8/14 Plays

Search

New member
Joined
Dec 19, 2005
Messages
2,016
Tokens
Today’s card appears to be a rare one, as I deem a lot of favorites undervalued.



Mets
Hernandez may be overachieving a bit, but I see no reason for him not to continue his solid pitching against an undisciplined Pirates lineup that lacks the patience at the plate needed to counter Hernandez’s style of pitching. His off speed pitches have been eating up right handed hitters, as they have hit just .153 against him all season, not boding well for a Pirates lineup likely to send seven right handers to the plate tonight. Showing no signs of slowing down late in the season throughout his career, including this one, and having past success against the Pirates and several of their hitters, and Hernandez appears to have a tailor made opportunity to put forth a solid outing against a tired Pirates coming off a double header and have been going through the motions for quite some time. Being backed by a top tier and well rested bullpen should allow the Mets to put a pitcher on the mound that should overmatch this anemic lineup.

It has been a tale of two seasons for Snell. The first half, Snell flew under the radar, being one of the most dominant yet undervalued pitchers in baseball. After a couple months of dominance, his lines caught up with him. However, since July, Snell has become a liability on the mound, yet his lines have not fully adjusted to his drastic regression. Being a power pitcher weighing 180 makes Snell a liability to wear down late in seasons, especially this early in his career where his arm is not used to accumulating such a high inning count. He finished July and currently holds in August a six plus ERA. Location mistakes commensurate with fatigue and a lack of confidence have allowed teams to put forth a well hit rate at an alarming rate, and a BABIP of .400 during that time frame. Snell’s past struggles against the Mets is just another variable working against him in this spot.




Brewers
The Brewers have quickly become somewhat of a contrarian play after being a public darling during the first half of the season. Still being a tough team to beat at home, it is hard to pass them up at this price. The Cardinals appear to be making a late season surge that is fully incorporated into the market pricing, and still have an uphill battle having to face all around better teams like the Brewers. Although Wells is pitching better of late, he has always been a liability on the road during his road starts and against power lineups. His last poor outing came three weeks ago against this same Brewers lineup that managed 11 hits and five runs in just five innings of work. His only start against them in Milwaukee, he performed even worse. The Cardinals have been able to piece together a winning streak in August by playing the role of opportunist, facing anemic lineups in the Nats, Pirates, Padres and Dodgers, in which they have always matched up well against. This will not be the case tonight when they face a Brewers team that swept them last time they visited this park.

No denying that Capuano is not the same pitcher he was in prior seasons. However, he is still managing to put forth his better outings at home, has increased his strike out rate, decreased his walk rate, while his BABIP has increased at a higher rate than his well hit ratio- all signs potentially pointing to a turnaround. Most of his past struggles against the Cardinals have come from one player, Pujols, which is a mismatch that can be avoided with his lack of protection. The Cardinals are still an inferior lineup against southpaws, and putting Capuano on the mound puts Duncan on the bench.


Cubs
No doubt the injuries to Ramirez and Soriano have put a damper on the Cubs (underachieving) lineup, but especially with a combined 6 for 35 against Reds starter Haranger, their absence is more than justly incorporated in today’s line. Harrang has always been a pitcher that lacks the same respect that other pitchers that have put up similar number than he has gotten. That said, after pitcher seven straight quality starts, it appears that his time has finally come, and his backers have sent the Cubs line down to where I deem them undervalued. One team that Harrang has yet to figure out is this Cubs team who have given him a five plus ERA two straight seasons. The Cubs have matched up better against power pitchers with Harrang all season, and have performed better against veteran pitchers they are familiar with like Harrang. Although Harrang gives the Reds their best chance of avoiding their bullpen, he has been known for early exits against the Cubs, which should give the Cubs a decisive advantage once both aces leave the game.

Zambrano finally suffered a setback after being arguably the best pitcher in baseball for two months. Being a solid bounceback pitcher who has had success against this Reds lineup throughout his career, I like his chances of giving the Cubs a good chance of getting back into the win column. Just three starts ago, he dominated this same lineup, pitching seven shoutout innings and allowing 2 two hits. His improved sinker makes him a less likely candidate to allow the long ball, and should force a Reds lineup not built to manufacture runs to play that role. The Reds have struggled all year getting things going on the road. Zambrano’s downright dominance against right handed hitters, and past success against Dunn and Hattenberg leave the Reds little options.


Padres
Francis’s well documented winning streak has created value on the home team. Although he has pitched better of late, the main factor for his current run is run support, one of the most overrated variables in baseball handicapping. Two anemic offenses that have given Francis struggles throughout his career are the Padres and Giants, both whom have showed the ability to pick up his pitches well. During Francis’s hot streak, he has actually been getting hit hard, has been leaving the ball up, and his ground ball propensity has disappeared. Second half meltdowns are nothing new for Francis, who appears to be showing signs of yet another one. This does not bode well for the Rockies chances, as the Padres have the bullpen edge in the later innings of this game.

