Service plays 8/10/07

Mike Rose

Buffalo Bills +6.0
Fri Aug 10 '07 8:00p

Unfortunately, I started off my 2007 NFLX campaign with a loss after I backed the Saints in their match-up with the Steelers in the Hall of Fame game. I figured HC Sean Payton would try to get his club off to a great start after going through their 2006 pre-season schedule with just one victory to show for it. They had a seasons worth of their schemes built into their roster, yet the same problems that hindered their performance a year ago popped up again. I sat in disgust, as Big Ben and the Steeler offense wasted no time in getting on the board by throwing deep on the Saints secondary. It was 7-0 before you could blink, and the rest of the game was just miserable to watch as the Saints offense and defense struggled throughout the rest of the game. Now, many will be quick to hop on the Saints and lay the points in this spot simply because they have a game under the belts already. That has been a losing proposition for years now as the linesmakers have caught on to this trend and adjusted the pointspread accordingly. The value is clearly with the Bills here who have said to put together some outstanding practice time in camp to date, and they come into this game hungry looking to show they can hang with a team predicted to be an NFC Championship contender. The Bills were a perfect 2-0 ATS on the road in the pre-season under HC Dick Jauron last year, so grab the points here and bank on JQP’s futility.




Ben Burns

Game: New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aug 10 2007 7:30PM

Prediction: over

Reason: I feel that Friday's Tampa Bay New England "total," which currently sits below the key number of 34, seems a little on the low side. Both teams have shown a tendency to score a reasonable number of points in their preseason opener. Let's take a look at their opening games from the last four preseason campaigns. In 2003, the Patriots scored 26 points vs. the Giants while Tampa tallied 20 vs. Miami. The following year, in 2004, the Bucs again scored 20 points in their preason opener (vs. Cincinnati) while New England posted 24 points vs. the Eagles. Two years ago, the Patriots scored 24 points vs. Cincinnati while Tampa Bay scored 20 points (vs. Tennessee) for their third straight opener. Last season, New England scored 23 while Tampa slipped to 16. Despite last season's lower score, the Bucs have still managed an average of 19 points in their last four preason openers while the Pats have averaged greater than 24. The teams will only need to average 17 each to finish above Friday's low number. Consider a play on the OVER


Ben Burns

NFLx Non-Conf. GOY

TAMPA BAY

Game: New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 8/10/2007 7:30:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Due to their dominance this millennium, the Patriots are always a popular "public" pick and often see rather inflated lines. They've received a lot of attention in the offseason, due in large part to the signing of Randy Moss, and I believe that has helped to give us excellent value on their opponent, Tampa Bay, for Friday's opener. It's important to know coach's and team's past preseason tendencies, not just for the exhibition season as a whole, but also for specific individual weeks. Looking back to last season and we find that the Pats played in Atlanta for their preseason opener. They ended up losing that game by three points. However, a closer look shows that they were down by 10 entering the fourth quarter and that they never held a lead at any part of the game. Looking back at the Patriots' opener the previous season and we find that they earned a victory at Cincinnati. The Pats had some extra motivation for that game though as the Bengals had crushed them 31-3 the previous year, which happened to also be New England's first road game of the preseason. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has been dominant every year (5-0 ATS last five years) in their preseason opener. In 2003, the Bucs won by one point as road underdogs at Miami. Note that they were leading 20-6 entering the fourth quarter. They also won their home opener (10-6 vs. Jax) the same season. In 2004, the Bucs won 20-6 vs. Cincinnati. In 2005, they defeated the Titans by three points in their preseason opener. In last season's opening preseason contest, here at home, the Bucs dominated the Jets by a score of 16-3. In addition to the Bucs' tendency to win their opener, I also feel that their quarterback rotation (Simms, Gradkowski, Garcia, McCown) is signficantly stronger than New England's rotation of Brady, Cassel and Gutierrez, considering that Brady won't see much action. In addition to playing at home, the Bucs are off a disappointing year and have a lot more to prove. Look for them to be the hungrier team and for that to result in a victory. NFLx Non-Conf. GOY




