If you bet this way yesterday, you woulda gone 10-2. Here are today's plays (Monday)

MistaFlava · Aug 13, 2007

BET ON THE TEAM WHO'S STARTING PITCHER HAS HAD THE BETTER 'RUN SUPPORT' THE LAST THREE GAMES (Rounded out to nearest number)

If number after rounding was even, NO PLAY!!!

*These are not my picks, just an observation of what kinds of common factors all winning teams had in one day. Could be a pure coincidence.

10-2 yesterday

Monday, August 13

San Francisco G1: Matt Cain 4.0 runs of run support
Pittsburgh G1: Paul Maholm 6.0 runs of run support

Pick: Pittsburgh ML -107 (Game 1)

Tampa Bay: James Shields 5.0 runs of run support
Boston: Tim Wakefield 6.0 runs of run support

Pick: Boston ML -167

Oakland: Chad Gaudin 4.0 runs of run support
Detroit: Chad Durbin 7.0 runs of run support

Pick: Detroit ML -135

Baltimore: Jeremy Guthrie 4.0 runs of run support
NY Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang 7.0 runs of run support

Play: NY Yankees ML -240

Toronto: Jesse Litsch 6.0 runs of run support
Kansas City: Odalis Perez 4.0 runs of run support

Pick: Toronto ML -120

Minnesota: Johan Santana 5.0 runs of run support
Seattle: Felix Hernandez 8.0 runs of run support

Pick: Seattle ML +111

Houston: Roy Oswalt 6.0 runs of run support
LA Dodgers: Chad Billingsley 2.0 runs of run support

Pick: Houston ML +100

Again these are not my personal picks, just some observations on how things went yesterday and what most winners had in common. Game 2 between SF-PIT is not listed because both pitchers have the same number of rounded out run of run support per game.

:toast:

Suedehead · Aug 13, 2007

Mista, can you please remind us of the results of this thread late Monday night or Tues morning. I want to watch this play out and see if the trend holds for two consecutive days.

tatehill2000 · Aug 13, 2007

wow,,,, 6-1,,,,, interesting,,,,,,

tater

BigMike56 · Aug 13, 2007

Do you follow these stats for every game? Seems like it could be very telling. Interested on where you can find these numbers.

MistaFlava · Aug 13, 2007

BigMike56 said:
Do you follow these stats for every game? Seems like it could be very telling. Interested on where you can find these numbers.

No not at all. I was just trying to pick a winner for Sunday Night baseball by looking at all of yesterday's afternoon results and seeing what they all had in common. This theory is not back-tested and could easily lose every day from here on in. There numbers can all be found at places like covers.

BigMike56 · Aug 13, 2007

I wouldnt "live and die" by it but i think it could really factor into certain match-ups. Nice call Mista.

tatehill2000 · Aug 13, 2007

dammmmm,,I do admit I am half drunkkk,,, ugh,,appararent,ly iread this post wrong??? FLAV?? these ppics are for monday,,, yikers,, wat up with sundays piics???

anyway,,, Iguesss wewait to see for mondayyyyyyy

tater

sandbagger73 · Aug 13, 2007

Mistaflava

Where do you find the stats for this system. (pitcher run support) ? THA:ughhh: NKS

AJPantano · Aug 13, 2007

Wouldn't some of those be no plays.. since most are even?

MistaFlava · Aug 13, 2007

sandbagger73 said:
Where do you find the stats for this system. (pitcher run support) ? THA:ughhh: NKS

Covers has them listed under the AF for last three games.

raiderguy · Aug 13, 2007

good info flava

buffettgambler · Aug 13, 2007

Flava,
Is this theory suggesting since the Pirates scored 8 runs 18 days ago against the Mets, they now have a better chance of winning today? What if Wright didnt bobble a ball that lead to 5 unearned runs? Would the Pirates chances of winning today decrease?

MistaFlava · Aug 13, 2007

buffettgambler said:
Flava,
Is this theory suggesting since the Pirates scored 8 runs 18 days ago against the Mets, they now have a better chance of winning today? What if Wright didnt bobble a ball that lead to 5 unearned runs? Would the Pirates chances of winning today decrease?

As I stated yesterday, it's an observation, not a theory...simple as that.

noropin · Aug 13, 2007

Where is the AF @ covers?

MistaFlava · Aug 13, 2007

noropin said:
Where is the AF @ covers?

In the matchup pages listed beside the pitcher vs. pitcher comparison (FULL SEASON AND LAST 3 GAMES). There is an AF and AA and all that stuff.

MistaFlava · Aug 13, 2007

Well the Pirates cashed in for the first game. Now lets see what happens the rest of the night.

pinom · Aug 13, 2007

Curious to see how this plays out. Also wonder if runs support number
could help in determining O/U's.

ThePig+ · Aug 13, 2007

flava where do find the plethora of stats and angels you come up with?
On one specific site or do you search around?

MistaFlava · Aug 14, 2007

RECAP of today's games:

Monday, August 13

San Francisco G1: Matt Cain 4.0 runs of run support
Pittsburgh G1: Paul Maholm 6.0 runs of run support

Pick: Pittsburgh ML -107 (Game 1)

Tampa Bay: James Shields 5.0 runs of run support
Boston: Tim Wakefield 6.0 runs of run support

Pick: Boston ML -167

Oakland: Chad Gaudin 4.0 runs of run support
Detroit: Chad Durbin 7.0 runs of run support

Pick: Detroit ML -135

Baltimore: Jeremy Guthrie 4.0 runs of run support
NY Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang 7.0 runs of run support

Play: NY Yankees ML -240

Toronto: Jesse Litsch 6.0 runs of run support
Kansas City: Odalis Perez 4.0 runs of run support

Pick: Toronto ML -120

Minnesota: Johan Santana 5.0 runs of run support
Seattle: Felix Hernandez 8.0 runs of run support

Pick: Seattle ML +111

Houston: Roy Oswalt 6.0 runs of run support
LA Dodgers: Chad Billingsley 2.0 runs of run support

Pick: Houston ML +100

15-4 the last two days

Well it looks like the observation finished at 5-2 which is not bad at all I guess. The total for two days is impressive but who knows if it will last. I'll post the qualifying plays for tomorrow in a new thread.

:103631605