SERVICE PLAYS Aug 14th 2007

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BIG AL MCMORDIE

Our 3 selections are the Dodgers, Brewers, and the Blue Jays.

Toronto -- At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays with Roy Halladay over the Angels. All the former Cy Young Winner does at home is win. This year he's 9-1, and he's also led the Blue Jays to 28 wins in his last 34 starts on artificial turf. The First Place Angels have been struggling away from Anaheim, as they've won just 9 of 22 games on the road. Take Toronto.

Brewers -- At 8:05 pm, our NL Central Game of the Month is on the Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis. Even though Milwaukee has not played well of late, and even though Chris Capuano has not won any of his last 14 starts, we'll back Ned Yost's men tonight. Kip Wells has been awful in his three starts vs. Milwaukee this season (15 runs in 18 innings) while Capuano has been a little bit better than OK in his 2 starts vs. St Louis (4 runs in 9 1/3 innings). The Cards will feel the ill effect of not having 2B Adam Kennedy in the lineup, and Milwaukee is still the best home team in baseball. Take the Brewers.

Dodgers -- At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the LA Dodgers over Houston, as we will fade Astro starter Matt Albers, who has just 1 win against 5 losses in 9 starts, with an ERA over 6 runs per game. Houston is also 34-47 on the road vs. righties this year, and 2-9 on the road vs. NL West division teams. Brett Tomko threw 6 shutout innings in his last start vs. Houston, and LA is 87-54 (+23 games on the money line) vs. losing teams the past two years. Take LA.
 

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CAPPERS ACCESS

(Tue) Cubs
(Tue) Brewers
 

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Marc Lawrence

Game: Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners Aug
14 2007 10:05PM

Prediction: Minnesota Twins

Reason: Play On: Minnesota w/Garza over Seattle w/ Ramirez
Note: Twins Matt Garza is in fine KW form with 5 walks and 17 strikeouts in his last three starting efforts. Meanwhile, Mariners Horacio Ramirez is 7-0 at home this season but enters this game off back-to-back phony 'inside-out' wins in his last two starts. Look for Minnesota to hand Ramirez his first home defeat here tonight.
 

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HONDO

August 14, 2007 -- The Twins and Santana refused to change their evil ways for Hondo last night, getting M-barrassed in Seattle to raise the nasty red number to 250 lindb lads.

Tonight, he'll try to move closer to the black with the Reds - 10 units on Harang to harass the Cubs.
 

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Jimmy The Moose

Game: Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners Aug 14 2007 10:05PM

Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Reason: All stats are prior to last night's game. The Twins had dropped their last 4 games, all 4 were road games. Minnesota is 3-7 in their last 10 overall. In their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record, they are 0-4. The Mariners have won 7 of their last 10. In their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record they are 8-1. Seattle is 20-8 in their last 28 home games. Seattle is 7-0 in Ramirez's last 7 home starts. Seattle has won 4 of his last 5 overall. The Mariners are playing very good baseball and will take this one tonight.
 

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MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty missed with the Eagles last night.

Today it's the Cubs. The surplus is 710 sirignanos.