Michael Cannon Money Train


20 Dime

VIKINGS

Take the Vikings as the small home favorite tonight over the Rams.
Brad Childress did a fine job in his first campaign as Minnesota’s coach in the preseason last year, going 2-1-1 SU (3-1 ATS). He’s anointed Tavaris Jackson as his new starting quarterback, but his time will be brief as he’s slated to play somewhere between eight and 15 plays.
It shouldn’t matter because the Rams have struggled during the preseason, especially on the road. St. Louis is just 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS on the road in August since 2005.
The Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 preseason games overall. They are 5-1 SU in August at home going back to 2003 (4-2 ATS).
I like the Vikings to come out rolling tonight in their preseason home opener, so take them minus the small number over the Rams.



10 Dime

FALCONS

Take the Falcons plus the points tonight in the Meadowlands against the Jets.
The Bobby Petrino era starts tonight for Atlanta and with all the controversy surrounding the suspended Michael Vick, he needs to get off to a good start.
I believe he will.
Joey Harrington will start at quarterback for the Falcons and he’ll be followed by Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley and possibly Lang Campbell. With the way Petrino ran his offense at Louisville, look for plenty of passes tonight from the Falcons.
The Jets were a surprise playoff team in 2006, but they didn’t fare well in the preseason last year, going 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS).
Atlanta is 15-7 ATS in its past 22 preseason games on the road.
Take the Falcons plus the points as they stay within the number and stand a good chance at pulling off the outright win in Petrino’s first game.



5 Dime

INDIANS (With Hughes and Carmona as listed pitchers)

Take the Indians as the home chalk tonight over the Yankees.
I know New York has been pounding the ball recently, but tonight they’re going against one of the better pitchers in the American League.
Fausto Carmona has pitched great his last three starts but has received little run support. He’s just 1-2 despite a sparkling 1.23 ERA over that span.
The right-hander should get some backing from his offense against New York starter Phil Hughes.
The Yankee rookie is 1-1 on the year with a 5.87 ERA in three games. He was touched for six runs in just 4 2-3 innings his last time out and didn’t get a decision as the Yankees stormed back to throttle the Royals, 16-8.
If Hughes pitches like that again tonight I guarantee you he’ll get the loss because Carmona isn’t going to get shelled.
Take Cleveland as they grab the home win.


PIRATES (With Morris and Ortiz as listed pitchers)

Take the Pirates for the road win tonight over the Giants.
I know the Bucos are playing terrible right now, but newly acquired Matt Morris should give them a lift tonight against his former team.
The right-hander made no secret his desire to get out of San Francisco and I like him to back it up with a solid outing tonight.
The Giants aren’t world-beaters themselves and they will send Russ Ortiz to the mound. The right-hander has lost a lot of velocity on his fastball and is nothing more than a fringe starter at best.
He hasn’t pitched since June 4 and he’s only getting the start because Noah Lowry has tightness in his forearm.
Take the Pirates as they grab the road win.

patriots12 said:

Ben Burns

NFLx Non-Conf. GOY

TAMPA BAY

Game: New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 8/10/2007 7:30:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Due to their dominance this millennium, the Patriots are always a popular "public" pick and often see rather inflated lines. They've received a lot of attention in the offseason, due in large part to the signing of Randy Moss, and I believe that has helped to give us excellent value on their opponent, Tampa Bay, for Friday's opener. It's important to know coach's and team's past preseason tendencies, not just for the exhibition season as a whole, but also for specific individual weeks. Looking back to last season and we find that the Pats played in Atlanta for their preseason opener. They ended up losing that game by three points. However, a closer look shows that they were down by 10 entering the fourth quarter and that they never held a lead at any part of the game. Looking back at the Patriots' opener the previous season and we find that they earned a victory at Cincinnati. The Pats had some extra motivation for that game though as the Bengals had crushed them 31-3 the previous year, which happened to also be New England's first road game of the preseason. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has been dominant every year (5-0 ATS last five years) in their preseason opener. In 2003, the Bucs won by one point as road underdogs at Miami. Note that they were leading 20-6 entering the fourth quarter. They also won their home opener (10-6 vs. Jax) the same season. In 2004, the Bucs won 20-6 vs. Cincinnati. In 2005, they defeated the Titans by three points in their preseason opener. In last season's opening preseason contest, here at home, the Bucs dominated the Jets by a score of 16-3. In addition to the Bucs' tendency to win their opener, I also feel that their quarterback rotation (Simms, Gradkowski, Garcia, McCown) is signficantly stronger than New England's rotation of Brady, Cassel and Gutierrez, considering that Brady won't see much action. In addition to playing at home, the Bucs are off a disappointing year and have a lot more to prove. Look for them to be the hungrier team and for that to result in a victory. NFLx Non-Conf. GOY