Maddux has been streaky all season, and appears to be in top form, having put forth four straight quality starts. His ability to keep the ball in the park, coupled with the spacious confines curtails the Rockies biggest edge in this game, which is their power.

Dodgers
The Dodgers have been dead money for quite some time, but I have no problem backing them when everyone else appears to have jumped ship. No lineup in baseball has struggled more than they have of late, but with Albers bouts of wildness and inability to pitch well on the road, should give the Dodgers exactly what they need- free passes that allows them to incorporate their speed into the outcome of games. Albers inconsistency has prevented him from living up to his potential so far, and his high pitch count per inning does not make him an ideal candidate to go past five. The Astros bullpen has struggled and underachieved all season, allowing the Dodgers to face some hittable pitchers throughout this game.

Another value creator in this game is Tomko’s home struggles, which defy fundamental logic, as being a notorious flyball pitcher; he should be helped out by his home park. He has been dominant pitching here throughout his career, and has always had one of the highest disparities between home and away productivity. In another words, his home struggles lack sustainability. Tomko has actually pitched well since the all star break, as teams have not been able to make the same contact that they were prior to the break. Known to get better as the season progresses, and it appears more than just randomness for his improved success on the mound. With the Astros not being the same team on the road, coupled with his past success against key veteran hitters, and Tomko should be able to put forth another quality start.


Blue Jays
Holliday has always been one of the more overvalued pitchers in baseball, but his off-season this year has actually made him an intriguing bet in a few of his recent home outings. Holliday has been solid since the break, while his past struggles against the Angels lack sustainability, as only one of their hitters come into today’s game hitting over .300 against him. This is also a game in which home field advantage is magnified, as both teams are far better in their own yard. Being backed by a solid yet underrated bullpen prevents the automatically assumed advantage the Angels posses in the later innings.

Saunders has pitched much worse than his ERA would indicate, and having allowed a home run in three straight games coupled with sub par pitching peripherals makes him prone to being overmatched against one of the most dangers home lineups against southpaws. Saunders has been more hittable in recent starts, while his “stuff” doesn’t appear to be fooling anybody. The Blue Jays last run starts tonight in this key series.



Rangers
This appears more of a letdown spot for Davies than a confidence booster after putting forth a dominant outing against as struggling Twins lineup last time out. Davies propensity to challenge hitters to often and his fly ball propensity makes him vulnerable against his Rangers lineup and in this park. Coming into today’s game with a career six plus road ERA and horrific peripherals, gives a Rangers lineup with several players fighting for jobs for next season an opportunity to make a statement.

Millwood’s season has been a bust, but expect him to have this game circled since his late July when this Royals team embarrassed him by putting up 9 in less than three. Aside from that embarrassing start, Millwood has actually pitched well of late, putting forth seven quality starts in his last nine. His recent pitching performances makes him ideal for this park, as he has not allowed a home run in 52 straight innings. Getting to avenge his last start against the Royals while being able to face them after they had to play a night game on get away day, gives him one more advantage to make a statement.



Marlins
Willis’s fastball this season has been more of a batting practice pitch than one you see in a real game. Having said that, I feel his nightmare season has been incorporated into his recent lines, and you could get him at a decent price, as you get to go against a hot DBacks team who has been overachieving and not the same on the road. Even during this season, Willis still has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball against left handed hitters, which should put Tracy on the bench, turn around Hudson where he is less dangerous, and force one of the DBacks right handers who have not had success against him in the past to step up. The Dbacks have struggled against southpaws this season despite having almost all their hitters bat from the right side.

Kim’s mechanics have regressed a bit of late while his season debut with the DBacks appeared to allow nerves to get the better end of him. Pitching against his former team makes him vulnerable to such yet again.
 

New member
Joined
Mar 12, 2007
Messages
493
Tokens
Glad to see the post and thanks for the write-ups!!!! lets make some :money8: :money8:
 

New member
Joined
Oct 16, 2006
Messages
115
Tokens
Sounds like a lot of :money8: :money8: or else a lot of :puppy: :puppy: :puppy: :puppy: !!!!
 

New member
Joined
Feb 16, 2007
Messages
22
Tokens
Welcome back!!! Although I hope you didnt just throw any games up cause we were bothering you...well im betting them all anyways cause you know a hell of a lot more than I do!!!!
 

New member
Joined
Jan 18, 2007
Messages
45
Tokens
Thanks Buffettgambler,

Always appreciated. Looking forward to more baseball profits and the NFL season to come.
 

New member
Joined
Mar 12, 2007
Messages
493
Tokens
5 out of 8! good job BG! thanks again n hopefully you will be posting wednesday :toast:
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,767
Messages
13,438,827
Members
99,337
Latest member
hbs_solutions
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com