STEVE ZUKIEL

MLB New York (N) vs. Pittsburgh

Take New York (N) Mets

Major League Baseball New York vs Pittsburgh Hernandez vs Snell Tuesday August 14th, 2007 7:05 pm est 4:05 pm pacific Line: New York(-120) Rating: EZ Free Winner In this contest, my money is on the New York Mets. The Mets sit atop of the NL East, but they have Philadelphia and Atlanta breathing down their necks. They have to defeat weaker teams like Pittsburgh when presented the chance. I don't think they will have a problem tonight. Despite New York being on the road, they actually have a better record away from home than they do playing at Shea. They also average close to one run better on the road as well. Pittsburgh meanwhile, is seven games below .500 at home and are averaging just 4.36 rpg. These two starting pitchers are also heading in opposite directions. New York's Orlando Hernandez has not lost since July 4th. During that span the right-hander has gone a perfect 3-0, the team has won all six of his starts and he has allowed just 12 runs and 24 hits in 39 2/3 innings of work. Pittsburgh's Ian Snell hasn't won since July 4th. During that span the righ-hander has gone 0-5, the team has lost all six of his outings and he has allowed a whopping 26 runs on 45 hits in just 32 innings of work. One of those outings came against this same New York team and in that start, Snell lasted just four innings, allowing six runs and 10 hits along the way. Sure Snell has decent home numbers but in his last two home starts, he has allowed 15 hits and 11 runs in 11 innings of work. That is a 9.00 ERA. New York is the better baseball team and they have the much better pitcher on the mound. Sure the Mets are on the road, but they actually play better away from home. They need this win and they will get it. Take The Mets in this one.



GUARANTEED SPORTS PICKS

NY METS



MIKE ROSE


Detroit Tigers (135)
Tue Aug 14 '07 7:05p

Huge series starts tonight as the Tigers and Tribe are deadlocked in a first place tie for AL Central supremacy. The Tribe's coming off a woodshed beating that lasted for three days in their own backyard after the Yanks made minced meat out of them over the weekend. No doubt they'll enter tonight's game looking to atone for their sins, but that's not going to be enough against this Tigers club that I believe to be the cream of the AL Central crop. Many will be all over CC, the other hefty lefty, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Bonderman's certainly not in top form coming into this game, but he has the stuff to keep this Cleveland offense in check. Speaking of the Tribe's run production, where is it? It's just flat out disappeared of late, and I don't think Bonderman's the type of guy they'll just rediscover their magic against. He pitched a gem in "The Jake" back in early June, and he's won 5 of his L/7 starts in Cleveland. On the flipside, CC has lost 4 of his L/5 home starts against Detroit. Simply put, there's too much value here not to take the Tigers. They're the hotter hitting team right now, and they're still trotting out an exceptional hurler even though he's been roughed up his L/4 starts. This is a statement series for these guys as the Tribe has climbed to the top of the division while the Tigers struggled the last couple weeks. This is a perfect time for them to put some distance between them and the Indians. Look for them to do so as Bonderman picks up his first win in over three weeks.




Colorado Rockies (105)
Tue Aug 14 '07 10:05p

Don't look now, but the Rox only find themselves five games out of the NL West and they're invading San Diego looking to even up the season series with the Padres at five games apiece. This young Rockies club has hung around in the division all season long, and their hungry to make some serious headlines and start being taken seriously within the division. In case you haven't heard of Rockies starter Jeff Francis, listen up. The kids 13-5 on the year, and he's only surrendered 69 ER's in 153 innings of work. He owns a pristine K/BB ratio of 115/39, and comes into tonight's start sporting a stellar 8-0 mark his L/11 starts. On top of that, the Rockies are 17-7 in all his starts this year and he's only 14 K's away from surpassing his career strikeout mark in a season. The kids been simply sensational for the Rox, and I expect nothing different tonight. I much prefer to back the youngster here at plus money than the cagey old vet Maddux who always seems to run out of gas in the 5th/6th innings. Colorado's bats have been ripping the cover off the ball of late, and I foresee one big inning being just enough to bring home the bacon.
 

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MATT FARGO

Seattle looks to continue its second best home record in the American League as it takes on the Twins in the second game of this series. The Mariners are 20-8 in their last 28 home games and 19-7 in their last 26 home games against a team with a losing record. Minnesota has really been struggling as it has dropped eight of its last 11 games while the offense has scored three runs or less in 10 of those contests. The Twins are 2-5 in their last seven road games against a team with a winning record.

Home/road dichotomy plays a big role in the success of some pitchers around the league. In six road starts, Horacio Ramirez is 1-3 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.50 WHIP with Seattle going 1-5 in those games. In seven home outings, he is 6-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with Seattle going 7-0 in those games. Six of his seven home starts have been quality outings and the offense behind him has averaged a solid 6.4 rpg in those contests. Saying that Ramirez feels more comfortable at home is a drastic understatement.

