Mike Rose
Buffalo Bills +6.0
Fri Aug 10 '07 8:00p
Unfortunately, I started off my 2007 NFLX campaign with a loss after I backed the Saints in their match-up with the Steelers in the Hall of Fame game. I figured HC Sean Payton would try to get his club off to a great start after going through their 2006 pre-season schedule with just one victory to show for it. They had a seasons worth of their schemes built into their roster, yet the same problems that hindered their performance a year ago popped up again. I sat in disgust, as Big Ben and the Steeler offense wasted no time in getting on the board by throwing deep on the Saints secondary. It was 7-0 before you could blink, and the rest of the game was just miserable to watch as the Saints offense and defense struggled throughout the rest of the game. Now, many will be quick to hop on the Saints and lay the points in this spot simply because they have a game under the belts already. That has been a losing proposition for years now as the linesmakers have caught on to this trend and adjusted the pointspread accordingly. The value is clearly with the Bills here who have said to put together some outstanding practice time in camp to date, and they come into this game hungry looking to show they can hang with a team predicted to be an NFC Championship contender. The Bills were a perfect 2-0 ATS on the road in the pre-season under HC Dick Jauron last year, so grab the points here and bank on JQP’s futility.
Ben Burns
Game: New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aug 10 2007 7:30PM
Prediction: over
Reason: I feel that Friday's Tampa Bay New England "total," which currently sits below the key number of 34, seems a little on the low side. Both teams have shown a tendency to score a reasonable number of points in their preseason opener. Let's take a look at their opening games from the last four preseason campaigns. In 2003, the Patriots scored 26 points vs. the Giants while Tampa tallied 20 vs. Miami. The following year, in 2004, the Bucs again scored 20 points in their preason opener (vs. Cincinnati) while New England posted 24 points vs. the Eagles. Two years ago, the Patriots scored 24 points vs. Cincinnati while Tampa Bay scored 20 points (vs. Tennessee) for their third straight opener. Last season, New England scored 23 while Tampa slipped to 16. Despite last season's lower score, the Bucs have still managed an average of 19 points in their last four preason openers while the Pats have averaged greater than 24. The teams will only need to average 17 each to finish above Friday's low number. Consider a play on the OVER
Ben Burns
NFLx Non-Conf. GOY
TAMPA BAY
Game: New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 8/10/2007 7:30:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Due to their dominance this millennium, the Patriots are always a popular "public" pick and often see rather inflated lines. They've received a lot of attention in the offseason, due in large part to the signing of Randy Moss, and I believe that has helped to give us excellent value on their opponent, Tampa Bay, for Friday's opener. It's important to know coach's and team's past preseason tendencies, not just for the exhibition season as a whole, but also for specific individual weeks. Looking back to last season and we find that the Pats played in Atlanta for their preseason opener. They ended up losing that game by three points. However, a closer look shows that they were down by 10 entering the fourth quarter and that they never held a lead at any part of the game. Looking back at the Patriots' opener the previous season and we find that they earned a victory at Cincinnati. The Pats had some extra motivation for that game though as the Bengals had crushed them 31-3 the previous year, which happened to also be New England's first road game of the preseason. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has been dominant every year (5-0 ATS last five years) in their preseason opener. In 2003, the Bucs won by one point as road underdogs at Miami. Note that they were leading 20-6 entering the fourth quarter. They also won their home opener (10-6 vs. Jax) the same season. In 2004, the Bucs won 20-6 vs. Cincinnati. In 2005, they defeated the Titans by three points in their preseason opener. In last season's opening preseason contest, here at home, the Bucs dominated the Jets by a score of 16-3. In addition to the Bucs' tendency to win their opener, I also feel that their quarterback rotation (Simms, Gradkowski, Garcia, McCown) is signficantly stronger than New England's rotation of Brady, Cassel and Gutierrez, considering that Brady won't see much action. In addition to playing at home, the Bucs are off a disappointing year and have a lot more to prove. Look for them to be the hungrier team and for that to result in a victory. NFLx Non-Conf. GOY
Michael Cannon Money Train
20 Dime
VIKINGS
Take the Vikings as the small home favorite tonight over the Rams.
Brad Childress did a fine job in his first campaign as Minnesota’s coach in the preseason last year, going 2-1-1 SU (3-1 ATS). He’s anointed Tavaris Jackson as his new starting quarterback, but his time will be brief as he’s slated to play somewhere between eight and 15 plays.
It shouldn’t matter because the Rams have struggled during the preseason, especially on the road. St. Louis is just 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS on the road in August since 2005.
The Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 preseason games overall. They are 5-1 SU in August at home going back to 2003 (4-2 ATS).
