Ben Burns
Personal Favorite
MARLINS
Game: Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins Game Time: 8/5/2007 1:05:00 PM Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm laying the price with FLORIDA. While I look for the Marlins to build some momentum from yesterday's exciting extra-inning victory, I expect the Astros, who also played a marathon game vs. Atlanta on Thursday, to be rather deflated from the loss. I also expect the Marlins to have the edge on the mound. Yes, Olsen has struggled lately and yes he did have a well-documented scuffle with police recently. However, in my opinion, Olsen still has plenty of talent and he's still fully capable of stepping up with a quality effort. I'm not so sure that the same can be said for Albers, Olsen's opponent. Albers is getting the start because Sampson has gone on the disabled list. It certainly wasn't due to his 2-6 career record and 5.94 ERA. Albers, who hasn't pitched more than five big league innings in a major league game since May (bad news for a depleted bullpen!) has an awful 6.62 ERA in 11 road appearances (5 starts) this season. He'll be facing a a Marlins team which has gone 3-0 its last three Sunday home games and 12-6 their last 18. Look for Olsen to outpitch Albers as the Marlins close out the series with a victory over their road weary guests.
Personal Favorite
Florida Marlins
NFL Pre-Season
H.O.F. OVER/UNDER Blowout
UNDER Saints/Steelers (play at 34 or better)
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Game Time: 8/5/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Steelers and Saints to finish UNDER the total. The Saints were a very offensive team last season and they played an extremely high-scoring game against the Steelers. While that has helped to keep the over/under line at or above the key number of 34, the fact remains that neither first-team offense will be seeing much time. The Saints' main priority will be staying healthy and they'll be more concerned with working on their defense this preseason than on their offense. Tomlin comes from a defensive background (was coordinator of a good Minnesota defense) and I expect that he'll be anxious to put his stamp his new team with a strong defensive effort in the opener. Last year's H.O.F game produced only 26 points (16-10 Raiders) and I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring game which stays beneath the number once again.
Under New Orleans/Pittsburgh
Pitching Mismatch of the Month
INDIANS
Game: Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins Game Time: 8/5/2007 2:10:00 PM Prediction: Cleveland Indians Reason: I'm laying the price with CLEVELAND. Carmona (13-5) lost his last start. However, he didn't pitch badly by any means as he allowed only five hits and two runs through seven complete innings. Carmona hadn't allowed a single earned run in his previous two starts, going eight complete innings in each. That gives him a 0.78 ERA his last three starts! Carmona is "in his element" here as he struggles at night but is terrific during the day. In fact, he is a perfect 8-0 with a miniscule 1.98 ERA in nine afternoon starts this season! Baker also comes off a strong start. However, unlike Carmona, he has been awful when pitching during the afternoon. Indeed, in three daytime starts Baker has a terrible 10.05 ERA allowing opposing hitters a .414 batting average! Baker hasn't faced the Indians this season but is just 1-3 with a poor 5.47 ERA against them for his career. Carmona, on the other hand, is already 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in two starts against the Twins this season, holding them to a mere .179 batting average. Look for him to continue his daytime dominance as the Indians grab the rubber game and improve to 8-3 the last 11 games in this series.
Pitching Mismatch of the Month
Cleveland Indians
Ben Burns
UNDER reds/pirates
Game: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game Time: 8/5/2007 1:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. After a pair of "slug-fests" in the first two games of this series, including yesterday's extra inning marathon. Despite playing on a losing team, Gorzellany has been solid all season, going 9-6 with a 3.55 ERA. That includes a 3-1 mark with a 3.43 ERA during the afternoon. He's also been at his best at home, recording a 3.04 ERA in 10 starts here while holding opposing hitters to a mere .236 batting average. Backed by the third lowest scoring team in the majors, not surprisingly, Gorzellany has seen the UNDER go 9-6-1 his last 16 starts and 8-5-1 his last 14 at home. Arroyo is expected to get the call for the visitors. Yes, he's coming off a bad start. However, he tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings in his previous start. That was his second shutout (of at least seven innings) in his last four starts and marked the sixth time in his last eight starts that he had allowed three earned runs or less and seventh time in eight starts that he had allowed four earned runs or less. Dating back to last August and we find the UNDER at 12-7 the last 19 times that Arroyo started on the road. While Arroyo is currently expected to be the starter, note that I will still play the UNDER if Livingston gets the call instead. Livingston has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. The Pirates have seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 the last six Sundays. Look for today's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again.