Matt Garza has been a pleasant surprise since entering the rotation in early July as he as posted a 1.70 ERA in six starts and one relief appearance. The problem is that he only has one win to show for it as the offense has hurt him as well, averaging just 3.5 rpg in those six starts. Even that is skewed with a 12-run outburst included so the other five games resulted in just 1.8 rpg. The Mariners are 4-1 in their last five games against a right-handed starter.

This is a great contrarian situation for the Mariners based on recent starter performances and the price is better than the norm. Play against road underdogs with a moneyline of +100 or higher that are starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or more over his last three starts. This situation is 53-14 against the moneyline (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons with the average run differential being +2.0 rpg in those 67 games. Play Seattle Mariners 1 Unit
 

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MATT RIVERS

For Tuesday lay a run and a half with the Braves at home.

Yes, I know all about John Smoltz' issues how he hasn't been throwing the split finger fastball and is topping out at speeds which are very low for him but the bottom line here is that the Giants are a joke right now and should get drilled. Plus San Fran has pretty much a minor league journeyman pitcher on the bump here against Smoltz in Scott Atchison. Even if the Atlanta hurler is running on fumes he is still far better than "Scott Atchison".
The Braves had Monday off after the tough series' in New York against the Mets and in Philadelphia against the Phillies. Bobby Cox' squad split the six games and truly should have won at least five of the six if not for a few bad breaks. Atlanta is very very good right now and cannot be taken lightly.
The Giants meanwhile are horrific and just burned themselves out yesterday in that doubleheader in Pittsburgh. Barry Bonds and the G-Men do not even seem to care about winning and continue to underachieve as any team has ever underachieved.
With Mark Teixeira in the middle of the lineup the Bravos are extremely potent. Throw in the former Texas Rangers star with Chipper, Francouer, McCann and a few others and there is no reason at all that this game should be close.
San Francisco is absolute mush right now. They lose game after game and are in a spot here where if they lose by 10 runs nobody would bat an eye. I will gladly lay that run and a half and expect a blowout!
 

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Global Handicapping

8/14/2007 at 7:05:00 PM
New York Mets/O Hernandez R at Pittsburgh Pirates/I Snell R


New York Mets




SCOTT DELANEY

TUESDAY NIGHT IN BASEBALL WE'LL PLAY

PADRES (WITH Maddux and Francis) - Look for San Diego to hold on to sole possession of second place in the N.L. West after taking Game 1 this crucial series with this Rockies in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park.
And while know the Rox are sending one of their top hurlers to the hill in this one, the Rockies haven't seen much success when Jeff Francis toes the rubber against the Friars. The Rockies are just 2-6 in Francis' last eight starts versus the Friars, not to mention a dismal 1-4 mark in his last five starts at PETCO.
On top of that, the Rockies have won just once in their last eight games in San Diego.
Low chalk here, as Greg Maddux is long overdue for a win, and will get it tonight.

3♦ PADRES



DRGSPORTS

8/14/2007 at 10:05:00 PM
Minnesota Twins/M Garza R at Seattle Mariners/H Ramirez L


Minnesota Twins
 

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Gator's MLB 70% Situational Report:


MLB (Tuesday): Play Against MLB road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last start facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts.
(53-14 last 5 seasons.) (79.1%) PLAY: Texas -140
 

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Razor Sharp Sports

MINNESOTA (Garza) +110 over Seattle

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Bud's Wiser Picks

Chicago White Sox

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Totals 4 U

MINNESOTA/SEATTLE OVER 9

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Huddle Up Sports

Kansas City (Davies) +125

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Nevada Sharpshooter

CINCINNATI REDS +145

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#1 Sports

TEXAS RANGERS -135

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H.D.'s ActionLine

St. Louis +135

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TV Hotline

LA DODGERS -140





Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Mets (-135) at PITTSBURGH
4♦ METS
 