I like the Vikings to come out rolling tonight in their preseason home opener, so take them minus the small number over the Rams.
10 Dime
FALCONS
Take the Falcons plus the points tonight in the Meadowlands against the Jets.
The Bobby Petrino era starts tonight for Atlanta and with all the controversy surrounding the suspended Michael Vick, he needs to get off to a good start.
I believe he will.
Joey Harrington will start at quarterback for the Falcons and he’ll be followed by Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley and possibly Lang Campbell. With the way Petrino ran his offense at Louisville, look for plenty of passes tonight from the Falcons.
The Jets were a surprise playoff team in 2006, but they didn’t fare well in the preseason last year, going 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS).
Atlanta is 15-7 ATS in its past 22 preseason games on the road.
Take the Falcons plus the points as they stay within the number and stand a good chance at pulling off the outright win in Petrino’s first game.
5 Dime
INDIANS (With Hughes and Carmona as listed pitchers)
Take the Indians as the home chalk tonight over the Yankees.
I know New York has been pounding the ball recently, but tonight they’re going against one of the better pitchers in the American League.
Fausto Carmona has pitched great his last three starts but has received little run support. He’s just 1-2 despite a sparkling 1.23 ERA over that span.
The right-hander should get some backing from his offense against New York starter Phil Hughes.
The Yankee rookie is 1-1 on the year with a 5.87 ERA in three games. He was touched for six runs in just 4 2-3 innings his last time out and didn’t get a decision as the Yankees stormed back to throttle the Royals, 16-8.
If Hughes pitches like that again tonight I guarantee you he’ll get the loss because Carmona isn’t going to get shelled.
Take Cleveland as they grab the home win.
PIRATES (With Morris and Ortiz as listed pitchers)
Take the Pirates for the road win tonight over the Giants.
I know the Bucos are playing terrible right now, but newly acquired Matt Morris should give them a lift tonight against his former team.
The right-hander made no secret his desire to get out of San Francisco and I like him to back it up with a solid outing tonight.
The Giants aren’t world-beaters themselves and they will send Russ Ortiz to the mound. The right-hander has lost a lot of velocity on his fastball and is nothing more than a fringe starter at best.
He hasn’t pitched since June 4 and he’s only getting the start because Noah Lowry has tightness in his forearm.
Take the Pirates as they grab the road win.
Buffalo Bills +6.0
Fri Aug 10 '07 8:00p
Unfortunately, I started off my 2007 NFLX campaign with a loss after I backed the Saints in their match-up with the Steelers in the Hall of Fame game. I figured HC Sean Payton would try to get his club off to a great start after going through their 2006 pre-season schedule with just one victory to show for it. They had a seasons worth of their schemes built into their roster, yet the same problems that hindered their performance a year ago popped up again. I sat in disgust, as Big Ben and the Steeler offense wasted no time in getting on the board by throwing deep on the Saints secondary. It was 7-0 before you could blink, and the rest of the game was just miserable to watch as the Saints offense and defense struggled throughout the rest of the game. Now, many will be quick to hop on the Saints and lay the points in this spot simply because they have a game under the belts already. That has been a losing proposition for years now as the linesmakers have caught on to this trend and adjusted the pointspread accordingly. The value is clearly with the Bills here who have said to put together some outstanding practice time in camp to date, and they come into this game hungry looking to show they can hang with a team predicted to be an NFC Championship contender. The Bills were a perfect 2-0 ATS on the road in the pre-season under HC Dick Jauron last year, so grab the points here and bank on JQP’s futility.
