CalvinHobbs wins 464k badbeat jackpot

Search

WVU

New member
Joined
Jan 20, 2000
Messages
11,648
Tokens
http://www.globalgamingnews.com/news_igaming/bad-beat-jackpot.html



Losing Poker Hand Paid Over $464,000


four-aces.jpg
Absolute Poker Pays Big For Losing Poker Hand
By Robert Arbizo
July 13, 2007
If there's one thing that poker players have in common, it is a fondness for telling stories of their poker exploits. Be it a large winning hand, or a winning hand that was cracked by an underdog, poker players love to talk about their more exciting experience. One player now has a whopper of a tale to tell after generating nearly half a million dollars with a losing poker hand.
As unbelievable as this may sound, that's exactly what happened yesterday at Absolute Poker according to a press release issued by the company. A player with a nearly unbeatable hand, Four Aces, was beaten at the table by a player holding a Royal Flush, the highest hand in poker. To the astonishment of the poker world, the player with the losing hand generated more than $464,000 in prize money, which is simply unheard of in the world of online poker.
The prize money was awarded because the losing player, identified by the screen name Calvinhobbes, was seated at one of Absolute Poker's "Bad Beat Jackpot" tables. These tables can be identified in the lobby of the poker room because they are marked as "Jackpot". An additional $0.50 is held from each qualifying hand on the jackpot tables, which is then contributed to a progressive jackpot. In order to win the jackpot, a player must have a hand with Four 8s or better, and be beaten. This scenario pays out the bad beat jackpot.
The odds of hitting a Royal Flush while playing Texas Holdem Poker are roughly 600,000:1. The odds of hitting one against Four Aces is nearly impossible to calculate. Needless to say, player Calvinhobbes felt as though he was in good shape holding a pair of pocket aces and seeing two other aces on the board.
As it turned out, someone else at the table had a better hand, but this is one time that Calvinhobbes was happy to lose. Knowing he was seated at a Bad Beat Jackpot table with a jackpot of $464,652, Calvinhobbes was probably quite happy to be taken down by the Royal Flush.
"With nearly one million hands dealt since the last hit on July 3rd, our Bad Beat Jackpot had climbed to over $464,000," stated David Clainer, Senior Vice President for Absolute Poker. "Online poker players flooded the site in record numbers for a shot at winning an unfathomable amount of cash just by losing a hand."
Of course, Calvinhobbes was not alone in this victory. Everyone involved shared in the wealth. For his role of being the losing player, Calvinhobbes was awarded $162,628.21. Everyone who participated in the hand that won the jackpot also split $162,628.21. The person who beat Calvinhobbes with the Royal Flush is happy to take home an extra $81,000, and everyone else received $20,000 each just for being at the table. Prior to this bad beat victory, the most recent person to win the bad beat jackpot collected their chips on July 3rd, after sharing a jackpot of $297,287.63
 

New member
Joined
Sep 13, 2005
Messages
2,369
Tokens
The way I understand it is that Hobbs only received around $200,000, the article states the bad beat generated $464,000 Hobbs didn't receive all of this.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 8, 2005
Messages
3,112
Tokens
The way I understand it is that Hobbs only received around $200,000, the article states the bad beat generated $464,000 Hobbs didn't receive all of this.
Ahem...try reading the article...:ohno:
 
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
44,775
Tokens
I play at Absolute quite a bit, and looked into playing these
badbeat tables. But, it's like playing the lottery and is
total negative EV.

Absolute takes 10% of the jackpot off the top for itself. Then it
takes another 30% to feed the next jackpot.

In this case the winner/loser got $162K. Absolute has a policy of
paying out a max of 5K a month. I wonder if they'll make
exceptions for these jackpot winners? Otherwise it will take them
3 years to get their cash.

Absolute takes an extra .50 from every raked hand on these tables
in order to feed the jackpot.

In order to qualify for the jackpot, you must lose with a hand of 8888
or better, and both players must use both their hole cards, and
4 people must have been dealt in the hand.

It would really suck if you qualified in every other way, but only
3 people were dealt in.
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
May 20, 2001
Messages
15,046
Tokens
Talk about a great marketing tool for Absolute poker!! They will get TONS of new clients just because of this
 

HAT

New member
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
1,502
Tokens
A player with a nearly unbeatable hand, Four Aces, was beaten at the table by a player holding a Royal Flush, the highest hand in poker.

5 ace deck?? :icon_conf :think2:
 

WVU

New member
Joined
Jan 20, 2000
Messages
11,648
Tokens
5 ace deck?? :icon_conf :think2:

I assume the guy was holding pocket aces and the board had 2 aces and 3 of the other player's royal cards which included one of those aces
 

HAT

New member
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
1,502
Tokens
I assume the guy was holding pocket aces and the board had 2 aces and 3 of the other player's royal cards which included one of those aces

LOL...I didn't even read the article to see that it was a Hold 'em game.

The picture of the quad A's threw me.
:ohno:
 

New member
Joined
Apr 25, 2005
Messages
204
Tokens
The odds of hitting a Royal Flush while playing Texas Holdem Poker are roughly 600,000:1.
This is incorrect. The odds of hitting a royal flush in 5 card draw are 649,739 : 1 against. The odds of hitting a bad beat jackpot-eligible royal flush (meaning that both hole cards are used to make the hand) would be only 64,973 : 1 against.