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Bobby Maxwell

We're taking a shot with the Devil Rays tonight because their starting pitcher tonight has been red hot in his last three starts and outdueled some big-name pitchers. Tampa's Scott Kazmir (9-7, 3.58 ERA) is on the hill and he is not a pitcher we want to go against right now.
In his last three starts Kazmir has allowed one run in 19 innings as the Devil Rays have beaten Boston, Baltimore and Detroit. He has outdueled the Red Sox Dice-K and Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman in two of those starts and he is getting enough offense to get him the wins.
Kazmir has allowed more than one run just once in his last six starts. Against Boston he has been a roller coaster ride, dominating the Red Sox in Tampa but struggling against them in Boston. But we're going with him tonight to do just like he did back on July 29, and dominate them from the outset.
Boston's Jon Lester (1-0, 6.43) was hit hard in his last outing, lasting just 3 1/3 innings and giving up five runs on eight hits. He has made four starts this season and allowed at least four runs in three of them. Sure the Red Sox have won three of the four but it's because of the offense and not because of his pitching.
Lester gave up four runs in 6 2/3 innings back on July 28 against the Devil Rays, and if he does the same tonight, Kazmir and the Devil Rays will win this game. Grab the plus-money and play Tampa Bay.

2♦ TAMPA BAY



Karl Garrett

Big showdown at Petco Park tonight, as Colorado and San Diego are neck-and-neck in the West.
Certainly on paper it looks like the red-hot Jeff Francis is a "lock" against the slumping Greg Maddux, but if you look closer - like the G-Man has - you will see that Francis has had all kinds of trouble with this Padres' line up, as Francis is just 4-8 for his career against the Pods, and this season he has been shelled to a tune of 11 runs in just 12 innings of work.
San Diego has won 2 of the first 3 at home this year against Colorado, and they are 13-8 overall the last 2-plus years at home against the Rockies. With Colorado sporting just a 26-33 mark this season away from friendly Coors where they are 12 games over .500, the G-Man will go with the Padres to open this big 3 game set with a win.
Greg Maddux may not have any wins to show for his last few starts, but he has pitched decently his last 3 trips to the mound. Look for him to give the Padres what they need tonight.

3♦ SAN DIEGO



Chris Jordan

For Tuesday we're going to play the Cubbies over Cincinnati

Some kind of matchup here, as arguably the two best hurlers in the NL Central go in this power clash. And after surviving a 2-5-road trip, the Cubs are still only 1-1/2 games back of the division-leading Brewers.
I am going to side with Carlos Zambrano here, as he comes in off a brutal loss to the Astros and will look to redeem himself in this crucial series-opener against the Reds and their ace hurler Aaron Harang.
The Big Z should be able to overpower this lineup for win No. 15, as he's won three of his last five decisions against the Reds. He's lost two of the three this season, but was stellar in his last start against Cincinnati, tossing seven scoreless innings on July 29 in Cincinnati.
Tonight, at Wrigley – where Harang struggled on April 13 – I'll bank on Zambrano to bounce back solidly.

2♦ CUBS
 

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Must Win Sports Picks

8/14/2007 at 7:05:00 PM Philadelphia Phillies/K Lohse R at Washington Nationals/S Hill R run line


Philadelphia Phillies/K Lohse R -1.5



Mensapicks

8/14/2007 at 7:05:00 PM

Angels of Anaheim/J Saunders L at Toronto Blue Jays/R Halladay R

Angels of Anaheim
 

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Tony Mathews

Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals

Selection: Washington Nationals (-105)




Great Lakes Sports

Major League Baseball Selection:

LA Angels at Toronto 7:05PM EST Play on: LA Angels with Saunders

The Angels are on a roll going 6-1 their last seven games, and the Angels Saunders is a perfect 6-0 with an 3.46era this year. The Angels are also 26-17 when playing a team with a winning record this year, and 40-28 after a win this year. The Bluejays are 27-31 when playing a team with a winning record this year, and are 37-42 in night games this year. We look for the LA Angels to grab the road win tonight.
 

