The "Pinny lean" is much stronger for basketball and football, especially halftimes. Pinny lean in bases ain't shit, IMO. Pinny's team totals in bases are so beatable that it's comedy...always shaded on the low end. I've seen the Pinny lean run in the toilet for 2 or 3 months straight in bases. When groups come in on a side or total, sometimes the number moves so much that the value is actually on the other side. Baseball, it seems, is most beatable in April and September (especially Sept. when the books are more focused on football).
Thanks for the reply. I am starting to come to the same conclusion regarding bases. My tracking chart is a roller-coaster since April (best month was +53 units, worst -22 units), whereas it's a much smoother ride up in hockey (no losing month last season).
There's sometimes so many line moves in the last hour before gametime in bases, it's nuts. In hockey, all I need to do is check lines an hour before gametime, figure out the lean by averaging the lines at a bunch of books, weigh that against Pinny, bet the lean at the best price available, sit back and watch the Pinny line close at 5-25 cents worse than what I got. It's a lot more complicated in bases with lines moving in both directions all the time, and most books staying very very close to Pinny's numbers, usually shading the favorite a bit.
I'll have to try my luck with hoops and foots someday. Seems to be a lot more work involved with different pointspreads, waiting for good numbers to show up, etc.
I'm taking a break 'til hockey starts, my head's spinning after the last two days.
:smokingbb
There's sometimes so many line moves in the last hour before gametime in bases, it's nuts. In hockey, all I need to do is check lines an hour before gametime, figure out the lean by averaging the lines at a bunch of books, weigh that against Pinny, bet the lean at the best price available, sit back and watch the Pinny line close at 5-25 cents worse than what I got. It's a lot more complicated in bases with lines moving in both directions all the time, and most books staying very very close to Pinny's numbers, usually shading the favorite a bit.
I'll have to try my luck with hoops and foots someday. Seems to be a lot more work involved with different pointspreads, waiting for good numbers to show up, etc.
I'm taking a break 'til hockey starts, my head's spinning after the last two days.
:smokingbb
In hockey, I personally made 60 units flat-betting 1 unit per play, just from January to the very last playoff game. Playoffs were pretty much break-even. Backtesting up to September, I would've made 100 units if I started betting on the first day of the season. I can't wait to bet the entire 2007-08 season. I think I have it figured out pretty good.
I did not bet baseball until I figured out a way to guesstimate the Pinny lean in baseball, which happened in late May. I backtested up until April 1, and I would've made 110 units up to today, with the last 2 months being slight losers. Most of the profit came in April (53 units!), unfortunately for me. I'm personally down about 10 units this season.
:smoking:
Bear in mind that what constitutes a "pinny lean" is not an exact science, even less so in baseball.
I did not bet baseball until I figured out a way to guesstimate the Pinny lean in baseball, which happened in late May. I backtested up until April 1, and I would've made 110 units up to today, with the last 2 months being slight losers. Most of the profit came in April (53 units!), unfortunately for me. I'm personally down about 10 units this season.
:smoking:
Bear in mind that what constitutes a "pinny lean" is not an exact science, even less so in baseball.