Click to expand...

ROFLLL.. nice game of the year in Pre-Season Week 1. LOLOLOLOLOLOL.

BIG AL'S AMERICAN LEAGUE B-L-O-W-O-U-T SUPERPLAY
Al McMordie is on a MAJOR LEAGUE ROLL on the basepaths, as he CASHED his NL East Total of the Month on the 'under' in the Phillies/Marlins game. Big Al's now 16-6 his last 22 Baseball Plays here at the Online Store, and is unloading on an American League Superplay tonight. Get this B-L-O-W-O-U-T WINNER right now.
Price: $15.00

Rangers

PPoD

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston Red Sox(-110) over Baltimore Orioles
Pitcher: D MATSUZAKA
Game time: 4:00:00 PM(PST)

Stan Sharp

Double Dime

Pittsburgh Pirates

PPP (Gavazzi)

3% Buffalo



Wunderdog

2 Units BUFFALO BILLS +6

Trey Johnson

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, August 10, 2007


#270 Tampa Bay (-) over New England at 7:30 PM EST
Tampa and New England have faced each other five times in the pre-season since 1983 with Tampa holding a 5-0 ATS for 100% advantage. While Tampa likes to win these games the Patriots don’t care too much about the pre-season. Since 1983 the Pats are a dismal 8-13-3 ATS for 38% in the pre-season. With nothing to prove the Pats will use this game to take a look at the guys fighting to make the team. Tampa on the other hand will take a little more time to work out the kinks and get their guys off to a good start for the season. Grudens gang starts the season off on the right foot with a win tonight.

Play Tampa (-)

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Ben Burns



RANGERS

Tampa Bay Devil Rays vs. Texas Rangers Game Time: 8/10/2007 8:35 PM

Prediction: Texas Rangers Reason: I'm laying the short price with TEXAS. The Devil Rays have had some success against the league's "better" teams and they come off back to back wins over the defending AL Champs. However, they've had a lot more trouble with the league's "weaker" teams and I expect them to stumble this evening. Indeed, Tampa is 2-10 the last 12 times it faced a team with a losing record and an awful 13-34 for the season. The Rays are also just 1-6 the last seven times they faced the Rangers on the road and 4-14 their last 18 games here. Sonnanstine gets the call for the visitors and he's been pounded lately. In fact, he is 0-2 with a horrid 8.81 ERA and 1.775 WHIP his last three starts. Most recently, he gave up a whopping seven runs while lasting a mere 3 2/3 innings. Note that Sonnanstine will be supported by a TB bullpen which has a brutal 8.54 ERA and 2.099 WHIP on the road for the season. On the the other hand, the Texas bullpen has a solid 3.56 ERA and 1.312 WHIP at home for the season. McCarthy gets the start for the home team and he's been extremely solid lately, recording a 3.06 ERA in his last three starts. In fact, he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts! McCarthy has already turned in a pair of quality starts vs. the Devil Rays including an 8-4 win here back in the spring. Additionally, the Rangers have been terrific as slight home favorites going 11-3 as home favorites of -125 or less. Look for them to improve on those numbers by starting this series off with a victory.