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Joe Nelson

Houston (Albers) + over Los Angeles (Tomko)

The Dodgers are an absolute go-against team right now as the offense is averaging fewer than two runs per game in the last ten games. Brett Tomko has been ineffective as both a starter and a reliever this season and he features a 2-9 record with an extremely high ERA. Matt Albers has made just two starts this season and one was highly successful. The Astros are not a good road team but they have improved play in recent weeks. The Dodgers are just 8-17 in the last 25 home games and Los Angeles should not be favored over anyone right now with the way the team is hitting.




Bryan Leonard

(953) Mets at Pirates:

Getting away from Shea will help the Mets offense. They are actually 8-4 their last 12 road games! Starter Orlando Hernandez continues to impress, with a 7-4 record and a 2.61 ERA his last three starts. Young Pirates starter Ian Snell has hit the wall, with an 0-2 record and a 5.82 ERA his last three starts.

PLAY THE METS



VEGAS SPORTS PICS

L.A.Angels (Saunders) +155* over Toronto (Halladay)
Seattle (Ramirez) -105* over Minnesota (Garza)




Scott Spreitzer


St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, August 14th, 8:05 P.M. EST EST

The Redbirds are right on the heels of both the Cubs and the Brewers heading into this important series. The Cardinal lineup is night-and-day better than it was a month ago with a handful of new additions, including Rick Ankiel. The new-look batting order will take on Chris Capuano. The Brewer southpaw has seen his team lose each of his last 14 starts. Capuano owns a 6.33 ERA & 1.67 WHIP during the long losing streak. Meanwhile, Kip Wells has taken a couple of minor delivery changes to heart. In his last five outings, Wells has allowed just nine earned runs and 45 base runners in 32 2/3 IP. That's a 2.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Also, while Milwaukee owns a strong home record overall, they do average just 4.2 RPG in home night tilts against righties. At the same time, the Cards are in one of their best in-season spots. They're 9-4 and average 5.5 RPG in road night games against southpaws. The hotter team with the pitcher in much better current form are getting a decent-sized price. We'll grab that price with the underdog Cardinals on Tuesday.

Play on: St. Louis




VEGAS EXPERTS

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, August 14th, 7:05 P.M. EDT

Mets need to take advantage of this opportunity. Return of Moises Alou has given a boost to their batting order. El Duque putting up fantastic numbers, with 82 hits allowed in 118 IP. Supporting angles say to Play Against - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PITTSBURGH) - good fielding team - averaging <=0.6 errors/game on the season against opponent excellent speed team - averaging 1 or more SB's/game on the season (138-86 since 1997) and Play Against - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PITTSBURGH) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), in August games. (96-53 since 1997.)

Play on: New York





08/14

Gamblers Data

Play on: Atlanta -1.5 -120


Bonus Play Record

780-443

64%




Big Dons World Class Handicapping
MLB
Kansas City Royals(0) ~ vs ~ Texas Rangers(0)

Texas Rangers -135




Michael Cannon:

15 Dime –

DIAMONDBACKS (With Kim and Willis as listed pitchers)

Take the Diamondbacks as the road dog for the win over the Marlins.
Arizona has been one of the hottest, if not the hottest, team in the majors. They will be facing a pitcher who has fallen on some very tough times in Dontrelle Willis.
The D-Train, once one of the best young pitchers in the league, has struggled to a 7-12 record this year. He is 0-9 with a 5.14 ERA in 13 starts since his last win on My 29. The left-hander has also been snake bitten at home, where he’s 0-7 with a 5.02 ERA in his last 10 outings since his last win on April 23.
Willis has also struggled against Arizona, going 1-4 with a 4.55 ERA in five career starts.
The Diamondbacks are 17-4 since July 21, which has catapulted them to the top of the NL standings.
Arizona will start Byung-Hyun Kim, who was acquired off waivers from the Marlins. The right-hander is 6-3 with a 5.09 ERA in 20 career appearances, including five starts, against the Marlins.
Arizona is just the better team here facing a pitcher who can’t buy a win.
Take the Diamondbacks as the road dog for the win.

