playing the Mets on Saturday afternoon (3:55pm ET). This is a current form, pitching mismatch. Ted Lilly has been struggling at Wrigley as of late. In his last two home starts, the lefty has been smacked for seven earned runs and 17 base runners in just 10 innings of work. That amounts to a hefty, 6.30 ERA & 1.70 WHIP. He'll face a Mets' lineup that's crushed southpaws in road day games for 6.5 RPG. Meanwhile, John Maine continues to pitch well. New York is 8-2 in his 10 road starts. His ERA in those outings stands at a fantastic 2.59 with a 1.08 WHIP. They're also a perfect 5-0 when Maine starts away from home and the opponent starts a left-hander. Finally, the Mets are a healthy 20-8 against NL Central opposition. With these two starters on the opposite end of current pitching form, we'll ride the hot arm of Maine backed by the solid hitting numbers

Afternoon Heavy Hitter GOW
New York Mets
 

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CAPPERS ACCESS

(Sat) MLB Cubs
(Sat) MLB Indians
(Sat) MLB Nationals


Gator's MLB 70% Situational Report:

MLB (Saturday): Play Against MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a team averaging <=0.5 errors per game this season facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(55-23 last 5 seasons.) (70.5%)

PLAY: NY Mets +100
 

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Ben Burns Comp


Game: Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins Aug 4 2007 3:55PM

Prediction: under

Reason: This afternoon's game doesn't feature the "big name" starters like we saw in yesterday's Santana vs. Sabathia showdown. However, we should still see another well-pitched affair. Garza has been superb since being called up from the minors and has a 1.48 ERA in four starts for the season. The last three of those games all finished below the number, including a 4-1 win over these same Indians most recently. Note that Garza had a whopping 11 Ks in just six innings in that game. Aaron Laffey will make his debut for the vistors after putting up some impressive numbers in the minors. Laffey started the season at Double-A Akron where he went 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA. Next, he went to Triple-A Buffalo where he went 7-3 with a 3.28 ERA with 62 Ks to just 19 walks. He'll (obviously) have the advantage of facing the Twins for the first time and I won't be surprised if he rises to the occasion with a big game. Lastly, note that the UNDER is a perfect 6-0 the last six times that the Twins faced a southpaw with those six games averaging less than six combined runs each. Consider a play on the UNDER.
 

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BOBBY MAXWELL


N.Y. Mets (even) at CHICAGO CUBS

Nailed Friday's big plus-money winner with the Indians over the Twins and have now hit two straight and three out of four complimentary plays on the diamond. Today we go to Wrigley Field for a Bonus Play on the Mets as they visit the Cubs.

The surging Cubs have climbed their way to to the top of the NL Central but this team isn't ready to compete with the top teams in the league. The Mets have by far the better team and will hammer Chicago today and score an easy win.

John Maine (12-5, 2.92 ERA) is on the hill today for New York and he has gone 2-0 in his last three starts. On the road he has been dominant, posting a 7-1 mark with a 2.59 ERA. The Mets have won six of his last eight outings and he's held the opposition to four earned runs or less in each of his last 10 outings.

He faced the Cubs back on May 15 and gave up three runs on seven hits over five innings. Last season he blanked the Cubs over seven innings on three hits of a 1-0 shutout.

Chicago's Ted Lilly (11-5, 3.60) goes today and he's 6-4 at Wrigley Field with a 3.42 ERA. Lilly got knocked around in his last start, giving up four runs on seven hits over five innings of a 4-1 loss to the Phillies. He hasn't seen the Mets since 2002 when he was with the Yankees but back then he gave up six runs on seven hits over four innings of an 11-2 loss.

New York is 26-10 in Main's last 36 starts and 9-2 the last 11 times he started on the highway. Play the Mets in this one as they should get to Lilly early and often.


3? N.Y. METS




SPORTS GAMBLING HOTLINE


NY Mets (+105) at CUBS Last night's winner on the underdog Orioles made it a 5-1 run the last 6 days with our comp plays, and an overall run of 213-163-3!