INDIANS

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians Game Time: 8/10/2007 7:05 PM

Prediction: Cleveland Indians Reason: I'm laying the short price with CLEVELAND. For starters, the Indians are an excellent 37-22 (+3.6) at home this season. Meanwhile, after getting blown out at Toronto on Wednesday, the Yankees are now a money-burning 26-30 (-14.2!) on the road. The Yankees averaged 5.1 runs in those 36 road games, while hitting .276. The Indians have been a little better than that at home, averaging 5.6 runs per game here while hitting .280. More importantly, the Indians should have a major advantage on the mound this evening. Philip Hughes has made only three starts this season and has an ugly 5.87 ERA. In his most recent start, last week vs. KC, he was pounded for six earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings. Carmona, on the other hand, has an awesome 1.23 ERA his last three starts. For the season he is 7-3 (Indians are 8-3) at home with a 3.57 ERA. Overall, Carmona is 13-6 with a stellar 3.17 ERA, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts while pitching at least seven innings in five straight outings. Carmona also pitched well in his lone start against the Yankees, allowing two runs through six innings. Look for him to outpitch Hughes this evening as the Yankees fall to 7-13 when playing on a Friday.

AL Game of the Month
Cleveland Indians





PHILLIES

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game Time: 8/10/2007 7:35: PM

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Reason: I'm laying the price with PHILADELPHIA. I expect the Phillies, who are 8-2 their last 10 games against left-handed starters, to have the advantage in tonight's battle of southpaws. James has given up eight runs in 10 innings over his last two starts. That's a 7.20 ERA. On the other hand, Hamels has a stellar 2.86 ERA and 0.864 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, Hamels is 12-5 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.139 WHIP. The Phillies score 5.5 runs vs. left-handers while the Braves average only 4.3. Look for Hamels to outpitch James as the Phillies improve to 5-1 the last six games in this series and 15-4 the last 19 times that Hamels started at home.

Personal Favorite
Philadelphia Phillies

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Benjamin Lee Eckstein

Ben Lee is 4-0 on the week.

Rockies -$150



Mighty Quinn

Mighty Q is 3-1 for the week.

Tigers -$140


HONDO

10 units Orioles
10 units BlueJays

How about Sebastians plays for tonight.
Thanks.

Cappers Access

Bills


Corporate Sports

MLB Texas
MLB NYY/Cle Over
NFL NYJ

Charlie Sports

nfl. rams @ vikings under 35( 500*)

nfl. jets-3' (30*)

nfl. buffalo+6 (20*)

mlb. houston-110 (20*)

mlb. cleveland-120 (10*)

nfl. vikings-1 (10*) Bonus Play

Frank Rosenthal

FRIDAY, AUGUST 10, 2007

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
960 CARDS+105 SB
961 CUBS OVER 10 SB+
965 PIRATES OVER 9 SB+
970 TRIBE-120 SB
973 JAYS-120 SB
976 CWS-125 SB
979 TWINS+180 SB
NFL PRESEASON
268 JETS-3.5 SB
272 SAINTS-5.5 SB+
274 VIKES UNDER 35.5 SB+
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Greg Shaker (3-1 L4)

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros - Astros (Bush/Jennings) -106 | Unit Value: 1

Game Date: 8/10/2007
Note: I am going to be very brief on this play as I am spending a lot of time preparing for the Football Season, which should allow us to get off to my usual very good start. This game in Houston tonight is a lot about the Brewers not performing well of late, the Cubs Footsteps that they hear, and their lack of road success over the last 3 years. This team is playing scared, and there is no doubt about that. They finished last year just 27-54 away from Miller Park, and this year they continue to mirror that performance. In every offensive, and pitching department they are down when they travel and that does include what Bush has done this year. Dave is allowing hitters a .308 batting average when pitching on the road and we cannot expect him to get much relief when he leaves this game with Milwaukee second line throwers also not performing well on the road and most recently. They did get a day off and that is at least going to give this Pen some time off, but they have been under the gun a lot in the last 3 series and should be weary at the moment. I am not going to try to convince you that Jennings is going to have a good start but he does throw much better at home despite his last game that zoomed his numbers sky high. The Astros are striking the ball much better these days and they are coming off a sweep of the Cubs. They have a much better home record and in fact are 6 games over the .500 mark playing at Minutemaid this year. In many respects they are just like the Brew Crew with much better home stats than on the road. This Park is not one of the better HR hitting venues of the league and that is what Milwaukee brings best to the table. Milwaukee has lost the last 6 away from Miller, and 8 of 9. They have not been a good Underdog Play this year and are just 8-31 last 39 in this situation. Much like all other away venues, they have not had spiffy figures at this Park either, managing to win just 15 times over the last 53 meetings here. That monkey is still riding their back and I am going to ride that same monkey again tonight.