5 Dime –

PIRATES (With Snell as listed pitcher)

Take the Pirates as the home dog over the Mets.
I know it sounds like a reach, but the Pirates have actually been playing pretty well recently, winning four of their last five. They will send Ian Snell to the mound tonight and he looked like he was rounding back into form in his last start.
Snell has slumped badly since the All-Star break, but he pitched six innings, allowing just two earned runs while striking out seven in his last start, a no-decision in the Bucs’ 4-2 loss at Arizona.
The Mets will start Orlando Hernandez, and the right-hander has pitched well this season but has been the victim of poor run support.
He has just seven wins on the year, the same as Snell, despite a solid 3.05 ERA.
The Mets as a team haven’t been solidifying their position as a playoff team, going 2-4 over their last six games.
Take the Pirates as the home dog for the win.

CARDINALS (With Wells and Capuano as listed pitchers)

Take the Cardinals as the road dog for the win over the Brewers.
I can’t believe I’m actually going to side with St. Louis starter Kip Wells, on the road no less, but that’s how poorly Chris Capuano has been pitching for Milwaukee.
The Brewers left-hander is 0-9 with a 6.33 ERA over his last 14 starts since his last win on May 7. He’ll have his hands full with a rejuvenated St. Louis lineup, especially Albert Pujols, who is batting .560 (14-for25) with three home runs and 10 RBIs lifetime against the left-hander.
Wells has actually turned his season around somewhat, going 1-0 with a 3.50 ERA over his last three starts. The right-hander has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts.
Take the Cardinals as the road dog as they grab the win.
 

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Scott Spreitzer


St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, August 14th, 8:05 P.M. EST EST

The Redbirds are right on the heels of both the Cubs and the Brewers heading into this important series. The Cardinal lineup is night-and-day better than it was a month ago with a handful of new additions, including Rick Ankiel. The new-look batting order will take on Chris Capuano. The Brewer southpaw has seen his team lose each of his last 14 starts. Capuano owns a 6.33 ERA & 1.67 WHIP during the long losing streak. Meanwhile, Kip Wells has taken a couple of minor delivery changes to heart. In his last five outings, Wells has allowed just nine earned runs and 45 base runners in 32 2/3 IP. That's a 2.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Also, while Milwaukee owns a strong home record overall, they do average just 4.2 RPG in home night tilts against righties. At the same time, the Cards are in one of their best in-season spots. They're 9-4 and average 5.5 RPG in road night games against southpaws. The hotter team with the pitcher in much better current form are getting a decent-sized price. We'll grab that price with the underdog Cardinals on Tuesday.

Play on: St. Louis
 

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Ben Burns

Game: Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers Aug 14 2007 8:35PM

Prediction: Texas Rangers

Reason: The Rangers will have payback on their minds as they were swept at KC a few weeks ago and lost the finale of that series by a score of 10-0. Millwood gets the call and he's admittedly had a poor year. However, he comes off a "quality start" vs. Oakland, allowing three runs through six innings and his numbers at home are better than his opponent's numbers on the road. Indeed, Davies has a 6.17 ERA and 1.821 WHIP while seeing his team go 3-7 in 10 road starts. Despite his high ERA, Millwood has gotten strong run support here and remains a healthy 5-3 at home on the season. The Rangers are 5-2 the last seven times they hosted the Royals and 6-3 this season when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Consider a play on TEXAS
 

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Pure Lock

Tuesday
BALTIMORE @ NY YANKEES 7:05 PM EST


PLAY ON: NY YANKEES (CABRERA/KARSTENS) LISTED
 

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