Ben Burns
MLB Total
free pick LOS / 913 ARI Over 7.5
Analysis:
Both these pitchers are capable of dominating. Webb is the reigning NL Cy Young winner and is enjoying another strong season. Penny, his opponent, has a good chance of taking home this year's award. That being said, Penny hasn't been nearly as sharp lately and neither pitcher has performed very well when pitching during the afternoon. Penny is 12-2 with a 2.36 ERA at night, holding opponents to a .235 batting average. However, he has a poor 5.11 ERA in three daytime starts, allowing opposing hitters a much higher .306 average. Meanwhile, Webb has a 2.84 ERA during his 19 night starts, holding opposing hitters to a .231 average. He's just 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA during the day though, allowing opposing hitters to hit a healthy .304. After a pitcher's duel in Friday's opener, the bats came to life yesterday as the teams combined for a whopping 15 runs. That brought the "over" to 4-2 the last six series meetings and 9-5 the last 14 times that the Diamondbacks traveled to LA. Don't be surprised if they find away above the low number again this afternoon. Consider a play on the OVER
Personal Favorite
MARLINS
Game: Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins Game Time: 8/5/2007 1:05:00 PM Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm laying the price with FLORIDA. While I look for the Marlins to build some momentum from yesterday's exciting extra-inning victory, I expect the Astros, who also played a marathon game vs. Atlanta on Thursday, to be rather deflated from the loss. I also expect the Marlins to have the edge on the mound. Yes, Olsen has struggled lately and yes he did have a well-documented scuffle with police recently. However, in my opinion, Olsen still has plenty of talent and he's still fully capable of stepping up with a quality effort. I'm not so sure that the same can be said for Albers, Olsen's opponent. Albers is getting the start because Sampson has gone on the disabled list. It certainly wasn't due to his 2-6 career record and 5.94 ERA. Albers, who hasn't pitched more than five big league innings in a major league game since May (bad news for a depleted bullpen!) has an awful 6.62 ERA in 11 road appearances (5 starts) this season. He'll be facing a a Marlins team which has gone 3-0 its last three Sunday home games and 12-6 their last 18. Look for Olsen to outpitch Albers as the Marlins close out the series with a victory over their road weary guests.
Personal Favorite
Florida Marlins
NFL Pre-Season
H.O.F. OVER/UNDER Blowout
UNDER Saints/Steelers (play at 34 or better)
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Game Time: 8/5/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Steelers and Saints to finish UNDER the total. The Saints were a very offensive team last season and they played an extremely high-scoring game against the Steelers. While that has helped to keep the over/under line at or above the key number of 34, the fact remains that neither first-team offense will be seeing much time. The Saints' main priority will be staying healthy and they'll be more concerned with working on their defense this preseason than on their offense. Tomlin comes from a defensive background (was coordinator of a good Minnesota defense) and I expect that he'll be anxious to put his stamp his new team with a strong defensive effort in the opener. Last year's H.O.F game produced only 26 points (16-10 Raiders) and I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring game which stays beneath the number once again.
Under New Orleans/Pittsburgh
Pitching Mismatch of the Month
INDIANS
Game: Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins Game Time: 8/5/2007 2:10:00 PM Prediction: Cleveland Indians Reason: I'm laying the price with CLEVELAND. Carmona (13-5) lost his last start. However, he didn't pitch badly by any means as he allowed only five hits and two runs through seven complete innings. Carmona hadn't allowed a single earned run in his previous two starts, going eight complete innings in each. That gives him a 0.78 ERA his last three starts! Carmona is "in his element" here as he struggles at night but is terrific during the day. In fact, he is a perfect 8-0 with a miniscule 1.98 ERA in nine afternoon starts this season! Baker also comes off a strong start. However, unlike Carmona, he has been awful when pitching during the afternoon. Indeed, in three daytime starts Baker has a terrible 10.05 ERA allowing opposing hitters a .414 batting average! Baker hasn't faced the Indians this season but is just 1-3 with a poor 5.47 ERA against them for his career. Carmona, on the other hand, is already 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in two starts against the Twins this season, holding them to a mere .179 batting average. Look for him to continue his daytime dominance as the Indians grab the rubber game and improve to 8-3 the last 11 games in this series.
Pitching Mismatch of the Month
Cleveland Indians
Ben Burns
UNDER reds/pirates
Game: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game Time: 8/5/2007 1:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. After a pair of "slug-fests" in the first two games of this series, including yesterday's extra inning marathon. Despite playing on a losing team, Gorzellany has been solid all season, going 9-6 with a 3.55 ERA. That includes a 3-1 mark with a 3.43 ERA during the afternoon. He's also been at his best at home, recording a 3.04 ERA in 10 starts here while holding opposing hitters to a mere .236 batting average. Backed by the third lowest scoring team in the majors, not surprisingly, Gorzellany has seen the UNDER go 9-6-1 his last 16 starts and 8-5-1 his last 14 at home. Arroyo is expected to get the call for the visitors. Yes, he's coming off a bad start. However, he tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings in his previous start. That was his second shutout (of at least seven innings) in his last four starts and marked the sixth time in his last eight starts that he had allowed three earned runs or less and seventh time in eight starts that he had allowed four earned runs or less. Dating back to last August and we find the UNDER at 12-7 the last 19 times that Arroyo started on the road. While Arroyo is currently expected to be the starter, note that I will still play the UNDER if Livingston gets the call instead. Livingston has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. The Pirates have seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 the last six Sundays. Look for today's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again.
Ben Burns
MLB Total
free pick LOS / 913 ARI Over 7.5
Analysis:
Both these pitchers are capable of dominating. Webb is the reigning NL Cy Young winner and is enjoying another strong season. Penny, his opponent, has a good chance of taking home this year's award. That being said, Penny hasn't been nearly as sharp lately and neither pitcher has performed very well when pitching during the afternoon. Penny is 12-2 with a 2.36 ERA at night, holding opponents to a .235 batting average. However, he has a poor 5.11 ERA in three daytime starts, allowing opposing hitters a much higher .306 average. Meanwhile, Webb has a 2.84 ERA during his 19 night starts, holding opposing hitters to a .231 average. He's just 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA during the day though, allowing opposing hitters to hit a healthy .304. After a pitcher's duel in Friday's opener, the bats came to life yesterday as the teams combined for a whopping 15 runs. That brought the "over" to 4-2 the last six series meetings and 9-5 the last 14 times that the Diamondbacks traveled to LA. Don't be surprised if they find away above the low number again this afternoon. Consider a play on the OVER