Late day today at Wrigley and we will back the Mets to continue their recent nice road play with the win over the Cubbies once again.

New York has won their last 3, and 5 of their last 7, and starter John Maine has been the "stopper" on the road for Willie Randolph's cluc, as Maine is 7-1 on the road this season with a 2.59 ERA.

Ted Lilly has been having an outstanding campaign, but our feeling is this career journeyman has been overachieving, and he did get touched up in his last start against the Phillies, as Philadelphia hung the loss on him as Lillly lasted only 5 innings and allowed 4 runs to score.

The Mets have won 4 of the 5 season series meetings this year, and are 3-1 their last 4 at Wrigley Field.

Play on the Metropolitans today.


3? METS



KARL GARRETT

San Francisco at SAN DIEGO (-135) The G-Man stands at 144-116-3 with his comp plays since joining the site, and tonight I like the Padres over the Giants once again.

Last night San Diego was able to score the 4-3 win in 10-innings, and tonight I like them to continue their momentum with another win as they get to go against the recent call-up Pat Misch who was both starting and relieving at Triple-A Fresno for the Giants farm club.

Clay Hensley when healthy, can get the job done and while he may get the distinction of serving up Barry Bonds 755th homer tonight, the only thing I am concerned with is the fact he gets the win for the Padres.

San Diego has gone a nice 3-1 against the Giants this season at Petco Park, and the Padres are 7-3 overall in the season series against San Fran. It is important to note the Giants own 2 of their wins this season when Hensley was toeing the rubber back in early April!

The G-Man believes it is Hensley's turn to get some retribution against the Giants, so lay the wood and take the Friars to get the win!



1? SAN DIEGO



 

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Big Al


Padres/Giants Winner. At 10:05pm our complimentary selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. The Padres have wanted to add some offensive firepower to their squad which features arguably the best pitching in baseball for quite some time and it looks like they've done it. In the past five games, the Padres have scored 38 runs, and that includes getting shut out in one of those games by last year's Cy Young award winner, Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks. And this firepower is coming from a couple of unlikely sources in the form of a pair of recently acquired players in outfielder Milton Bradley and third baseman Morgan Ensberg. Bradley has been playing great since being acquired back in early July, and Ensberg barely had time to unpack his backs from a July 31 deadline trade from the Astros, when he found himself in the starting lineup on Thursday night. It didn't take long for the new Padres corner man to get acquainted with his surroundings as he promptly belted two homers in the game and led his new team to an 11-0 rout of Arizona. Unfortunately however, just when things would seem right on both sides of the ball (hitting and pitching), the Padres #2 man (a co-ace with Jake Peavy if you will), Chris Young, has had to go on the DL due to an oblique issue, and Bradley sustained an injury in last night's game. Young's absence has opened the door for righthander Clay Hensley, who has pitched very well in three relief appearances since returning to the Majors from AAA, where he was sent earlier this season. Also, San Diego is 8-3 in the last eleven meetings with the Giants. Take the Padres.



John Ryan


Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Dodgers - Arizona has been hot – hot only in the win column and quite frankly that is what counts. But, I do believe they have had this winning streak among numerous mirrors and bit of smoke if you know what I mean. They are batting just 221 with a 292 OBP over their past 7 games and only 247 for the season. Although the bullpen sports a 4-0 record over their past 7 games they have also been lucky while sporting a 5.40 ERA. LAD batting 280 at home and 276 on the season. LAD bullpen has been great at home and even better in divisional games sporting a 2.88 ERA and 1.209 WHIP. The offense does not strike out much and the bullpen gets a high amount of strike outs – a very good combination and recipe that will serve them well down the stretch. Hernandez has had some real problems in his last 3 starts sporting a 7.72 ERA and 1.96 WHIP. Derek Lowe had been struggling , but regained his top level form in his last start. In that start against Houston he gave up just 1 ER. ARIZONA is 65-101 (-53.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. Arizona is 1-9 when installed as an underdog of +150 or more. Arizona has been red hot, but let's not forget that August has been the Dodgers month. They sport a 22-8 mark in August games with Little at the Helm. Take the Dodgers.