Ben Burns
Game: New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aug 10 2007 7:30PM
Prediction: over
Reason: I feel that Friday's Tampa Bay New England "total," which currently sits below the key number of 34, seems a little on the low side. Both teams have shown a tendency to score a reasonable number of points in their preseason opener. Let's take a look at their opening games from the last four preseason campaigns. In 2003, the Patriots scored 26 points vs. the Giants while Tampa tallied 20 vs. Miami. The following year, in 2004, the Bucs again scored 20 points in their preason opener (vs. Cincinnati) while New England posted 24 points vs. the Eagles. Two years ago, the Patriots scored 24 points vs. Cincinnati while Tampa Bay scored 20 points (vs. Tennessee) for their third straight opener. Last season, New England scored 23 while Tampa slipped to 16. Despite last season's lower score, the Bucs have still managed an average of 19 points in their last four preason openers while the Pats have averaged greater than 24. The teams will only need to average 17 each to finish above Friday's low number. Consider a play on the OVER
Ben Burns
NFLx Non-Conf. GOY
TAMPA BAY
Game: New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 8/10/2007 7:30:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Due to their dominance this millennium, the Patriots are always a popular "public" pick and often see rather inflated lines. They've received a lot of attention in the offseason, due in large part to the signing of Randy Moss, and I believe that has helped to give us excellent value on their opponent, Tampa Bay, for Friday's opener. It's important to know coach's and team's past preseason tendencies, not just for the exhibition season as a whole, but also for specific individual weeks. Looking back to last season and we find that the Pats played in Atlanta for their preseason opener. They ended up losing that game by three points. However, a closer look shows that they were down by 10 entering the fourth quarter and that they never held a lead at any part of the game. Looking back at the Patriots' opener the previous season and we find that they earned a victory at Cincinnati. The Pats had some extra motivation for that game though as the Bengals had crushed them 31-3 the previous year, which happened to also be New England's first road game of the preseason. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has been dominant every year (5-0 ATS last five years) in their preseason opener. In 2003, the Bucs won by one point as road underdogs at Miami. Note that they were leading 20-6 entering the fourth quarter. They also won their home opener (10-6 vs. Jax) the same season. In 2004, the Bucs won 20-6 vs. Cincinnati. In 2005, they defeated the Titans by three points in their preseason opener. In last season's opening preseason contest, here at home, the Bucs dominated the Jets by a score of 16-3. In addition to the Bucs' tendency to win their opener, I also feel that their quarterback rotation (Simms, Gradkowski, Garcia, McCown) is signficantly stronger than New England's rotation of Brady, Cassel and Gutierrez, considering that Brady won't see much action. In addition to playing at home, the Bucs are off a disappointing year and have a lot more to prove. Look for them to be the hungrier team and for that to result in a victory. NFLx Non-Conf. GOY
Michael Cannon Money Train
20 Dime
VIKINGS
Take the Vikings as the small home favorite tonight over the Rams.
Brad Childress did a fine job in his first campaign as Minnesota’s coach in the preseason last year, going 2-1-1 SU (3-1 ATS). He’s anointed Tavaris Jackson as his new starting quarterback, but his time will be brief as he’s slated to play somewhere between eight and 15 plays.
It shouldn’t matter because the Rams have struggled during the preseason, especially on the road. St. Louis is just 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS on the road in August since 2005.
The Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 preseason games overall. They are 5-1 SU in August at home going back to 2003 (4-2 ATS).
I like the Vikings to come out rolling tonight in their preseason home opener, so take them minus the small number over the Rams.
10 Dime
FALCONS
Take the Falcons plus the points tonight in the Meadowlands against the Jets.
The Bobby Petrino era starts tonight for Atlanta and with all the controversy surrounding the suspended Michael Vick, he needs to get off to a good start.
I believe he will.
Joey Harrington will start at quarterback for the Falcons and he’ll be followed by Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley and possibly Lang Campbell. With the way Petrino ran his offense at Louisville, look for plenty of passes tonight from the Falcons.
The Jets were a surprise playoff team in 2006, but they didn’t fare well in the preseason last year, going 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS).
Atlanta is 15-7 ATS in its past 22 preseason games on the road.
Take the Falcons plus the points as they stay within the number and stand a good chance at pulling off the outright win in Petrino’s first game.
5 Dime
INDIANS (With Hughes and Carmona as listed pitchers)
Take the Indians as the home chalk tonight over the Yankees.
I know New York has been pounding the ball recently, but tonight they’re going against one of the better pitchers in the American League.
Fausto Carmona has pitched great his last three starts but has received little run support. He’s just 1-2 despite a sparkling 1.23 ERA over that span.
The right-hander should get some backing from his offense against New York starter Phil Hughes.
The Yankee rookie is 1-1 on the year with a 5.87 ERA in three games. He was touched for six runs in just 4 2-3 innings his last time out and didn’t get a decision as the Yankees stormed back to throttle the Royals, 16-8.
If Hughes pitches like that again tonight I guarantee you he’ll get the loss because Carmona isn’t going to get shelled.
Take Cleveland as they grab the home win.
PIRATES (With Morris and Ortiz as listed pitchers)
Take the Pirates for the road win tonight over the Giants.
I know the Bucos are playing terrible right now, but newly acquired Matt Morris should give them a lift tonight against his former team.
The right-hander made no secret his desire to get out of San Francisco and I like him to back it up with a solid outing tonight.
The Giants aren’t world-beaters themselves and they will send Russ Ortiz to the mound. The right-hander has lost a lot of velocity on his fastball and is nothing more than a fringe starter at best.
He hasn’t pitched since June 4 and he’s only getting the start because Noah Lowry has tightness in his forearm.
Take the Pirates as they grab the road win.