Players of America <hr style="color: rgb(168, 168, 168);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> 1* rating on BOSTON
BOTH MATSUZAK/BEDARD



The Red Sox enter this game in 1st place in the AL, and a deserving first place at that. With one of the most powerful, consistent pitching rotations in the league, their often square bettors delight in Vegas as huge favorites. However tonight, the tables are turned a bit. Dice-K grips the threads tonight for the BoSox with astonishing figures. He won his last outing in a strong 7 innings pitched, and struck out ten hitters. In his last three games, he is 2-1 with a petite 1.77 ERA. In those three games, he has pitched over 20 innings and struck out 21 (more than one batter per inning). Daisuke Matsuzaka is a premier pitcher in the Majors this year and his numbers back that quote up. He is 13-8 with a 3.70 ERA in 23 games. The righty has K`d 152 this year alone in 151 innings (again, more than one strikeout per inning). The pitching stats don't stop there however, as the lefty Erik Bedard takes the mound with better than average stats too.

Bedard won his last outing giving up three runs and striking out 11. He is an impressive 12-4 on the year with just over a 3.00 ERA in 24 games. In those 24 games he has given up over 120 hits, 55 runs (53 of which earned) and nearly 20 long balls. He has also walked nearly 50 batters. Bedard is a career 4-4 versus the Red Sox with over a 5.00 ERA in 9 games. He has given up 45 hits against this franchise and almost as many earned runs. His walk to strikeout ratio is almost equivalent also. Aside from these two aces taking the mound tonight, both with terrific numbers, there is another thing that happens in this game of hardball...offense.

Aside from fairly evenly pitching statistics, the offensive ones are quite distinctive. Boston continues to be one of the most explosive offenses in the league with power hitters like Ortiz and Ramirez. Ortiz is batting .667 this year versus Bedard alone. Role players like Alex Cora, Coco Crisp, Pedroia, Varitek and Youkilis all have consistency with the sticks against these Orioles. On the opposite side, this Orioles squad has yet to see a toss from Matsuzaka ever. We expect this game to heavily favor the Red Sox not only defensively, but most definitely on the offensive end as well. With that being said, this match up is well worthy of a 1* wager on Boston at nearly even money.

1* rating on SAN DIEGO
BOTH LEDEZMA/BELISLE


The Padres enter this event tonight in 2nd place in the NL West. Their facing a streaking Reds squad who has been hot at home of late. The Padres have lost back to back games and are in the process of looking for some type of "redemption." There is no better time and place than against the 5th placed team in it's division. The Reds are flying high after taking a few from the first place squad Dodgers, but that feeling isn't going to last forever. The untouted Wilfredo Ledezma steps on the mound tonight in hopes of getting his Padres back on the winning path. He is 3-3 on the year with a 5.00 ERA. While his numbers aren't comparable to any ace, they are a bit better than the fellow Matt Belisle. Belisle for the Reds is 6-8 on the year with nearly a 5.40 ERA. In his last three events he is 1-2 with a 6.20 ERA. In those games he's struck out just 8 batters and walked half of that. On the season he has given up 161 hits and almost 20 dingers. 76 earned runs is also etched in his stat line. Versus San Diego, Belisle is 0-2 career with an 8.31 ERA. Just this year versus the Pads, Belisle is 0-1 with an ERA just shy of 13.00 in 5 innings pitched! Again, in his career, Belisle has pitched a total of 8 innings versus San Diego...giving up 8 earned runs, 15 hits and 2 walks. This pitching duel alone is enough to make me want to lay my money with the better team tonight. That better team is the San Diego Padres.