Marc Lawrence

Saturday LA Angels w/Escobar vs Blanton Halos send Kelvim Escobar to the mound against Oakland's Joe Blanton this afternoon knowing he is 7-1 in his team starts with a 1.71 ERA in day games this season. With Escobar looking to avenge a loss he suffered earlier this season against Blanton, and Blanton just 2-7 in his career team starts against the Angels, look for Los Angeles to improve to 14-4 on Saturdays this season here today.



NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS

MLB BASEBALL PICK
Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
Time : 7:10 PM EST
Pick: OVER 9
 

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BetOnSports360

<o:p></o:p>
>>>LEVEL 3 PLAY

<st1:city><st1:place>TAMPA</st1:place></st1:city> over <st1:city><st1:place>Baltimore</st1:place></st1:city>
<st1:city><st1:place>
</st1:place></st1:city>
Forensic team and pitching information on this game; last 3 appearances for each pitcher: Kazmir 1.83 ERA, 9.61 walks/hits per game, Burres 8.10 ERA, 16.88 walks/hits per game, Kazmir 3.20 home ERA, Burres 5.85 road



USA SPORTS CONSULTING
Earl Morgan

Cleveland Indians -111


Jimmy Boyd


MLB Boston vs. Seattle
Take Seattle Mariners
1 Unit on Mariners +137 (action) The Mariners have dominated the Red Sox at home over the last 3 seasons winning 10 of 12 meetings. Seattle is on fire winning 5 of its last 6 games with Friday’s matchup pending. At 36-20, the M’s are one of the best home teams in baseball. Boston is a terrible 10-21 against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons and Seattle is 18-10 against the money line against AL East opponents this season. Take the mighty Mariners.


Jeff Alexander

MLB Cleveland vs. Minnesota
Take Under
1 Unit on Indians/Twins Under 9.5 (action) The Twins are 20-8 Under in August games over the last 2 seasons and 18-8 Under in the second half of the season this season. Minnesota has gone under the total in 5 straight games with Friday’s game pending. With the way the Tribe has been struggling at the plate, we’ll make an Under play on the Twins here.
 

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BET BET WIN
Saturday August 4th, 2007

Boston is 6-12 on the road vs LH starters and the Mariners will be facing Dice K for the 4th time this season. Dice K was great in his last outing againts the Mariners, but the Mariners did win that game. Same happens today

Free Pick: Seattle +125



MIKE WYNN Bonus Play:
Atlanta w/Hudson -175 Over Colorado



UNIONMANSPICKS
Bonus Play FOR SATURDAY


(MLB) LA ANGELS -135


COMPUTER PICKS
Saturday, August 4th, 2007
Eastern Time
Best Bets * * *

Time Game Selections
1:07 p.m. Texas at Toronto Toronto Blue Jays - 175
3:55 p.m. NY Mets at Chicago Cubs New York Mets + 105
7:05 p.m. Chicago Sox at Detroit Detroit Tigers - 150
7:05 p.m. Houston at Florida Florida Marlins - 150
10:05 p.m. Boston at Seattle Seattle Mariners + 130


GINA'S PICKS


Saturday, August 4th, 2007 1:05 p.m. est.



Kansas City Royals (48-60) at New York Yankees (59-50)
(R) Kyle Davies (0-0) vs. (R) Philip Hughes (1-1)



Kansas City's right-hander Kyle Davies (00) Davies was acquired from Atlanta for reliever Octavio Dotel. The right-hander will make his first start today for the Royals. He is 4-8 with a 5.76 ERA in 17 starts for the Braves this season.

New York's right-hander Philip Hughes (1-1, 3.38 ERA) return to the big leagues from the minors. He allowed four runs in 4 1/3 innings in a 6-0 loss to Toronto in his major league debut on April 26, but pitched a no-hitter over 6 1/3 innings against Texas on May 1, but was forced to leave with a strained left hamstring. Hughes went 2-0 with a 0.42 ERA in his five Minor League starts.

