six tonight with analysis

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-1.92 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">33</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">40</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+5.82 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">171</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">205</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+18.09 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


WASHINGTON +1.03 over Philadelphia
Have no interest whatsoever in Kyle Lohse as the chalk in this one. His road ERA is 6.46 to go along with a 2-9 record. In addition, the Phillies are coming off a big series win over the Braves and this setting and circumstance has letdown written all over it. The Nationals remain pesky as hell and surpsingly enough they’ve been one of the better teams in the league the last month. They’ve won nine of 13 and they’ll send out a very tough righty by the name of Shawn Hill. Hill comes off the DL for this start after being placed on it May 14 with a sore right elbow. Before the injury, Hill had allowed just two earned runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts and was actually throwing a no-hitter through six innings when he was pulled because of said injury. He was sharp in his rehab start and there’s nothing suggesting he won’t be sharp again here. He’s allowed just 37 hits in 50 innings with only two of those hits going yard. The Phillies are still without Utley and Victorino and scoring runs at this venue is going to be a whole lot tougher. Nats have a great shot to win here. Play: Washington +1.03 (Risking 2 units).<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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Colorado +1.01 over SAN DIEGO
The Rockies plus anything has to be considered a true gift, as they continue to be under-priced almost daily. Offensively, it’s a mismatch, as the Rockies have one of the top five offenses in the business and over the past two months they’ve been number one. In addition, Jeff Francis is on a major league roll with eight straight wins with four of those coming on the road. The Padres are unimpressive to say the least. They’ve dropped three of five to the Reds and Cardinals their last series win came against the pitiful Giants. They’ve had two series wins in the last month. Greg Maddux is going to the Hall but the fact is, he’s been on the decline for the past five years. He can still pitch and he can still eat up innings like Joey Chestnut eats up hot-dogs. However, everything in this match-up favors the Rockies, the starters, offense, defense and current form. Play: Colorado +1.01 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Houston +1.36 over LOS ANGELES
The Dodgers are having enough trouble winning games with guys like Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley and Derek Lowe on the hill. Thus, the question is how tough is it going to be with Brett Tomko throwing. Tomko’s ERA is 5.49 but it gets worse then that. At home he’s 0-6 with a 6.69 ERA and that doesn’t bode well when your offense is supplying you with zero or one run every night. The Dodgers have scored six runs in their last five games and they have three wins in their last 15 games. Ouch. For the ‘Stros, it’ll be Matt Albers and a quick look at his numbers and they don’t look pretty. However, a closer look reveals a little different story. Albers has pitched mostly in relief but has been much more effective as a starter. In fact, he opened the year with consecutive strong outings and three strong outings in his first four starts. Then the trouble began in which he was battling the strike zone and walking too many. He was sent down in late May and started nine games for the Round Rock Express and pitched well enough to get the call back up. Aside from a couple of rough outings against the Braves he’s pitched pretty good. He’s much more comfortable in the starters role and when he throws strikes he’s very effective indeed. The Astros offense is clicking at the moment and until the Dodgers show us something else, we’ll gladly take back a tag against them with Tomko on the mound. Overlay. Play: Houston +1.36 (Risking 2 units).<o:p></o:p>
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Baltimore +1.55 over NY YANKEES
It’s tough to play against the Yanks these days because they’re finding ways to win no matter what but this pitching match-up is strongly in the Orioles favor. Daniel Cabrera has some of the filthiest stuff in the league and should be among the best out there. However, he often struggles due to a lack of something but it’s not because of a lack of talent. When Cabrera is on his game he’s perhaps the most difficult pitcher to hit in all of baseball. Let’s hope this setting brings out the best in him. The Orioles continue to compete and they’re playing some decent ball at the moment. They were in it last night and in fact, were tied going to the bottom of the ninth. Jeff Karstens is a mere fraction the caliber of Cabrera. He’s pitched just 10.2 innings this year and has allowed 19 hits, 15 runs and given up five walks. His ERA on the year is 10.13 and he hasn’t pitched in the majors since he broke his leg on April 28. The Orioles should be able to score some runs in support of Cabrera and again, if Cabrera gets an early lead and keeps his focus the Orioles cold be very tough tonight. Besides, Jeff Karstens should not be this big a favorite over anyone and if he played for any other team in America or elsewhere he wouldn’t be. Play: Baltimore +1.55 (Risking 2 units).
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Detroit +1.32 over CLEVELAND
The Indians seem less interested these days then Sigfried and Roy at a Nanny convention. This is considered to be a huge series and with lots on the line the Tigers have way more appeal then the Indians do. Cleveland is a very average club that got off to a great start but their true colors are shining through. They’re not hitting, the have a brutal defense and their bullpen is among the worst the league has to offer. C.C. Sabathia is the straight goods but so is Jeremy Bonderman and with a pitching match-up very even the similarities end right there. Detroit is so much superior then the Indians that when this series and subsequent season is over the Tigers will be out of the Indians sight. Not a chance in hell are we passing up on the Tigers as a dog in this game or any other game in this series and that’s all there is to it. The Tigers plus +1.32 here is ludicrous, as they should be the one’s laying –1.40. Play: Detroit +1.32 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Kansas City +1.31 over TEXAS
Kansas City is young, they’re hungry, they’re playing well, they bring it every night and what they lack in talent they make up for in desire. This is a pesky team that wants to play and they want to win. They had a winning month in both June and July and in they they’re just a game below .500 in August and that’s after playing three against the Yanks and four against the Blue Jays. Meanwhile, the Rangers vets are pissed that the team is going in “another direction” for the tenth time in the last 10 years. In fact, this just might be one of the most mismanaged and dysfunctional team in all of sports. They have just five wins in their last 20 games with two of them coming against the Devil Rays and the other two coming against the reeling Indians. Kevin Millwood is one of those vets that can’t wait for this season to be over. For one, he’s having a brutal year and for another, his ERA over his last three starts covering just over 12 innings is 8.53. Frankly, we don’t care who’s pitching for the Royals, although we do like Kyle Davies, when the Rangers are favored they’re a horrible wager and this one is no exception. Of course KC can win here. Play: Kansas City +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
 

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i think every general manager in baseball would question your sanity if you told them that bonderman/sabathia was an even pitching matchup.

detroit is the better overall team, but the pitching matchup heavily favors(ed) the indians in this game, thus the price.
 

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You're right Prodigy....Sabathia is the better pitcher and I should've been more clear that the Tigers offense makes up for the advantage that Sabathia has and I'm not going to argue your point that Sabathia is the better pitcher. He is and I appreciate the comments. Still, I don't think the Indians are even remotely close to warrant this price.
 

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You're right Prodigy....Sabathia is the better pitcher and I should've been more clear that the Tigers offense makes up for the advantage that Sabathia has and I'm not going to argue your point that Sabathia is the better pitcher. He is and I appreciate the comments. Still, I don't think the Indians are even remotely close to warrant this price.

i think the price is correct as far as the matchup goes. sabathia at home should absolutely be a 150ish to 170ish favorite.

but in current form, there is no way in hell i would touch the indians laying such odds. they flat out cannot score score runs right now. its painful to watch. this has been going on for 3 weeks now. tonight was just another example. score 2 runs in the first on a sizemore homer but go completely silent after that.

without question, youre right in taking a stab on the tigers at such a price. indians just arent hitting worth a shit.
 

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