1* rating on MILWAUKEE
BOTH BUSH/JENNINGS



As we look to regroup from our previous loss with the Brewers, we find ourselves in a bit of a "better" situation tonight. The Brewers remain in first place in the NL Central despite their recent landslide of four games. Houston, much like the Reds, are riding high on a mini three game streak. That streak comes to an end tonight in front of their home crowd. A man by name of David Bush will start things off in the center for Milwaukee. He is 9-8 on the year, but a career best 4-1 versus the Astros of Houston. In those five games versus the Astros, Bush has pitched 44 innings and has a firm 3.45 ERA. His opponent tonight is Jason Jennings. Jason, the righty, is a meager 2-7 on the year with a 6.11 ERA in sixteen games. This means in nearly half of his outings he has had the no decision, leaving it to his pen. In his last three games, Jennings is 1-1 with a 13.15 ERA. No, that is not a typo. A 13.15 ERA! He has walked just as many as he's struck out (5). This year Jennings is 0-1 versus the Brew Crew. That game he gave up three earned runs.

The Brewer's offense has had no issues slapping this guy when he throws. Ryan Braun is a consistent .500 lifetime versus Jennings, and Craig Counsell and Prince Fielder combine to bat right around .400 against him. We're confident, again getting nearly even money, in placing a 1* on the Brewers. The Houston Astros have no after-life to look forward to, and this season has been a drag. The Brewers on the other hand are chasing a pennant, and big road win will shut the lids of many critics they have.

1* rating on SEATTLE
BOTH WASHBURN/VAZQUEZ

Any Larry Ness or Sebastian?

MattWrobelSports

Comp - Detroit Tigers (-125)

Larry Ness

COMP: New York Yankees +110 (MLB)

Dave Malinksy

4* NY METS over FLORIDA

Some pitchers get called up because they are on quite a run in the Minor League’s, and apparently the notion that Daniel Barone has gone 7-0 for the Florida AAA team at Albuquerque is influencing the markets to the point at which a First Place vs. Last Place matchup is being sold cheaply. And that is a wrong read of Barone.

In the long-run we are not sure if he is much of a prospect or not, and he started this season at AA, not the higher level. But because of so much attrition with the parent club (Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco injured, Byung-Hyun Kim traded), someone had to step into the rotation tonight. That someone is Barone, and yes he is indeed 7-0 in decisions at AAA. But here is the rest – his ERA is only a mediocre 4.09 and he shows little pop in his arm, with only 31 strikeouts in 61.2 innings. As for current form, he has been rocked for 16 runs on 29 hits over 22 innings of his last four starts, but was fortunate to not get tagged with a ‘W’ in any of them. Now he has to make his first Major League start in front of one of the toughest crowds in the sport, and also against an unfriendly lineup that has half of the position players hitting over .300, and none under .250. And to make matters worse, he faces a team that not only leads the N.L. in stolen bases, but is doing it by a huge margin – New York has 45 more thefts than anyone else. That is not easy on the nerves of a pitcher who may not belong here in the first place.

We cashed an underdog ticket with Brian Lawrence at Milwaukee in his first outing, and while his stuff was nothing special, it was what we wanted to see from him – he was throwing strikes. He did not issue a walk of the 22 batters that he faced, which continues his career pattern and also his solid rehab form in the Minor’s earlier this season. He can induce a free-swinging Marlins team into jumping out at a lot of bad pitches, and with the Met defense behind him contact turns into outs – they are #1 in the Major League’s in turning batted balls into outs, by a wide margin over #2, and only the Rockies and Pirates have fewer errors in the National League. With a major bullpen edge to lock it down in the late innings, we have a favorite being sold far too short in the marketplace in this one.