The Yankees have won six of their last 7 games at home and have beaten the Royals in 17 of the last 18 meetings at home Go with New York to continue their supremacy over the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium. New York has won 25 of the last 28 meetings versus Kansas City in the Big Apple since the 2000 season.


New York Yankees – 230


KIKI SPORTS

TAMPA BAY -130
 

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Ness Comp

Larry Ness | MLB Money Line
<DT>980 SEA (+130) vs 979 BOS </DT>
Analysis:
I won with the Mariners last night and will come back with them again tonight, although with a little less confidence. Last night Seattle was facing a lefty and the 7-4 win gives the Mariners a 21-8 (plus-$1,575) mark vs lefties this year, including a 13-2 mark at home. Tonight, Seattle must battle Daisuke Matsuzaka. Boston is the fifth-highest scoring team in the majors with 561 runs but has plated two runs or less in 10 of Matsuzaka's last 12 starts. Matsuzaka (12-8, 3.75 ERA) has alternated wins and losses in his last six outings, receiving just four runs of support in the defeats. Seattle's Jarrod Washburn (8-7, 4.11) takes the hill Saturday, once again seeking his first win since the All-Star break. Washburn posted a 1.23 ERA in winning his final three starts before the break but is 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA in four starts since. However, despite his recent struggles, the Mariners have won five of his last seven starts. It's also good news that the Red Sox are now, after last night's loss, 6-12 (minus-$960) vs left-handers away from Fenway. Take the Mariners.
 

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PLATINUM PLAYS

MLB: the <st1:city w:st="on">PITTSBURGH</st1:city> PIRATES - 125 Over the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:city></st1:place> Reds
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Tony Karpinski

<st1:state w:st="on">Colorado</st1:state> Rockies vs. <st1:city w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:city> Braves (MLB)
Aug 4, 2007 7:05 PM EDT

Play: Money Line:<st1:state w:st="on">Colorado</st1:state> Rockies

<st1:state w:st="on">Colorado</st1:state> at <st1:city w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:city> 7:05pm ET Pick on the <st1:state w:st="on">Colorado</st1:state> <st1:place w:st="on">Rockies</st1:place> with Jimenez. The Atlanta Braves will still be depleted after their 5 hr game 2 nights ago. In that game they out hit the Astros 22-11 yet lost the game. Also in the game, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Edgar Renteria, and Jeff Francoeur were all injured or hit on the hand by a pitch. There is only so much Mark Teixeira can do in the lineup. I expect the Rockies to take advantage and win this one tonight over <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Hudson</st1:place></st1:city>.

Play on <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Colorado</st1:place></st1:state>
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RAZOR SHARP

ARIZONA/LA DODGERS UNDER the total of 8
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Michael Alexander

St Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals (MLB)
Aug 4, 2007 7:05 PM EDT

Play: Washington Nationals

Play on Washington w/ Hanrahan

The St. Louis Cardinals looks to snap a three game losing streak when they take on the Nationals in game 2 of their 3 game weekend series. Last night the Cardinals lost 3-2 as <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:state> plated the winning run in the bottom of the ninth. <st1:city w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:city> continues to struggle this season at 50-56 overall but is within striking distance of <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1:place></st1:city> at 7 games out.

The Cardinal bats haven't been as potent as years past scoring only 4.2 runs and hitting .269 in night games this season. They should get some relief tonight as they face Joel Hanrahan who will be making only his second start of the season. In his first start Hanrahan gave up three runs in 6 innings of work as his team beat the Mets 6-5. This will be his first career start versus the Cardinals.

The Nationals, by virtue of last night's win, have now won 4 in a row and are 9-4 their last 13. Since the All Star Break they have actually been above the .500 mark and have made their backers money when at home at +700 on the season.