The odds of hitting one against Four Aces is nearly impossible to calculate.
Now that's a rather laughable slice of hyperbole.

It actually kind reminds me of that Ali G bit where he asks a panel of technophiles whether there might ever conceivably be a computer that would be be able to calculate 999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999 × 999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999. (Executive summary: yes.)

For quad aces to be beaten by a royal flush with both players using both hole cards to make the central hand, the quads player would by definition need to be dealt pocket Aces. This occurs with probability <sup>4</sup>/<sub>52 </sub>× <sup>3</sup>/<sub>51</sub> = <sup>1</sup>/<sub>221</sub>.

At this point there are 50 cards remaining in the deck, implying 50 × 49 = 2,450 two-card combinations. For the royal flush player to use both cards from his hand he would need to be dealt a suited KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, or JT, where the suit is different from the suit of either of the pocket aces. That's 6 different pairs of cards × 2 different suits × 2 ways of being dealt each pair of cards (in the case of KQ, for example, either the king could be dealt first or the queen) = 24 hand combinations. This implies a probability of <sup>24</sup>/<sub>2,450</sub>.

For the 5-card board, the 2 remaining aces need to be dealt as well as the 2 remaining cards that would complete the player's royal flush. The probability of this occurring would be COMBIN(5,4)<ub> × <sup>2 × 2</sup>/<sub>48 × 47 × 46 × 45</sub>.

So putting this all together we see the probability of a royal flush beating quad 4s with both players using both hole cards </ub>to make the central hand would be: <sup>1</sup>/<sub>221</sub> × <sup>24</sup>/<sub>2,450</sub> × COMBIN(5,4) × <sup>2 × 2</sup>/<sub>48 × 47 × 46 × 45</sub> = <sup>1</sup>/<sub>5,267,767,050</sub>.

Now this is a bit of a back of the envelope calculation, so I'll admit the possibility of a minor error in my calculations. (And if so, I'm sure someone here will be kind enough to bring it to my attention.) But the point is that the author's claim that "the odds of hitting [a royal flush] against Four Aces is nearly impossible to calculate" is asinine and suggests a mode of thought bordering on the mathematically illiterate.

That's not an admirable trait for a writer for an ostensibly gambling-savvy news organization.
 

Lieutenant Commander
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
971
Tokens
For the 5-card board, the 2 remaining aces need to be dealt as well as the 2 remaining cards that would complete the player's royal flush. The probability of this occurring would be COMBIN(5,4)<UB> × <SUP>2 × 2</SUP>/<SUB>48 × 47 × 46 × 45</SUB>.

It seems to me that we should account for 5! combinations instead of COMBIN(5,4) that makes the probability 1/126,426,409,200.
 

WVU

New member
Joined
Jan 20, 2000
Messages
11,648
Tokens
I posted this thread hoping that CalvinTY would fess up and tell his bad beat story
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
Maybe it is him ?

Look at his avatar !

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR align=middle><TD class=alt1Active id=u45335 align=left>CalvinTy RX Senior
</TD><TD class=alt2>2,930</TD><TD class=alt1>08-06-2007</TD><TD class=alt2>
image.php
</TD><TD class=alt1>June 25, 1975</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

WVU

New member
Joined
Jan 20, 2000
Messages
11,648
Tokens
This guy dropped a buttload playing higher stakes after he won the badbeat jackpot. Our Calvin is too bright for that
 

New member
Joined
Apr 25, 2005
Messages
204
Tokens
It seems to me that we should account for 5! combinations instead of COMBIN(5,4) that makes the probability 1/126,426,409,200.
Good catch.

There are COMBIN(48,5) possible boards, of which 4 cards are set, and the 5<sup>th</sup> card may be any one of the 44 cards remaining. So it actually should have read <sup>1</sup>/<sub>221</sub> × <sup>24</sup>/<sub>2,450 </sub>× <sup>5!</sup>/<sub>48 × 47 × 46 × 45</sub>, yielding a total probability of <sup>1</sup>/<sub>877,961,175</sub>.

That should do it.
 

Lieutenant Commander
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
971
Tokens
Good catch.

There are COMBIN(48,5) possible boards, of which 4 cards are set, and the 5<SUP>th</SUP> card may be any one of the 44 cards remaining. So it actually should have read <SUP>1</SUP>/<SUB>221</SUB> × <SUP>24</SUP>/<SUB>2,450 </SUB>× <SUP>5!</SUP>/<SUB>48 × 47 × 46 × 45</SUB>, yielding a total probability of <SUP>1</SUP>/<SUB>877,961,175</SUB>.

That should do it.

That number seems right.

Here is another step-by-step explanation.

a. 4/52 - any Ace
b. 3/51 - another Ace
c. 8/50 - TJQK of two unmatching suits
d. 3/49 - 3 remaining cards of a matching suit from step c
e. (48*47*46*45*44)/(5*4*3*2*1) - total number of boards that can be made out of 48 cards
f. 44 - the number of boards that have any of 44 "blank" cards and the four cards that must be there: two remaining aces and two cards left after step d.

4/52*3/51*8/50*3/49*1/48*2/47*3/46*4/45*5/44*44=1/877,961,175
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,193
Messages
13,449,343
Members
99,401
Latest member
gift-express
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com