The <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:state> bats have picked it up a bit over their last seven games upping their run production to 4.7 runs per game on .288 team hitting. Tonight they will be facing veteran right-hander Joel Pineiro who will be making his first start of the season. Down the stretch last season Pineiro was terrible going 0-3 and giving up an average of 7 runs per game. The last time he faced <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:state> was in 2003 where his team lost 9-3.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: WASHINGTON is 19-8 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. WASHINGTON is 11-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ST LOUIS is 6-14 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

<st1:city w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:city> has struggled versus righties this season and they won't have much support in keeping the <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:state> bats in check with Pineiro on the mound. Good value here. I'm taking <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Washington</st1:state></st1:place>.
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<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">NEVADA</st1:state></st1:place> SHARPSHOOTER

SATURDAY
DIAMONDBACKS +155 OVER DODGERS
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BIG TIME SPORTS

SATURDAY AUGUST 4th
<st1:city w:st="on">CINCINNATI</st1:city> / <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">PITTSBURGH</st1:city></st1:place> OVER 9.5
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ARTHUR RALPH

<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">TORONTO</st1:city></st1:place> BLUE JAYS
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TOTALS 4 U

SAN FRANCISCO/SAN DIEGO OVER 8 ½
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Drew Gordon

Value with a surging Mets team... What more could you ask for?! Listen guys, I'm well aware of Ted Lilly and what he's done this season, but its John Maine who's been really impressive of late.
The Mets righty is 6-1 with a rock-solid 2.73 ERA over his last 8 starts, including 5 scoreless innings of 1-hit baseball in a rain shortened win over the Nationals in his last start! He may be 0-1 in 3 career starts against the Cubbies, but he's posted a miniscule 2.08 ERA over that span.
There's no question Lilly is one of the best southpaws in the Majors... Problem is the Mets eat southpaws for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, averaging .307 over their last 10 games against them (.291 on the season). Past history tells us Lilly maybe in trouble, having gone 0-1 with 6.52 ERA in 3 career outings (2 starts) against the Mets.
Bottom line, the Mets are rolling and starting their best arm over the last month and half. For the price, there's no better value this afternoon boys!
Take the NY Mets behind John Maine over the Chi. Cubs in afternoon MLB action.

3♦ NY METS
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HUDDLE UP

<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:city></st1:place> Davies +220
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Chuck Franklin

The A's have beaten the Angels seven of the last 11 times. They came-from behind last night for a win that ties the series at one apiece. The A's have won three of the last four. Joe Blanton is on the mound tonight in the role of home dog.

Blanton has sucked lately, going 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA over his last five starts. He is only 1-6 lifetime against the Angels. But, red-hot Chone Figgins bats only .226 against Blanton and Vlad Guerrero is only .231 against him. The Angels have lost eight of the last 12 on the road. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Oakland</st1:place></st1:city> is 4-1 the last five games as a home underdog and 8-3 in Blanton's last 11 home starts as an underdog.

Kelvim Escobar gets the start for LA. Despite pitching well, he has lost each of his last two starts. Escobar is 0-2 in two starts against the A's this season. The Angels are only 1-4 the last five games on the road when listed as a favorite of -150 or less and they are 2-5 the last seven road games against a team with a losing record.

3♦ <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">OAKLAND</st1:place></st1:city>
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Brandon Lang

SATURDAY

15 DIME

Phillies -1 1/2 runs - Specify Pitchers - Hamels vs Bush

5 DIME

Mets - Specify Pitchers - Maine vs Lilly

Twins - Specify Pitchers - Laffey vs Garza

free pick - Mariners - (For analysis see daily video)

PHILLIES
Remember the last time I used a run line play?
Cole Hammels and the Phillies dramatic win over the Nationals 7-5 as Ryan Howard hit the 2-run homer in the 14th for the run line cover.
Hammels received a no decision in that game but he should have had the win as his bullpen gave it up with a 3-run top of the 9th.

Now, Cole Hammels comes off a fantastic road start at Wrigley field where he beat the Cubs 4-1 to push his record to 12-5.
Now this is where it gets truly amazing.

In all 12 of his wins this year the Phillies have won by 2 runs or more in all 12 wins. If you dig deeper you will see that all but 2 of those 12 wins have been by 3 runs or more.

To put it bluntly, if you think Cole Hammels is going to win, you would be smart to lay -1 1/2 runs. That is how in tune this guy is.

Personally, I don't think Bush can shut down the Phillies here. I just don't.

With Philly off the loss last night and the Brewers still struggling to 1 run over Kendrick, I will call for the Phillies to step up and get a big win here.

Watch Hamels go to 13 wins and shut down the Brewers and the Phillies win by 2 runs or more.

PHILLY -1 1/2 RUNS

METS

This team is hot right now and I just can't pass up this kind of value with Maine, especially this kind of price on the road.

Forget the fact he is 12-5 on the year with a 2.92 ERA. Look at his road numbers.

He is 7-1 on the highway with a 2.59 ERa and has won back to back starts allowing just 2 earned over his last 12 innings.

Against the Cubs he has allowed just 3 earned over his last 12 innings. Solid there folks.

He has slowly stepped up to be the leader of this staff.

Lilly is starting to fall off a bit and you saw it in his last start where he was tagged for 4 runs in 5 innings in a loss to the Phillies.

I rode the Mets as a nice dog winner on Thursday and I will back them to bark loudly on Saturday.

Mets are the play.

TWINS

I will back Garza today.

He is 1-2 this year but look at that ERA. 2.19 at home, 0.75 on the road and overall it's 1.48.

To put it bluntly, he is ready to beat the Indians this time around.

This past Sunday, he struck out a career-high 11 in six innings, while holding Cleveland to one run and five hits in getting a no decision.

Laffey comes up from Triple AAA where he went 7-3 with an ERA of 3.28.

Trust me folks, the Metrodome is no place for a 1st major league start and this kid Laffey will go down hard.

I am aware of the fact the Indians have pretty much owned the Twins this year but so did the Dodgers over Arizona and looked what happened there.

I just feel this is a wonderful spot to back the Twins at home getting Garza at an unbelievable price.

Twins are my play here.
 

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EZ Winners

2 STAR PARLAY: (979) BOSTON (-$141) & (956) FLORIDA (-$145)
(Listing Matsuzaka/Washburn and Mitre/Jennings)
(Risking $200 to win $377)


1 STAR: (954) CHICAGO (-$105) over NY Mets
(Listing Lilly and Maine)
(Risking $105 to win $100)


1 STAR: (978) MINNESOTA (-$117) over Cleveland
(Listing Garza and Laffey)
(Risking $117 to win $100)



YESTERDAY'S RECAP - We were 2-2 on Friday. A $100 player won $31. We scratched out a small profit yesterday, splitting our four selections.

PARLAY: TORONTO & NY YANKEES (+$105) WON +$315
CHICAGO (-$142) LOST -$284
FLORIDA (+$100) LOST -$200
SAN DIEGO (-$126) WON +$200
 

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DARK HORSE

<st1:city w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:city> Ev over <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:state>
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Michael Cannon

Take the Twins tonight at home over the Indians.
Matt Garza will start for <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:place></st1:state> and he's pitched well over his last three starts, he just hasn't received any run support. The right-hander is 0-2 but sports a 1.96 ERA over that span.
The Tribe will start Aaron Laffey and the left-hander will be making his major league debut.
It's always tough for a pitcher in his first game, but pitching on the road against a solid lineup like the Twins should make it even tougher.
Take the Twins as the small home chalk as they grab the win.

4♦ <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">MINNESOTA</st1:place></st1:state>
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EASY MONEY SPORTS

<st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">SAN DIEGO</st1:place></st1:city> w/Hensley -135
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Tom Freese

Game: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Aug 4 2007 10:05PM

Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Reason: San Diego starter Clay Hensley is in terrible KW form with more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Hensley has allowed 11 runs in 9 innings of work in 2 starts against <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:place></st1:city> this year. The Giants are going with highly touted lefthander Phil Misch who put up some awesome numbers in the minors. Play On <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:city></st1:place> + (Misch vs. Hensley)
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Jimmy The Moose

Game: Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Aug 4 2007 7:10PM

Prediction: <st1:city w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:city> Orioles

Reason: <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:place></st1:city> is 8-3 in their last 11 games. In their last 14 games played on Astro Turf the Orioles are 10-4. The Orioles have won 4 of their last 5 games played on Saturday's. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tampa</st1:place></st1:city> is 17-36 in their last 53 games. In their last 59 games vs. AL East teams the D'Rays are a horrible 17-42. In their last 63 games vs. a team with a losing record they are 16-47. In Kazmir's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record TB is 2-5. <st1:city w:st="on">Tampa</st1:city> has lost 4 of his last 5 starts vs. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:place></st1:city>. The Orioles have won 6 of the last 8 games played in <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tampa</st1:place></st1:city>. The Orioles are 38-14 in the last 52 meetings overall between the clubs. Play on the Orioles +
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John Fina
August 4, 2007

Selection: <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:city></st1:place> Cardinals (-105)
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DAVE PRICE

MLB Houston vs. Florida

Take Florida Marlins

1 Unit on <st1:state w:st="on">Florida</st1:state> -151 (listing <st1:city w:st="on">Jennings</st1:city> and Mitre) The Astros have lost 7 of <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Jennings</st1:place></st1:city>’ last 8 starts. His 2-7 mark with an ERA over 6.00 will not strike any fear into the Marlins at home in this one. Mitre and won 3 of his last 4 decisions. We anticipate his sinker giving the poor-hitting Astros all kinds of trouble today. Take the Marlins at home.
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DR VEGAS

Braves -185 over <st1:place w:st="on">Rockies</st1:place>
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TONY WESTON

<st1:state w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:state> Twins behind Matt Garza (1-2, 1.37) over the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Cleveland</st1:city></st1:place> Indians and Aaron Laffey (0-0, -.--).
If you saw Garza pitch against the Indians at Jacobs in his last start, then you know why were siding with the Twins here. He allowed 1 run over 6 innings, fanning 11 Indians in the process!
A true power pitcher, look for Garza to easily outpitch Aaron Laffey, who's making his Major League debut tonight at the Metrodome. Besides the fact he's green, Laffey will have to deal with a Twins club batting .280 against southpaws at home.
While the Twins have had trouble with the Indians this season, the Tribe could be headed for a letdown tonight. Garnering sole possession atop the AL Central for the first time in nearly a month, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cleveland</st1:place></st1:city> could easily get caught off-guard tonight.
Look for Garza to once again muscle the Indians with his tremendous fastball, while Laffey goes through the usual growing pains of starting your first game in the Majors. Twins get their first win of the season at the Metrodome against the Tribe tonight!

3♦ <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">MINNESOTA</st1:state></st1:place> (on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)
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SCOTT DELANEY

<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">DETROIT</st1:city></st1:place> W/ BONDERMAN
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JEFF BENTON

I really like Devil Rays lefty Scott Kazmir – with his stuff, he should be a multiple All-Star participant throughout the duration of his career. But I just can’t see laying this kind of number, especially considering how bad <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Tampa</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">Bay</st1:placetype></st1:place> is playing and how well the O’s are going.
And besides, the O’s have already defeated Kazmir twice this season, winning 3-0 at home on July 24 and 6-4 in <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tampa</st1:place></st1:city> on April 18. In fact, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:place></st1:city> is 37-14 in the last 51 meetings with the DRays, including 8-1 this year! That 37-14 record includes a 6-3 mark in games that Kazmir has started (3-1 in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Tampa</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">Bay</st1:placetype></st1:place>).
As for Orioles starter Brian Burres, he’s been highly inconsistent of late, and that does scare me. However, he is coming off last Saturday’s terrific start against a red-hot Yankees lineup. In that one, he surrendered just a run on four hits in six innings, and <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:place></st1:city> went on to a 7-5 win.
Now, the Devil Rays’ young lineup is pretty good, but it’s certainly not as good as the Yankees’, especially lately – Tampa is batting barely .260 as a team in its last 10 games; conversely, the Orioles’ are hitting better than .300 during that stretch
With Baltimore also rating a significant edge in the bullpen, this is a great underdog spot for the O’s.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)

3♦ BALTIMORE ORIOLES
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HAWKEYE

Washington & <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:place></st1:city> over 9
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Scott Rickenbach

Tor vs Tex

OVER the total in Toronto vs Texas
Marcum vs Loe @ 1:07 ET

Yesterday's game found it's way over the total even with a "resurgent" Kevin Millwood and a Cy Younger, Roy Halladay, on the mound. We have little doubt that this afternoon's game will also find it's way over the total as Kameron Loe and Shaun Marcum square off. Two solid lineups are meeting and with these two starters on the bump the decent bullpens these teams have also will not be enough to keep this game under the total.
Loe is 0-3 with a 6.08 ERA in his last five starts. Loe does have solid numbers against the Blue Jays in his career but the appearances have certainly been limited. We were not impressed at all with the way Loe threw against the Royals in Sunday's 10-0 loss. As for the Blue Jays Marcum, he is coming off of a strong start against the White Sox on Sunday. However, he did end up with a 4.75 ERA in July and he's got a 4.50 ERA in his career against the Rangers.

Note that Marcum has struggled in daytime outings in his career as evidenced by his 6.46 ERA in 69.2 innings under the sun. He also has struggled versus lefties in his career as they have enjoyed the most success against him. The Rangers have a decent number of lefthanded bats and switch hitters that they can use in this afternoon's match-up. Look for double digits again in today's contest just like last night's match up.

Play OVER the total in <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Toronto</st1:place></st1:city>
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Gator Report

MLB (Saturday): Play Over MLB (AL) team with a batting average range of .265 to .279 facing a starting pitcher whose ERA is in the range of 4.70 to 5.70 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts.
(40-16 last 5 seasons.) (71.4%) PLAY: Baltimore / Tampa Bay OVER 9 (+100)

__________________________________________________ ______________

Gator's E-Report (Free)

MLB (Saturday): Play Against MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a team averaging <=0.5 errors per game this season facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(55-23 last 5 seasons.) (70.5%) PLAY: NY Mets +100
 

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I know it is early and someone always ask this but any word on Ness today? I am running out for the whole day and would like to see if I can get it before I leave. Thanks to all for this daily thread. It the most valuable thing in the industry
 

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Alex Smart

Pay Premium Pick

MLB - 1:05 ET
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees

NEW YORK YANKEES -1.5

The Yankees have the best record (16-7) in baseball since the All-Star break. Their offense is peaking right now, living upto the title of the Bronx Bombers. Having scored over 200 runs in July, they have carried that momentum over into the early days of August. The Yankees have averaged 10 runs per game at home in their last five and when this team gets it going, it is like a juggernaught. New York are 31-4 vs the -1.5 runline in wins at home this season, including 24-2 the last 26. They have outscored their opponents 220-77 in those 26 wins, that's an average differential of 5.5 rpg. The Pinstripes are also 11-1 in their last 12 vs. the runline when the moneyline is over -200. The Zoo Crew have won those games by a combinded 113-45 or by 5.7 rpg. The Yankees as a team are hitting over .300 at the Stadium on the entire season. The moneyline is steep, so I suggest you play the runline, especially when you have a team scoring runs in bunches.

New York Yankees -115 on the runline (-1.5 runs).
 

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NFL

Ben Burns

H.O.F. OVER/UNDER Blowout

UNDER saints/steelers (play at 34 or better)

Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Game Time: 8/5/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Steelers and Saints to finish UNDER the total. The Saints were a very offensive team last season and they played an extremely high-scoring game against the Steelers. While that has helped to keep the over/under line at or above the key number of 34, the fact remains that neither first-team offense will be seeing much time. The Saints' main priority will be staying healthy and they'll be more concerned with working on their defense this preseason than on their offense. Tomlin comes from a defensive background (was coordinator of a good Minnesota defense) and I expect that he'll be anxious to put his stamp his new team with a strong defensive effort in the opener. Last year's H.O.F game produced only 26 points (16-10 Raiders) and I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring game which stays beneath the number once again.
 

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Trev Rogers

78-57-1 Last 67 days
117-78-3 Last 198 selections
6 - 6 This Week

Reds +117
 

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